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The Swamp

  • #94,281
  • Jan 10, 2022 10:25am Jan 10, 2022 10:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if 1291 holds.. 1327 should come.. I left a 1367 pending short.
stepped out.. 1324 would have been a s/r .. close above may be st bullish. The range area high 1360/8x-ish. range area low 128x-ish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,282
  • Jan 10, 2022 10:37am Jan 10, 2022 10:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} h close above 1324 should put some up pressure after .. 1331 43 maybe 67
1.13159 turns to be supportive, so more upside movement is expected toward a new month high 1.13779...
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  • #94,283
  • Jan 10, 2022 10:58am Jan 10, 2022 10:58am
Quoting imwim
{quote} 1.13159 turns to be supportive, so more upside movement is expected toward a new month high 1.13779... {image}
i had thought 1318 could have held light support, but it didnt. My second choice was 1284/86. Yeah 1375/89 has R in it. I know it may run past 1367/68. But when its time for the larger closes. 1367 could be tough. It may be already hard R. I just think the bulls could run above only because 1367 (Dec close), is above 1331 and 1208. Bulls did this run up in November just before the month closed (+1331). And they did it in December just before the month ended (+1331). Other than that. I would preferer to be short. Those +1208 and 1331 closes have me more timid about 1439/47.

I wouldn't rule out a spike to 1439/47 before a LL run.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,284
  • Jan 10, 2022 11:04am Jan 10, 2022 11:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} h close above 1324 should put some up pressure after .. 1331 43 maybe 67
The 1h did close above 1324
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,285
  • Jan 10, 2022 11:30am Jan 10, 2022 11:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i had thought 1318 could have held light support, but it didnt. My second choice was 1284/86. Yeah 1375/89 has R in it. I know it may run past 1367/68. But when its time for the larger closes. 1367 could be tough. It may be already hard R. I just think the bulls could run above only because 1367 (Dec close), is above 1331 and 1208. Bulls did this run up in November just before the month closed (+1331). And they did it in December just before the month ended (+1331). Other than that. I would preferer to be short. Those +1208 and 1331 closes...
For the current month, there are 50.7 pips (only to reach the lowest monthly ATR over the past 6 years) yet to be achieved upward (1.14286=1.13779+0.00507) or downward (1.12210=1.12717-0.00507)...above 1.13248 the upward movement have the upper hand, while below viceversa...

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The 1h did close above 1324
1.13248 is right to the middle of current monthly ATR...
I am who I am
  • #94,286
  • Jan 10, 2022 12:04pm Jan 10, 2022 12:04pm
Quoting imwim
{quote} For the current month, there are 50.7 pips (only to reach the lowest monthly ATR over the past 6 years) yet to be achieved upward (1.14286=1.13779+0.00507) or downward (1.12210=1.12717-0.00507)...above 1.13248 the upward movement have the upper hand, while below viceversa... {quote} 1.13248 is right to the middle of current monthly ATR...
The 50 day ema stopped it 3 out of the last 4 times. @ 1371/72 atm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,287
  • Jan 10, 2022 12:10pm Jan 10, 2022 12:10pm
Quoting imwim
{quote} For the current month, there are 50.7 pips (only to reach the lowest monthly ATR over the past 6 years) yet to be achieved upward (1.14286=1.13779+0.00507) or downward (1.12210=1.12717-0.00507)...above 1.13248 the upward movement have the upper hand, while below viceversa... {quote} 1.13248 is right to the middle of current monthly ATR...
1.1171?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,288
  • Jan 10, 2022 12:38pm Jan 10, 2022 12:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1.1171?
1.11853 is the current low, while 1.22657 is the current high over past 52 weeks = 1080.4 pips volatility...the middle is 1.17255 possible beyond the current year all time high for which there are 2 candidates 1.15284 and 1.17035...for at least 800 pips volatility that means 1.07284 or 1.09035 the current year all time low...
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I am who I am
  • #94,289
  • Jan 10, 2022 1:00pm Jan 10, 2022 1:00pm
Quoting imwim
{quote} 1.11853 is the current low, while 1.22657 is the current high over past 52 weeks = 1080.4 pips volatility...the middle is 1.17255 possible beyond the current year all time high for which there are 2 candidates 1.15284 and 1.17035... {image}
Yea, well those damn fudis may stick a fork in the euro some. The U.S. can raise. The 2 mandates the Fed has is inflation and jobs. Inflation is high. Jobs at 3.9. These 2 realitys make the Fed raise.

