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  • #35,361
  • Jan 10, 2022 6:48am Jan 10, 2022 6:48am
Quoting PranithR
Any suggestions, opinions are much appreciated. I was looking at CHFJPY, where the price came back down to Friday's HVA. What would have been the ideal entry point? I see after entering the HVA area effort to move up failed on the low volume with widespread next candle down. Trend on 15 min hulls was down, would have I entered when my 5 min hulls turned red when price tested it and closed on lows. {image}
When it comes to shorts, I personally look for failed tests more than NDs and UTs. Failed tests, price is very unlikely to return to the highs.

Early in Asia there is clear weakness that comes in, your moving average turns green after the weakness, but is quick to turn red again because no serious buyers came in.
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  • #35,362
  • Jan 10, 2022 6:59am Jan 10, 2022 6:59am
Quoting Anotan
Short on CJ, to say there was weakness in the background would be an understatement. Some volume came in today on a down bar, but its clear that its a 2 bar reversal. Shorted a failed test on M15. {image}
nice trade. yes there was initial selling, but effort vs result, it closed up on low vol. and for today, i always look to confirm on 5m or even lower from where exactly came the vol, top or lows. and today, there was low vol at the top when it did that fake break of the old high, some vol came in afterwards. from my experience if vol isn from the lows or top it s more risky. sure sellers or buyers could come in at any point, but happened so many times that i took trades like that and lost. atleast i didn t saw the obvious weakness that u was talking about. usually low vol at resist or support it s a sign that s not gonna hold, but ofc, everything can happen
  • #35,363
  • Edited 7:55am Jan 10, 2022 7:43am | Edited 7:55am
Quoting 1odi
{quote} yes there was initial selling, but effort vs result,
effort vs results? you're talking about how price closed up above the UT? On low volume? Sounds bearish to me, no professionals were willing to take price up higher.

Or are you talking about on the daily chart how price closed up on low volume Friday after we saw a sign of strength on Thursday? Showing that professionals were not interested in higher prices after strength? Still sounds bearish to me.

Quoting 1odi
{quote} and for today, i always look to confirm on 5m or even lower from where exactly came the vol, top or lows...
You're talking about dissecting high volume bars? I've seen a few people talk about it, I've always thought it was better to understand the context of the high volume rather than what's inside the high volume.

Quoting 1odi
{quote} ... atleast i didn t saw the obvious weakness that u was talking about. usually low vol at resist or support it s a sign that s not gonna hold, but ofc, everything can happen
I get that you're only concerned about the reaction to climatic volume, rather than what climatic volume did. Its understandable route to take, I try not to tie my hands though to only taking trades based on reactions to S/R. I try not to limit myself with any hard and fast rules or only one type of setup that way I can adapt as the market changes.

For example last two week of December were easy trading using Pres78's VZA, last couple of weeks, the setups have been scarce so I've adapted.

Edit- Took a partial at the low of the UT, holding the rest. My reasoning is Thursday we saw a SoS and Friday being NFP would've been a perfect excuse to break the previous high, but Friday failed to break the previous high and looking weak. We will see.
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  • #35,364
  • Jan 10, 2022 7:57am Jan 10, 2022 7:57am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} effort vs results? you're talking about how price closed up above the UT? On low volume? Sounds bearish to me, no professionals were willing to take price up higher. Or are you talking about on the daily chart how price closed up on low volume Friday after we saw a sign of strength on Thursday? Showing that professionals were not interested in higher prices after strength? Still sounds bearish to me. {quote} You're talking about dissecting high volume bars? I've seen a few people talk about it, I've always thought it was better to understand...
it wasn t meant as a critique, i just wrote what i saw from my point of view.
that s what i meant effort vs result. if u were that professional and u d be selling that upthrust that got run over on friday, where would u place ur stop? would u defend that lvl, ofc based on the position size..for me that was a SOS..ofc it was friday, NFP and so on. but i don t see any signs of distribution that are obvious.
i m not saying i m right, i was just trryng to see how u saw things. there sno right or wrong way to trade, plus u had a nice trade.
EDIT> ofc it s best to understand first the context, background, but often times what might look like a SOS on the hrly could actually be SOW on the lower timeframes, it s all about how the vol is distributed imo, highs or lows, that s atleast how i define accumulation and distribution. if i have a top forming or price just took out an old high to the left and it did it on relative low vol, then to me that says there aren t many sellers 2 defend. and based on the premise that professionals like u said buy the lows and sell the highs, i didn t see that on CJ today. that s all
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  • #35,365
  • Jan 10, 2022 8:06am Jan 10, 2022 8:06am
Gotta love these juicy debates
  • #35,366
  • Jan 10, 2022 8:11am Jan 10, 2022 8:11am
Speaking of EU earlier.

