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Monday Morning Market Update

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EUR/USD
The European currency shows a moderate decline against the US dollar during the Asian session, correcting after a significant increase last Friday, when investors were actively buying the single currency amid the publication of upbeat macroeconomic statistics from Europe. The Consumer Price Index in the euro area in December rose by 5% after increasing by 4.9% a month earlier. Analysts had expected the dynamics to slow down to 4.7%. At the same time, the Core Consumer Price Index retained the same dynamics at 2.6%, which also turned out to be slightly better than the market forecasts of a slowdown to 2.5%. Retail Sales in November showed a record growth of 7.8% after increasing by 1.7% a month earlier. Market expectations assumed the growth of the indicator by 5.6%. In turn, the American currency came under pressure after the release of the controversial report on the US labor market for December. In particular, Nonfarm Payrolls in December 2021 amounted to only 199K, having fallen from 249K in November. Forecasts suggested an increase of 400K.

GBP/USD
The British pound is trading near zero against the US currency during the morning session, consolidating around 1.3580 and local highs from November 9. At the end of the last trading week, the pound managed to demonstrate a fairly confident growth, which was the market's reaction to the emergence of not the strongest macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Investors were disappointed by the weak growth in Nonfarm Payrolls in December. The real dynamics turned out to be twice as bad as the market forecasts at the level of 400K, while the other parameters of the report turned out to be quite optimistic. The Unemployment Rate in December continued to decline and reached 3.9% after 4.2% in November. Statistics from the UK also did not help to clarify the situation on the market. Markit Construction PMI in December fell from 55.5 to 54.3 points, which turned out to be slightly better than the market forecasts of a decline to 54 points. Halifax House Prices in December remained unchanged at 1.1%, while investors expected it to decline to 0.7%.

NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar has seen a slight decline against the US currency during the Asian session, correcting after Friday's gains that interrupted a two-day "bearish" rally. Following the decline in the middle of last week, the New Zealand dollar renewed its local lows from December 21. The development of the downtrends was facilitated by the statements of the representatives of the US Fed, who signaled an imminent tightening of monetary policy in the country against the background of the continuing growth of inflation and stabilization in the labor market. In turn, Friday's report on the US labor market for December 2021 somewhat cooled the fervor of investors. Nonfarm Payrolls grew by only 199K in December, which turned out to be worse than not only the forecasts of 400K, but also the previous value of 249K. Trading activity today remains low due to the relatively empty macroeconomic calendar. Investors expect clarification of the situation with the prospects for tightening monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, but the news will appear only on Tuesday, when the Chair of the regulator Jerome Powell will give a speech in the US Congress.

USD/JPY
The US dollar shows restrained gains against the Japanese yen in Asian trading, testing 115.80 for a breakout. The instrument is recovering from its local lows, which were updated due to the development of "bearish" sentiments at the end of the last trading week. At the same time, the pair continues to hold near record highs. The positions of the American currency strengthened again last week after the publication of the "hawkish" minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which indicated the likelihood of a faster tightening of monetary policy by the American regulator in the near future. In particular, the US Fed may agree to the early completion of the quantitative easing (QE) program, which will entail a shift in the timing of the start of the cycle of raising interest rates. Statistics from Japan, released last Friday, leave much to be desired. Household Spending in November fell again by 1.3% after falling by 0.6% in October. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to appear at 1.6%. At the same time, Tokyo Consumer Price Index in December increased from 0.5% to 0.8%.

XAU/USD
Gold prices show a slight decline at the beginning of the new week, consolidating near 1800.00. Pressure on the instrument's position is exerted by the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting published last week, which indicated the "hawkish" position of the American regulator regarding the tightening of monetary policy. The US Fed notes high rates of growth in consumer inflation, as well as a tense situation in the labor market. At the same time, Friday's report on the US labor market showed weak growth in Nonfarm Payrolls. In December, only 199K jobs were created, while investors hoped to overcome 400K.

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USD/JPY
the market is waiting for the US inflation data

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Current trend
The US dollar is showing weak gains against the Japanese yen in Asian trading, trying to recover from a noticeable correction late last week.

The instrument is testing 115.35 for a breakout; however, market activity remains subdued as investors await the publication of the updated US inflation statistics for December today. According to forecasts, the annual rate of growth in consumer prices could reach 7%, which will be an absolute record in the last 40 years. In turn, the US Fed is ready to raise interest rates, and the first adjustment in the coming year may take place already at the March meeting. The Fed's Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at the US Congress the day before, confirmed the regulator's readiness to prevent further entrenchment of inflation, which until recently was called a "temporary phenomenon".

