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Trend Cycle Entry

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  • Post #41
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  • Jan 27, 2022 2:57pm Jan 27, 2022 2:57pm
  •  Tre.ville
  • | Joined Jul 2021 | Status: Junior Member | 2 Posts
Quoting WickedDaddy
Disliked
Thakri, No changes need to be made for application to any timeframe, so 4HR will work fine. Make sure you pay attention to the higher timeframe trend. It's always best to trade with the wind at your back. I do have a mental stop that I am comfortable with. It varies based on what is happening in the market. For example; if I have a trade running and some idiot politician says something to manipulate the market, I probably would not care. But if a sudden change to a country's financial position were to occur, I may get out of the trade (if it was...
Ignored
I love the mindset. That's is literally my view on the market. 2 year; 21 y/o trader here. I would love to try this analyzation in the future. Recently, I've found a gold mine myself that's comfortable like this.
 
 
  • Post #42
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  • Jan 27, 2022 3:04pm Jan 27, 2022 3:04pm
  •  WickedDaddy
  • Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Member | 107 Posts
Quoting jeedy
Disliked
First entry after reading through the thread. {image}
Ignored
There are a couple issues with this trade.

1. It seems you are not using HA candles. Conventional candles do not produce the proper response to the rule structure.

2. The 15 EMA is very close and perhaps intersecting the 50 SMA when the trade was taken. While this is not necessarily a problem every time, it does weaken the strength of the trade. Something to consider. Good separation strengthens the trade considerably.

Looking at the higher time frame (daily), I see that EURCHF has had a pretty good run downward and appears to have formed a base in the 1.0350 area. I would strongly consider that in my decision to short EURCHF at this time.
 
 
  • Post #43
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  • Jan 27, 2022 3:16pm Jan 27, 2022 3:16pm
  •  oohoo
  • | Joined Sep 2019 | Status: Member | 156 Posts
If it's OK for StochRSI to cross 20 when the candle turns the right colour, it could be a rules-based entry.
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  • Post #44
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  • Jan 27, 2022 3:39pm Jan 27, 2022 3:39pm
  •  jeedy
  • | Joined Jun 2017 | Status: Member | 43 Posts
Quoting WickedDaddy
Disliked
{quote} There are a couple issues with this trade. 1. It seems you are not using HA candles. Conventional candles do not produce the proper response to the rule structure. 2. The 15 EMA is very close and perhaps intersecting the 50 SMA when the trade was taken. While this is not necessarily a problem every time, it does weaken the strength of the trade. Something to consider. Good separation strengthens the trade considerably. Looking at the higher time frame (daily), I see that EURCHF has had a pretty good run downward and appears to have formed...
Ignored
Thanks for the update. Please is HA a candle stick pattern?
 
 
  • Post #45
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  • Jan 27, 2022 4:06pm Jan 27, 2022 4:06pm
  •  WickedDaddy
  • Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Member | 107 Posts
Quoting oohoo
Disliked
If it's OK for StochRSI to cross 20 when the candle turns the right colour, it could be a rules-based entry. {image}
Ignored
Absolutely and actually gives strength to the trade. I'm updating my first post because I failed to mention it.
 
 
  • Post #46
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  • Jan 27, 2022 4:07pm Jan 27, 2022 4:07pm
  •  WickedDaddy
  • Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Member | 107 Posts
Quoting jeedy
Disliked
{quote} Thanks for the update. Please is HA a candle stick pattern?
Ignored
HA = Heikin Ashi

It's a variation of the Japanese candlestick.
 
 
  • Post #47
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  • Jan 27, 2022 4:12pm Jan 27, 2022 4:12pm
  •  WickedDaddy
  • Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Member | 107 Posts
Quoting Tre.ville
Disliked
{quote} I love the mindset. That's is literally my view on the market. 2 year; 21 y/o trader here. I would love to try this analyzation in the future. Recently, I've found a gold mine myself that's comfortable like this.
Ignored
Thanks for making that your first post at Forex Factory. Welcome.

Everyone loves a goldmine. You should start a discussion on it so others can learn.
 
