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EURUSD | GBPYSD | USDJPY

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Today we will be looking at euro dollar, GBP USD, and USD JPY weekly and daily charts.

EURUSD
The Euro Dollar downside momentum from 1.226 eased at the Fibonacci 61.8 level near 1.118. The candles formed a "bullish Doji star" and a "hammer" pattern forecasting an upcoming trend reversal. The pattern can be spotted in the daily chart. Indicator-wise, the MACD shows a divergence in the trend. So far the outcome of the MACD divergence was the trend decline slowing down around 1.118 and moving sideways. Minor resistance exists at 1.138. With a break of this fragile sealing, the instrument would probably target 1.15. On the other hand, we'll witness more decline in the pair if the support at 1.118 fails.

GBPUSD bounced from the 38.2 retracement level of the Fibonacci, and it is trading close to the minor support at 1.341. With a breach in the said level, the pound sterling surge to 1.366 would probably be seen in the next few days. 38.2 Fibo at 1.3158 is the conservative support. If this level breaks, the next target would be level 50 of the Fibonacci retracement around 1.225.
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USDJPY
The bulls have an outstanding performance against the bears on the JPY USD pair. Buyers didn't cute their pressure on passing the resistance at 114.4, and the market is on its way to test the sealing for the fifth time in the last 10 days. Support is at 111.66. As long as this level holds, the market trend is bullish. Resistance is at 115.53, with a break of the level, the path of the bull to 118.66 will be paved.

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How to Trade the MACD Indicator

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We prepared a tutorial video of how to trade with the MACD indicator. In this tutorial, you will learn about the MACD crossover and the MACD divergence signals.
We hope this video helps you to have a better concept of the market and trade more efficiently.

Gold | EURUSD

28.12.2021

The euro dollar is being compressed between the jaws shown on the screen. The market would flee in one direction with a break in any of the said levels. The 1.152 level would probably be tested if 1.383 breaks.

We will have more decline in the channel if 1.22 won't be able to hold the sell pressure.

Gold | 29.12.2021

Today we are looking at the gold 4 hours chart.

The yellow metal breached the $1814 resistance yesterday, but the bulls couldn't hold the price above the said level. The instrument is trading near the 23.6 Fibonacci retracements. The upward trendline from December 22, and December 27 failed to keep the bullish sentiment.

Below the $1800 support is level 50 of the Fibonacci. If this minor support fails, the path to $1784 will be paved for the bears.

Trading Signal
The trend is bullish, and minor resistance will be seen from the bears here and there. Solid ECN statistic shows that the buyers' target is $1830 and $1850 checkpoints with the risk of stopping at $1784.

On the other hand, the bears are targeting $1784 with risking the December higher high at $1820.

USDCHF

29.12.2021

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The USD/CHF pair continues to trade within a wide ascending channel. This week, the quotes once again reached its lower limit in the area of the reversal level 0.9155 ([6/8]) and in case of a breakout, they will be able to continue moving to the upper limit of the central Murray channel 0.9094 ([5/8]) or to the central mark of the trading range 0.9033 ([4/8]). If the level of 0.9216 ([7/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands) breaks out, the growth of the trading instrument to 0.9277 ([8/8]) and 0.9338 ([+1/8]) is likely.

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally, the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone, but the Stochastic reverses up in the oversold zone.

Support and resistance

1. Resistance levels: 0.9216, 0.9277, 0.9338
2. Support levels: 0.9155, 0.9094, 0.9033

USD/CAD

Trading Instrument may Resume Growth

29.12.2021

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Current trend
A week ago, the USD/CAD currency pair went into a correction and reached the middle line of the Bollinger Bands around 1.2800.

The Canadian currency was supported by higher oil prices and strong GDP statistics.
In October, the country's economy expanded too, this time by 0.8%, while all its major sectors showed approving dynamics: industrial production, retail trade, construction, tourism, and entertainment sector.

Experts believe that in the coming months, the growth of indicators may slow down or even decline against the background of a new wave of coronavirus that is rapidly spreading around the world and causing economic restrictions, including in Canada.

The positions of the US currency currently also do not look stable, since the increase in the incidence of the Omicron strain exacerbates the shortage of personnel in many companies, thereby reducing the level of services provided to the population and slowing the growth of business activity. Nevertheless, in the long term, the position of the US currency is highly valued by experts, since the rhetoric of the US Fed aimed at adjusting monetary policy next year will undoubtedly support the exchange rate of the national currency.

