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Follow a real trading strategy or is it just time wasting?

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 28, 2021 5:00am Dec 28, 2021 5:00am
Hello fellow traders

Happy Christmas to you all. I hope God bless you and your loved ones.

I like to mention a trading idea I now adays play around with. It is all about trading many trading instruments at the same time in the grid method plus a little martingale. It is simply you find 25-35 trading instrument in your broker with little spred and commission as possible and then trade them together, with a very small lot size so if you had traded the instrument alone it will have giving you thousands of pips before you loos your account, but because you have 30 trading instrument you will get a high posibility of profiting somehow acceptable profits with acceptable drawdown. You keep take profit of the trades that go in your direction and keep the loossing positions open so when the market pull back and you get positive in your equity, you close all and start the cycle again.
And of course you not just keep opening trading position while the market go against you. You just open four or five position for every instrument, so if 5 or 10 instruments go in the dead zone you have the other that will keep add to your account.

So it will sounds as follows in a 10000 account:
gbpusd 0.01 in the first position with a tp 60, and a grid step 60, so the next trade opens after 60 pips also 0.01 because your martingale multiplyer is 1.5. the third level will of course be 0.03 and the fourth is 0.05 and the fifth is 0.08.
Thats it. after 240 pips no longer gbpusd levels. Either the market come back with you or you just stay there collecting drawdown for this pair.
Well all the others is the same. But because we know that not all pairs behave the same in same time I hope that the other will keep adding profits to the account so I can in a week or two be able to close on acceptable profit so the cycle can begin again.

So no stop loss, and no averiging trades. Every trade take the user-defined tp. So for gbp pairs you put a bigger tp with bigger grid steps because we know such pairs have big market movements. And for pairs like eurchf or nzdusd or nzdchf a smaller tp targets and grid steps because we know these have not so big market movements.

So what is your thoughts about such an trading idea? Will I be able to make a trading strategy with it, or will I be kicked out of the market as quickly as I step in? LOL

As you can see I just play with numbers and trading mathemathically without any mention of indicators or technical analysis since all these require eyes and I am blind just using screen readers to operate my pc and phone and mt4. And yes I know as a blind this trading world is not for me, as you know to try without loosing real money is harmless. So I like to know your thoughts so I can find out if I have even a chance or all this time wasting.

Happy new year to you all
  • #2
  • Dec 28, 2021 11:07pm Dec 28, 2021 11:07pm
Quoting aalaarajy
gbpusd 0.01 in the first position with a tp 60, and a grid step 60, so the next trade opens after 60 pips also 0.01 because your martingale multiplyer is 1.5. the third level will of course be 0.03 and the fourth is 0.05 and the fifth is 0.08. Thats it. after 240 pips no longer gbpusd levels.
Why 60?

Quoting aalaarajy
martingale multiplyer is 1.5.
Why 1.5?

Quoting aalaarajy
And for pairs like eurchf or nzdusd or nzdchf a smaller tp targets and grid steps because we know these have not so big market movements.
How smaller?
Observer effect
  • #3
  • Dec 29, 2021 12:43am Dec 29, 2021 12:43am
Well 60 pips because so you can stay more safe and at the same time get acceptable profits out of it. So it was just approximit calculation, and not exact. Not because the strategy will be ruined if you put 80 or 90. To be honest 90 or 100 pips will make the strategy more safe but with less profits. And of course 30 or 40 pips will make the strategy riskier with a high possibility of margin call the account but with very high return.
The same is about martingale. When I say 1.5 is because I do not want the multiplier to be 2.00. This is very high risk. And also I will not go for 1.1 for example because this is very little.
and when I talk about the pairs that do not have so high market movements I am thinking 30 or 40 pips grid levels.
In any case, is such an idea an acceptable strategy you think? Or is it it’s just a waste of the time? Can you imagine a future for it?
  • #4
  • Dec 29, 2021 2:10am Dec 29, 2021 2:10am
good idea. Doing averaging+martingale with gbpusd more than 1 year now. see here results so far. 10 years backtests show yearly 30-60% profits. this year was 35%.

your idea sounds good. 60 pips for gbpusd is good. how much % yearly profits do you expect? will you use global SL for account %? I use 20% SL for gbpusd.

when go in dd because grid levels limit reached then idea is to earn money from other trades and maybe cover loser on BE. usually from backtests i see there is 95% success trades but then come 5% what ruins all. maybe as soon you earn BE with other trades then close loser?
  • #5
  • Dec 29, 2021 4:31am Dec 29, 2021 4:31am
[quote=gepards;13839337

Ok, so does it sounds like a trading strategy in your opinion even when I do not consider any technical analysis or indicators?

