Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Thanks, SeekingLight. Constructive suggestions are always appreciated. Success is what we are after. I will definitely follow up on your ideas and report back.

In terms of Elliott Wave, etc. it looks like we will be seeing another smallish pulse upwards for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD - C of Wave 4, followed by another wave down (Wave 5) before the next major wave, which will be upwards, emerges.

A person can go through Itme's posts and see the time and date and predictions and then check it out on the charts. You can draw the facts(not conclusions from that) Besides if he said he averaged 80% winners and 200 pips a trade you would want to go to his thread and check it out your self any way . The information is here with a little research one can know the results.

I have been following itme for a while now, and I personally havefollowed many of the experimental signal with my real live account. I have in the past asked of a possible signal alerts system which I thought was going to be be available some day, but itme has never solicited or asked anyone to join a group or purchase his signals. As a matter of fact itme has never responded to me once in reference to my asking whether there will be a signal alert available any time soon, or ever as far as that goes.

I have made many successful trades with the use of itme's thread, and it may be that some would try to degrade the success seen on itme's thread, for whatever reason. I plan to continue using and researching for myself the information from this "experimental" and I say "only experimental" thread. The information on this thread was designed to enable itme to establish and operate a more successful trading program for himself.

Perhaps there are individuals that do not appreciate this thread, or maybe your a bit intreagued that someone would share their techniques so openly. I would kindly ask that you develop your own trading system, start your own thread, and let us come and look through a magnifying glass glaring at your ideas, and your trading profits and losses.

But if for any reason itme decides to establish a trading alert signal that would cost money, and allow itme to be paid for his services, then you can be rest assured that you would never have to worry again about participating in itme's experimental thread.

Thank you itme for your continual desire to learn more, and your generous "free to all" sharing of the information you compile on a daily basis on this thread.

I am thankful for the generous help!

Monarch

I agree with the EUR/USD long... support at 1.2795 my only concern is the rally could get stopped short because I'm seeing allot of technical indications there is a major top in place at 1.29. Theres a good chance it could pop to that level or below and quickly reverse.

Looks like the $USD is riding on some major support also...might be going lower but i question if it will without a hell of a fight... if not it could go up for quite sometime. Thinking the average technical consensus is Short on EUR/USD so if it rallys there are going to be allot of people shorting hard into it. I'm seeing a good chance that it could fall for another couple days too and then stage 1 more final rally but for now my bets are long...if its stopped out @ 1.2795 ish we should see a move to 1.2695 or so and then possibly another retest of the highs later in the week or next week. I've got allot of evidence supporting both scenerios. Looks like you, wavetrader and myself are all long on it for now (that scares me) so we'll just have to see what happens. I feel strongly about 1.2795 being important support.

I have 2 solid short term models pointing long but my longer term cyclical stuff and IMHO technical analysis wise we are in one major short position.

I am new to EW theory and learning the basics. Though I do not using ITME's trades, I do lurk this thread and follow his anticipated moves on some currency pairs to help with my understanding of Elliott Wave theory while I trade my own trade style.

I concur with Monarch. Putting your research and calls on anticipated price movements and reversals out there under the glare and scrutiny of a suspicious public is a bold move. And though I do not make or lose any money from ITME's posts, his thread contributes to my learning. For me, that is more valuable than a string of winning trades won blindly.

I appreciate ITME's effort and posts. Long may they continue.

Adam F

Now that the dust has settled from the latest round of slapping faces with gloves, how about letting Itme get on with the research??

If you have read the thread thoroghley, you'll find that some losses have been examined and the 2 consistant things found were: Misreading waves and tiredness. Itme gives a lot of time to detailed responses so, folks, lay off for a while, let Itme concentrate on the experiment & wait for more (hopefully successfull) trades!

I've stopped live trading to concentrate on learning Elliott Waves - my brain hurts and today, the only waves I'll be watching are in the Bay of Biscay viewed over a glass in a bar in La Rochelle. Itme, you should try it!!!

Back to the books tomorrow

Tuesday November 14 at 5:15 ET

Exit Trade Signal #236 Sell GBP/USD at 1.9173 at market price of 1.8990


Original target was 1.8975. The lowest price reached is 1.8973, 2 pips past our target.

Entry price was 1.9173. The highest price reached was 1.9177, 4 pips higher than the entry price.

Profit from this trade is 80 pips.

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Previous trade signal:

Thursday November 9 4:00 ET

GBP/USD just met our conservative high probability reversal value at 1.9173 and completed a full 5 wave Elliott Wave pattern.

