The Swamp | Page 4712 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #94,221
  • Jan 7, 2022 8:59am Jan 7, 2022 8:59am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} this time we need 2 hours
couldn't we just wait for it to hit R w/o the drawdown? ADR at 1356
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,222
  • Jan 7, 2022 9:05am Jan 7, 2022 9:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} couldn't we just wait for it to hit R w/o the drawdown? ADR at 1356
well i mean not sure what they are waiting if there was a reason to go long eur/usd i guess is now
but not so much conviction.

maybe conflicting wage increase + low unemployment against a good NFP number is confusing.

earnings season staring next week - my idea will be a range for the markets
and probably still the same with usd.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,223
  • Jan 7, 2022 9:09am Jan 7, 2022 9:09am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} well i mean not sure what they are waiting if there was a reason to go long eur/usd i guess is now but not so much conviction. maybe conflicting wage increase + low unemployment against a good NFP number is confusing. earnings season staring next week - my idea will be a range for the markets and probably still the same with usd.
wages go up .6% on a 3.9% rate. The 199k is BS it will be revised higher like the past 2 months. Its just more people starting a business are not counted. In the employed category with lapse time. They will be in the revisions later. .6% is inflation. The labor market is very tight. We have a labor shortage in the millions.

See pa acting opposite? Don't stand in front that.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,224
  • Jan 7, 2022 9:17am Jan 7, 2022 9:17am
1331 is the larger level.. But it wasn't given respect.. I think 1331 is why 1323/43 was developed. I think 1331 is a big old tree stump maybe bigger than 1208. The year close 1367/68 being above 1331. November and Dec close did respect it. It was respected even after pa was below 1208. So I need it and 1208 closed below on a large TF. Above them the larger close at 1447.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,225
  • Jan 7, 2022 9:18am Jan 7, 2022 9:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} wages go up .6% on a 3.9% rate. The 199k is BS it will be revised higher like the past 2 months. Its just more people starting a business are not counted. In the employed category with lapse time. They will be in the revisions later. .6% is inflation. The labor market is very tight. We have a labor shortage in the millions. See pa acting opposite? Don't stand in front that.
probably goes higher looking for a pullback.
but i guess 1.14 is right around the corner

don't feel like shorting into the weekend also markets lower now. .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.png Size: 3 KB
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,226
  • Jan 7, 2022 9:42am Jan 7, 2022 9:42am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} probably goes higher looking for a pullback. but i guess 1.14 is right around the corner don't feel like shorting into the weekend also markets lower now. . {image}
I didnt know about 1331 till early this week or late last week. Remember I struggled when pa kept closing between 1323 and 1343. I know why now. I think i know why 1.00 eludded pa also now. 1208 may take some time. 1447 odds increased some in my evaluation. Last weeks high, was near the 1/2 way point. Between 1331 and 1447. Thats at 1389. So since the year did close above 1331. Lets see if it has any new powers.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,227
  • Jan 7, 2022 9:47am Jan 7, 2022 9:47am
Quoting gatorinla
1331 is the larger level.. But it wasn't given respect.. I think 1331 is why 1323/43 was developed. I think 1331 is a big old tree stump maybe bigger than 1208. The year close 1367/68 being above 1331. November and Dec close did respect it. It was respected even after pa was below 1208. So I need it and 1208 closed below on a large TF. Above them the larger close at 1447.
it doesn't matter
we are traders. gonna trade the price.
support now 1.131 / 1.132 for longs
but it's still a range

eur has zero reasons to go up but who cares.
even this stupid thing about Stock market going down and eur/usd up is a dumb thing
FED is clear about tapper, QT, and rates.

unemployment 3.9% inflation above 5% - FED funds rate 0 ... - US 10yy 1.8 % Germand bunds 10y 0.038
go figure
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,228
  • Jan 7, 2022 9:48am Jan 7, 2022 9:48am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I didnt know about 1331 till early this week or late last week. Remember I struggled when pa kept closing between 1323 and 1343. I know why now. I think i know why 1.00 eludded pa also now. 1208 may take some time. 1447 odds increased some in my evaluation. Last weeks high, was near the 1/2 way point. Between 1331 and 1447. Thats at 1389. So since the year did close above 1331. Lets see if it has any new powers.
so that at Boulder. mine was 1.134 and 1.138 if us market doesn;'t go down big i would short 1.138 maybe on monday
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,229
  • Jan 7, 2022 9:56am Jan 7, 2022 9:56am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} so that at Boulder. mine was 1.134 and 1.138 if us market doesn;'t go down big i would short 1.138 maybe on monday
1331 is like a black hole. I knew about 1323 and 1343. Something kept drawing between them. I knew about 1208 and 1447. I figured 1327.5. Now I know 1331 is the reason. Its the reason for 1447 and 1208. 1331 is older. Not really older than 1208. 1331 was started earlier, but completed at the same moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 11 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,230
  • Jan 7, 2022 10:02am Jan 7, 2022 10:02am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1331 is like a black hole. I knew about 1323 and 1343. Something kept drawing between them. I knew about 1208 and 1447. I figured 1327.5. Now I know 1331 is the reason. Its the reason for 1447 and 1208. 1331 is older. Not really older than 1208. 1331 was started earlier, but completed at the same moment. {image}
My point being. The year close above 1331. Would open that range to 1439 and 1447 some. If pa is above 1367 be careful with your shorts. These last 2 months are no comparison in these levels time frames.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,231
  • Jan 7, 2022 10:47am Jan 7, 2022 10:47am
1284 was well tagged as support.