Support and resistance
The price of the USD/CAD pair is trying to resume growth from the 1.2800 level. A breakout of 1.2860 (61.8% Fibo expansion) will be the catalyst for the movement of the trading instrument to the levels of 1.2940 (Murray [6/8], Fibo retracement 38.2%), 1.3060 (Murray [7/8]), 1.3185 (Murray [8/8], Fibo retracement 50.0%, extension 100.0%).

If consolidated below 1.2800, the downward dynamics may resume to the levels of 1.2695 (Murray [4/8]), 1.2600 (Fibo retracement 23.6%).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the MACD histogram decreases in the positive zone, but the Stochastic leaves the oversold zone, forming a buy signal.


Resistance levels: 1.2860, 1.2940,1.3060, 1.3185.
Support levels: 1.2800, 1.2695, 1.2600.

GBP/USD

lower volatility is a catalyst for price correction

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The British currency is gradually adding in value against the background of lower volatility and is currently correcting upward around 1.3487.

The country continues to occupy a leading position in terms of the incidence of the Omicron strain. According to the National Health Safety Agency (UKHSA), the number of confirmed cases of the new mutation currently exceeds 210K, and the day before, the highest daily number of COVID-19 infected since the beginning of the pandemic was recorded at 183,037.

Meanwhile, the energy crisis continues to develop in the UK, as a result of which 26 companies have already filed for bankruptcy amid an unprecedented rise in wholesale prices for gas and electricity. The leaders of the industry's leading enterprises have asked the government to reduce the value added tax rate for them, and, according to preliminary information, the meeting will take place on January 3.

The American currency is at the previous levels, showing no trading activity. Perhaps tomorrow's data on the number of Initial Jobless Claims will be able to change the situation. According to analysts, the figure may rise to 208K from 205K a week earlier, and the total number of beneficiaries may rise up to 1.868M people. Even in the case of fixing changes, this is unlikely to have a serious impact on the dollar quotes, since most of the large positions on the asset were liquidated last week.

Support and resistance
GBP/USD is trading within the global downtrend channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators are holding a local buy signal: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the buy zone, forming ascending bars.

Support levels: 1.3362, 1.3170.
Resistance levels: 1.3566, 1.3850.

AUD/USD

The potential for further growth may be limited

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The AUD/USD pair has been showing upward trading dynamics since the beginning of this month and is currently testing the 0.7263 mark.

The strengthening of the position of the trading instrument was the result of rising commodity prices, as well as some easing of restrictions on Australian exports from China. In particular, Beijing adjusted quotes for the supply of wool from Australia by 5%, so next year producers will be able to increase the volume of production to 40K tons instead of the current 38K tons. This decision confirms the opinion of a number of Australian experts that China will not be able to completely abandon Australian raw materials, even in conditions of serious political tension.

Further strengthening of the Australian currency remains in question, as the country is experiencing a serious surge in the incidence of coronavirus caused by the Omicron strain. The number of infected citizens is increasing, and many of them have to be isolated, which creates problems for doing business. The authorities even had to weaken the testing criteria in order not to exclude a sufficiently large number of Australians from economic life. Thus, further deterioration of the epidemiological situation may well lead to new quarantine restrictions in early 2022.

As for the US currency, its position also does not look stable, since in the USA the incidence is growing at a record pace, which may lead to new economic restrictions. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of data from the labor market. In the event of a significant increase in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, the dollar may adjust downward, as it becomes clear that the Omicron strain has begun to put pressure on the American labor market.
Support and resistance

The key level for the "bulls" remains 0.7263 (Murray [3/8], Fibo retracement 50.0%), the breakout of which will give the prospect of further growth to 0.7325 (Murray [4/8], Fibo retracement 61.8%) and 0.7385 (Murray [5/8]). If the price is fixed below 0.7200 (Murray [2/8], Fibo retracement 38.2%), the decline will be able to resume in the area of 0.7140 (Murray [1/8]) and 0.7080 (Murray [0/8]). The indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, but the Stochastic leaves the overbought zone, forming a sell signal.

