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The Swamp

  • #94,061
  • Dec 31, 2021 12:11pm Dec 31, 2021 12:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Day ma's wer finally showing up.. 50ema at 1386.I have a smaller R at 1388.. . But at some point you have to call it a day. I had a pending at 1375.. stop hit at 1380.
Agreed. It always happens. I always know sooner or later a batch of shorts will be a loss.
Thanks for all your insights this year, it's greatly appreciated.
A fool and his money are easily parted
  • #94,062
  • Dec 31, 2021 12:14pm Dec 31, 2021 12:14pm
Quoting MozzChops
{quote} Agreed. It always happens. I always know sooner or later a batch of shorts will be a loss. Thanks for all your insights this year, it's greatly appreciated.
Well if it runs back below 1323 to close.. bulls and bears will be kicking themselves in the ass.. Since it looks like a b/o atm. And not a headfake. I have to go with that. If it is a headfake 1439/47 is a better price. But if one sits back and looks at this. Atm its barley 100 bounce. To me, that's not bulls taking advantage of this gift. Sure they did break 6 weeks of sideways movement. But this could end up a bigger flag or a pennant.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,063
  • Dec 31, 2021 12:25pm Dec 31, 2021 12:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I saw this possible channel may line up with 1389/88 but since it was not a line up with 1447 or 1439 I didnt post it. {image}
lines up with 1439/43
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,064
  • Dec 31, 2021 12:32pm Dec 31, 2021 12:32pm
I guess r/r wise I could have taken a short off the 50ems day. It worked with a small stop 2 out out of the last 3 test.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,065
  • Dec 31, 2021 2:15pm Dec 31, 2021 2:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
I guess r/r wise I could have taken a short off the 50ema day. It worked with a small stop 2 out out of the last 3 test. {image}
still grinding on 1386 50 ema.. I thought about doing it with a tight stop.. But the before rollover spread would get me. If not, the open spread will get me.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,066
  • Dec 31, 2021 2:23pm Dec 31, 2021 2:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} still grinding on 1386 50 ema.. I thought about doing it with a tight stop.. But the before rollover spread would get me. If not, the open spread will get me. {image}
Not so bad now. My spread will be 5 pips at rollover
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,067
  • Dec 31, 2021 4:07pm Dec 31, 2021 4:07pm
Took 1/4 of my shorts off at a loss. Lets see how Sunday opens. Monday is a bank holiday for most.

Happy New Year all.
A fool and his money are easily parted
  • #94,068
  • Dec 31, 2021 4:18pm Dec 31, 2021 4:18pm
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  • #94,069
  • Jan 2, 2022 1:46pm Jan 2, 2022 1:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} still grinding on 1386 50 ema.. I thought about doing it with a tight stop.. But the before rollover spread would get me. If not, the open spread will get me. {image}
Should I go with the daily trend bullish break, or year close below (bear side) 1447? I have to go with the year close below 1447 being bearish. PA closed below 1447, but was unable to close below 1208.

Long story short pa is between 1447 and 1208. I think either requires a large tf close, on the other side. It may range between. So if pa can not make it next to 1439/47, I bet it will return to 1343/45. 1343 and 1323 still hold that s/r value. The mid # between 1208 and 1447 is 1327. The day trend I used is bullish. But the 50 ema day has held R. Thats a 6h 200 ema R. It may be forced back to 1345. It may test 1343. If it sneaks back below 1323. I dont know if the rise attributed to month/year end flow. I do know 1447 and 1492 are big levels to have closed below. 1208 is a large one too.

Its possible to gap below those day levels.
The 1min dropped just before close.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,070
  • Jan 2, 2022 5:28pm Jan 2, 2022 5:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Should I go with the daily trend bullish break, or year close below (bear side) 1447? I have to go with the year close below 1447 being bearish. PA closed below 1447, but was unable to close below 1208. Long story short pa is between 1447 and 1208. I think either requires a large tf close, on the other side. It may range between. So if pa can not make it next to 1439/47, I bet it will return to 1343/45. 1343 and 1323 still hold that s/r value. The mid # between 1208 and 1447 is 1327. The day trend I used is bullish. But the 50 ema...
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,071
  • Jan 2, 2022 7:43pm Jan 2, 2022 7:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {image}
Your talking about hysteresis in daily cycles how did you come about it?
My Targets for the day with EU is 1.14621 up and 1.13209 - 1.1337 downside..
  • #94,072
  • Jan 2, 2022 8:27pm Jan 2, 2022 8:27pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} Your talking about hysteresis in daily cycles how did you come about it? My Targets for the day with EU is 1.14621 up and 1.13209 - 1.1337 downside..
When our ancestors climbed out of the tress to walk. We kept a mental counter in our thoughts. Out of survival we knew the 1/2 distance of points A-B. We knew this mentally and using depth perception. We knew where the next tree to climb to safety was. We knew the 1/2 way point was the most dangerous. We even could calculate topography to figure time 1/2 way points using time, over distance (the fastest route is not always the shortest) . Its in our DNA. We all have a distance clock whether we know it or not. You have that same clock in you. You may not recognize it. On a long car trip you may stop or just acknowledge the 1/2 point (either time or distance). Hence we go to 1439 if we have energy, or back to 1343/45.

