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Gold, Elliot Wave Analysis

The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which the first entry wave 1 of (5) formed, the correctional wave 2 of (5) developed, and the wave 3 of (5) forms. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of 3 is developing, within which a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of i, and the fifth wave (v) of i is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow within the wave to the levels of 1919.90–2067.60. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1752.82.

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McDonald’s Corp. Elliot Wave Analysis

The price may rise.
On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) is developing, as part of which the wave 3 of (5) continues forming. At the moment, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 is developing, as part of which wave (iii) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will rise in wave (iii) of iii to 280.00–295.00. The level of 244.07 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

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GBP/USD
The pound is developing flat dynamics

Current trend
The pound is traded in different directions against the US currency during the morning session, consolidating near 1.3600 and local lows from January 18.

The US dollar is actively recovering its positions at the end of the week; however, its growth is limited by not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from the US. Disappointing data came out the day before, reflecting an increase in the number of Initial Jobless Claims from 231K to 286K, while analysts expected a further decrease in the figure to 220K. The number of Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended January 7 increased from 1.551M to 1.635M, which also turned out to be worse than preliminary market estimates at 1.58M.

Today, investors are waiting for the publication of December data on the dynamics of Retail Sales in the UK. Analysts' forecasts, however, do not promise any support for the pound, and therefore the corrective sentiment in the asset may develop further.

Support and resistance
On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing into a horizontal plane. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the appearance of mixed dynamics of trading in the short and ultra-short term. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its lows, is trying to reverse into a horizontal plane, indicating risks of an oversold pound in the ultra-short term. Under these conditions, trading participants should look at the possibility of the appearance of corrective dynamics for the instrument in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800.
Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3460.

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AUD/USD
The Australian dollar ends the week with flat dynamics

Current trend
The Australian dollar, thanks to the active actions of the “bears”, is losing ground at the end of the current trading week, testing the level of 0.7200 for a breakdown. AUD/USD pair is losing ground and moving into the “red” zone, despite the fact that there are not many fundamental reasons for the growth of the American currency. The data released the day before from the US failed to support the “bullish” sentiment of investors in the US currency, neither within the data on Initial Jobless Claims, nor on the statistics of Existing Home Sales.

In turn, on Thursday, the Australian dollar managed to enlist fairly strong support from market participants after the publication of a strong report on the Australian labor market for December. The Employment Change increased by 64.8K jobs, which turned out to be significantly better than market expectations of 30K jobs. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in the country in December fell to new record lows at around 4.2%, although analysts' forecasts suggested a decline from only 4.6% to 4.5%.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands show flat dynamics. The price range remains virtually unchanged, remaining spacious enough for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is stretching into a line along the zero level, signaling an approximate balance of power between sellers and buyers in the short term. Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards, near the level of “20” and indicating the continuation of the “bullish” momentum since the middle of the week.

Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7300, 0.7328, 0.7369.
Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7160, 0.7128, 0.7100.

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USD/CAD
Negative trend in the US labor market intensifies

Current trend
The Canadian currency continues to resist the growth of the US dollar quite successfully, and USD/CAD has been relatively neutral throughout the current trading week. The instrument demonstrates local lateral dynamics against the background of the publication of economic statistics from Canada and is located in the area of 1.2522.

The key inflation indicator, the Consumer Price Index, remained at the level of 4.8% in December, having fallen by 0.1% compared to the November indicator; however, the Core CPI showed an increase to 4.0% in annual terms, which reflects high net consumer demand within the country, signaling the active pace of economic recovery in this direction. Statistics on the volume of Wholesale Sales also turned out to be positive: the indicator increased by 3.5% against the forecast of 2.7%. In general, one can already observe a slowdown in inflation, which indicates the effectiveness of the actions of the Bank of Canada in the field of monetary policy.

American investors expect decisive action from the US Federal Reserve as well, as annual inflation in the country has reached its highest level in almost 40 years, but many experts doubt that the tightening of monetary policy will have a positive impact, given the maximum amount of economic stimulus introduced by the authorities during the pandemic. In addition, since the beginning of the year, a negative trend has been observed in the national labor market, where an increase in jobless claims is observed. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 286K from 231K a week earlier, according to data yesterday, beating economists' expectations of 220K. Continuing Jobless Claims increased to 1.635M, well above last week's 1.551M and putting quite a bit of pressure on the US dollar.

Support and resistance
On the global chart of the asset, the price has finished working out the Head and Shoulders pattern and is ready to fix it with a reverse retest of the Neckline. Technical indicators are in a global sell signal state: the EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator is still quite wide, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming up bars, hinting at a possible correction.

Support levels: 1.2467, 1.2315.
Resistance levels: 1.2556, 1.2637.