Statistics from Japan released today has an ambiguous impact on the dynamics of the instrument. The Eco Watchers Survey on Current Situation in December rose slightly from 56.3 to 56.4 points, but the Survey on the Economic Outlook for the same period fell sharply from 53.4 to 49.4 points.

Support and resistance
In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, pointing at the multidirectional nature of trading in the short term. MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a confident downward direction but is rapidly approaching its lows, which indicates the oversold USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 115.50, 116.00, 116.50, 117.00.
Support levels: 115.00, 114.50, 114.00, 113.50.

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AUDUSD Elliot Wave Analysis

The pair may fall.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the wave (2) of C. Now, wave C of (2) is developing, within which the first wave of the lower level i of C has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave ii of C, and the development of the third wave iii of C has started. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.6742–0.6446. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7277.

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United States of America
USD strengthens against JPY, has ambiguous dynamics against EUR, and is weakening against GBP.

Investors continue to discuss yesterday's comments by the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. In general, he did not say anything fundamentally new to the market and limited himself to confirming the regulator's plans, which had already been outlined earlier. Powell said that if the current economic situation persisted, the department would begin to normalize monetary policy. In March, the purchase of assets will be stopped, then an increase in rates and a reduction in the balance sheet will begin. The official also noted that the US economy no longer needs the support measures provided to it in connection with the pandemic, and therefore tightening of monetary policy is inevitable. However, there is still a long way before its final normalization. The December data on inflation in the country were published today, which recorded a further increase in the indicator. The CPI rose from 6.8% to 7.0% YoY, confirming experts' calculations, and the core CPI increased from 4.9% to 5.5% instead of the expected 5.4%. A further rise in prices strengthens investors' confidence that the US Federal Reserve will not back down from tightening monetary policy.

Eurozone
EUR is weakening against GBP and has ambiguous performance against JPY and USD.

Published today, November data on the volume of industrial production in the Eurozone countries were ambiguous. Production rose by 2.3% MoM, beating the 0.5% expected but declined by 1.5% YoY instead of the expected 0.6% increase. The German wholesale price index data for December recorded a slowdown in the growth. The indicator decreased from 1.3% to 0.2% MoM and from 16.6% to 16.1% YoY. Nevertheless, inflationary pressures in the German and generally European economies remain high. Today, the German Trade Association (BGA) warned of the possibility of new massive supply chain disruptions due to the rapid spread of the omicron coronavirus variant, but a long-term supply chain collapse is considered unlikely.

United Kingdom
GBP is strengthening against its main competitors – JPY, EUR, and USD.

Due to a lack of significant economic news, politics has become the focus of investors' attention. Today, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson officially admitted that he had attended a party with the participation of members of the government in May 2020 and thereby violated the quarantine rules in force at the time. Johnson apologized to the citizens and noted that he considered the event a working meeting, which required his presence. Labor Party members will accuse Johnson of cheating, and many experts believe the scandal could cost him his prime minister seat. Dissatisfaction with Johnson has been brewing for a long time, including among conservatives. He is accused of the inability to maximize the benefits of Brexit, unreasonable tax hikes, and insufficient activity in leveling economic conditions between different parts of the country. If Boris Johnson resigns, the UK will face a period of political uncertainty, which could negatively affect the position of GBP.

Japan
JPY is weakening against its main competitors – GBP, USD, and EUR.

Investors are focused on today's Bank of Japan's quarterly report on the regional economy. For the first time since October 2013, the regulator revised the estimates for all regions upward compared to the previous October economic report. The document says the impact of the coronavirus pandemic is waning, and Japan's economy continues to grow, especially in the private sector. However, the risks associated with the Omicron strain remain. Officials admitted that some regions remain in dire straits, but the overall economy is gradually recovering in all country regions. The Bank of Japan's optimistic assessment of the state of the economy increases the likelihood that the regulator will revise its forecasts for GDP growth and inflation for the current year upward.

Australia
AUD is strengthening against its main competitors – EUR, JPY, GBP, and USD.

AUD is growing despite the worsening epidemiological situation in the country. The daily number of sick citizens remains at record levels, putting serious pressure on the health care system, but the government is not introducing additional quarantine measures. The continued deterioration of the situation may negatively affect the Australian economy as a whole and, above all, slow down the service sector's recovery. The virus is currently scaring away customers of the airlines, entertainment, and hospitality sectors, which have already suffered from several blockages in the past two years.

Oil
Oil quotes continue to rise.

