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The Swamp

  • #94,781
  • Jan 25, 2022 5:58pm Jan 25, 2022 5:58pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} It looks Like a good day to sell again. 2 days left of selling I saw something of ADR today is a good day for it?
I'm on the sideline mostly. I know most of us are thinking drop. I will do little. I may place some pending shorts higher and wait for the reaction. I definitely dont know what will happen. I dont fool myself with the unknown. What i do know in a provable form. The year quarter month week all closed above 1331. To me there is always a chance for a nice bounce until 1331 1208 1185 and maybe even 1130 has a month close below them.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,782
  • Jan 26, 2022 3:21am Jan 26, 2022 3:21am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Hell i didnt know. Your FF date is 2019, I figured you picked it up somewhere else. I know it had a high % chance of reaching 1298, and a 55% chance of 1330. about 33% chance of 1372, before 1230
I assure you that the gentle folks that steal other people's work won't call it motherfuckers.
If you know the reverse chances, as in 1230 before 1372, you can construct a nice a little weighted hedge that gives you guaranteed returns.
  • #94,783
  • Jan 26, 2022 5:33am Jan 26, 2022 5:33am
Shorting here with tight stop.. let see how far bears can push down today.. day range low 1246 area...watch day uptrend stop 1254
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  • #94,784
  • Jan 26, 2022 5:38am Jan 26, 2022 5:38am
Quoting Boulder
Shorting here with tight stop.. let see how far bears can push down today.. day range low 1246 area...watch day uptrend stop 1254 {image}
with shorter timeframes...M5 runs overtime.. that will be my short stop .
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  • #94,785
  • Jan 26, 2022 5:54am Jan 26, 2022 5:54am
Quoting xav
{quote} I assure you that the gentle folks that steal other people's work won't call it motherfuckers. If you know the reverse chances, as in 1230 before 1372, you can construct a nice a little weighted hedge that gives you guaranteed returns.
That little spot has a story behind it. When your betting with your position. Price will go here, and all looks beautiful. Price is doing exactly what your were thinking. Then price hits that spot. And reverses on you. You say mother phucker. What the hell happened? That's how it earned the name.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,786
  • Jan 26, 2022 6:53am Jan 26, 2022 6:53am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} with shorter timeframes...M5 runs overtime.. that will be my short stop . {image}
Done shorting.. start to long Eur for quick scalp... stop loss 1276 area
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  • #94,787
  • Edited 7:55am Jan 26, 2022 7:43am | Edited 7:55am
FOMC release will change this.. Lots of S 1230/1130. Heavy open volume interest at 1242. Some more at 132x/4x.. The support under 1242 like 1208 and 117x could push it back above that interest. The thing about that upper spot is its inline, It will hold it about the same spot at 1331ish. Both the interest and the R is in the same spot. But if it dont hold there. And price gets above both interest and 1331. It has a decent chance of taking off. Water will flow where the it is less resisted. Money will go where less resisted. If pa finds itself below 1208 and 117x. It may not recover since its below 1242 also. The same with pa above 134x. Either area may cause that whipsaw effect.
Pa testing 12h BB atm. Day is near at 125x.
The bears may have a long day breaking below 12h and day BB support. That interest piled up at 1242 will probably dissolve with a close below 1208 and or 117x. The interest at 133x would move lower and gain strength. Bears have 2 spots of R interest. The first in the 133x area is the weaker, The second 18xx. Eventually the drop should come. I just dont know if the lower area will break or bounce. The interest at 1242 looks decent. That interest may push prices higher. Unless FOMC can break it, and close the month below 1208 and probably 117x. If pa ends today above 1331 1369.. You better not short till it tires.

5 plus hs till nfp. Some chop to be expected.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,788
  • Jan 26, 2022 7:52am Jan 26, 2022 7:52am
Quoting gatorinla
FOMC release will change this.. Lots of S 1230/1130. Heavy open volume interest at 1242. Some more at 132x/4x.. The support under 1242 like 1208 and 118x could push it back above that interest. The thing about that upper spot is its inline, It will hold it about the same spot at 1331ish. Both the interest and the R is in the same spot. But if it dont hold there. And price gets above both interest and 1331. It has a decent chance of taking off. Water will flow where the it is less resisted. Money will go where less resisted. If pa finds itself below...
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,789
  • Jan 26, 2022 8:05am Jan 26, 2022 8:05am
Quoting gatorinla
FOMC release will change this.. Lots of S 1230/1130. Heavy open volume interest at 1242. Some more at 132x/4x.. The support under 1242 like 1208 and 117x could push it back above that interest. The thing about that upper spot is its inline, It will hold it about the same spot at 1331ish. Both the interest and the R is in the same spot. But if it dont hold there. And price gets above both interest and 1331. It has a decent chance of taking off. Water will flow where the it is less resisted. Money will go where less resisted. If pa finds itself below...
It's rare for that 117x number to give up on the first try. Its a month number. So the bounce may be large. I can't say what will happen in the future. It hasn't been touched yet. The 12h and day is inline with 117x. I sit on the side watching. The open interest at 1242 along with 1208. The 12h and day have me hibernating till I see my shadow. Cot got a little less usd longs and more shorts. They seem to be using some caution also,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,790
  • Jan 26, 2022 8:41am Jan 26, 2022 8:41am
Gator give me this money.
Just went long 1.1294.
TP 1.1430.

