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The Swamp

  • #94,021
  • Dec 30, 2021 7:10am Dec 30, 2021 7:10am
Quoting gatorinla
year closing isn't for everyone. The swings can be rough.. Up to 1370 or back to 1323 maybe 1298 91 or those weekly numbers again.
its looking like 1323
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,022
  • Dec 30, 2021 7:14am Dec 30, 2021 7:14am
Bears didnt defend the 1323.. They did put some effort defending 1343..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,023
  • Dec 30, 2021 7:18am Dec 30, 2021 7:18am

  1. Bank of Italy Governor Visco said that he expects inflation in the eurozone to average 3.0% in 2022 and slip below the ECB's 2.0% target in 2023/24.
  2. Austrian National Bank Governor Holzmann said he expects inflation to peak around the turn of the year and slowly ease through 2022, adding that the ECB should take steps to abandon negative rates in 2022.
  3. Spain's CPI increased at its fastest yr/yr pace in 30 years in the December reading.
  4. Markets in Germany, Italy, and Spain will be closed tomorrow while markets in France and the U.K. will close early.

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,024
  • Dec 30, 2021 7:33am Dec 30, 2021 7:33am
Quoting gatorinla
Higher lows at week supports. 1260 1272 1298..I ran out of week supports. month wise 1323 is one. 1343 stronger then 1323. 1370 strong on its own merit . These are either a bullish sign. That is compressing against R. One will win. yesterday 1323 and 1343 was taken. 1370 held. Can 1370/75 hold. First a test of 1343 now from below. After either 1370 or 1223 again {image}
Since I drew the weekly support hits. I will also do the month resistance ones starting with 1370/75 then 1343. Maybe later 1323 or the same week once as R.

There is another under 1447 I'm too lazy to look for atm.. I think 1407. Just like those week upper steps showing higher lows. Those month R's can do the same. They may show lower lows. But they tend to be 4x stronger. Now if you got several steps higher those year ones will pop up. 1447 is probably closer to a year s/r. 1343 is on a much higher level then 1323 (meaning its more significant).
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,025
  • Dec 30, 2021 7:45am Dec 30, 2021 7:45am
Quoting DMA Trader
Bank of Italy Governor Visco said that he expects inflation in the eurozone to average 3.0% in 2022 and slip below the ECB's 2.0% target in 2023/24. Austrian National Bank Governor Holzmann said he expects inflation to peak around the turn of the year and slowly ease through 2022, adding that the ECB should take steps to abandon negative rates in 2022. Spain's CPI increased at its fastest yr/yr pace in 30 years in the December reading. Markets in Germany, Italy, and Spain will be closed tomorrow while markets in France and the U.K. will close early....
Weekly jobless claims total 198,000, less than expected and around 52-year low
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,026
  • Dec 30, 2021 8:01am Dec 30, 2021 8:01am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Since I drew the weekly support hits. I will also do the month resistance ones starting with 1370/75 then 1343. Maybe later 1323 or the same week once as R. There is another under 1447 I'm too lazy to look for atm.. I think 1407. Just like those week upper steps showing higher lows. Those month R's can do the same. They may show lower lows. But they tend to be 4x stronger. Now if you got several steps higher those year ones will pop up. 1447 is probably closer to a year s/r. 1343 is on a much higher level then 1323 (meaning its more significant)....
How can this help? Well just the last 3 significant levels (over months strength) 1594, 1492 1447 pa has closed a month candle below.
To me last month closed below 1343 (1344 using Oanda) But not below 1323 (1324 on Oanda). If one recalls. Before November closed the Omnicrom virus news came out. The eu rose to close between 1323 and 1343. I even commented on it then. I thought it may affect the drop. Why does anyone care? For me personally 1323 is the upper level with the next rung in this sequence at 1175. 1175 will be the new 1343 or 1323 s. 1152 and 1123 will be in those. Plus some local numbers I will post later. Now closing below 1323 on the month should do this. Later 1343 and 1323 would be R in my sequence.

The last time pa reached 1343 it was pushed lower. Now that push is below 1323. To me closing this week below 1323 is still bearish for the 1175 LL test. That run can start anytime. But having the close below 1323 cant happen till 2021 ends trading.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,027
  • Dec 30, 2021 8:16am Dec 30, 2021 8:16am
I'm taking this opportunity to close half my shorts from higher and will reload.
Enough of this jiggery pokery

