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The Swamp

  • #94,181
  • Jan 6, 2022 6:10am Jan 6, 2022 6:10am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} oh well i tried to get it before it went to 1323. It only went to 1304.7, I missed it,,on here way to 1323+, cancel trade {image}
1343 was ordained. 1323 was not. 1343 will n0t be able to hold out forever. 1323 was missed off 1309 yesterday. Pa wanted its 3 pips. Got em now. But still need 1258. Bears need -1284 sustained with closure. All this rejection may have it retesting 1343 and 12367. With those 3 pips now. It may drop.. With NFP coming. I may wait for 1367. Its has to retake 1309 now its got those 3 pips, 1309 didnt give up easily yesterday evening.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,182
  • Jan 6, 2022 6:17am Jan 6, 2022 6:17am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1343 was ordained. 1323 was not. 1343 will n0t be able to hold out forever. 1323 was missed off 1309 yesterday. Pa wanted its 3 pips. Got em now. But still need 1258. Bears need -1284 sustained with closure. All this rejection may have it retesting 1343 and 12367. With those 3 pips now. It may drop.. With NFP coming. I may wait for 1367. Its has to retake 1309 now its got those 3 pips, 1309 didnt give up easily yesterday evening.
If pa cant take 1284/86 with large closes. Then 1258 and 1208. It has the attraction to 1439/40. But now 1367 could just bitch pa down to 1208. Pa is in consolidation.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,183
  • Jan 6, 2022 6:38am Jan 6, 2022 6:38am
1367 and 1368 may be interchangeable. Some R there and overshoot at 1376. The older R 1386/88. I'm being as neutral is I can. . Its below 1343 and these others. I can change above 1343. To the next level. 1367 I think 1367 will end up Large R, we may not come back to later. Or large S to break later. I'm on the bear side longer term. Before that 1367 may be tested. I'm a fan of 1343 and 1323. But 1323 hasn't been respected with 1258 yet. This may just be sideways before NFP.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,184
  • Jan 6, 2022 6:59am Jan 6, 2022 6:59am
For the future.. 1175/ 2x has 3 supports in there. too lazy to post atm. I did post them a while back. .. make the -1208 drop, and expect the same pa like the last few days w/o 1.0969 and 1.1048. If pa reaches these. You need large closes below these, to aid 1208 as a R .If not, she will rise back to 1208. Back to bed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,185
  • Jan 6, 2022 7:14am Jan 6, 2022 7:14am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 44,212.81 has some week support too. 43,479.46 another 40919.82 {image}
are we there yet ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,186
  • Jan 6, 2022 7:17am Jan 6, 2022 7:17am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} German 10y now at 0.05 ! big move. above any levels in covid close to april of 2019 very bullish market going against Lagarde.
here imo is very simple. everybody now attacking euro
having a huge inflation number and negative rates traders will now push into Lagarde court.

Lagarde hopes that inflation goes down - Omicron and supply constraints keep inflation up
if Lagarde gives up we will see a 500 pip day upside in one day imo
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,187
  • Jan 6, 2022 7:19am Jan 6, 2022 7:19am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} here imo is very simple. everybody now attacking euro having a huge inflation number and negative rates traders will now push into Lagarde court. Lagarde hopes that inflation goes down - Omicron and supply constraints keep inflation up if Lagarde gives up we will see a 500 pip day upside in one day imo
and a reminder
this is the reason we have a strong support at 1.12 - traders will just go against Lagarde.
Every inflation number from now on will help eur and downside will make new lows into eur/usd

sooner or later ECB will have to act. and the bigger the inflation without them acting the bigger the jump in eur/usd once ECB gives up.

FED talked yesterday about the possibility of supply constraints into 2023
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,188
  • Jan 6, 2022 7:52am Jan 6, 2022 7:52am
0.07: No Time to Die...

Inserted Video
I am who I am
  • #94,189
  • Jan 6, 2022 10:15am Jan 6, 2022 10:15am
So we cleared the options expiry for today. One more round tomorrow at 10 AM east coast. The EURUSD looks like they will keep us hovering in the same range around 1.13 again.....but note that there are some huge options on other pairs that might shake the dollar a little.
https://www.forexlive.com/Orders/fx-...-cut-20220105/

Tomorrow has the big employment numbers at 8:30 AM EC. These have been fairly good for shaking things up as the estimates are normally wrong.

So pending no big announcements by the EU or other political suicide news, we should be range bound I hope.