Decided to take a shady short scalp after the gotcha bar and UT on M15.

ADR was exceeded and exited at the close of the high volume down bar for 1R.
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  • #35,367
  • Jan 10, 2022 8:16am Jan 10, 2022 8:16am
Quoting 1odi
{quote}that s what i meant effort vs result. if u were that professional and u d be selling that upthrust that got run over on friday
I get this line of thinking, SoW and price runs the high so price must be bullish. In a trending market this is true, in a ranging market this isn't. Ranging markets its common for weakness to come in and price drifts up before the drop occurs.

You have to keep in mind that markets aren't perfect, sometime price get away from climatic volume when it shouldn't. Sometime Tests which are meant to be low spread/volume aren't.

Quoting 1odi
{quote} if u were that professional and u d be selling that upthrust that got run over on friday, where would u place ur stop?
I don't know this answer, I've been lead to believe that professionals don't use stops. I've read they hedge or have the deep pockets to keep losses on the books until a later time.

Also depending on how big the professional.. I.E. Governements, Goldman, JPMorgan.. Price running 30 pips above the high of the up thrust isn't anywhere close to being run over. If one of them sold they aren't worried at all.

Quoting 1odi
{quote} but i don t see any signs of distribution that are obvious.
I'm talking less about this situation and more in markets in general. You don't have to have a distribution period to fall. This is before my time, but in 2012/2013 there was the incident with the Swiss Government, they put a cap on the price of the CHF and price dropped 2k pips in a second or something crazy.

The thing that bothers me with your post is that it seems like you have a lot of little rules for the market must do this. If you fall into that trap you will not be able to adapt to changing market conditions. Market change from trending to ranging and not all ranges are the same not all trends are the same.
  • #35,368
  • Edited 11:10am Jan 10, 2022 8:34am | Edited 11:10am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} I get this line of thinking, SoW and price runs the high so price must be bullish. In a trending market this is true, in a ranging market this isn't. Ranging markets its common for weakness to come in and price drifts up before the drop occurs. You have to keep in mind that markets aren't perfect, sometime price get away from climatic volume when it shouldn't. Sometime Tests which are meant to be low spread/volume aren't. {quote} I don't know this answer, I've been lead to believe that professionals don't use stops. I've read they hedge...
i don t agree with most of what u said. these rules aren t mine, it s what all those books on volume say. i trade ranges on climactic vol with fake break, but i need to see some sellers comin in. Tests can be on low or high vol. the NSB had the swissy pegged, they lifted the peg and took the stops from all those who believed it can t drop beneath that lvl. anyways, u got a different way of trading and that s ok. cheers
  • #35,369
  • Jan 10, 2022 9:53am Jan 10, 2022 9:53am
only trade for today
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  • #35,370
  • Jan 10, 2022 11:34am Jan 10, 2022 11:34am
Quoting Paulscaff1
Speaking of EU earlier. Decided to take a shady short scalp after the gotcha bar and UT on M15. ADR was exceeded and exited at the close of the high volume down bar for 1R. {image}
the soft tells u the background also, or just allerts based on SOS and SOW for the tf ur looking at?
  • #35,371
  • Edited 4:47pm Jan 10, 2022 11:56am | Edited 4:47pm
Quoting 1odi
{quote} the soft tells u the background also, or just allerts based on SOS and SOW for the tf ur looking at?
I wouldnt say it tells the background as such, it will alert you if there are setup sequences. And you can look at the symbol scanner which will show all the sos/sow principles that have appeared in the last 20 bars across all timeframes which shows the background in a way. Then youve got the trend allignment scanner which acts like a normal trend scanner indicator that you can find for mt4.

Ive not got the pro version, but with that you can customise it based on your own strategy so that it will alert you to whatever your preferences are.

That EU trade though, I happened to be watching at the time and caught the trade, TG never picked it up.