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  • Mpfreefx
  • Post #49
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  • Jan 27, 2022 8:02pm Jan 27, 2022 8:02pm
  •  THA58
  • | Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Member | 22 Posts
Another trade this week....
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  • Post #50
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  • Jan 28, 2022 3:47am Jan 28, 2022 3:47am
  •  jeedy
  • | Joined Jun 2017 | Status: Member | 43 Posts
Took this trade. Please @WickedDaddy confirm if my entry is okay with the strategy. Thanks
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  • Post #51
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  • Jan 28, 2022 9:52am Jan 28, 2022 9:52am
  •  WickedDaddy
  • Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Member | 107 Posts
Quoting THA58
Disliked
Another trade this week.... {image}
Ignored
Looks like you're in profit this morning. Nice!

Another one of my rules... has nothing to do with this method and applies to everything:

I don't hold trades over the weekend.
 
1
  • Post #52
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  • Jan 28, 2022 9:56am Jan 28, 2022 9:56am
  •  WickedDaddy
  • Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Member | 107 Posts
Quoting jeedy
Disliked
Took this trade. Please @WickedDaddy confirm if my entry is okay with the strategy. Thanks {image}
Ignored
Yes, it looks good and as of this post, is in profit.

I don't hold trades over the weekend. But that's me...
 
1
  • Post #53
  • Quote
  • Jan 28, 2022 2:43pm Jan 28, 2022 2:43pm
  •  WickedDaddy
  • Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Member | 107 Posts
There have been a few requests for how to apply this strategy to shorter timeframes. So here we go...

First, the core rules have not changed. See Post #1 for those.

The shortest TF I will trade is 1HR. Thus, I have included a 1HR chart below with some trade examples in it. Anything shorter is noise and I'm too laid back to stare at 1 minute charts, getting in and out of 2-3 pip trades until my eyes bleed.

For trend reference, I add a 100 SMA (yellow) and a 200 SMA (red) to the chart. The only purpose of these is to provide trend reference. Think of them like a traffic signal: the green 50 SMA completes the picture of "go", "caution" and "stop".

A Note:
Most of the professional institutional traders that I know use a 1HR chart to determine entry. They use a daily to determine what they want to be in and generally when, then use a 1HR to determine actual entry when making investment decisions. The only purpose of this is an attempt to have the investment producing results immediately. Clients get frustrated when you buy a large chunk of something and it immediately goes negative. So the goal is to build immediate confidence in the investment decision. It can fluctuate later and clients will generally understand if it started out well.

I digress...

You will also notice the yellow line in the pane above the StochasticRSI. That is a 34 SMA of a 13 RSI. Some of you may be familiar with Dean Malone's Trader's Dynamic Index (TDI). This is a piece of that: the 34 SMA of the underling 13 RSI. I noticed some years ago that it crossed its 50% line almost in sync with my 15 EMA/50 SMA cross. Actually, a little afterward. I don't really use it anymore but it does provide a level of confirmation. In earlier years, as I was developing my method, it provided an additional feeling of confidence. I don't have rules around using it. I have actually removed the MAs in the chart and only used this hybrid TDI as my guide and it works well. So the choice is yours.

I have placed a white box around each cross of the 15 EMA/50SMA. The arrow that follows points to the trigger candle that has changed color after the one(s) before it intersected and possibly disengaged from the BB. Often the color changed candle is also the disengagement candle and that is fine.

Remember that one of the rules of the trade is the FIRST retrace cycle only. Second and third cycles are an option but those are more risky and that's up to you. Are you a gambler or a sniper? Do you notice the 3rd cycle after the cross down? Tempting with 3 triggers occurring. That one would have been frustrating and while it ultimately produced, I don't have that kind of patience when it comes profit production. Know thyself.

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  • Post #54
  • Quote
  • Jan 29, 2022 4:03am Jan 29, 2022 4:03am
  •  THA58
  • | Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Member | 22 Posts
Quoting WickedDaddy
Disliked
{quote} Looks like you're in profit this morning. Nice! Another one of my rules... has nothing to do with this method and applies to everything: I don't hold trades over the weekend.
Ignored

aaaah......ok...thank you will do
 
 
  • Post #55
  • Quote
  • Jan 30, 2022 6:30am Jan 30, 2022 6:30am
  •  idiamond
  • Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Member | 61 Posts
Quoting WickedDaddy
Disliked
{quote} I don't hold trades over the weekend. But that's me...
Ignored
How do you get large gains, as shown in the first post using a daily time-frame, if you don't hold trades over the weekend? Do you close and re-enter, or something else?
 
