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General Review by Solid ECN

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Current trend
The stocks of McDonald's Corp., the world's largest food retailer, are correcting at $261 a share.

Some details of the company's upcoming deal with Mastercard Inc. on the sale of the startup Dynamic Yield. Mastercard Inc. became interested in the application in the fall, but the contract details were made public only now. It is expected that despite the sale of the application, the companies will continue to cooperate in its use, and the preliminary price will be about $300M. The full closing of the transaction is expected in Q2 2022.

On January 27, the Q4 report on the corporation's work will be released. According to analysts' forecasts, the profit could reach about $6.04B, in line with previous periods. Another serious increase is expected from the EPS indicator, which can reach 10–11% or $2.45–2.47 per share. The last dividend payment took place on December 15, when investors received $1.38 per share, corresponding to a yield of 2.21% per annum.



Support and resistance
The global uptrend continues within the uptrend. However, the readings of technical indicators reflect that the price may leave its limits soon: the histogram of the AO oscillator actively approaches the transition level, and the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator almost reached the signal line and are ready to cross it.

Resistance levels: 266.00, 277.00.
Support levels: 256.00, 244.00.

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Mastercard Inc, general review

Current trend
The stocks of Mastercard Inc. trades near the 5-month high, strengthening since the beginning of the week. Since the December 52-week low, the issuer rose more than 1.43%, while the S&P 500 index added 0.56% over the same period.

The company announced the appointment to the Board of Directors of Harit Talwar as an independent director from April 2022. According to the past quarter results, The Wall Street experts forecast the corporation's revenue growth by 24.4% YoY to $5.12B with an increase in earnings per share by 33.5% YoY to $2.19. Mastercard Inc. announced new partnerships with BMO and Moneris Solutions Corp., which have joined the Mastercard Track business payment service, one of the first open-loop commercial solutions.

Previously approved, an 11% YoY increase in quarterly dividends to $0.49 per share. The payment will take place on February 9, 2022. Also, management announced a new $8B share buyback program.

Support and resistance
The last trading sessions are quite active, but no unidirectional trend is observed. At the moment, the key support and resistance levels are 349.00 and 382.00, respectively. There is potential for recovery. Indicators indicate the strength of buyers: the price consolidated above MA (50) and MA (200), MACD histogram started to rise. It is better to open the positions from the key levels.

Comparative analysis of the company's multipliers and companies-competitors in the industry indicates the neutrality of the asset.

Resistance levels: 371.00, 382.00, 394.00.
Support levels: 357.00, 349.00, 336.00.

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WTI Crude Oil, Elliot Wave Analysis

The price may grow
On the daily chart, the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C develops. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of 1 of (1) is developing, within which the wave (iii) of 1 is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 93.00–100.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 65.93.

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USD/CHF, the US currency is recovering

Current trend
The US dollar shows strong growth against the Swiss franc during the Asian session, building on the "bullish" momentum that was formed at the end of last week, when the pair consolidated near the local lows of November 2, 2021. At the moment, the development of the uptrend is mainly supported by technical factors, while the block of data from the US released on January 14 turned out to be frankly weak.

In particular, investors were disappointed by the sharp drop in Retail Sales in December by 1.9% after rising by 0.2% in November. The Retail Sales Control Group fell to a record 3.1% over the same period after falling 0.5% in November. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in January fell from 70.6 to 68.8 points, while analysts had expected a decline to only 70 points.

Markets in the US are closed today to celebrate Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, so trading activity is likely to be somewhat reduced.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is changing slightly, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is going down preserving a previous sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, which has reached its lows, is trying to reverse upward, signaling in favor of the development of corrective growth in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 0.9157, 0.9175, 0.9200, 0.9220.
Support levels: 0.9125, 0.9100, 0.9073, 0.9036.

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Netflix Inc, Elliot Wave Analysis

The price may fall.
On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) developed, and a downward correction started to develop as the fourth wave (4). Now, the wave and of (4) is forming, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of A has formed, and a local correction is developing as the wave iv of A. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will fall to the levels of 465.32–411.70. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 620.94.