Resistance levels: 0.7263, 0.7325, 0.7385
Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7140, 0.7080

EUR/USD

market uncertainty persists

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The EUR/USD pair has been trading in the sideways range of 1.1350-1.1230 (Murray [2/8]-[0/8]) since the end of last month.

Investors remain less active on the eve of the New Year and monitor the dynamics of the incidence of coronavirus infection caused by the Omicron strain. At the moment, the authorities of the USA and European countries are trying to minimize restrictive measures, trying to prevent their impact on the national economy and not cause a new negative reaction among the population. Nevertheless, the update of daily anti-records against the background of an increase in the number of infected COVID-19 around the world makes experts sound the alarm. So, in the USA, the daily incidence has reached its highest during the entire pandemic, which levels the weakness of Omicron and increases the shortage of personnel at enterprises, limiting business activity.

Under these conditions, it is quite possible to expect that local authorities will go to tighten quarantine after the New Year holidays, since it is sanitary measures that will help significantly contain the spread of the virus. Today, data on initial applications for unemployment benefits will be published in the USA, which will illustrate the impact of the pandemic on the labor market. In case of an increase in the indicator, the US currency may be under pressure.

As for the euro, its position is also unstable, since the situation with morbidity in the eurozone countries is similar to the American one. The indicators are growing, which may cause the introduction of new quarantine measures. It should also be noted that recently there is an opinion among officials of the European Central Bank (ECB) that inflation in the eurozone may be higher than the regulator's forecasts. The negative dynamics should serve as a driver for an additional reduction in economic incentives, but concrete decisions in this direction from the ECB in the near future probably will not follow.

Support and resistance
In the near future, the price of EUR/USD is highly likely to remain in the range of 1.1350-1.1230. If the level of 1.1290 breaks down (Murray [1/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), the decline of the trading instrument will continue to 1.1230, after which the growth may resume to the upper limit of the 1.1350 channel. The indicators do not give a single signal: the MACD histogram is decreasing in the negative zone, but the Stochastic has reversed down.

Resistance levels: 1.1350, 1.1413, 1.1475.
Support levels: 1.1291, 1.1230, 1.1170, 1.1100.

CAC 40

French bond market continues to rise

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The CAC 40 is correcting around 7158.0.

The stock market continues to rise despite the dire situation with the spread of the coronavirus caused by the new Omicron strain. Over the past day, an absolute record of 208K new cases was set in France, most of which are due to a new mutation. Despite this, the country's authorities decided not to take serious quarantine measures, but limited themselves to closing nightclubs and banning events of more than 2K people.

The main support for the CAC 40 quotes is provided by the bond market, which is also showing positive dynamics. At the end of last week, 10-year bonds moved into the zone of positive yields, and at the moment it is already 0.194%. The yield on conservative 20-year securities almost reached a year high at 0.593%.
The growth leaders in the index are Teleperformance SE (+1.65%), Bouygues SA (+0.84%), Legrand SA (+0.83%), Compagnie de Saint Gobain SA (+0.61%).
Among the leaders of the decline are Alstom SA (-1.60%), Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE (-1.41%), Airbus Group SE (-1.40%), Worldline SA (-1.40%).
Support and resistance

Quotes of the index continue to be within the global ascending channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a steady buy signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator expands in the direction of growth, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming ascending bars, being above the transition level.

Support levels 7073, 6700
Resistance levels 7200, 7380

WTI Crude Oil_Wave Analysis

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The price is in a correction; a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C developed. Now, a downward correction has started to develop as the wave 2 of (1), within which the wave a of 2 is formed. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 54.10–44.25. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 77.56.

XAG/USD Wave analysis

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On the daily chart, the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C developed. Now, a downward correction has started to develop as the wave 2 of (1), within which the wave a of 2 is formed. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 54.10–44.25. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 77.56.

JNJ | No Unidirectional Trend is Observed

Trade Johnson & Johnson

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Current trend
The stocks of Johnson & Johnson are trading at a 1.5% discount to a 3-month high of December 16. Since the beginning of December, quotes have added more than 9.5% in value, and over the past week, the instrument has grown by 1.68%, while the S&P 500 index has strengthened by 0.85%.

The company has released preliminary data from the third phase of the Sisonke 2 study evaluating a booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine among healthcare workers in South Africa who received the company's primary coronavirus vaccine regimen. The study found that the drug's efficacy in preventing hospitalization increased from 63% shortly after booster vaccination to 84% after 14 days. Johnson & Johnson also noted that the frequency of the Omicron strain in South Africa increased from 82% to 98%.