Just an ambitious trade.
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  • #94,791
  • Jan 26, 2022 10:10am Jan 26, 2022 10:10am
Quoting Mitiblotch
Gator give me this money. Just went long 1.1294. TP 1.1430. Just an ambitious trade. {image}
Nothing to do with me.. They look to raise. Is it priced in, or not? That year close leads me to believe it may be. If so, it may bounce. Not reverse the downtrend. Just hit some R before continuation lower. I see some interest in 3131/40. Show (post a pic) us your profile for week, and 1 month. i'm thinking pa above 1331 could take out 1366/69. From there maybe 143x and 1447.

I know norm is at 1767. So 1547 or 1726 is more possible.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,792
  • Jan 26, 2022 10:29am Jan 26, 2022 10:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} That little spot has a story behind it. When your betting with your position. Price will go here, and all looks beautiful. Price is doing exactly what your were thinking. Then price hits that spot. And reverses on you. You say mother phucker. What the hell happened? That's how it earned the name.
Little Mofu affecting the Dow..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,793
  • Jan 26, 2022 10:41am Jan 26, 2022 10:41am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} after {image} before {image}
Before and after. Another Mofu 34827.15 on DJI.. But it may be attracted to the blue one above. 35051. The thick red line has plus the mofu has it as a potential top.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,794
  • Jan 26, 2022 11:06am Jan 26, 2022 11:06am
Quoting Mitiblotch
Gator give me this money. Just went long 1.1294. TP 1.1430. Just an ambitious trade. {image}
what's the name of that volume indi in tradersview?..??
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,795
  • Jan 26, 2022 11:14am Jan 26, 2022 11:14am
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,796
  • Jan 26, 2022 12:04pm Jan 26, 2022 12:04pm
FOMC in less than 1h.. Followed 30 min later presser after. Press C may be a mover. Unbunch those panties.

The direction may take pa to March. Bears need to do this, or 17xx /1800 has a shot.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,797
  • Jan 26, 2022 12:52pm Jan 26, 2022 12:52pm
been busy today
got my popcorn ready

let's go !
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,798
  • Jan 26, 2022 12:57pm Jan 26, 2022 12:57pm
Quoting DMA Trader
been busy today got my popcorn ready let's go ! {image}
Its getting salty in here!
  • #94,799
  • Jan 26, 2022 1:16pm Jan 26, 2022 1:16pm
Quoting DMA Trader
been busy today got my popcorn ready let's go ! {image}
so 2 thing
FED did not say anything about balance sheet good for stocks
but did remove the line of tools to support the economy

if he touches this subjects on the conference call is bad for stocks

dollar lower because so far FED is not hawkish

yileds higher.

FED needs to give clead dot plot on the conference. if not i think is bad for the market

with all this crash on indices market i think markets can take higher then FED said

So - strange - but probably Powel will talk about it - Also Crude oil new high - not good
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,800
  • Jan 26, 2022 1:18pm Jan 26, 2022 1:18pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} so 2 thing FED did not say anything about balance sheet good for stocks but did remove the line of tools to support the economy if he touches this subjects on the conference call is bad for stocks dollar lower because so far FED is not hawkish yileds higher. FED needs to give clead dot plot on the conference. if not i think is bad for the market with all this crash on indices market i think markets can take higher then FED said So - strange - but probably Powel will talk about it - Also Crude oil new high - not good
i cannot find the line on bloomberg on what Steve liesman CNBC talking about FED balance sheet but this is bad. i understand was a separate statement so reason why stocks went down

support at 1H

that line may have fooled also EUR/USD if true still cannot find it

10Yy - 1.8

above 1.9 i would not go long stocks or eur.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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