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USD/JPY: US dollar wins back its losses

Current trend
The US dollar shows strong growth against the Japanese yen in Asian trading, quickly retreating from local lows, updated at the end of the last trading week. On Friday, the US currency updated its lows from December 20, 2021, dropping just below 113.50. Nevertheless, the instrument failed to consolidate at new levels, and already on the same day the US dollar won back most of its losses.

It is also worth noting that on Friday a large block of macroeconomic statistics was released in the US, which turned out to be quite weak, but did not cause the expected negative reaction on the market. Anyway, along with a significant drop in Retail Sales, the data also reflected a decline in Industrial Production in December by 0.1%, while analysts had expected it to grow moderately by 0.4%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in January fell from 70.6 to 68.8 points, which turned out to be worse than forecasts for a decline to 70 points.

Support and resistance
In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is expanding from below, remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). The indicator is about to test the zero level for a breakdown. Stochastic, on the contrary, indicates the growth of the instrument. The indicator reversed upwards near its lows, reflecting the strongly oversold dollar in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 114.50, 115.00, 115.50, 116.00.
Support levels: 114.00, 113.50, 113.00, 112.50.

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S&P 500: the beginning of the reporting season has disappointed investors

Current trend
Due to a not very positive start to corporate reporting, the leading index of the US economy, S&P 500, corrects downwards, trading around 4655.0.

Among the index's major components, financial conglomerate JPMorgan Chase & Co. was one of the first to publish its data, showing a quarterly income of $29.26B, which was below $29.65B a quarter earlier and $29.78B predicted by analysts. Despite the poor earnings performance, earnings per share were $3.33, well above the $3.01 expected. Bad news came from the large pharmacy chain Walgreens Boots Alliance. The company said some pharmacies would close over the weekend as the state is understaffed by the continued spread of the omicron strain. These reports come after fourth-quarter earnings of $33.9B were reported, well ahead of the $32.88B forecasted.

Securities again began to rise, putting additional pressure on the stock market. Leading 10-year US bonds are trading at 1.793%, up from Friday's 1.750%.

Growth leaders include Las Vegas Sands Corp. (+14.15%), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (+8.60%), and Discovery Inc. (+7.04%).

Among the decline leaders there are JPMorgan Chase & Co. (–6.15%), Monster Beverage Corp. (–4.73%), and Simon Property Group Inc. (–4.47%).

Support and resistance
The index quotes move within a global upward channel near the support line. Technical indicators reversed and gave a local sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator trades in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 4710.0, 4800.0.
Support levels: 4593.0, 4500.0.

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Tesla Inc, General Review

Current trend
The stocks of Tesla Inc., the world's leading manufacturer of electric cars, continue the global correction, trading at 1049.00.

Due to a large amount of incoming information, the instrument's volatility remains high. Yesterday, the corporation announced that the production of the long-awaited new Cybertruck was postponed again, and its start is postponed to Q1 2023. It was previously planned to start work in the second half of 2022, but the delay is caused by the desire of the developers to make changes to the features and functionality of the truck.

Global sales of leading US assets by large investors continue. Following the head of Tesla Inc., Elon Musk, they began to sell shares and large funds. On Thursday, the ARK Innovation ETF and ARK Generation Internet ETF sold a total of 87.756K shares of the company for over $90M.

The financial report will be published on 26 January. Analysts expect quarterly revenue to reach a record $16.79B despite the sell-off and negative news, and earnings per share could hit $2.21.

Support and resistance
Quotes are moving within the corrective downward channel, after which the global uptrend may continue. Technical indicators keep a poor buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram moves close to the transition level.

Resistance levels: 1105, 1200.
Support levels: 1000, 892.

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BTC/USD: technical analysis

Current trend
The BTC/USD pair is moving within the medium-term downtrend.