Well, but it is without any stop loss. It depends on that the market go in my direction so I can close all positions - loosing and profiting - so the cycle can begin again. So I imagine that because I have 30 trading instrument at the same time, buy and sell and that I take profit all the time, that the diversification will do the job by protecting the account from the margin call and at the same time give me somehow ok return.
For now I am testing forward test with just limit orders despite of I think my strategy will be more strong if I also put stop orders, but the EA I rely on just open trades if the market go against you.
I have 8 different versions of same idea is running right now. Some of them is very agressive with 100% profit expectation every two weeks. But others are so small that 20% every 45 days will be ok. And of course I expect the high risk will be margincalled every moment. Especially when the new year step in. But I hope those with the less return will survive so I can consider this a possible trading senario.
Lol, imagine a blind like me trade in this market. This is crazy since all this market's soul rely in visual management. The trading charts is a good example.
  • #6
  • Edited 5:56am Dec 29, 2021 5:02am | Edited 5:56am
Quoting aalaarajy
Well 60 pips because so you can stay more safe and at the same time get acceptable profits out of it. So it was just approximit calculation, and not exact. Not because the strategy will be ruined if you put 80 or 90. To be honest 90 or 100 pips will make the strategy more safe but with less profits. And of course 30 or 40 pips will make the strategy riskier with a high possibility of margin call the account but with very high return. The same is about martingale. When I say 1.5 is because I do not want the multiplier to be 2.00. This is very high...
I have pointed you because I see that there is a little problem with you strategy. For example you are using 60 pips TP. And you don't know why 60, not 50, not 33 or 77.
Second problem I see is that you said that you are using 0.01 lot size and 1.5 multiplier. Since we have only 2 symbols after dot it is impossible to multiply 0.01 on 1.5 correctly. So what is the purpose of that and how exactly you multiply it?
Third problem you don't know how smaller should be the distance for another pairs.

I can ask you one more question. Do you know how much equity you need if there will be 14 levels on 10 pairs?
Observer effect
  • #7
  • Dec 29, 2021 5:44am Dec 29, 2021 5:44am
Quoting aalaarajy
Some of them is very agressive with 100% profit expectation every two weeks.
this is ok if you cashout profits and definetly will be total account wipeouts too but as long you cachout +N more than wipeout then in longterm will be profitable. for example 3 times in a row cachout 100% then 1 or 2 wipeout, then again some serie with profits and so on. This process can be still profitable. Might happen sometimes 3 or more series of wipeouts.. therefore do not start with all money on account. Split it maybe in 5 to 10 parts so you are comfortable when wipeout and have capital to restart.
  • #8
  • Dec 29, 2021 5:44am Dec 29, 2021 5:44am
[quote=ryuryu;13839470]{

Well, I know the problem with the strategy. I just want to hear your opinion especially when I have 30 trading pairs at the same time. Dont you think that they all together will give the account more surviving chances than to rely on just one pair with high lot sizing?
And I do not want to keep opening trades. Just 6 or 7 levels. And as you know for 0.01 lot sizing will be multiply to the nearest number when we cannot multiply it exactly. You know that many ea - also the one I am working with - will start 0.01 then 0.01 again and then 0.02 maybe, and then 0.03 then 0.05, and so on. The most important that you have to be so close to the 1.5 multiplication as possible. And if you think this is a problem, you could use a 100000 account with a 0.1 lot size. So in real trading you will open a mini account for this purpose.

And for one pair with just 60 grid level and 60 pips profit you need for 6 level 276$ drawdown, or something like that. So if you have all your 10 pairs with same tp and grid steps then you will be in 2760$ drawdown. So if you have 35 pairs at the same time you need all the 10000$. But dont forget the profit you have earned until you got there. Because you have sell and buy all the time.
The calculations is as follows:
the first position after 360 pips is -36$, the second after 300 pips is -30$, the third is after 240 pips is -48, the fourth after 180 is - -54$, the fifth after 120 is -60$, the sixth after 60 pips is -48$.

it was 0.01, 0.01, 0.02, 0.03, 0.05, 0.08

But of course you have to consider other pairs that do not move so much in 40-35 range and you have to make your calculation after that. Also you have to consider gbpaud, gbpnzd, gbpjpy, eurnzd and similar pairs with higher ranges since they move more. Maybe in the 80-100 range.
All in all if you make your calculations correct you can survive for those with high movements many hundreds of pips, and for those with less movements up to 200 pips or maybe more. And remember we are now just talking about the 10000$, and not about what you will have added to this balance while you have collected all this drawdown.
  • #9
  • Dec 29, 2021 5:52am Dec 29, 2021 5:52am
Quoting aalaarajy
Ok, so does it sounds like a trading strategy in your opinion even when I do not consider any technical analysis or indicators?
with right money management not big problem that entry/exit here is without any logic. But... for statistical reasons to use some backtests and find the best pips for grid level for each symbol it is better to use some indicator for entries. Just to get optimizations work better and when you can apply some enhancements to EA then you can run on the same data again. If no indicators then you might not re-run optimizations for the same data. If no indicators then at least use time as entry.. for example, X hours before or after London opening or something like that.
  • #10
  • Dec 29, 2021 5:55am Dec 29, 2021 5:55am
[quote=gepards;13839508]{quote