EZ has that same inflation plus. So EZ people will be pissed about inflation. On the other hand. A raise may put many without a job. Wages are a smaller cost in heavy industrial production like cars. Commodities are the most expensive cost for BMW. At the top of that cost is energy. So if when BMW wants to build a car. They may be able to buy the steel cheaper from the U.S.,Japan, or China. Japan and China may have bought the scrap from the U.S. or Australia. All this shipping is costly. All this energy to melt steel is costly. The U.S. already has the iron/steel and the energy. Not to mention when a BMW is built. They put it on a ship to sell it in the U.S. It would be far cheaper for BMW to expand its U.S. production. If they can find enough workers.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,290
  • Edited 6:02pm Jan 10, 2022 5:34pm | Edited 6:02pm
Looks nice for a rise..
Inserted Video
  • #94,291
  • Jan 10, 2022 6:53pm Jan 10, 2022 6:53pm
Too much bacon can get you a pig heart https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59944889
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,292
  • Jan 11, 2022 12:47am Jan 11, 2022 12:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} h close above 1324 should put some up pressure after .. 1331 43 maybe 67
So far unable to take 1343. I had it and 1339 as some r. I dont know if i'm right. I just think the week close, and month. Should at least test 1367. maybe 1389 . Even 1439/47 is possible. In earlier post I said pa has to start closing above 1390 or greater to get to 1439. I know the high is 1386 the last day of December. But i think 1389 is more important. Even 1367/68 could be a permanent top. I will give 1367 about a 30% chance of being a top. And later 1343 or 1339 can play that role. Pa made it to 1364 last week. I may be wrong. I still expect a spike before a fall. Just because the week and month closed above 1331. Fundis wise. I dont see why the bottom dont break/ Its just that big ass 1208. And these closes above 1331. imo
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,293
  • Jan 11, 2022 1:17am Jan 11, 2022 1:17am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} So far unable to take 1343. I had it and 1339 as some r. I dont know if i'm right. I just think the week close, and month. Should at least test 1367. maybe 1389 . Even 1439/47 is possible. In earlier post I said pa has to start closing above 1390 or greater to get to 1439. I know the high is 1386 the last day of December. But i think 1389 is more important. Even 1367/68 could be a permanent top. I will give 1367 about a 30% chance of being a top. And later 1343 or 1339 can play that role. Pa made it to 1364 last week. I may be wrong. I still...
DXY is selling.. there is also a gap fill that need to be taken out in the selling direction. Lets see how far it rises..
We have been in sell mode with the DX since the 15 of Dec.
13189 if it drop we will get some reistance that will power it higher..
  • #94,294
  • Jan 11, 2022 3:49am Jan 11, 2022 3:49am
for longs
1.133 support
1.132 second support

shorts only below .

annoying range but probably expecting Powel testimony atm
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,295
  • Jan 11, 2022 6:29am Jan 11, 2022 6:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} h close above 1324 should put some up pressure after .. 1331 43 maybe 67
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} So far unable to take 1343. I had it and 1339 as some r. I dont know if i'm right. I just think the week close, and month. Should at least test 1367. maybe 1389 . Even 1439/47 is possible. In earlier post I said pa has to start closing above 1390 or greater to get to 1439. I know the high is 1386 the last day of December. But i think 1389 is more important. Even 1367/68 could be a permanent top. I will give 1367 about a 30% chance of being a top. And later 1343 or 1339 can play that role. Pa made it to 1364 last week. I may be wrong. I still...

A little confusing atm, .. But the 1h above 1324. 12 h did close above 1331 and 1324... atm is holding closes. It may still rise w/o 1318. Or that may be it. i just thought last weeks close would force 1367
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,296
  • Jan 11, 2022 6:33am Jan 11, 2022 6:33am
Quoting q_import
{quote} DXY is selling.. there is also a gap fill that need to be taken out in the selling direction. Lets see how far it rises.. We have been in sell mode with the DX since the 15 of Dec. 13189 if it drop we will get some reistance that will power it higher..
yeah, If 1324 and 31 let it. st bullish still above 1324,,as long as it continues above closing. Atm between 1324 soft support, and 1343. Being close to 1367 this can be expected for some slapping around the bulls
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,297
  • Jan 11, 2022 6:47am Jan 11, 2022 6:47am
I dont know it 1324 will hold support now. But if it does, Some smaller closes above 1339,, are bullish, The thing is 1343 is acting like R, those closes need to be above 1343/ Pa may move too fast before getting the close. I could be wrong, and if I am. pa will test 1318.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,298
  • Jan 11, 2022 6:57am Jan 11, 2022 6:57am
Quoting gatorinla
I dont know if it (1324) will hold support now. But if it does, Some smaller closes above 1339,, are bullish, The thing is 1343 is acting like R, those closes need to be above 1343/ Pa may move too fast before getting the close. I could be wrong, and if I am. pa will test 1318.
.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,299
  • Jan 11, 2022 7:02am Jan 11, 2022 7:02am
We may have to wait another h to see where NY starts its day push ..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,300
  • Jan 11, 2022 7:09am Jan 11, 2022 7:09am
Quoting gatorinla
We may have to wait another h to see where NY starts its day push ..
Ok first h clock running.. let's see where NY pushes.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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