Support and resistance
The last sessions of trading in the asset are quite active. At the same time, there is no unidirectional trend observed. Currently, the following local support and resistance levels are 168.50 and 173.50, respectively. There is potential for recovery. The indicators point to the strength of buyers: the price consolidated above MA (50) and MA (200), the MACD histogram is in the positive zone. It is better to open the positions from the key levels.

Comparative analysis of multiples of the company and competitors in the industry indicates the neutrality of the asset.

Support levels: 168.50, 166.00, 162.00
Resistance levels: 173.50, 175.30, 179.0

EURUSD

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Current trend
Since the end of November last year, this trading instrument has been moving within the sideways range of 1.1350–1.1230. Last week, the quotes made an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above its upper border.

The December Manufacturing PMI exerted pressure on the positions of the European currency. The indicator for the EU countries decreased from 58.4 to 58.0 points, and for Germany, it was at the previous level of 57.4 points, instead of the growth expected by analysts to 57.9 points. In general, Manufacturing PMI remains significant, but the introduction of additional restrictive measures may pose a serious threat to further positive dynamics if the European authorities decide to take them.

The positions of the US dollar also do not look stable. The increase in the incidence of coronavirus infection in the United States did not cause an increase in quarantine but seriously impedes business conduct due to an acute shortage of personnel. Yesterday, the White House medical adviser Anthony Fauci once again warned citizens against a frivolous attitude towards the Omicron virus since its weakness is compensated by the scale of infections, leading to a surge in hospitalizations. Today in the US, December Markit Manufacturing PMI will be released. The indicator may decline from 58.3 to 57.8 points, putting pressure on the US currency.

Support and resistance
If the price consolidates below 1.1350, the instrument will return to the sideways channel and continue to decline to the area of 1.1290 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.1230 (Murrey [0/8]). Otherwise, the growth of quotations will continue to the levels of 1.1475 (Murrey [4/8]) and 1.1535 (Murrey [5/8]). The indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands and Stochastic are horizontal, the MACD histogram narrows in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 1.1350, 1.1475, 1.1535
Support levels: 1.1290, 1.1230

NZD/USD

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Current trend
The NZD/USD pair has been trying to correct upwards against the medium-term downtrend for the third week.

Currently, the price is testing the key “bullish” level of 0.6835 (Murrey [0/8], Fibonacci retracement 23.6%). The consolidation above it allows further upward dynamics to the levels of 0.6900 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%), 0.6958 (Murrey [1/8], Fibonacci correction 50.0%) and 0.7015 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%).

If the level of 0.6790 (the middle line of Bollinger bands) is broken down, the trading instrument may continue to decline to the levels of 0.6713 (the area of December lows) and 0.6591 (Murrey [–2/8]).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal, illustrating the uncertainty of the market: Bollinger bands and Stochastic are horizontal, the MACD histogram is decreasing in the positive zone. Under these conditions, the price may continue to move within the range of 0.6835–0.6713 with attempts to break through its upper border.

Support and resistance

1. Resistance levels: 0.6835, 0.6900, 0.6958, 0.7015
2. Support levels: 0.6790, 0.6713, 0.6591

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Current trend
The FTSE 100, the leading index on the London Stock Exchange, grows and currently has reached 7480.0 points, following the positive dynamics shown in 2021, when the instrument increased by 14%, showing the most significant rise in the last five years. Now, it continues its local upward trend, trading at 7467.

Despite the current rise in prices, the domestic stock market's information background remains rather poor. The number of new cases of coronavirus infection in the United Kingdom is steadily increasing and may soon reach 200K cases per day, which is more than 50% higher than the average daily rates of mid-December last year.

Nevertheless, despite such dynamic growth, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the authorities did not introduce stricter quarantine restrictions due to the Omicron coronavirus strain. The official stressed that the UK is in a better position than most other European countries due to the very high vaccination rate of the population.

Meanwhile, the quotes of the leading British bonds have remained practically unchanged for the fifth session in a row: the yield on 10-year securities is 0.9720%, and global 20-year bonds are at the level of 1.2000%, which was reached on December 29.