Grate idea. I have also played with it in my head. But I do not have to necessary courage to jump in with real money. I mean the idea of high risk with high return. I just have the courage to play with it in my head and to burn as much demo account I am able to.
  • #11
  • Edited 6:22am Dec 29, 2021 6:09am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting gepards
{quote} with right money management not big problem that entry/exit here is without any logic. But... for statistical reasons to use some backtests and find the best pips for grid level for each symbol it is better to use some indicator for entries. Just to get optimizations work better and when you can apply some enhancements to EA then you can run on the same data again. If no indicators then you might not re-run optimizations for the same data. If no indicators then at least use time as entry.. for example, X hours before or after London opening...
Yes, it could more useful if I used specific indicators for the entry. Because of that I have searched for an EA that will allow me to open trade because of specific indicator. But it have to allow more trades at same time. So whenever the candle closes and new candle open it have to search for an entry either buy or sell acording to the indicator it is following. But have to give the user posibilitiy to limit the number of trades running at the same time, and also it have to wait a user-defined number of pips before it open another trade.
Imagine with me a simple EA that open trades acording to the rsi indicator. So when the rsi say buy it open a buy, and if it say sell it open a sell. But it have to also allow the opening of other trades. Not just rely on the first one and wait for it to be closed. Because the most EAs I have found just open one trade and wait for it to be closed either sl or tp before it open again. Or it keep opening trades non-stop whenever the a new candle begin. So you end up with tons of trades that might have same entry or very close.
So I posted in this forum in the hope of finding what I am searching for, but so far no luck.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13838514
And I am not so serious with this idea to get a programmer to code it for me.

For now I am using this idea randomly without any indicator or any kind of entry-logic.
  • #12
  • Dec 29, 2021 6:32am Dec 29, 2021 6:32am
Quoting aalaarajy
I just want to hear your opinion especially when I have 30 trading pairs at the same time. Dont you think that they all together will give the account more surviving chances than to rely on just one pair with high lot sizing?
More trades = more chance to lose. If you will have 30 pairs * 6 levels each you will trade 6.2 lot size + spread + fees + losses. It is just not possible.

Quoting aalaarajy
And as you know for 0.01 lot sizing will be multiply to the nearest number when we cannot multiply it exactly. You know that many ea - also the one I am working with - will start 0.01 then 0.01 again and then 0.02 maybe, and then 0.03 then 0.05, and so on. The most important that you have to be so close to the 1.5 multiplication as possible.
0.01 -> 0.02 is not 1.5x
0.03 -> 0.05 is not 1.5x

Quoting aalaarajy
The calculations is as follows: the first position after 360 pips is -36$, the second after 300 pips is -30$, the third is after 240 pips is -48, the fourth after 180 is - -54$, the fifth after 120 is -60$, the sixth after 60 pips is -48$.
Your calculations are wrong. First position loss will be 36 + spread + fees.
Observer effect
  • #13
  • Dec 29, 2021 7:17am Dec 29, 2021 7:17am
[quote=ryuryu;13839553]{quote

Ok, thanks for your input. So you mean this is a disaster and not a trading strategy? Well, thats why I am sking for your opinion. I want to listen to so many traders as possible to get the different aspects.

And for why I am calculating without the spred and comision in mind is because I want to reach an aproximit calculation, not exact. Just so I want to have an idea about the most worse senario.
  • #14
  • Dec 29, 2021 8:14am Dec 29, 2021 8:14am
[quote=ryuryu;13839553]{quote

Let me just update this idea with telling you I have got one of my high risk account margincalled last week. And now at this moment two of my medium risk accounts is in 88% drawdown. So they are about to say bye.
But these accounts are running versions of this idea very agressive. 0.1 for instense for 10000$ with 28 pairs.

another one is 0.02 but the levels is 30-40 pips grid levels. So they are really agressive even the medium risk. Or what I thought was medium.

So this idea have to be in very small lot size. 0.01 as I suggested in my first post, and also the grid steps have to be 60-90 pips. Maybe it will survive. Else this might be just a disaster and not a trading strategy.

Still like to know other perspective from you.
  • #15
  • Dec 29, 2021 8:22am Dec 29, 2021 8:22am
Reducing the risk you take should help you in managing your account and saving it from blowing up. Also, remember to take actions you think will be profitable in LONG TERM.