The version ive got is supposed to alert you to basic sharpshooter/topbot setups but ive not really made much use of it.
  • #35,372
  • Jan 11, 2022 9:50am Jan 11, 2022 9:50am
How should I interpret such a situation when market made a bullish upbar which means buying, and then they put it out in a few candles?
Is it bearish?
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Daytrader
  • #35,373
  • Edited Jan 12, 2022 5:32am Jan 11, 2022 2:32pm | Edited Jan 12, 2022 5:32am
Quoting trezo
How should I interpret such a situation when market made a bullish upbar which means buying, and then they put it out in a few candles? Is it bearish? {image}
during a 5m or 1m or hrly candle beeing formed there are orders getting filled. that s why u see those up and down ticks on display, regardless if u look at candles, bars and so on. the candle closed green, but the next candle closed red. why s that? cos the sellers are active within that candle as well. that s the reason why most patterns are a 2candle thing (pinbars also if u look at 1 tf lower u ll see and engulfing pattern). so understanding that, u add volume to ur analisys to help u determine which are stronger at that moment in time, buyers or sellers. if a candle closes green but the vol is increasing substantially, and the reaction to that vol increase(effort to push the price up) is a bear candle then the likelyhood is bear won that battle and the odds are that price should head lower, just as an example. u could really use knowing which are signs of weakness and signs of strenght to help u better gauge what s going on. atleast climactic, stopping vol and tests for supply and demand. that way u d know what to look for and u d be developing a plan which u can follow, cos otherwise there s no hope in achieving consistency. so if ur set on learning VSA there s a tone of material free on here that u could start off with, books on vol, videos and so on.
edit> i was looking to short GC today but they didn t breach the previous high so i skipped the trade. but now they took out previous low and they engulfed back inside the range. could be also divergent etc,( didn t looked). my point is, u could look at this and trade it as a fake break to go long and target the resistance (which i ussually trade also) but look at the vol, the immediate background is weak, plus look at the vol on the candle that broke support. where are the buyers? sure it could go up like this without vol increasing etc, it could do anything, but talking probabilities> low vol at support or resistance means the likelihood for that to hold is scarce. so it should also answer ur question. candle closed up, but why is the price going down? hopefully this gets the point accross
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  • #35,374
  • Jan 12, 2022 10:32am Jan 12, 2022 10:32am
Quoting 1odi
{quote} during a 5m or 1m or hrly candle beeing formed there are orders getting filled. that s why u see those up and down ticks on display, regardless if u look at candles, bars and so on. the candle closed green, but the next candle closed red. why s that? cos the sellers are active within that candle as well. that s the reason why most patterns are a 2candle thing (pinbars also if u look at 1 tf lower u ll see and engulfing pattern). so understanding that, u add volume to ur analisys to help u determine which are stronger at that moment in time,...
I would like to develop a plan and setups to play the market, but I don't know enough yet I think. I am learning from 6 months and still still
Daytrader
  • #35,375
  • Jan 13, 2022 3:41am Jan 13, 2022 3:41am
Quoting trezo
{quote} I would like to develop a plan and setups to play the market, but I don't know enough yet I think. I am learning from 6 months and still still
HG and Pres78 have laid out some good trading plans if your interested mate.

Im sure theres a couple of others by Malcolm and Intel somewhere in the thread aswell.
  • #35,376
  • Edited 9:11am Jan 13, 2022 9:01am | Edited 9:11am
Got this short trade today on EURCHF right after when the price was strongly made TBR (15min TF) from yesterday HVZ near 50%. Any thoughts or different ideas on this?"
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Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #35,377
  • Jan 13, 2022 11:05am Jan 13, 2022 11:05am
Quoting PranithR
Got this short trade today on EURCHF right after when the price was strongly made TBR (15min TF) from yesterday HVZ near 50%. Any thoughts or different ideas on this?" {image}
Looks like a good setup mate
  • #35,378
  • Jan 14, 2022 6:22am Jan 14, 2022 6:22am
Hai all.
Saw this quick scalp today.. on CJ. The trend was down. saw some strength on Point(S). price headed up but volume was decreasing. At the point of resistance as well as low of yesterdays HVZ, it made kind of 2BR.. up bar on volume less than previous to candle then next down bar increasing volume, waited for hulls to turn red and give some confirmation...
is there any other way to look at this trade? suggestions and advice are much appreciated. TIA
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Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #35,379
  • Jan 14, 2022 6:24am Jan 14, 2022 6:24am
Yesterday EJ short.

The previous day had a widespread up bar and notice the huge increase in volume compared to the previous bar. Climatic for sure. My entry was sloppy to say the least, I was over eager to enter the trade. I don't recommend at all trying to do what I did, however at the high there is a perfect failed test on the M30. Notice how the high of the test was never touched and how the next bar closes well below the low of the test.

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Today EC short.

Counter trend trade, so trade with caution. Early in Asia supply hit the market with a nice increase in spread and volume. After supply hit, on the M30 there was an up thrust at the highs with a gotcha bar pushing down and through the lows of a previous test.

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  • #35,380
  • Jan 14, 2022 6:29am Jan 14, 2022 6:29am
Quoting PranithR
Hai all. Saw this quick scalp today.. on CJ. The trend was down. saw some strength on Point(S). price headed up but volume was decreasing. At the point of resistance as well as low of yesterdays HVZ, it made kind of 2BR.. up bar on volume less than previous to candle then next down bar increasing volume, waited for hulls to turn red and give some confirmation... is there any other way to look at this trade? suggestions and advice are much appreciated. TIA {image}
You handled it perfectly.

The only thing I would point out is that where you entered is a double top into the low, which I think was important for selling the low.
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