if the extension of wave one is the final wave five then 1373 is a near target
  • #94,232
  • Jan 7, 2022 10:58am Jan 7, 2022 10:58am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My point being. The year close above 1331. Would open that range to 1439 and 1447 some. If pa is above 1367 be careful with your shorts. These last 2 months are no comparison in these levels time frames.
Starting the 1st out of 3 rate hike made by FED in March, the EURUSD swap will be positive all over the road and sell will be more and more attractive in the long run....
I am who I am
  • #94,233
  • Jan 7, 2022 11:02am Jan 7, 2022 11:02am
i started shorting, but just small for now.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,234
  • Jan 7, 2022 11:32am Jan 7, 2022 11:32am
Quoting DMA Trader
i started shorting, but just small for now.
GU is gonna be fun already 400 pips up from bottom
can we get closer to 1.37 ? what is GBP going to do now that is rising so nice ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,235
  • Jan 7, 2022 1:32pm Jan 7, 2022 1:32pm
China's $1 trillion 'artificial sun' fusion reactor just got five times hotter than the sun...
https://www.livescience.com/chinas-1...r-than-the-sun

Inserted Video
I am who I am
  • #94,236
  • Jan 7, 2022 4:45pm Jan 7, 2022 4:45pm
Quoting imwim
China's $1 trillion 'artificial sun' fusion reactor just got five times hotter than the sun... https://www.livescience.com/chinas-1...r-than-the-sun https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3x-...83%BD%E7%9C%BC
If this can happen, with hydrogen deuterium are readily available. Very cheap, cheap as seawater. Make steam to power all electric generation. No need for burning hydrocarbons again. That would be a game changer for China and the world.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,237
  • Jan 7, 2022 8:02pm Jan 7, 2022 8:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
Dec was the second month pa refused to close below 1208 and 1331. Dec closed higher than November. But still below 1447. Bearish below 1447.. but bullish above those 1208. Maybe the range rises more toward 1447. The upper end of that range 138x.To break 1208, pa may have to go higher. To break 1447, pa would have to go higher. But 1331 may gain some power at any time. Flip a coin. What wont go down, will go up. How high? When? If those like 1323 43 dont work 1331 may.. but it most often takes more than 120 pips or momentum to break large levels....
Missed a little atm
Quoting gatorinla
I think 1367 is minimal. Other R 1370 86, 88 and so forth. These are on the lower end.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,238
  • Jan 8, 2022 2:08am Jan 8, 2022 2:08am
Either 1439, or if the atm high holds. A retrace to 1328 minimal next. 1328 will void with a HH.

ATm st bulls have not reached 1390. So the chance to retrace is a little better, than it will be after 1390 is held. Bulls st also have to hold 1389+. Or pa will retrace some. That would be a HH, so that retrace# is unknown atm.
Now since it will be Sunday. Pa sometimes retraces on the new week. 1328 minimal, only if Friday's high holds. Just like last week it dropped after open. To get to 1328 there are the normal supports such as 1343, 31 before 1328. I'm saying 1328 if it dont make a hh. So it can bounce anywhere above 1328, and make a higher high before reaching 1328. There may be a short trade there against a hh. or there may be a short trade against 1439. That's a personal choice. I stated 1390 has to hold support for bulls to do this.
Below 1328 are some minor st levels.. 1324/25 (just above 1323), and 1318. As for as a drop below 1318. 1318 may act like 1309 did Thursday. It may slip a little under. But if the 1h closes hold above. It would act like a st support, Bears will not be able to drop w/o 1318 giving up. Then that cluster of supports below it.

The same old shit with 1284 not holding like last week. Lots of support 1284-1318. The consolidation just makes forecasting worse. It will likely take a wtf type of move below 1208 to drop. Dec 31 in this range was in the hh area, then that 127x/8x retrace made several bounces.

Just like 1284 last week, bulls have make it to 1389+ st (yes a HH over Dec 31), or pa will be drawn to 1331. This is separate from the above and 1328. So even with a HH, A possible head fake may be waiting for bulls. And after that retrace, pa may test 1331 again. Another head fake, before rising. It not rise at 1331, but that HH. Should bring pa to 1339. I'm saying to get there. Bulls need to close 1390. Or it will retrace. Ok this is st.
On a larger tf. If bulls could manage 1439 and 1447. Easier said than done. Bulls would need to sustain 1447 and +1474. Or it will go back to 1331ish.

Bears to me can't set up a LL. Until pa starts closing below 1275, and later -1230. With pa below, then 1230 starts holding as R. If The Dec 31 high does hold. And pa starts to close and hold -1275. It would give 1230 a better shot. All these type move can be filtered out the consolidation cluster.

Bears you dont want a HH. You want 1318 to act as R. Then you want to get below 1275. You want 1275 to act as R. Then you want -1275 to become R. The same concerning -1230, and -1208.

Anyway this is what I see for the next week, or several weeks in the future. All based on a hh st, mt, or no hh.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,239
  • Jan 8, 2022 2:09am Jan 8, 2022 2:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If this can happen, with hydrogen deuterium are readily available. Very cheap, cheap as seawater. Make steam to power all electric generation. No need for burning hydrocarbons again. That would be a game changer for China and the world.
If this can happen, we'll colonize other planets as well...another must to have is to fully understand the DNA...
I am who I am
  • #94,240
  • Jan 8, 2022 12:48pm Jan 8, 2022 12:48pm
Quoting imwim
China's $1 trillion 'artificial sun' fusion reactor just got five times hotter than the sun... https://www.livescience.com/chinas-1...r-than-the-sun https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3x-...83%BD%E7%9C%BC
their saying 2040.. https://gadgets.ndtv.com/science/new...werful-2689732
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
63 traders viewing now