P.S. - I'm not profitable.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #16
  • Dec 29, 2021 8:41am Dec 29, 2021 8:41am
Quoting aalaarajy
Quoting ryuryu
{quote Let me just update this idea with telling you I have got one of my high risk account margincalled last week. And now at this moment two of my medium risk accounts is in 88% drawdown. So they are about to say bye. But these accounts are running versions of this idea very agressive. 0.1 for instense for 10000$ with 28 pairs. another one is 0.02 but the levels is 30-40 pips grid levels. So they are really agressive even the medium risk. Or what I thought was medium. So this idea have to be in very small lot size. 0.01
...
I think the problem that you are using words "maybe" and "might". There are no such a words in mathematics. You must be absolutely sure in your strategy.
First you need to have clear answers why you want to trade 28 pairs, why initial lot size is 0.01, why grid size will be 30-40 pips?
For example I know that grid distance for EU today is 283, for GU it is 391, for USDJPY it is 229, for XAU it is 840 and for BTC it is 119745. EU spread is 0, GU is 3, XAU is 14 and BTC is about 2600.

BTW, there are no question about margin for each trade. It is also different for every pair. Especially for EURO pairs and pairs like Gold and Silver. Fees, slippage, spread and margin requirements are very important. In fact I use wrong word. They are not "important", they are obligatory for calculations.
Observer effect
  • #17
  • Dec 30, 2021 1:31am Dec 30, 2021 1:31am
[quote=ryuryu;13839765]{quote

Exactly. I have a lot of the "maybe" and "could be" and so on. Because I do not have access to the technical analysis I do a lot of tests that only depend on the prices that go up and down all the time. And especially for this idea. Because I have 30 pairs at the same time I "hope" that "maybe" it will give the account more chances to survive.
So far not good results. Only if I will try to make the grid levels very big and far from each other to find out if I will be able to make an acceptable return on monthly basis while the account have less drawdown as possible, or not.
  • #18
  • Dec 30, 2021 1:41am Dec 30, 2021 1:41am
Also I have a big problem since I cannot backtest this idea properly because it depend on 30 pair or more. You know that in mt4 only one pair at a time is possible to backtest. Also I do not have the EA that perform several pairs at the same time. As it is right now for me I put the EA on 30 charts when I will trade this idea. So if any one have an EA that have the multi currency possibility and that can trade in the grid mode without averiging the trades, and also have access to mt5, and have the time to do the backtest, I hope for your help. Wow those was many demands.
  • #19
  • Dec 30, 2021 1:44am Dec 30, 2021 1:44am
Quoting aalaarajy
Also I have a big problem since I cannot backtest this idea properly because it depend on 30 pair or more. You know that in mt4 only one pair at a time is possible to backtest. Also I do not have the EA that perform several pairs at the same time. As it is right now for me I put the EA on 30 charts when I will trade this idea. So if any one have an EA that have the multi currency possibility and that can trade in the grid mode without averiging the trades, and also have access to mt5, and have the time to do the backtest, I hope for your help. Wow...
I have tested it with mt5 many times. It is not working. It doesn't matter 1.5x or 2x or any. The distance doesn't matter too. The problem here is because the loss increases exponentially on every step because of slippage, fees, spread and swaps.
Observer effect
  • #20
  • Dec 30, 2021 2:05am Dec 30, 2021 2:05am
[quote=ryuryu;13840375]{quote

Nice. Thanks for your eferts and willingness to follow up this post.

Well, what about another idea I have in mind. What do you think about it.

It is a normal martingale idea but in both direction. So you go in the market buy and sell. Here you wait with the take profit until specific market movement. So let say until the GBP have moved 300 pips for example.. But your stop orders have to be less in the lot size from your limit orders in the hope of the market change direction and go in with you so you can close all and begin again. but if it didn't then you take your stoporders profit when you reach the 300 pips movement and then deal with your limit orders as usual.

So it will be buy and sell 0.1. Let say the market go in the buy direction. So after 60 pips again a buy 0.1, but sell 0.2. Let say it still go in the buy. After 60 pips a buy 0.15 but a sell 0.3. After 60 again a buy 0.25 but a sell 0.5. After 60 pips again a buy 0.3 and a sell 0.5.
Then I take the buy profits and deal with the sell as usual. Either add more to it or if the drawdown is high I just wait either life or death.

Do not ask me about the calculations since I have not thought this through. But shortly its one pair at account. You look at the usual pairs movement, then you let both sides reach this movement, but your limit orders have the most lot size, then you take the profit of the stop orders and then wait for the limit orders. If you ask me what if the market do not continue 300 pips but from 150 pips begin to go back, then this is the preferable senario. Then you acheave a small profit then close all. I talk about the worst senario.

Is this something to go after o another disaster?
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