Trade Signal #236 Sell GBP/USD at 1.9173
Stop is 1.9205
Target is 1.8975
Risk is 35 pips
Reward is 194 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.7 to 1
For research purposes only.
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Previous prediction:

Future EUR/USD and GBP/USD prediction

Thursday November 9 8:30 ET

EUR/USD just fell to 1.2860 and GBP/USD fell to 1.9132. These are likely reversal points for the final upwards push to a double top or a new high for these pairs.

GBP/USD will probably go to 1.9185 or even a little higher, while EUR/USD is likely to rise to 1.2920 .

By studying the Elliott Wave and other factors we hope to identify the ultimate tops of these pairs, which will be an excellent low risk / high reward trade opportunity.

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Tuesday November 14 at 5:15 ET

Trade Signal #233B Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3580

Stop is 2.3549

Target is 2.3730

Risk is 46 pips

Reward is 135 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 2.9 to 1

For research purposes only.

Note: due to the fact that the reward : risk ratio for this trade signal is not very high, and the trade is counter-trend (Wave 4 upwards), this is not an advised trade, just a research study.
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Previous comments and trade signals:

Delay re-entry of long GBP/CHF trade in case it goes further south

After buying GBP/CHF according to Trade Signal #233A Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3630 the price rose to 2.3729, and we advised a temporary exit at 2.3724 to capture 80 pips of profit. The price has since fallen 72 pips to 2.3652.


After reviewing the situation it looks like there is a chance that GBP/CHF has not finished its downtrend yet, and may fall once more in a fifth and final wave to a new low at about 2.3565. We could re-enter our buy trade at about 2.3650, but this would be a little bit risky. There will be a better entry position for a low risk / high reward buy trade if the price falls to about 2.3565.
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Temporary Exit of Trade Signal #233A Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3630

Friday November 10 16:45 ET

We believe that USD/CHF is due to fall quite strongly about now (current high about 1.2417), bringing down GBP/CHF. Therefore we advise temporary exit of GBP/CHF long trade at 1.3724 to capture 80 pips of profit.
Re-enter long position following completion of A-B-C corrective downwards wave.
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Friday November 10 2:00 ET
Trade Signal #233A Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3630
Stop is 2.3597
Target #1 is 2.3865
Risk is 48 pips
Reward is 220 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.6 to 1

For research purposes only.
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Previous trade signal:

Comment on Trade Signal #233 Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3666
The trade concept Trade Signal #233 Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3666 was predicated on a failed fifth wave down. This turned out not to be the case, as a fifth wave materialised, carrying the price down to 2.3643 - precisely our stop . The problem is that I didn't calculate the most probable reversal values, and it turns out that 2.3643 is the most probable reversal value exactly . So, in a conservative strategy, we would not enter a trade before the most probable reversal value is reached, and furthermore, we would never place a stop precisely on a most probable reversal value, but 10 to 15 pips on the far side of it .
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Thursday November 9 12:00 ET
Trade Signal #233 Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3666
Stop is 2.3634
Target #1 is 2.3840
Risk is 47 pips
Reward is 160 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 3.4 to 1

For research purposes only.
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Tuesday November 14 at 5:45 ET

Trade Signal #237 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8965

Stop is 1.8949

Target is 1.9185

Risk is 19 pips

Reward is 216 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 11.3 to 1

For research purposes only.


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Tuesday November 14 at 6:00 ET

Trade Signal #238 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2440

Stop is 1.2471

Target is 1.2315

Risk is 35 pips

Reward is 121 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 3.5 to 1

For research purposes only.

Upon further reflection, though this trade may work, it is not a system compliant trade. The reward : risk ratio is too low (less than 5:1) and the entry point is shy of the high probability reversal value of 1.2470. It is also risky to enter a trade shy of the 10 day upper trendline, which is now at 1.2465. In terms of Elliott Wave, this wave C may be complete, but it should rise to at least 1.2460. The stop should be at least 10 pips, and preferably 15 pips higher than the high probability reversal value of 1.2470, which would further deteriorate the reward : risk ratio. The optimum entry price is about 1.2485.

The trade signal #228 buying CAD/JPY was based on an impossible wave count. We said at the time "In terms of Elliott Wave, this is estimated to be the third impulse wave of a large upwards fifth wave." The problem is that there had only been a 1-2-3-4-5 downwards wave at the time of the entry, which constitutes an A of an A-B-C downwards corrective wave. There was still an upwards B and a downwards C to go before we should have entered that buy trade. We identified the bottom of Wave A to the precise pip at 103.85, but didn't keep track of the Wave Pattern properly. The long trade which we entered was only the B wave which only went up 87 pips to 104.72. We should have exited the trade there and reversed.