Good luck on your trades and I hope everyone is printing money chasing the zig zags.
Wick versus candlestick ratio will set you free.
  • #94,190
  • Jan 6, 2022 10:26am Jan 6, 2022 10:26am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} and a reminder this is the reason we have a strong support at 1.12 - traders will just go against Lagarde. Every inflation number from now on will help eur and downside will make new lows into eur/usd sooner or later ECB will have to act. and the bigger the inflation without them acting the bigger the jump in eur/usd once ECB gives up. FED talked yesterday about the possibility of supply constraints into 2023
Yeah that inflation sucks. They may have to eat it for a while. I think its little more complicated. Europe love/needs tourism. That industry is on its knees. Raising the Euro is raising the cost for Americans to visit. Raising the Euro is raising the price on BMWs. I dont know the solution. I know its very complicated. Energy is the Achilles heel. No matter what, things will cost more for EZ. EZ only solution is decades away toward the sun. In 1972 the ez basket of currency was worth about 0.5x. The Euro can still lose 50% of value. Petro $s are going to revert back to the U.S. That's just the handwriting on the wall.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,191
  • Jan 6, 2022 10:54am Jan 6, 2022 10:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah that inflation sucks. They may have to eat it for a while. I think its little more complicated. Europe love/needs tourism. That industry is on its knees. Raising the Euro is raising the cost for Americans to visit. Raising the Euro is raising the price on BMWs. I dont know the solution. I know its very complicated. Energy is the Achilles heel. No matter what, things will cost more for EZ. EZ only solution is decades away toward the sun. In 1972 the ez basket of currency was worth about 0.5x. The Euro can still lose 50% of value. Petro...
TUrkey has 36% inflation last year. and lowering rates.
ECB doing the same thing ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,192
  • Jan 6, 2022 11:00am Jan 6, 2022 11:00am
Notice how small agriculture is. So if your not growing much agriculture. Your importing it. Agriculture is something inflation readily easily hits. Raising prices on EZ, German exports could easily shave points off that 2.5% GDP. It seems very complicated to me. The U.S. has inflation also. But oil actually helps the u.s, comparably. The U.S. has more jobs than people to fill them. That German industrial production may suffer with a higher Euro. Its cheaper for BMW to hire more U.S. workers. And close Some German lines. I'm just saying. That's what business does. I dont hear the Tennis players wanting to be paid in Euros anymore. Like in 2007 things change. Europe better advance its EV and solar production.
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth

The German economy expanded 1.7% on quarter in Q3 2021, slightly below 1.8% in the preliminary estimate and an upwardly revised 2% in the previous period, final figures showed. Household expenditure jumped 6.2% and was the only driver of growth while government reduced its consumption by 2.2% and gross fixed capital formation fell for a second quarter, mainly machinery and equipment (-3.7%) and construction (-2.3%). Exports of goods and services were down 1% and imports decreased 0.6% as more services were imported than in the previous quarter. Year-on-year, the economy advanced 2.5%, matching preliminary estimates.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,193
  • Jan 6, 2022 11:03am Jan 6, 2022 11:03am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} TUrkey has 36% inflation last year. and lowering rates. ECB doing the same thing ?
I said its complicated. The Euro jumped 300% in 35 years . It took 1.5 years to give more than 1/2 back.

Raising the Euro may severely hurt recovering economies GDP. When you have a +2.5 economy. It dont take much to make it negative.

Start a online business selling garden supplies for small EZ gardens. Demand should be increasing.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,194
  • Jan 6, 2022 11:21am Jan 6, 2022 11:21am
need a push.. over -120x.. this consolidation with bounces may take some more time. until one day it happens..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,195
  • Jan 6, 2022 11:58am Jan 6, 2022 11:58am
Quoting gatorinla
need a push.. over -120x.. this consolidation with bounces may take some more time. until one day it happens.. {image}
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,196
  • Jan 6, 2022 12:15pm Jan 6, 2022 12:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I said its complicated. The Euro jumped 300% in 35 years . It took 1.5 years to give more than 1/2 back. Raising the Euro may severely hurt recovering economies GDP. When you have a +2.5 economy. It dont take much to make it negative. Start a online business selling garden supplies for small EZ gardens. Demand should be increasing.
it's simple

reminder Prediction

1.00 before 1.27
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,197
  • Jan 6, 2022 12:51pm Jan 6, 2022 12:51pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} it's simple reminder Prediction 1.00 before 1.27
If you can get -1.1208 and -1.070 first. Then sustain them as R. A little at a time. 1.1447 achieved ?. 1.1367? trying now. But 1.1206/13 in the way atm. Maybe NFP will help..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,198
  • Jan 6, 2022 2:34pm Jan 6, 2022 2:34pm
Hopefully the energy will pick up as Japan opens and we can coast down to the 1265 mark and then rocket back up to 1.13 or above. Rise and repeat while we are in the triangles. I like 30 pip candles....they remind that there are always some sharks in the water.
Wick versus candlestick ratio will set you free.
  • #94,199
  • Jan 6, 2022 8:47pm Jan 6, 2022 8:47pm
From TA perspective only (and a bad NFP will help this view), I think EU is retracing up to 1.1440 (which is the retrace of the impulsive and deep wave down) before continuing down to up 1.100x-1.099x. GL!
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  • #94,200
  • Jan 7, 2022 1:34am Jan 7, 2022 1:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If you can get -1.1208 and -1.070 first. Then sustain them as R. A little at a time. 1.1447 achieved ?. 1.1367? trying now. But 1.1206/13 in the way atm. Maybe NFP will help..
6 hours to go . but expectation i see are low.
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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