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Daily chart trading - simple entry and exit criteria

  • #41
  • Dec 28, 2021 10:57am Dec 28, 2021 10:57am
better to not to get into trades during holiday period. goal is 15% up in a year by risking no more than 1% per trade, so plenty of time ..default mindset is to watch charts only once a day (after eod), no more than 10 min across the pairs. Wait for the right set up as per the rules (try finding any confluence with support/resistance in daily charts)… the chart has to be so convincing to enter, once in the trade, set and forget. God be with you all.
  • #42
  • Dec 28, 2021 3:25pm Dec 28, 2021 3:25pm
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  • #43
  • Dec 29, 2021 2:31pm Dec 29, 2021 2:31pm
Quoting Erebus
Given that you are putting major emphasis on the CLOSE price, you might be interested in this simple technique of Dr. David Paul Dr. David Paul David Paul has a background in mathematics and mineralogy, which he used to develop a revolutionary drill for the mining world. He started day-trading in the 1980s and has been an active day-trader and share investor for 35 years. Hearing David Paul speak is nothing short of a revelation. His knowledge of patterns is drawn from an intensive and dedicated study of price action and human behavior for over...
Hello.
Could you show an example of a 4-bar fractal transaction?
Thank you in advance.
  • #44
  • Dec 29, 2021 5:39pm Dec 29, 2021 5:39pm
Quoting nordbadger
{quote} Hello. Could you show an example of a 4-bar fractal transaction? Thank you in advance.
The signals are straightforward.

Do you have it on your charts?

Can you be more specific in the question?

Do you mean just an entry or a complete trade?

Any particular timeframe?

Good Luck
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #45
  • Dec 29, 2021 5:45pm Dec 29, 2021 5:45pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} The signals are straightforward. Do you have it on your charts? Can you be more specific in the question? Do you mean just an entry or a complete trade? Any particular timeframe? Good Luck
I would like to see the entry and exit point of the transaction.
Initial stop loss and take profit points, position tracking.
Thank you.
  • #46
  • Dec 29, 2021 6:07pm Dec 29, 2021 6:07pm
Greetings Erebus! (great name)

I notice in your post 27 you did not bother with the two lower time frame MAs as shown on the original AUDUSD chart.

These may or may not be especially useful, but I wondered if you knew Tom's settings for the two MAs? You can work it down and get pretty close by experimentation, but I can't seem to get it quite identical.

All the best to you as we enter 2022.

FS
  • #47
  • Dec 30, 2021 1:26am Dec 30, 2021 1:26am
Quoting Forest-Sea
Greetings Erebus! (great name) I notice in your post 27 you did not bother with the two lower time frame MAs as shown on the original AUDUSD chart. These may or may not be especially useful, but I wondered if you knew Tom's settings for the two MAs? You can work it down and get pretty close by experimentation, but I can't seem to get it quite identical. All the best to you as we enter 2022. FS
Post 27 shows a generic method for problem-solving, a tutorial to help anyone with a problem to get any indicator working

Hence, only a blank chart and only the indicator you are having issues with

Where did you see that Tom uses any MAs?

That was my chart, my MA's, sorry if that misleads you.

Have you downloaded his Technical Analysis Course for FREE?

He gives credit Dr. David Paul all credit for sharing the 4-Bar Fractal method

And no MAs were mentioned.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #48
  • Dec 30, 2021 2:01am Dec 30, 2021 2:01am
Quoting nordbadger
{quote} I would like to see the entry and exit point of the transaction. Initial stop loss and take profit points, position tracking. Thank you.
I encourage you to explore the TraderTom website, it is all FREE

The 4-Bar Fractal is a method of recognizing a turn in the market, using the Close price.

Yes, it can be an entry signal, either long or short.

But there are too many timeframes for me to give you the exact parameters for each and every pair.

Every individual trader must have their own trading plan based on their own observations and experience.

Good Luck

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  • #49
  • Edited 11:51am Dec 30, 2021 3:54am | Edited 11:51am
Quoting Erebus
Given that you are putting major emphasis on the CLOSE price, you might be interested in this simple technique of Dr. David Paul Dr. David Paul David Paul has a background in mathematics and mineralogy, which he used to develop a revolutionary drill for the mining world. He started day-trading in the 1980s and has been an active day-trader and share investor for 35 years. Hearing David Paul speak is nothing short of a revelation. His knowledge of patterns is drawn from an intensive and dedicated study of price action and human behavior for over...

Im loving this thread. I must commend you for this post and originator of this thread. Price action strategy/trading is very interesting if you dedicate your time to mastering the "art".