The API report published yesterday recorded a decline in US oil reserves by 1.077M barrels, slightly less than the expected volume of 1.950M barrels. Nevertheless, the decline has been going on for seven weeks in a row, which speaks of the sustainability of demand for "black gold" despite the Omicron pandemic. Investors are awaiting the release of a similar report from the EIA today. Oil reserves are expected to decline by 1.904M barrels. Implementation of the forecast may support the oil market.

Nasdaq 100: the market is preparing for the start of the reporting season

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Current trend
Nasdaq 100 quotes are correcting in an uptrend, regaining some of the losses of the previous week, and are trading at 15851.0. The main reason for the change in the trend in the asset was the correction in the domestic bond market.

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell to 1.732% from 1.765%. Conservative 20-year bonds, on the other hand, are trading at 2.119%, down 2.153% at the start of the week. In addition, the lack of a clear plan for changes in current monetary policy by the US Fed gives the tech sector hope that interest rates will remain low for a while.

Corporate reporting for 2021 kicks off next week, and analysts predict that most US tech companies will report significant earnings. For example, Procter & Gamble Co. earnings per share are expected to rise to 1.66 dollars from 1.61 dollars a quarter earlier, and Bank of America Corp. is projected to post revenues above 22.0B dollars.

The growth leaders in the index are Illuminia Inc. (+16.98%), MercadoLibre Inc. (+10.71%), JD.com Inc. (+10.29%), Lucid Group Inc. (+8.99%).
Among the leaders of the decline are Moderna Inc. (-5.27%), Exelon Corp. (-2.11%), Starbucks Corp. (-1.88%), Xcel Energy Inc. (-1.80%).

Support and resistance
The index quotes are traded within the global uptrend, correcting within the local Expanding Formation pattern. Technical indicators are in the state of a sell signal, but they do not exclude a correction: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator started narrowing, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the sale zone and ready to form ascending bars.

Support levels: 15565.0, 15175.0.
Resistance levels: 16000.0, 16600.0.

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USDCAD Wave Analysis

The pair is in a correction and may grow.
On the daily chart, a downward correction developed as the wave of the higher level 4, and the development of the fifth wave 5 started, within which the wave (1) of 5 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (1) is developing, within which the wave i of 3 has formed, and a local correction is ending as the wave ii of 3. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.3200–1.3410. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2285.

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USDCHF Wave Analysis

The pair may fall.

On the daily chart, the first downward wave of the higher level (1) of 3 formed, and an upward correction developed as the second wave (2) of 3, within which the wave C of (2) formed. Now, the development of the third wave (3) of 3 has started, within which the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.8921–0.8758. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9277.

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Wave Analysis

The price may grow.
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C formed, and a local correction developed as the second wave (2) of C, which took a shape of an irregular flat. Now, the wave C of (2) has formed, and the development of the third wave (3) of C has started. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 255.00–278.82. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 183.77.

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American Express Co, Elliot wave analysis

The price may grow.
On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which the wave 3 of (5) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 has formed, a local correction has developed as the fourth wave iv of 3, and the fifth wave v of 3 is forming, within which the wave (iii) of v is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 200.00–210.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 153.31.

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USD/JPY: US inflation reached a 40-year high

Current trend
The Japanese currency continues to trade in a stable sideways trend amid positive macroeconomic statistics. At the moment, USD/JPY is showing a downtrend, trading around 114.56.

During the period from November to December last year, Japan significantly improved its trade balance. The seasonally adjusted export-import ratio rose to 1.37T yen from 1.03T previously, suggesting a recovery in exports, which fell significantly in the fall quarter. Eco Watchers' Current Situation Index continues to be in positive area, reaching 56.4 points in December, up from 56.3 points in November.

In turn, the American currency has left the limits of a long narrow range and dropped below 95.000 in the USD Index after the release of yesterday's inflation report. The US Consumer Price Index in annual terms reached 7.0%, which coincided with the forecasts of most experts and has not been observed in the American economy for almost 40 years. Among the main reasons for the record growth in the indicator, analysts highlight the rise in the cost of housing and a significant rise in the price of cars. However, the most negative was caused by the comments of the representatives of the US Fed. The regulator recognized inflation as a serious long-term problem that will threaten the stability of the national economy and currency in the near future. Thus, the officials of the department have abandoned their previous statements that the rise in prices is a temporary phenomenon.

Support and resistance
USD/JPY is correcting within the global Expanding Formation pattern. Technical indicators are ready to reverse and give a signal for the start of sales: the fluctuation range of the Alligator indicator EMAs is narrowing and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new descending bars and approaching the transition level.
Support levels: 114.10, 112.00.
Resistance levels: 115.40, 116.30.

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United States of America
The US currency is weakening today against its main competitors – the euro, the pound and the yen.