The growth leaders in the index are Melrose Industries Plc. (+2.34%), Fresnillo Plc. (+1.71%), and Rentokil Initial Plc. (+1.35%).
Among the leaders of the decline are Kingfisher Plc. (–3.15%), National Grid Plc. (–1.78%), and Bunzl Plc. (–1.77%).

Support and resistance
The asset moves within the global ascending channel and prepares to form a local reversal, having reached the resistance line. Technical indicators are in the state of a buy signal: t indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range is still wide enough, and the histogram of the AO oscillator remains above the transition level.

Support levels: 7386, 7196
Resistance levels: 7520, 7700

Gold

Under Pressure from the US Dollar

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Current trend
In the first days of the new year, gold quotes are highly dependent on USD dynamics, and at yesterday's trading session, they again dropped to $1800 per ounce, near which they spent the entire second half of last year. Currently, the XAU/USD pair is correcting within a downtrend around 1805.0.

Now, when the bulk of investor capital is out of the market, metal quotes can react sharply to any changes in the information background. So, today's data on Chinese Manufacturing PMI, which rose to 50.9 points from 49.9 points a month earlier, allowed the trading instrument to start the session with growth.

At the beginning of last year, after the publication of corresponding statistics, the precious metal quotes actively changed the dynamics of movement, but by the end of the year, this dependence had weakened. When the market liquidity is low, the asset reacts to almost any changes in the macroeconomic background.

As for the number of positions in gold, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), they slightly increased to 205.8K from 202.2K a week earlier. As for the distribution of the "bulls" and the "bears" by positions, a significant advantage in favor of buyers remains. Over the past week, the number of their positions increased by 2.044K, reaching 174.261K, while for sellers, this indicator increased by 4.883K to 45.189K.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the price moves within the global sideways channel reversed at the upper border. Technical indicators give a weakening buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range narrows, and the AO oscillator histogram forms upward bars near the transition level.

Support levels: 1786 and 1725
Resistance levels: 1830 and 1870

Bitcoin could hit $100,000, says Goldman Sachs

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Analysts at the Wall Street bank estimate that Bitcoin’s market capitalization is just under $700bn – or a fifth of the so-called “store of value” market made up of Bitcoin and gold. If the cryptocurrency’s share of this market were to rise to 50pc over the next five years as part of a wider adoption of digital assets, its price would rise to just over $100,000, Goldman said.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $46,000 after climbing 60pc last year to hit a new record high of $69,000.

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Crude Oil

Oil prices continue upward trend

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Quotes of WTI Crude Oil are developing a "bullish" momentum. During the week, the price rose to the level of 78.12 (Murray [5/8]), which it is now actively testing.
The data published earlier of the weekly report of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) turned out to be negative: crude oil reserves decreased by 2.144M barrels instead of the 3.283M barrels predicted by analysts, while the volume of gasoline reserves increased sharply by 10.128M barrels, which is the highest since April 2020 and indicates the refusal of the population to travel during the Christmas holidays. Nevertheless, these statistics have put only short-term pressure on oil quotes and today they have continued to grow.

In general, investors remain confident in the high demand for "black gold" from global consumers, since most of them are in no hurry to impose strict economic restrictions, despite the development of the coronavirus pandemic caused by the spread of the Omicron strain. The position of OPEC+ adds confidence to the bidders, which continued the policy of gradually increasing the monthly production level by 400K barrels per day.

Support and resistance
A breakout of the level of 78.12 will give the prospect of further price growth to 81.25 (Murray [6/8]) and 84.38 (Murray [7/8]). A reverse breakdown of 75.00 (Murray [4/8]) and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands will become a catalyst for a decline up to the level of 68.75 (Murray [2/8]). However, this option of the movement of the trading instrument seems less likely, since the indicators signal the continuation of upward dynamics: the Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are directed upwards, the MACD histogram increases in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 78.12, 81.25, 84.38.
Support levels: 75.00, 73.70, 68.75.

NZD/USD

Technical Forecast

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NZD USD is trading just above a fresh low for the month after prices fell sharply overnight. Prices continue to trade within the December range, with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement providing a level of support.

A break below that would expose the December low at 0.670. If that level breaks, prices may resume the downward trend seen back in November. Alternatively, a rebound will have bulls looking to overtake the falling 26-day Exponential Moving Average.