The price has since fallen 137 pips to 103.35, and it is still possible for the price to fall a little more before the long trade entry price is reached.
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Previous trade signal:

Tuesday November 8 at 00:45 ET
Trade Signal #228 Buy CAD/JPY at 103.85
Stop is 103.54
Target #1 is 105.70
Target #2 is 107.30
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 175 / 335 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.3 /8.4 to 1

For research purposes only.

In terms of Elliott Wave, this is estimated to be the third impulse wave of a large upwards fifth wave.<!-- / message -->
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This morning's 8:30 ET U.S. news release is propelling our long GBP/USD and short USD/CHF trades towards their targets:


Today 08:30am
*OCT PRODUCER PRICE INDEX: -1.6% V -0.5%E; PPI EX FOOD & ENERGY: -0.9% V 0.1%E

- no revisions


Table Of PPI Data From Labor Department, In Percent Changes

OCT. SEP. AUG.

PPI, Finished Goods -1.6 -1.3 0.1
PPI, Ex. Food, Energy -0.9 0.6 -0.4
Energy -5.0 -8.4 0.3
Foods -0.8 0.7 1.4
Consumer Goods -1.9 -2.0 0.2
Residential Electricity -0.9 -0.1 1.3
Residential Gas -9.3 1.8 1.6
Gasoline -7.9 -22.2 -2.2
Home Heating Oil 1.8 -18.5 0.7
Drugs 0.5 -0.2 -0.9
Autos -2.3 2.8 -2.6
Tobacco -0.2 0.0 0.4
Capital Equipment -0.9 0.6 -0.3
Intermediate Goods -1.1 -1.4 0.4
Ex, Food, Energy 0.0 0.1 0.4
Crude Goods -10.5 -3.4 2.2
Ex. Food, Energy -1.3 1.0 -2.8

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Tuesday November 14 at 9:00 ET

Those who are following the Elliott Waves on the 1 minute chart will have exited Trade Signal #237 Buy GBP/USD at 1.9035 to capture 72 pips of profit. There will now probably be a large Wave 4 retracement. Once that retracement is over, the upwards trend will resume and carry GBP/USD to a new daily high. After that, once it finishes its upwards wave, GBP/USD should fall to about 1.8950 again before beginning its upwards trend in earnest.

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Tuesday November 14 at 5:45 ET
Trade Signal #237 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8965
Stop is 1.8949
Target is 1.9185
Risk is 19 pips
Reward is 216 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 11.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

Tuesday November 14 at 9:00 ET

Those who are following the Elliott Waves on the 1 minute chart will have exited Trade Signal #238 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2384 to capture 52 pips of profit. There will now probably be a large Wave 4 retracement.

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Previous trade signal:

Tuesday November 14 at 6:00 ET

Trade Signal #238 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2440
Stop is 1.2471
Target is 1.2315
Risk is 35 pips
Reward is 121 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 3.5 to 1

For research purposes only.

Upon further reflection, though this trade may work, it is not a system compliant trade. The reward : risk ratio is too low (less than 5:1) and the entry point is shy of the high probability reversal value of 1.2470. It is also risky to enter a trade shy of the 10 day upper trendline, which is now at 1.2465. In terms of Elliott Wave, this wave C may be complete, but it should rise to at least 1.2460. The stop should be at least 10 pips, and preferably 15 pips higher than the high probability reversal value of 1.2470, which would further deteriorate the reward : risk ratio. The optimum entry price is about 1.2485.
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Till what extent you think Gbp/Usd can fall further itme?

It better fall a lot further. lol

itme,
Do you use elliott waves on 1 min chart? I saw the divergence on a elliott wave oscillator on a 1 minute chart.

Wednesday November 15 at 5:30 ET

Trade Signal #239 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2507

Stop is 1.2536

Target is 1.2315

Risk is 32 pips

Reward is 189 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 5.9 to 1

For research purposes only.

Wednesday November 15 at 5:45 ET

Trade Signal #240 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8850

Stop is 1.8809

Target is 1.9150

Risk is 44 pips

Reward is 297 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 6.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

We believe that this will be Wave B up of a downwards corrective Wave 4. Note that there is another very high probability reversal value at about 1.8820. The very conservative trader should wait in hopes that the price will descend to this level and enter there with a proportionately lower stop. Given that GBP/USD frequently travels long distances and overshoots our estimated reversal values, it is not too farfetched that it could reach this lower price. Also, the time of day is somewhat early for a reversal of the trend.

p.s. - GBP/USD subsequently fell to 1.8836, still clear of our stop, but 14 pips past our entry price. This may be the turnaround point.

Wednesday November 15 at 6:00 ET

Trade Signal #241 Sell USD/JPY at 1.1814

Stop is 1.1851

Target is 1.1650

Risk is 40 pips

Reward is 161 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 4.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

This may be the beginning of a Wave 3 downwards.
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