The focus of investors' attention remains the December inflation data released in the USA. The consumer price index increased from 6.8% to 7.0%, and the basic consumer price index increased from 4.9% to 5.5%. In general, inflation is holding near forty-year highs, price growth is provided by an increase in the cost of renting housing and cars. A serious rise in prices has caused a number of experts to fear that the measures announced by the US Fed to tighten monetary policy may not be enough to bring inflation to the target of 2.0% this year. Moreover, supply disruptions, staff shortages, contributing to price increases, may intensify due to the growing coronavirus pandemic caused by the Omicron strain. The data published today on initial applications for unemployment benefits in the USA turned out to be weak, the indicator increased from 207K to 230K. But the total number of citizens receiving unemployment benefits continued to decline this time from 1,753M to 1,559M.

Eurozone
The European currency is weakening against the yen today, but is strengthening against the USD and the pound.

In the absence of significant economic releases, investors' attention is focused on the comments of officials of the European Central Bank, especially interesting in the context of a serious increase in inflation. So, today the vice-president of the European regulator Luis de Guindos said that the price growth in the eurozone is not as short-term as previously assumed, and risks exceeding the forecasts of officials this year. De Guindos noted that high energy prices and continuing problems in the supply of raw materials and components will contribute to an increase in inflation. In the long term, according to the official, inflationary pressure will weaken, and in 2023-24 it will be below the target level of 2.0%. It should be noted that earlier concerns about the prolonged price increase were already expressed by the head of the Bundesbank Joachim Nagel and ECB board member Isabel Schnabel. In general, there are more and more supporters of tightening monetary policy within the European regulator, which makes taking more active measures to combat inflation in the eurozone more realistic.

United Kingdom
The British currency is strengthening against the USD today, but is weakening against the euro and the yen.

The focus of British investors' attention remains the political crisis associated with the figure of Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Earlier, he admitted that he attended a party with members of the government in May 2020 and thereby violated the quarantine rules in force at that time. The media suggest that such parties may have been held more than once. Johnson's apology failed to calm either public opinion or the Prime Minister's political opponents. Moreover, he was called upon to resign by prominent members of the Conservative Party. They believe that Johnson undermines the trust of citizens in the conservatives, which can have negative consequences in the elections, so it is necessary to get rid of the prime minister, who has lost his former popularity, before it is too late. Boris Johnson himself is not going to leave yet, believing that he did not violate the rules of isolation. It should also be noted that today the British Minister of Health Sajid Javid is due to address Parliament with comments on the government's position on reducing the quarantine period from 7 to 5 days. According to officials, such a measure is necessary to alleviate the situation of employers affected by staff shortages.

Japan
The Japanese currency is strengthening against its main competitors – the pound, the USD and the euro.

Today, preliminary December data on the volume of orders in the engineering sector were published, which continued to slow down the growth rate. In December, it grew by 40.5%, which is less than the November increase of 64.0%. Economy Minister Daishiro Yamagiwa said that the government seeks to revive the economy by encouraging innovation in the private sector, rather than interfering in monetary policy. This may mean the official's departure from maintaining serious monetary incentives in the economy.

Australia
The Australian currency is strengthening against the USD today, but is weakening against the pound, the euro and the yen.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the focus of investors' attention remains the pandemic situation in Australia, which continues to worsen. Today, more than 147K infected citizens have been recorded in the country, which is a record for the entire time of the pandemic. The number of hospitalizations is also growing, although, according to officials, so far the health system is coping with the situation. High morbidity forces local authorities to soften the isolation criteria for citizens who have been in contact with the sick, as the business continues to suffer from a shortage of staff. Prime Minister Scott Morrison will hold a government meeting today to decide on new measures to support businesses and reduce pressure on supply chains.

Oil
Oil quotes are making moderate attempts to decline today.

The EIA report on oil and petroleum products reserves in the USA published earlier turned out to be mixed. A serious reduction in oil reserves by 4,553M barrels was offset by an increase in gasoline reserves by 7,961M barrels and distillate reserves – by 2.537M barrels.

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Exxon Mobil, a steady uptrend

Current trend
The stocks of Exxon Mobil Corp. ended last week at a new 52-week high. From a December 3-month low, the issuer grew by more than 18.5%, up 12.57% over the past week, while the S&P 500 fell by 2.12%.

Since the beginning of 2022, macroeconomic news has supported the instrument. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has issued a statement that the Omicron variant causes less severe disease, and the epidemic wave will quickly peak and subside by February. A strong December report on employment in the private sector, with the number of new jobs in 807K people, was twice as high as market expectations. At the same time, an increase in daily oil production by 400K barrels since February as part of the recent OPEC+ meeting increased investor confidence in market stability.

