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The Swamp

  • #94,041
  • Dec 30, 2021 4:12pm Dec 30, 2021 4:12pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} you miss me here? sorry I have not been here last a few months, I will be back...
Be safe. That fire is close.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,042
  • Dec 30, 2021 8:53pm Dec 30, 2021 8:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It may end up near 1370 again with some "month end flow." But if it comes back to close below 1323 friday. its likely to drop. If above 1343 (1344) Friday close. Than I will lean to up to 1447. If my pink trend breaks. Today closing below 1352 and at least 1359 keeps my dynamic trend to down trend.
Maybe not. Anyway its near year's' end. Hopefully most business was taken care of before Christmas. And most of the rest on that runup yesterday. I suspect most are on vacation (holiday for the Europeans). New Years Eve may have most business already done by now. Today closes below 1323 and 1343. So there still is the chance for 1209. It does look remote atm. If business has settled, 1270 would be remote.
I made my view clear. But will adapt if wrong.

I f-u not respecting 1209 more. I had forgot how important it really is. I had that as 2019 close. But its more than that on my inception chart. That is why it has a chance. Its also why it has little chance. Its going to play out with or without me. If the year doesn't close below 1312. Just closing below 1323 makes a run at 1209 more likely. But it may be a stronger support w/o a year close below.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,043
  • Dec 30, 2021 9:05pm Dec 30, 2021 9:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Maybe not. Anyway its near year's' end. Hopefully most business was taken care of before Christmas. And most of the rest on that runup yesterday. I suspect most are on vacation (holiday for the Europeans). New Years Eve may have most business already done by now. Today closes below 1323 and 1343. So there still is the chance for 1209. It does look remote atm. If business has settled, 1270 would be remote. I made my view clear. But will adapt if wrong. I f-u not respecting 1209 more. I had forgot how important it really is. I had that as...
same chart.. I have it posted for years in FF.. but u wont see it in the history unless you know where it is. FF keeps limited history in the search. I have long over used it.
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 2131.7 is the center of the eu since inception. {image}
Not sure if the light blue tl is real.. the fib uses the day the eur/usd all time low. and all time high..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,044
  • Dec 30, 2021 9:15pm Dec 30, 2021 9:15pm
its good to have the all time levels. 0.8225 is the best I got. Some may be close. That blue tl is off a low. But its not off 0.8225. Any tl off 0.8225 would have a higher trajectory.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,045
  • Dec 30, 2021 9:33pm Dec 30, 2021 9:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
its good to have the all time levels. 0.8225 is the best I got. Some may be close. That blue tl is off a low. But its not off 0.8225. Any tl off 0.8225 would have a higher trajectory. {image}
when trading started for the masses 0.90275 was the low. That 0.90275 trendline was close.. 0.8225 may have been perfect.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,046
  • Dec 30, 2021 11:00pm Dec 30, 2021 11:00pm
Eightcap in tradingview is showing calculated eurusd values back to Jan of 1971 (50 years) when Nixon unpegged the dollar from gold. https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/j/JnOAvYKk.png
Wick versus candlestick ratio will set you free.
  • #94,047
  • Dec 31, 2021 1:05am Dec 31, 2021 1:05am
@Boulder are you ok, seems like huge fires in your area.
Take care.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,048
  • Dec 31, 2021 6:59am Dec 31, 2021 6:59am
Quoting 002
Eightcap in tradingview is showing calculated eurusd values back to Jan of 1971 (50 years) when Nixon unpegged the dollar from gold. {image}
How or what broker, symbol in Tradingview. Can I get that on my Tradingview interactive chart? When Nixon did that is when the U.S. oil imported. Reached + 50% of what the U.S. used. For the last 10 years that import % has dropped ( as U.S. production increased). Most oil used in the U.S. comes from North America. The bulk of it domestic. If not for the law change a few years back (congress signed 2015, in affect 2016). U.S. consumers would see less than 1$ gasoline today.

A few years back the law was changed to allow domestic producers to export oil. Now the U.S. exports a little more than it imports in finished products. The U.S. is an net exporter in oil. Unlike the eu run up to the highs summer 2008 (also oil highs). As U.S. production rose. The Eur has fallen. Somewhere about 2009. That +50% in oil production in the U.S. was reached around 2009.
Energy is the most expensive cost in any heavy industrial manufacturing. It far outsides labor and other commodity cost. Oil cost is in most products in some form or another. If not its in the transportation. So it stands to reason. Anything produced in Europe has that added oil tax. Sure the same applies in the U.S. But in the U.S. oil is readily available at a cheaper price. Its got to be put on a ship to get to Europe mostly. That tax dont change.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/...g-from-the-usa
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,049
  • Dec 31, 2021 7:47am Dec 31, 2021 7:47am
Quoting 002
Eightcap in tradingview is showing calculated eurusd values back to Jan of 1971 (50 years) when Nixon unpegged the dollar from gold. {image}
No luck finding a chart to interact on trader view that for back yet. Using oct 2000 to jan 2017 i found one a little under 1.1 (1.1/1.0960 area)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,050
  • Dec 31, 2021 8:01am Dec 31, 2021 8:01am
testing day R again.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,051
  • Dec 31, 2021 8:05am Dec 31, 2021 8:05am
This could be a wild day.. It may have large ups, and downs. 8hs till close.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,052
  • Dec 31, 2021 8:06am Dec 31, 2021 8:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} How or what broker, symbol in Tradingview. Can I get that on my Tradingview interactive chart?

