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How to create a trading strategy

  • #41
  • Edited 5:21am Aug 15, 2020 5:01am | Edited 5:21am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Nice.. are you trading this strategy already? If you are then you must be the most accomplished trader I have run into. Wow what a rare honour for me. Which pairs r u trading? Any chance to showcase your fantastic skill by making some live calls? Would be a real knock out for me man. Pls the floor is all yours Cheers
There is no one strategy, besides not all strategies fit for all traders. Whether a strategy works for one it does not implies it will work for the rest.

I just took randomly one link from Google results after searching "best tested trading strategies". I don't know if any of these work, nor have even read them:

https://admiralmarkets.com/education...gies-that-work

Do you want to learn to trade? Check one by one these strategies using historical data of your charts, using paper trading, every opportunity given for each and see if they would have been profitable or not. If any of these works on paper, demo it for a few weeks or months till you master it. That is the way you want to follow to learn to trade: research, find, test, validate, reevaluate and select or discard.

Do you want a ready-to-trade step by step manual? This is not the thread.
  • #42
  • Sep 7, 2020 12:48am Sep 7, 2020 12:48am
Before you start with real trading, it is always better to have your trading strategy prepared. The following steps make an efficient plan to follow for trading:

  1. - Choose a relevant market to trade
  2. - Select the time frame for your trading
  3. - Keep a check on the trends through some effective tools
  4. - Know your entry and exit trigger
  5. - Define the risks and rules
  6. - Backtest the strategy for trading you are going to follow

  • #43
  • Jan 24, 2022 1:03am Jan 24, 2022 1:03am
Quoting simplemint
the market goes up......... and then it goes down. and all you need to know this is your eyes...............do you need elliot wave to tell you it is going up? or down?.....or do you need macd? or volume? do you need a strategy? if it going up, do you sell or buy?.............this is a very difficult question.....is it not ? maybe you should read books by Brooks-he has written 4- or pay 50000 usd to James for personal mentoring........ actually that is exactly what i did for 30 years...........because it is such a difficult question. this has cost...
I sailed in same boat . NOW it is Mind and Machines in play. Mind locates sideways environment following the trails of Outliers of different sizes and getS involved into the aftermath OR at distribution stage for quick entries and exits using constant (not martingale) lots. MACHINE is a automated grid trader EA. Recovered Glasses full of losses by collecting drops.

Who says Patience and perseverance do not pay?
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #44
  • Jan 24, 2022 2:02am Jan 24, 2022 2:02am
Quoting simplemint
the market goes up......... and then it goes down. and all you need to know this is your eyes...............do you need elliot wave to tell you it is going up? or down?.....or do you need macd? or volume? do you need a strategy? if it going up, do you sell or buy?.............this is a very difficult question.....is it not ? maybe you should read books by Brooks-he has written 4- or pay 50000 usd to James for personal mentoring........ actually that is exactly what i did for 30 years...........because it is such a difficult question. this has cost...
30 years... 200k lost... on average ~6000 usd per year lost. but because of inflation, this is much more $ lost.. and time lost... what a disaster. no offense... just sad to see that

For all the rest people here - you must have minimum 2 skills:

1) Education (graduated a University) in math - probabilities/statistics etc

2) Good coding knowledge

If do not have at least those 2 skills then you do not qualify for trading. You cant trade without properly made quantitative data analysis. Even if you hate automated trading you need EAs to analyze data before you jump into real trading. And you need a lot of running strategies simultaneously... not doable with manual trading. Too much data to analyze.. on paper? common...
  • #45
  • Jan 24, 2022 3:48am Jan 24, 2022 3:48am
Quoting gepards
{quote} 30 years... 200k lost... on average ~6000 usd per year lost. but because of inflation, this is much more $ lost.. and time lost... what a disaster. no offense... just sad to see that For all the rest people here - you must have minimum 2 skills: 1) Education (graduated a University) in math - probabilities/statistics etc 2) Good coding knowledge If do not have at least those 2 skills then you do not qualify for trading. You cant trade without properly made quantitative data analysis. Even if you hate automated trading...
Not everyone has 200K for gambling otherwise your advise is useless
POSTMASTER
  • #46
  • Jan 24, 2022 3:57am Jan 24, 2022 3:57am
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} Not everyone has 200K for gambling otherwise your advise is useless
why do you think my advice is useless?
  • #47
  • Jan 24, 2022 4:12am Jan 24, 2022 4:12am
Quoting gepards
{quote} why do you think my advice is useless?
99,99% lose
POSTMASTER
  • #48
  • Jan 24, 2022 4:15am Jan 24, 2022 4:15am
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} 99,99% lose
0,01% is the corporation running the whole system. Powerful algo with all the insicĄde information. Your account and positions as well as mine. We went to the moon in the 60s last century. I yet have to see a single trader winning for one only year not to mention more time. Prove me wrong by showing this trader to me with evidence. I have said and done at this thread, just wanted truth to preveal. Bye
POSTMASTER
  • #49
  • Jan 24, 2022 4:36am Jan 24, 2022 4:36am
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} 0,01% is the corporation running the whole system. Powerful algo with all the insicĄde information. Your account and positions as well as mine. We went to the moon in the 60s last century. I yet have to see a single trader winning for one only year not to mention more time. Prove me wrong by showing this trader to me with evidence. I have said and done at this thread, just wanted truth to preveal. Bye
you already wrote hints - do something similar as big banks and hedges do. From your statement can be pointed out this:

1) "running the whole system" - at least 100 EAs running simultaneously on n accounts
2) "powerful algo" - again EAs

You see no manual trader can fight with algos. You have to have an army with algos... 100 is minimum. Diversify capital versys n EAs with various strategies. Because each 1 strategy fluctuates in longterm - it sometimes "works" and sometimes "stop working".. therefore portfolio with EAs needed to compensate. And do no expect more than 20-30% yearly profits (but consistent). Diversify, calculate risks, make portfolious. There are science how to make portfolios - have read 1 book regarding stocks portfolios making written by university professor working in some banking sector. Each EA is like "asset" itself. Sometimes it is profitable and sometimes not. Then learn about fluctuations, patterns, probabilities distributions (not of prices... but of EAs profitability). Then construct an ecosystem with balanced EAs. And keep in mind - you maybe can build 1 ecosystem with 100 EAs.. but banks etc have n such ecosystems because that is another layer how to make portfolios of portfolios.

Without 2 skills I mentioned previously this is not doable. I agree with you that manual trading is just gambling and 99% will lose. And those who bet on 1 magical EA will lose too - this is not working like that.

Here you can see 1 my EA (have a bunch of them and continue to grow my ecosystem) results so far - running more than 1 year now:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_so_far_now.png Size: 78 KB
  • #50
  • Jan 24, 2022 7:59am Jan 24, 2022 7:59am
Here is an example of what it is to work with a portfolio of EAs (just an example/insight).

Have simple 1 EA working with RSI indicator (YES, all blamed indicator).

Run optimizations for years 2010 - 2020 and then forward tests from 2020 - 2022 - this all is posible because of MT5 strategy testing feature where you can simulate unknown future to ensure that your EA setups found in optimizations is not over-optimized.

Idea is this - you take ALL various setups from 2010 - 2020 where recovery factor for example > 3 (from your choice for me 3 is good).

And run them all with real money - so you have dozens of EA instances running. With forwarding tests, we can see "how it would be" if we run this with real money.

And here results of 44 EAs instances (actually we have more but not all gave signals in last 2 years):

-22.93
-19.71
79.19
-2.48
-9.18
4.04
-0.21
-4.69
26.80
-15.94
-14.03
-11.71
-22.63
-15.60
6.19
4.93
8.10
5.48
-7.21
-12.96
-2.70
-0.21
-6.24
10.65
-1.75
27.92
4.57
6.18
18.79
-14.03
0.53
-3.99
-2.19
-1.16
-3.99
11.91
-45.59
75.55
-1.79
12.68
-1.75
-12.50
1.72
-18.79

----
total: +29 USD profit

In my example I actually run each EA instance only when it have a particular (optimized value) dd with virtual money (some kind of "buy dips" for EA balance line). And still, you see not all EAs are profitable (off course, because of fluctuations).

But if you took just 1 EA setup and bet all money on it - you can easily lose.

In order to unsderstand total DD of all EAs runing you need to aggregate all EAs backtests results in 1 single data set and calculate total DD. Then you can run on real account with calculated capital in order to have no more than 20% dd.

And this banks and hedges do with thousands EAs instances (even not using MT5 platforms but custom made). Just ilustrate for you what kind of analytic work it is. Because here I just did very simple without other considerations. For example why take >3 and why take TOP optimized if we know about overoptimization issue. You run thousands tests before get 1 portfolio with EAs.
  • #51
  • Last Post: Feb 7, 2022 10:07am Feb 7, 2022 10:07am
To start you can try to copy the most popular trading strategies, in the future you will somehow improve them and create your own.
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