I remembered posting a 1m clip of David Paul (vector vest) and some trollers stepped in. You cant trade on the 1m/5m tf system and want to adopt the H1/H4 trading system or rather critise it. Trading is vast and different ppl, different/unique style of trading. What matters the most is staying profitable in the end and keep practicing no matter the outcome. No doubt you would see lots of improvements and things could turn around for good.

i hope to make some contributions/suggestions pertaining this strategy (prior 2bar strength, reversal 3rd bar strength, SL/TP based on Candlesticks or ATR, etc) as it is a very good one and a profitable one if you understand it well as it appear on charts at different TFs

Trader Tom is a weird dude!
Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!
  • #50
  • Edited 4:34am Dec 30, 2021 3:59am | Edited 4:34am
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No doubt it is a profitable strategy (very similar to the hammer & Morning/Evening Star), unfortunately it isnt 100% full proof. But the good thing is identifying them first. Be it at a critical support or resistance. But caution must be applied as it could also signal continuation in the direction of the overall market trend i.e. in a failed scenario . In this case (failed scenario) you take advantage of the reversal candle (3rd bar) as it provides you with a clear Entry, SL and TP opportunities/levels in the direction of the actual market trend.
Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!
  • #51
  • Dec 30, 2021 6:13am Dec 30, 2021 6:13am
Quoting pipibrasci
{image} No doubt it is a profitable strategy (very similar to the hammer & Morning/Evening Star), unfortunately it isnt 100% full proof. But the good thing is identifying them first. Be it at a critical support or resistance. But caution must be applied as it could also signal continuation in the direction of the overall market trend i.e. in a failed scenario . In this case (failed scenario) you take advantage of the reversal candle (3rd bar) as it provides you with a clear Entry, SL and TP opportunities/levels in the direction of the actual market...
Hi
Thanks for your contribution but I'd like to know if you ever tested this entry criteria over 5 to 10 years using an EA?
Would be nice to know what's the accuracy of this entry criteria
  • #53
  • Edited 7:36am Dec 30, 2021 7:14am | Edited 7:36am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Hi Thanks for your contribution but I'd like to know if you ever tested this entry criteria over 5 to 10 years using an EA? Would be nice to know what's the accuracy of this entry criteria
Sorry mate not backtested with EA yet as im still trying to learn how to code . You mean the successful reversal setups or failed ones?) I have done quite a good "manual" backtest (5-10yrs history data) on this strategy and it works good. It has helped me to identify the different 3bar scenarios likely to develop while trading in real time. So I happen to develop a custom indicator using a software for possible scenarios and have kept monitoring (the custom indicator) and "manually" trading the system with both ATR /traditional SL until its okay for me to convert to EA.

For entry, arrow/alert should appear immediately after the setup is confirmed (close of the 3rd bar). I usually go for 1:1 - 1:3 with S/R, Trendline, pivot point levels in view.



Sample GBPUSD H4 chart.
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Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!
  • #54
  • Dec 30, 2021 7:33am Dec 30, 2021 7:33am
Quoting pipibrasci
{quote} Sorry mate not backtested with EA yet as im still trying to learn how to code . You mean the successful reversal setups or failed ones?) I have done quite a good "manual" backtest (5-10yrs history data) on this strategy and it works good. It has helped me to identify the different 3bar scenarios likely to develop while trading in real time. So I happen to develop a custom indicator using a software for possible scenarios and have kept monitoring (the custom indicator) and "manually" trading the system with both ATR...
Understood
Thanks
  • #55
  • Dec 30, 2021 7:37am Dec 30, 2021 7:37am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Understood Thanks

Welcome.
Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!
  • #56
  • Dec 30, 2021 10:26am Dec 30, 2021 10:26am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Hi Thanks for your contribution but I'd like to know if you ever tested this entry criteria over 5 to 10 years using an EA? Would be nice to know what's the accuracy of this entry criteria
If you watch the video that is posted on page one, Tom Hougard reveals that he only has at best a 50% win rate. He makes money by adding to winning positions then scaling out. If you just do an EA that trades signal to signal it will lose money. If only it were that simple.
  • #57
  • Dec 30, 2021 10:34am Dec 30, 2021 10:34am
Quoting Toccata
{quote} If you watch the video that is posted on page one, Tom Hougard reveals that he only has at best a 50% win rate. He makes money by adding to winning positions then scaling out. If you just do an EA that trades signal to signal it will lose money. If only it were that simple.
So this entry does not have any particular edge as you are saying it's 50/50 at best.
In the end it will be all down to money management.
Thanks
  • #58
  • Dec 30, 2021 12:29pm Dec 30, 2021 12:29pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Where did you see that Tom uses any MAs? That was my chart, my MA's, sorry if that misleads you. . . . He gives credit Dr. David Paul all credit for sharing the 4-Bar Fractal method And no MAs were mentioned.
E, thank you for the clarification.
  • #59
  • Jan 1, 2022 3:04pm Jan 1, 2022 3:04pm
Quoting nordbadger
{quote} I would like to see the entry and exit point of the transaction. Initial stop loss and take profit points, position tracking. Thank you.
Let us look at the "signals" given by the 4-Bar Fractal method and the 3-Bar Pattern

On the bigger timeframes, I simply suggest using these to determine a trend BIAS

Certainly, they will never be correct all the time, with no guarantees.

Especially when there are huge daily candles as shown at 1, 2, and 3.

If you have the solution for those, please share, we need to know, anyone?

What I get from this comparison is that the 3-Bar will give a signal sooner, but not all the time as it depends on Engulfing Candles.

The 4-Bar is good because it depends on the Close price, and it gives multiple signals when a trend exists.

Use them together, it may improve your intraday trading while a trend is in progress.

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  • #60
  • Jan 1, 2022 3:23pm Jan 1, 2022 3:23pm
If you study the 4-Bar chart above, you probably think that the last signal is the worst ever

This is why you need to know the context of price action

Whether that is an average daily move or an average monthly move

Sure, it could go up forever, but it didn't...

This is where the SAR guys jump in and find a level 15 years ago and say, that's resistance right there, it works



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