Trading the Cable swings via averages

I had to revert to the math for this one because your chart is a tad different from mine and sometimes it depends on how accurate and how thick we draw our lines.

It looks to me that you have your pink box drawn to the absolute price high of A but you don't show the AC or AB lines so which point is A?

A should be the close of the pivot prior to the bear div.
So we get...
A = 1.374
-B = 1.370
= 0.004
C = 1.370
+ 0.004
= 1.374. D hit this number exactly 1.374.

See if your numbers match else Houston we have a problem.

Here is my 1 hour drawn with the box method.
It is often the case once the target is reached price will swing back 100% in the opposite direction which it did on this occasion reaching D2 in divergence.

When all said and done what we are looking at are what I call the 'swings of equilibrium'. Where AB is always the target distance if C is a contested point tp swing from.

We have the buyers at B winning and the sellers at A also winning, something has to give. In this case price reaches D but this is not enough to take out the stops at A. Then B takes their profit and price swings 100% in the opposite direction to D2 where A takes their profit causing price to rise again.

Fascinating stuff is this study of swings and should keep you all studying for many years before it becomes clear as mud.

So then we come to the average swings which is what this thread is supposed to be about.

Here on the 5 min chart we can clearly see the average swings of the 5 min, 15min, the hour and 4 hour.

We can see the 5 and 15 failed to make a HH but the 1 hour did.

Price failed to make the next level average swing high and ran into Div. So if the average failed to make the HH it should test the opposite side which it does and succeeds in doing so and ran for more than 80 pips.

Note the problem the bears had passing the swing low average (circled) they had to get a wiggle on to pull down that average to make the LL.

All the average swings made the LL with the exception of the 4 hour which would have taken an earthquake to do.

There is a lot to think about and having 'thunk' one may be too late to take the trade.

I read other stuff on this chart but that is enough for now..

This is in response to Alan's post 7521 and it throws up some interesting anomalies. The A point and the C point are identical on Alan and my charts, however, the B point is different. The problem here is that shows as a pivot on Alan's chart but not on mine. I had the pivot on the previous 60m bar close. This meant that when I drew up my ABCD price would not have (and didn't) make the D point whereas on Alan's chart his D point was hit. The other reason my target wasn't hit was because my A point was the highest of all pivots, i.e. the one after the previous high pivot and which now put the 60m in divergence, so that was my primary error. The fact that the B point on my chart and Alan's was different is something we/I can't do much about. We have to hope that the feeds we get from our chart suppliers is accurate. In Alan's case it was, in my case it was not. Have a look at the attached and see that the pink box shows target hit for Alan and the green box shows target missed for me. Perhaps I should change to Alan's chart supplier!

Hi Alan,
Please check for me,
Is my ABCD correct?
And in this case, what is the entry?
Thanks so much!

B should be here. A and B always on one side of EMA.

Thanks so much,
As you say, I need to change my A.
Point A is also a RegDIV point.

Exactly.

I have seen these differences on many occasions. I think it has something to do with exactly what time the broker closes off a bar. It can make a two hour difference on the 4 hour chart making it very unreliable for pivots. Note it should only be that the actual pivot is different the reach of the price should always be similar even though it is on different bars.

I also think this is the reason price passes through the target D a little on occasion.

We can only trade with what we have but if we are aware there may be differences then we can protect ourselves accordingly by tightening the stops when the target is approached.

Every time we come up against a problem the idea is to work out a solution for future reference. I am sometimes not so sure which is the correct target so I always opt for the nearest even if I miss out on a few pips.
.................................................
Another problem we face is the amount of time it takes a trade to execute, that run down yesterday took 9 hours. My eyes are getting bad as a result of watching these moves. If we were to do this as employees we would be screaming health and safety.

B should be the pivot being attacked by C.

B and C should be on opposite sides of the EMA which is the same as opposite sides of the RSI 50% level.

A is chosen because the next pivot is in div. So pick the shortest distance even if it does run to the higher one.

HD on M15.

Anybody agree with this scenario shown here on the 60m today?

No. C is here.

Thank you for your comment P, I thought that was done and dusted on Friday?

Hi Mayflower,
think the target is correct, DIV now forming on 1H so might be move up first
Cheers...Des

Target is similar on H4

Alan drew the same thing.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13857674

Yes if that one is done P I was looking at the next target.

I count this as being just a regular divergence. Of course this gives us a ZOO point to work with since it should return price back to the EMA.

Thanks Alan, thanks Pilygrim.

Alan, I am a troublesome student.
Please help me answer.
Before, averages swings shows uptrend
Go to the red circle, averages swings make to HH, price make to HL.
And in this case, what argument do I need to make about the trend?
Thanks so much!

Personally, I consider it from the point of view of the div on H4.

I'm also selling, Pilygrim.
I don't know if the price go to TP?
I like system of Alan.
My English is very bad, so I just try to say simple sentences.
Hope, everyone understands.