Last week, the price reached its lows of last September at 39600.00 but then made an attempt to grow and rose to 44400.00. The general downward trend is currently maintained, as technical indicators reflect: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic reverse downwards. Under these conditions, the key “bearish” level is 41700.00. Its breakdown allows further decline to the area of 37500.00 (Murrey [–2/8]). In case of the breakout of the middle line of Bollinger bands around 44300.00, growth to the levels of 47900.00 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%, the upper line of Bollinger bands) and 50000.00 (Murrey [0/8]) may begin, but so far, this option of price movement looks less possible.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 44300.00, 47900.00, 50000.00.
Support levels: 41700.00, 37500.00.

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EUR/USD, Elliot Wave Analysis

The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) formed, and a downward correction developed as the second wave 2 of (3), within which the wave c of 2 formed. Now, the development of the third wave 3 of (3) started, within which the first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 3 forms. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.1687–1.1907. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1215.

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Apple Inc Elliot Wave Analysis

The price is in a correction, a fall is possible.
On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 developed, within which the wave (5) of 3 formed. Now, a correction has developed as the wave 4 of (5), and a downward correction is developing as the fourth wave 4, within which the wave (A) of 4 is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 148.43–127.03. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 183.16.

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Brent Crude Oil: prices are holding near record highs

Current trend
Brent Crude Oil prices continue to rise during today's trading, testing the $88.00 per barrel mark and returning to the previous record highs renewed last week. Earlier, the quotes reached their seven-year peaks, reacting to the active recovery of the global economy, as well as interruptions in the supply of oil and oil products in the Middle East. The current growth rate is only slightly lower than in 2009, and optimistic investors suggest that oil prices will be able to consolidate above $100 per barrel by the third quarter of 2022.

Today, traders are focused on an extensive block of macroeconomic statistics from the US. In particular, the markets will be interested in data on the dynamics of business activity indices from Markit for January. Also, during the day, the index of business activity in the industrial sector of the Dallas Fed, as well as the placement of 2-year bonds will be released.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands show a steady growth: the price range is actively narrowing, reflecting the emergence of an ambiguous trading dynamics in the short term. MACD maintains a poor sell signal, being below the signal line but tends to change the trend. Stochastic, retreating from its highs, reversed into a horizontal plane, reacting to the return of the "bullish" dynamics at the end of the last trading week.

Resistance levels: 88.79, 90, 91.
Support levels: 87, 86, 84.5, 83.5.

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BTC/USD, digital gold remains under pressure

Current trend
Last week, the BTC/USD pair was actively losing value and reached its lowest level since July last year, dropping below 34000.00. The pressure on the first cryptocurrency was caused by a complex of negative factors, although the opinions of investors differ regarding the central one.

Thus, the downward correction of the entire cryptocurrency sector is facilitated by the fall of the American stock market and the growth in the yield of American bonds in anticipation of the imminent increase in interest rates and the meeting of the US Federal Reserve scheduled for Wednesday. Investors fear that the rhetoric of regulator officials may become even more "hawkish" against the background of a record increase in inflation in the country, which could lead to further strengthening of the US currency against alternative assets.

Among other factors putting pressure on the digital market, experts cite the report of the Bank of Russia on cryptocurrencies, which recommends banning both their use and activities for the extraction of digital assets due to threats to financial stability, the well-being of citizens, and the sovereignty of monetary policy. If such a decision is made, BTC mining may suffer since the country accounts for more than 10% of the world's hashrate, and Russia is one of the top three in terms of cryptocurrency mining.

Support and resistance
Now the price of the BTC/USD pair is around 35000.00 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%), consolidation below which allows a decline to 31250.00 (Murrey [5/8]), 28300.00 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%). The breakout of 37500.00 allows an upward correction to the area of 41700.00 (Fibonacci correction of 38.2%, which will unlikely break the currently observed downtrend. Indicators signal the possibility of a decrease: Bollinger bands are directed downwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 37500.00, 41700.00
Support levels: 35000.00, 31250.00, 28300.00.