1
  • Post #56
  • Quote
  • Jan 30, 2022 8:55am Jan 30, 2022 8:55am
  •  livetolove03
  • | Joined Apr 2021 | Status: Member | 45 Posts
Quoting WickedDaddy
Disliked
So many years away and now returning as a mature trader. I read a couple of my old posts/replies and realize the journey. In my time away, I developed various systems, turned charts into bowls of spaghetti and traded naked charts as well. I developed intricate indicators that use the same data every indicator uses - price and time. I failed, I learned, I failed, I learned. I stopped failing. After a period of success and at the request of friends, I jumped through all the government and financial regulatory hoops and founded an alternative investment...
Ignored
Hi WickedDaddy,
Thank you for your sharing.
It seems be not much set up for Daily TF. How many trade you get per month and risk per trade?
When I back test, I only get about 6 trades per year for E/U pair.
 
 
  • Post #57
  • Quote
  • Jan 30, 2022 9:52am Jan 30, 2022 9:52am
  •  katienotcat
  • Joined Jan 2022 | Status: Member | 108 Posts
Thank you for sharing. Planning to try。
 
 
  • Post #58
  • Quote
  • Jan 30, 2022 11:03am Jan 30, 2022 11:03am
  •  WickedDaddy
  • Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Member | 107 Posts
Quoting idiamond
Disliked
{quote} How do you get large gains, as shown in the first post using a daily time-frame, if you don't hold trades over the weekend? Do you close and re-enter, or something else?
Ignored
Exactly. I exit on a 1 HR chart on a Friday, sometimes Thursday if I'm taking Friday off or it will be NFP, etc. Then I re-enter on Monday morning or set an entry to trigger during the London open if I think I can get a better price for my continuation.
 
2
  • Post #59
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:32am Jan 30, 2022 11:13am | Edited 11:32am
  •  WickedDaddy
  • Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Member | 107 Posts
Quoting livetolove03
Disliked
{quote} Hi WickedDaddy, Thank you for your sharing. It seems be not much set up for Daily TF. How many trade you get per month and risk per trade? When I back test, I only get about 6 trades per year for E/U pair.
Ignored
True, My daily TF trades are few, but I hold them for their extended trends and often add to them as they retrace during the trend. I only trade 3 pairs: EU, AU, and UJ. I choose these based on their direction. When USD is strong, I short EU and long UJ. When dollar is weak, I long AU. This is to take advantage of the carry. Why not get paid to hold a trade open? Ha ha.

These are the trades that pay big and I have large sums invested. They are the core of my income. I think it better to focus expertise on as few things as possible. That way, each get an effective level of concentration and higher level of expertise is gained. During decent trends, I can expect a trade or two a month and hold it for 2 to 3 weeks, then maybe no big trade for a month. In choppy markets, I take more trades but hold them shorter and I also adjust my entry and exit rules accordingly. Keep in mind, I created this system for myself and I have traded it for many years. So I can bend the rules because I've learned when and when not to do so. For those starting out (and this is true with any method) it's best to follow the rules exactly until you get a feel for it.

My only risk rule is how many lots I trade per available cash. Being in the U.S. and having 50:1 margin means that rule designates approximately 12% of available cash to any one trade. I don't use stop loss orders other than trailing stops that are in profit. I have mental stops that if hit, I will close the trade manually. That said, I have no problem applying a Martingale technique to a trade because I still have plenty of available cash. I don't suggest that for inexperienced traders and have very rarely done it myself, but that technique has worked very well for me in the few instances where I deduced that my timing was too early and so I build the trade as it goes against me. Then let it cycle in my direction for an overall profit. Large institutions do this as a matter of general practice. But they can because they have the cash on hand to do so.

I also trade shorter time frames in a separate account so that I can take generate "living" cash - for the normal expenses of daily life, and fun of course.

Trading is my only income and has been since 2014.
 
5
  • Post #60
  • Quote
  • Jan 30, 2022 2:03pm Jan 30, 2022 2:03pm
  •  Xxyy
  • | Joined Jun 2018 | Status: Member | 69 Posts
Quoting WickedDaddy
Disliked
{quote} I have an alert set in Trading View that tells me when the 15 has crossed the 50. Sends me a text. I have other alerts that tell me when the candles have disengaged from the BB, HA color change, etc. These allow me to know what is going on without having to be in front of charts. Profitability is a matter of trade exit. Each trade is unique so I determine the exit based on the conditions at the time. But for what it's worth, I have not had a losing trade with this method since I finalized my rule base and executed it[/highlight]...
Ignored

Just curious how many trades you took in the past several years using this method, dozens, hundreds?
 
 
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