It don't work all the time. At some point one can see if pa tires before 1439 with a isolator. At that point you can figure the R/R on going to 1345. pa stopped at 1386. about 54 pips from 1439. Back to 1345 is about 41 pips. So R/R wise I missed the trade. Although the 50 day ema was there. I should have taken the trade using 1386 as R. But the trend seemed strong, plus rollover spread.. So i decided to wait for 1439.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,073
  • Jan 2, 2022 8:45pm Jan 2, 2022 8:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} When our ancestors climbed out of the tress to walk. We kept a mental counter in our thoughts. Out of survival we knew the 1/2 distance of points A-B. We knew this mentally and using depth perception. We knew where the next tree to climb to safety was. We knew the 1/2 way point was the most dangerous. We even could calculate topography to figure time 1/2 way points using time, over distance (the fastest route is not always the shortest) . Its in our DNA. We all have a distance clock whether we know it or not. You have that same clock in...
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,074
  • Jan 2, 2022 8:49pm Jan 2, 2022 8:49pm
it may not ne finished. I still think closing below 1447 is on the bear side. But bulls may not die quietly. Since the were able to flip the day. But it still may be a bullish headfake do to month/year end flow.

1343 is stronger than 1345,, 1323 stronger.. I will post others in a sec.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,075
  • Jan 2, 2022 8:55pm Jan 2, 2022 8:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {image}
My Homo Erectus Genes.. I find it works in ranging markets or after a move has completed it will stall so crosses can move.. When it doesnt work we are in the middle of a nice ride..
  • #94,076
  • Edited 9:30pm Jan 2, 2022 8:55pm | Edited 9:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
it may not ne finished. I still think closing below 1447 is on the bear side. But bulls may not die quietly. Since the were able to flip the day. But it still may be a bullish headfake do to month/year end flow. 1343 is stronger than 1345,, 1323 stronger.. I will post others in a sec.
Adding 1329/30.. more to come if 1343 gives up. Basically close to the old ones.. Just a few pips difference. old 1310. new 1310, old 1307 new 1305. The, old 1284 new 1286.

So if pa gets below 1286/84 with some close. It may be looking to test 1208 again. 1208 probably needs large closes below to drop. A b/o drop usually has a up move first if it has consolidated a while. Friday's move was a up move. It may still be ranging. to the higher part of the range.. PA did close Friday below that R at 1370...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,077
  • Jan 2, 2022 9:02pm Jan 2, 2022 9:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Adding 1329/30.. more to come if 1343 gives up.
Your on to something good.. I am a little to optimistic i think in this case.
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  • #94,078
  • Jan 2, 2022 9:26pm Jan 2, 2022 9:26pm
Hey Guys, Welcome back for another fun year. I like the tree for the forest analogy and the half way points. I also try to use distance. I just prefer to keep it simple for me. I feel like during "normal" conditions a good candlestick body will run about a third of a band. Meaning about 33 pips. We have had a lovely trapped range over the last forty days. I "feel" like we are shifting the range up to oscillate between 1.14 and a bottom around 1.1333. We had a good technical break out of the triangle and now we are retesting the continued up slope of the completed triangle. This runs near the new range bottom of 1.1333. There should be a ton of resistance now in that 40 day band of candles.
Try to document what you see in your charts and using your methods. We are all different but trying for the same goal of freedom of choice in life, after accumulating a measure of wealth. There are lots of news events this week during the US mornings each day to keep the candle direction changing.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nzaGUzH0/
Wick versus candlestick ratio will set you free.
  • #94,079
  • Jan 2, 2022 9:33pm Jan 2, 2022 9:33pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} My Homo Erectus Genes.. I find it works in ranging markets or after a move has completed it will stall so crosses can move.. When it doesnt work we are in the middle of a nice ride..
Its true monkeys, baboons and sloth do it. You live in Florida. Watch the common squirrel do it. They always have an escape plan and hit the nearest tree.
Grassland animals do it. They always have an escape plan. The dumb ones get eating. They dont have a chance to reproduce
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,080
  • Jan 2, 2022 9:41pm Jan 2, 2022 9:41pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} My Homo Erectus Genes.. I find it works in ranging markets or after a move has completed it will stall so crosses can move.. When it doesnt work we are in the middle of a nice ride..
When the local bully wanted to kick your ass. Did you have an escape plan?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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