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NZD/USD
The "bears" prepare to renew the December low

Current trend
The NZD/USD pair maintains its downward trend amid the recovery of the US dollar, currently trading around 0.6705.

Investors expect decisive action from the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation, which has reached record levels for almost 40 years. In December, representatives of the department announced the beginning of the curtailment of the program of emergency stimulus to the economy, after which a smooth cycle of interest rate adjustment will follow. It is expected that this year, it will be raised three times. Traders put the "hawkish" policy of the US Federal Reserve into dollar quotes, thereby helping to strengthen its rate against all major competitors.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is in no hurry to take active steps to change monetary policy, despite the existing growth in consumer prices. Annual food inflation in the country reached 4.5% for December, the highest rate in a decade. Experts believe that the negative dynamics will become a catalyst for another sharp increase in the consumer price index, which will be released on Thursday, January 27. The figure is forecast to increase to 5.7% in 2021, while inflation for the fourth quarter of last year is expected to be 1.3%. At the moment, the difficult situation with the spread of coronavirus is a deterrent for the regulator in adjusting the current parameters. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced that the country is moving to a red, maximum alert level due to the discovery of 12 cases with the Omicron strain, with the introduction of appropriate sanitary restrictions. The new measures do not provide for the announcement of a lockdown but include a requirement to reduce the number of visitors to mass events to 100 people, provided they are vaccinated, and in the absence of such, to 25 and mandatory social distancing and wearing medical masks.

Support and resistance
The long-term trend in the NZD/USD pair is downwards. After testing 0.6864 in the first half of January, the instrument fell to the support level of 0.6700 and is preparing to break through it. In this case, further decline is possible, with the target at 0.6540.
The medium-term trend is downwards. After the test of the key resistance of 0.6910–0.6890, the correction was completed, and a new impulse began, as a result of which the price reached the first sell target — the level of 0.6707, which breakdown allows the "bears" to test the target zone 3 (0.6648–0.6629).
Resistance levels: 0.6864, 0.7055.
Support levels: 0.67, 0.654.

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Silver, Elliot Wave Analysis

The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of 3 formed, a downward correction developed as the wave (2) of 3, and the development of the third wave (3) of 3 started. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) has formed, a local correction has developed as the wave ii of 1, and the wave iii of 1 is forming, within which the development of the wave (iv) of iii is ending. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will grow to the levels of 26.76–28.68. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 22.72.

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PayPal Holdings, Elliot Wave Analysis

The price may fall.
On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) developed, and a downward correction develops as the fourth wave (4). Now, the wave C of (4) is forming, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, a local correction has ended as the fourth wave iv of C, and the wave v of C is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 140.00–128.71. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 179.02.

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EURUSD Market Analysis
The euro is trying to return to decline

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AUD/USD, the instrument renews local lows

Current trend
During the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair shows flat dynamics, holding near the level of 0.7130. Yesterday, the instrument steadily declined, having renewed local lows of December 20. However, by the time the daily session was closed, it partially restored lost positions.

The asset was supported by poor US macroeconomic data, which reduced the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve would raise rates more than four times in 2022. Thus, Markit Manufacturing PMI for January fell from 57.7 to 55.0 points, while analysts' forecasts suggested a decline to 56.7 points. Service PMI fell from 57.6 to 50.9 points, which was worse than forecasts of 55.0 points.

On Tuesday, further development of the upward dynamics is facilitated by data from Australia. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the consumer price index increased by 1.3% QoQ and 3.5% YoY, which was better than analysts' forecasts of +1.0% QoQ and +3.2% YoY.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands try to reverse into a horizontal plane. The price range expands from below, but not as fast as the "bearish" activity develops. The MACD indicator shows a moderate decline and keeps the same sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic keeps its downtrend but is quickly approaching its lows, indicating that the instrument may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.7160, 0.7200, 0.7250, 0.7300.
Support levels: 0.7128, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.7000.