Watch it drop like a stone now!
A fool and his money are easily parted
  • #94,028
  • Dec 30, 2021 8:20am Dec 30, 2021 8:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} How can this help? Well just the last 3 significant levels (over months strength) 1594, 1492 1447 pa has closed a month candle below. To me last month closed below 1343 (1344 using Oanda) But not below 1323 (1324 on Oanda). If one recalls. Before November closed the Omnicrom virus news came out. The eu rose to close between 1323 and 1343. I even commented on it then. I thought it may affect the drop. Why does anyone care? For me personally 1323 is the upper level with the next rung in this sequence at 1175. 1175 will be the new 1343 or 1323...
here..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,029
  • Dec 30, 2021 8:27am Dec 30, 2021 8:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1447 is probably closer to a year s/r. 1343 is on a much higher level then 1323 (meaning its more significant). {image}
Let me change this. It wont go down w/o 1323. So in the scheme of things (trending lower). 1323 is important. Both are, and both may end up as R. Its just at this moment on a shorter tf 1343 has more importance for up moves. In down moves 1323 has more importance. I dont want pa caught between them on the year close. That opens up more range. I guess we eat what's served. I have no control.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,030
  • Dec 30, 2021 8:28am Dec 30, 2021 8:28am
Here is what Justin Low over at Forexlive published a few days ago. https://www.forexlive.com/Orders/fx-...-cut-20211227/
Today shows a puddle around 1.1310 by 10 AM and tomorrow tends to want to go higher. I dont think we will get to the 1.14 or 1.15, but someone with deeper pockets than me was betting on it. We will see how the year ends? Good luck and know that this information is several days old and may not include newer options placed.
Wick versus candlestick ratio will set you free.
  • #94,031
  • Dec 30, 2021 8:51am Dec 30, 2021 8:51am
Quoting 002
Here is what Justin Low over at Forexlive published a few days ago. https://www.forexlive.com/Orders/fx-...-cut-20211227/ Today shows a puddle around 1.1310 by 10 AM and tomorrow tends to want to go higher. I dont think we will get to the 1.14 or 1.15, but someone with deeper pockets than me was betting on it. We will see how the year ends? Good luck and know that this information is several days old and may not include newer options placed.
It may end up near 1370 again with some "month end flow." But if it comes back to close below 1323 friday. its likely to drop. If above 1343 (1344) Friday close. Than I will lean to up to 1447. If my pink trend breaks. Today closing below 1352 and at least 1359 keeps my dynamic trend to down trend.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,032
  • Dec 30, 2021 9:00am Dec 30, 2021 9:00am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Weekly jobless claims total 198,000, less than expected and around 52-year low
EUR/USD gonna be fun next week
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,033
  • Dec 30, 2021 9:00am Dec 30, 2021 9:00am
One would think with profit taking before years end. The market would cool a little. Not make ATH. Next year is looking like the 20ties will be roaring again. Amy similarities here? Pandemic, followed by a roaring market. Followed by the Brown Shirts?.
Will Turkey play a role?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,034
  • Dec 30, 2021 9:26am Dec 30, 2021 9:26am
Wishing all SWAMP Players a Happy NEW Year. #Parity for 2022
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #94,035
  • Dec 30, 2021 10:15am Dec 30, 2021 10:15am
Quoting DMA Trader
Wishing all SWAMP Players a Happy NEW Year. #Parity for 2022
Parity>\? Within 12 months.. I see support 1175 and 1209 that needs to be closed below. I was hoping 2021 would close below 1209.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,036
  • Dec 30, 2021 10:27am Dec 30, 2021 10:27am
Quoting DMA Trader
Wishing all SWAMP Players a Happy NEW Year. #Parity for 2022
Pa needs a month close below 1209 1175 1182 and 1123.8
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,037
  • Dec 30, 2021 10:34am Dec 30, 2021 10:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Parity>\? Within 12 months.. I see support 1175 and 1209 that needs to be closed below. I was hoping 2021 would close below 1209.
Call me silly. There is still a chance to close this week below 1209.. It may end up as R. with some range 1175/1209 ish..As it stands, This area is support. A large close below should change that.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #94,038
  • Dec 30, 2021 12:54pm Dec 30, 2021 12:54pm
Hopefully we will get a nice reversal heading north and keep letting the triangle play out. https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/bgyPNpxZ.png
Wick versus candlestick ratio will set you free.
  • #94,039
  • Dec 30, 2021 2:12pm Dec 30, 2021 2:12pm
Rambling thoughts. Read at your own risk.
So the Japan bank holiday starts tonight.....meaning no real players or volume. Then Germany takes the holiday starting around 3 AM east coast....meaning low volume again. The Brits get it all to themselves for a few hours and then the American banks get to rob the market and leave the pairs where they can make the most money.

So where do the whales want the rates to end tomorrow at 5 PM East coast? Where would the US Federal Reserve want the rates to end? They talk about tightening and three rate increases next year to fight inflation.....but high dollars hurt the exporting game for America and lower the GDP. They need the GDP to go up to prop up the Biden lame duck. I am assuming (not trading advice) they want the EUR/USD it go as high as possible. Happy new years!

So seize the day and start creating the new bad habits you will harvest next year!
Wick versus candlestick ratio will set you free.
  • #94,040
  • Dec 30, 2021 2:54pm Dec 30, 2021 2:54pm
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