You need to enter EURUSD in the symbol field and pick Eightcap data feed

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After that you'll get their data feed

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  • #94,053
  • Dec 31, 2021 8:28am Dec 31, 2021 8:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} same chart.. I have it posted for years in FF.. but u wont see it in the history unless you know where it is. FF keeps limited history in the search. I have long over used it. {quote} Not sure if the light blue tl is real.. the fib uses the day the eur/usd all time low. and all time high.. {image}
this ones low is a little (100 pip difference) different .0931.. In this one the retracement fib at 1213. A 5 pip difference in the retracement level.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,054
  • Dec 31, 2021 8:35am Dec 31, 2021 8:35am
Quoting Maks
{quote} You need to enter EURUSD in the symbol field and pick Eightcap data feed {image} After that you'll get their data feed {image}
Thanks. That helps explain 1.00 EU being elusive (1.0 is below 50%). With the oil tax Europeans pay. This should fall. Anything done in Europe cost more. The U.S. may not want to pay the higher war cost %. For Europe's dependence on oil. Since the U.S. now sells oil to Europe. The U.S. is making money when OPEC farts. Not the U.S. consumers. The U.S. consumers pays more when that law changed. Big oil makes more selling when OPEC farts.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,055
  • Dec 31, 2021 10:26am Dec 31, 2021 10:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Thanks. That helps explain 1.00 EU being elusive (1.0 is below 50%). With the oil tax Europeans pay. This should fall. Anything done in Europe cost more. The U.S. may not want to pay the higher war cost %. For Europe's dependence on oil. Since the U.S. now sells oil to Europe. The U.S. is making money when OPEC farts. Not the U.S. consumers. The U.S. consumers pays more when that law changed. Big oil makes more selling when OPEC farts. {image}
ATM the EU is down 29% from the highs. Its been a decade since The U.S. oil production has tilted that scale. The last time the scale was balanced was 1971 ish. About the same time that chart started. When the U.S. gold standard changed. That level was/is 0.5373. Things could change. EV cars etc. And even so plastics made from oil will be around a long time. The world will get together and make all plastics recyclable. So just like scrap metal yards. There will be plastic recyclers making money. Even so oil will still be used to make the plastics for the new EV. Oil is in most products one way or another. Even if its the packaging for a bag of chips. Europ will pay more for it. Even with recycling.

So I think the EU will continue to fall closer to 1971 levels. I think once 1.0 level is removed. It may do it a little quicker. When I say quicker. Just remember its been 11-12 yrs since The U.S. *balance the 50%. Its dropped 29% atm. It took 34 years to get to 1.6. About a 300% rise. The retrace from the high is about 34%. But the retrace from the low at 1.07 is 1/2 the 300%. Or 150% from the 1972 oil/gold *balance low. It took 34 years to the high. But just 1.5 yrs to fall 1/2 that distance. CB saved the EU collapse back then. They dont mind the fall at a slower speed. Each time it falls verse the USD. Oil gets more expensive. But BMW's get cheaper in the U.S. And cheaper for BMW to make them here.

We are is closer to 1972 levels. I think it will get close, if and when. I think below 1.0.. Maybe 0.8

So where next? 1.3157 or 1.1 ? 1.0? 0.8? Its going to one of these next.

In this world beauty contest. The U.S. isn't as bad as some think.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,056
  • Dec 31, 2021 10:35am Dec 31, 2021 10:35am
Quoting gatorinla
testing day R again. {image} {image}
pa sits above all my day close levels.. That tl atm has stopped it.. Where she closes now matters..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,057
  • Dec 31, 2021 10:42am Dec 31, 2021 10:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} pa sits above all my day close levels.. That tl atm has stopped it.. Where she closes now matters.. {image}
Also got an ABCD on the 4 hour. Close above 1.1380 and I've had enough of my short drawdown and its time to exit.
A fool and his money are easily parted
  • #94,058
  • Edited 12:00pm Dec 31, 2021 11:48am | Edited 12:00pm
possible sweet spot (close some longs, enter some shorts if your analysis says so) 1439/47. It has broken out the recent range. As long as it dont close today or open Sunday below 1323. If the sweet spot holds. pa may be back at 1316/12. I know this dont seem likely. The close balancing candles are less reliant. Pa could be testing 1323 again if that sweet spot holds. Bulls want to carry pa above 1460.x to help kill 1323 and above 1498.. Either of these may have bears help resist.. 1447 and 1492 have R value now. 1439 has some r value too. With 1447 to help. Most ma's are below pa now. So most of your trends are bullish.. Just be aware. pa is below 1492 1597ish and 1447. A revisit to 1208/08 is not out the question. It just may not be soon. 1447 can help play a role or not in either direction.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,059
  • Dec 31, 2021 12:03pm Dec 31, 2021 12:03pm
Quoting MozzChops
{quote} Also got an ABCD on the 4 hour. Close above 1.1380 and I've had enough of my short drawdown and its time to exit.
Day ma's wer finally showing up.. 50ema at 1386.I have a smaller R at 1388.. . But at some point you have to call it a day. I had a pending at 1375.. stop hit at 1380.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,060
  • Dec 31, 2021 12:09pm Dec 31, 2021 12:09pm
Quoting MozzChops
{quote} Also got an ABCD on the 4 hour. Close above 1.1380 and I've had enough of my short drawdown and its time to exit.
I saw this possible channel may line up with 1389/88 but since it was not a line up with 1447 or 1439 I didnt post it.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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