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EUR/USD
The dollar continues to dominate the pair

Current trend
Quotes of EUR/USD are being corrected, trading around 1.1322 after updating of the local lows of January 10 yesterday. The European currency continues unsuccessful attempts to consolidate in the uptrend, but the growth of quotations is hindered by weak macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone, which once again pointed to record inflation rates in the region.

According to published data, in December, the growth of consumer prices in annual terms reached 5.0%, while the monthly rate was fixed at 0.4%. Representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to assure that the current situation is the result of high energy prices, and the indicator of the Core Consumer Price Index, which does not include this category of goods, indirectly confirms this, remaining at the level of 2.6%. For this reason, the regulator is in no hurry to adjust the parameters of monetary policy and, in particular, to raise interest rates, limiting itself only to curtailing the asset purchase program (PEPP) until the end of March, which undoubtedly hinders the growth of the euro.

In the meantime, the US currency cannot decide on the priority direction of movement. On the one hand, investors hope for the beginning of a cycle of raising interest rates, and on the other hand, the labor market is again actively declining. According to statistics, the number of Initial Jobless Claims increased by 55K, amounting to 286K against 220K expected by analysts. It is also alarming that the negative dynamics have been observed for the fourth week in a row.

Support and resistance
Despite all attempts to grow, EUR/USD remains within the framework of the global Flag pattern, the implementation of which has not yet begun. The EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator narrowed almost completely, and the AO oscillator histogram began to form descending bars again.

Support levels: 1.1271, 1.1050.
Resistance levels: 1.1378, 1.1525.

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GBP/USD, the "bearish" momentum intensifies

Current trend
The British pound remains under pressure due to the difficult epidemiological situation in the country and poor macroeconomic data, and the GBP/USD pair may continue to decline towards the 1.3418–1.3365 area. Thus, Composite PMI in industry and services in the UK fell to 53.4 points from 53.6 points a month earlier, while analysts expected the index to rise to 55.0 points.

The long-term trend in the GBP/USD pair is downwards. After the breakdown of 1.3610, the rate decreases to 1.3418–1.3365. If this area is broken, further development of negative dynamics to the lows of December 2021 is possible.

The medium-term trend remains upwards. A correction is developing within its trend, the target of which is to test the key support at 1.3405–1.3370, after which new purchases can be considered with the target at the year's high.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.3610, 1.3710, 1.3820.
Support levels: 1.3418, 1.3365, 1.3200.

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NZD/USD
New Zealand Dollar under pandemic pressure

Current trend
This week, the NZD/USD pair continued to decline and reached three-month lows around 0.6645. The decline in the trading instrument is due to two main factors: the expectation of a serious tightening of monetary policy by the US Fed and the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in New Zealand.
In general, the country's economy is recovering moderately, as evidenced by December statistics: retail sales increased by 0.4%, and the business activity index in the manufacturing sector increased from 50.6 to 53.7 points, but in the near future it may be under pressure due to the increase in the incidence of the COVID-19 Omicron strain. Since Sunday, new quarantine restrictions have come into force, a mask regime is being introduced, and the work of public institutions is limited. These measures may create pressure on the service sector and slow down the economic recovery.

The USD now looks preferable to its New Zealand competitor, as investors expect decisive action from the US Fed. The agency may announce plans to adjust monetary policy during a two-day meeting of the regulator on Wednesday. Experts believe that a serious increase in inflation may cause tougher actions by officials, and they will raise the rate more than four times in 2022. At the same time, it is unlikely that the current downturn in the stock markets will force the agency to soften its position. In these conditions, prerequisites are being created for the further strengthening of the USD against alternative assets.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 0.6780, 0.6835, 0.6958.
Support levels: 0.6592, 0.6500.

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Ripple Technical analysis

Current trend
The XRP/USD pair continues to trade within a long-term downward channel.

Last week, the token price dropped to the area of 0.5859, where it is now consolidating. The breakdown of this level allows further decline to the levels of 0.4883 and 0.3906. The key “bullish” area is the resistance zone of 0.7812–0.75. Its breakout allows growth to the levels of 0.91 and 0.9766.

In general, the downward trend in the market continues, which is confirmed by a downward reversal of Bollinger bands and an increase in the MACD histogram in the negative zone. However, the upward reversal of Stochastic from the oversold zone does not exclude a corrective growth of the Ripple to the area of 0.75 but is unlikely to break the current downtrend.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 0.75, 0.7812, 0.91, 0.9766.
Support levels: 0.5859, 0.4883, 0.3906.

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EUR/USD
US Fed meeting results determine the dynamics of the pair

Current trend
This week, the EUR/USD pair actively fell due to the strengthening of the American currency, currently trading around 1.129.