Also, last week Exxon Mobil Corp.'s biggest skeptic, Truist Financial Corp. analyst Neal Dingmann, upgraded its stock rating to Neutral, raising its price target from $50 to $65. The raise was based on his more favorable forecast for a dividend increase and share repurchases in 2022.

Support and resistance
Stocks are showing a steady uptrend, renewing the key extremes. Currently, the quotes are consolidating within the range of 68.00–71.50. There is potential for further growth. Indicators indicate the strength of buyers: the price has consolidated above MA (50) and MA (200), the MACD histogram is in the positive zone. It is better to open the positions from the key levels.

Comparative analysis of the company's multipliers and companies-competitors in the industry indicates the neutrality of the asset.

Resistance levels: 71.50, 75.00, 78.00.
Support levels: 68.00, 66.00, 63.50.

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Current trend
Pfizer Inc. stocks show an upward trend in trading, being above the 56.00 level.

The issuer's quotes continue to trade with strong volatility, as the asset is one of the most popular on exchanges in the USA. The recent announcement of a reduction in the number of employees in the field of direct sales caused the correction of the trading instrument, but the company reassured investors, saying that this would affect only a small group of 100-150 employees, half of whom would be offered new jobs in other areas.

Pfizer Inc. will publish its report for Q4 2021 on February 8, and according to analysts' forecasts, quarterly revenue will be about 24.2B dollars, and total annual revenue may exceed 80B dollars. As for the dividend policy, the register of shareholders closes on January 27 for the next quarterly payment on ordinary shares of 0.40 dollars, scheduled for March 4, 2022. The yield may be about 2.82% per annum.

Support and resistance
The company's quotes continue to trade in a global uptrend, correcting downwards within the framework of a local movement. Technical indicators are in the state of a global buy signal, and are working out a local correction: the fast EMAS of the alligator indicator are still above the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading at the transition level, forming alternating bars.

Resistance levels: 58.90, 63.00.
Support levels: 54.90, 50.80.

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EUR/USD: inflation data weakened the dollar

Current trend
Since the end of November, the EUR/USD pair has been trading within a sideways range of 1.1350–1.1230 but left it yesterday, rising to the area of 1.1450.
Positive dynamics followed the publication of US December inflation data, which confirmed its significant growth. The consumer price index increased from 6.8% to 7.0%, while the core consumer price index increased from 4.9% to 5.5%.

In general, inflation is holding around forty-year highs, and price growth is provided by increasing the cost of renting housing and cars. The situation raises concern among several experts who believe that the measures announced by the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy may not be enough to bring inflation to the target of 2.0% this year. Also, supply disruptions and staffing shortages, driving up prices, could be exacerbated by the escalating omicron coronavirus pandemic.

The European currency was in a better position, supported by data on industrial production, which rose by 2.3% for November, exceeding forecasts. European investors are also hoping that European Central Bank (ECB) officials will give in to pressure and announce new measures to reduce economic stimulus. For December, EU CPI rose by 5.0%, exceeding the regulator's estimates. These data strengthened the position of supporters of tightening monetary policy within the ECB, in particular, representatives of the Bundesbank. They can take over, after which the regulator will take more active measures to curb price growth, which will lead to the strengthening of the euro.

Support and resistance
The price approaches 1.1475 (Murrey [1/8], Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). Its breakout allows growth to 1.1535 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%), 1.1605 (Murrey [6/8], Fibonacci correction 61.8%). The key "bearish" level is 1.1350 (Murrey [2/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%). Its breakdown allows a decline to 1.1230 (Murrey [0/8]), 1.1200. Soon, positive dynamics seem more likely, as Bollinger bands and Stochastic reversed upwards, and the MACD histogram grows in the positive zone. The exit of the price chart beyond the upper Bollinger band does not exclude a downward correction, but its potential is limited.

Resistance levels: 1.1475, 1.1535, 1.1605.
Support levels: 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1200.

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Brent Oil, Elliot Wave Analysis

The price is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C developed. Now, a downward correction is forming as the second wave 2 of (1) of C, within which the wave of the lower level a of 2 has formed, and the wave b of 2 is ending. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will fall to the levels of 66.31–58.99. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 86.68.

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Gold Elliot wave analysis

The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which the first entry wave 1 of (5) formed, the correctional wave 2 of (5) developed, and the wave 3 of (5) forms. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of 3 is developing, within which a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of i, and the fifth wave (v) of i is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow within the wave to the levels of 1919.90–2067.60. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1752.82.