The dollar is rising as investors await the outcome of the first meeting of the US Federal Reserve this year, which will end today. It is predicted that officials of the department will leave the rate at the same level in January but will announce their readiness to raise it in March. Most experts believe that to combat inflation, which was fixed at 7.0% for December, the regulator may need four or more adjustments this year. Another issue will be the reduction of the department's balance sheet, which has more than doubled during the pandemic. Most likely, the process will be launched as early as May or June after completing the emergency asset purchase program. In general, the market is tuned to the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve, which, in turn, should contribute to further strengthening of the US currency but may create additional pressure on the stock market.

Support and resistance
The consolidation below 1.1290 allows the EUR/USD pair to decrease to 1.1230 - 1.1185 . The key "bullish" level is 1.1350, Fibonacci correction, 23.6%, the middle line of Bollinger bands, which breakout will become a catalyst for upward dynamics to the area of 1.1470 , Fibonacci correction 38 .2%. The indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are horizontal, the MACD histogram is near the zero line, its volumes are insignificant, and Stochastic reverses upwards.

Resistance levels: 1.1350, 1.1413, 1.1475.
Support levels: 1.1290, 1.1230, 1.1185.

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USD/CAD
Decline under pressure from rising oil prices

Current trend
After the USD/CAD pair couldn't break the resistance level of 1.2650, it resumed its downward dynamics to 1.2500. The pressure on the asset is exerted by the growth of quotations for WTI Crude Oil, which reached $86 per barrel. Further strengthening of the oil prices to 90.00 will contribute to the continued decline of the USD/CAD pair and allow the "bears" to reach the level of 1.2500.

The long-term trend in the USD/CAD pair is upwards. At the moment, a correction is developing, and the breakdown of 1.2500 allows reaching the key support near 1.2295.

The medium-term trend is downwards. This week, the pair corrected to the key resistance 1.2706–1.2683, which allowed the "bulls" to close positions at favorable prices, and the "bears" — to form new sales with the targets at the last week's lows. The breakout of the key resistance of the trend allows growth to the target zone 2 (1.2950–1.2926).

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.2650, 1.2850, 1.2936.
Support levels: 1.2500, 1.2295, 1.2161.

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USD/CAD, Elliot Wave Analysis

The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, a downward correction developed as the wave of the higher level 4, and the development of the fifth wave 5 started, within which the wave (1) of 5 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (1) is developing, within which the wave i of 3 has formed, and a local correction has ended as the wave ii of 3. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.3200–1.3410. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2446.

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The pound is under pressure from the results of the US Fed meeting

Currently, the pound is under pressure from the outcome of the US Fed meeting. The regulator, as expected, announced its intention to raise the interest rate on short-term loans by 0.25% in the near future, but the exact date was not announced, however experts continue to believe that this will happen in March. In addition, a reduction in the balance sheet of the US Fed was announced, which now significantly exceeds the required volume. Commenting on the current situation, the head of the regulator Jerome Powell noted that the recovery of the labor market and rising inflation suggest that the economy no longer needs serious stimulation. At the same time, the risks of a long delay in inflation at current levels and even its growth remain, but officials do not consider this scenario to be basic. In general, Powell's comments indicate the intention of the department to continue tightening monetary policy, which in the long term will support the US currency.

Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3672, 1.3732.
Support levels: 1.3427, 1.3366, 1.3306.


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Gold and EURUSD market update and technical analysis



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Cardano, decline may continue
The ADA/USD pair continues to decline for the second week in a row as part of the general market trend and is now trading around 1.03.

The pressure on the cryptocurrency market was exerted by the US Federal Reserve meeting, as a result of which the regulator announced a rate increase soon by 0.25%, as well as an upcoming significant reduction in the balance sheet. The head of the department, Jerome Powell, said that the US economy no longer needs serious monetary support, which indicates the possibility of further reduction in incentives and the strengthening of the US currency against alternative assets.

At the same time, recent positive events for the Cardano network and the ADA token — the launch of the decentralized exchange SundaeSwap (DEX) and the creation of the Pavia metaverse — have not yet been able to support prices and reverse the general market downward trend. Also, the launch of SundaeSwap (DEX) did not go smoothly. The excitement around the project caused a large number of users to enter the exchange, resulting in network congestion and the inability to make transactions.

Resistance levels: 1.2150, 1.3671, 1.4650, 1.5625.
Support levels: 0.9765, 0.7812.


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Brent Crude Oil, Elliot Wave Analysis

The price may grow.
On the daily chart, the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C develops. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of 1 is forming, within which the wave (iii) of 1 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 100.00–115.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 69.45.


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