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The Swamp

  • #93,901
  • Dec 24, 2021 10:26am Dec 24, 2021 10:26am
Quoting gatorinla
I threw this together from memory.. They are not precise. The general Idea of rejection. A level is tested and a bunch of tp is made. And at the same time others enter. Such a level maybe 1343. That action causes price to go the other direction. On larger places the rejection tends to move further. The chart doesn't show the minor levels like *1316 1310 1307 1302.. Those are mainly for smaller closes like an h or 4h. The others would be more important on a slightly larger scale. Last week closing below 1260 was important on a week scale. But not...
1h closed below 1316 and 1310,, now lets see if 1310 turns to r...
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  • #93,902
  • Dec 24, 2021 11:38am Dec 24, 2021 11:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1h closed below 1316 and 1310,, now lets see if 1310 turns to r... {image}
I think next h close dynamic wise, under 1304. Opens some room to test 1298, 1291. and maybe 1284. Today under 1323 is still bearish to me. Closing the next h under 1304 may allow it to drop further today. If not other 1h closes below 1301 may do it too..
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  • #93,903
  • Dec 24, 2021 4:16pm Dec 24, 2021 4:16pm
The close I have. Other brokers I have are 1316, but those are a few seconds before this close. This one also shows pa was at 1321 at the high in this last minute. But end up dropping those 15 pips in the final minute.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,904
  • Dec 24, 2021 11:26pm Dec 24, 2021 11:26pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} wow missed all day with Christmas shopping what did you guys do with fx pairs
PLN and ZAR are not finished but its a good start. expecting another 20000 points drop before its done..
Whatever is happening in life remember when 1 door closes 4 more open up.. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
See everyone next year..
  • #93,905
  • Dec 26, 2021 5:19am Dec 26, 2021 5:19am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i'm just looking into charts. EUR/USD short 1.128 for next week targeting new lows. AUD/USD short 0.715 Stop 0.717 tp 0.710 EUR/GBP short 0.85 stop 0.854 - tp 0.84 USD/CAD long 1.285 stop 1.275 tp 1.3 EUR/CAD short 1.455 - stop 1.465 - tp 1.43
not really talking about next week since volume will be light. most are still in vacation
EUR/USD still short - i think i will be a problem if we trade above 1.14
AUD/USD - not really trading this one, but for a bullish case 0720 is the new support.
EUR/GBP - was one of my very good trades. - still think it will happen the same thing, good for shorting rally's 0850 area
USD/CAD - probably not gonna do anything this is very sensitive. so CAD like everything against usd gained strength also helped by crude oil
i think this pair is important because CAD going lower means Oil going higher and that means inflation expectation so USD strengthens
EUR/CAD - this working stop was wide very close to it. but i think again shorting 1.45/1.452 is very good, still think we can reach 1.43

Looking also into
GBP/USD very good week . i've been calling for 1.35 i think in this area i will probably short it. but really can't make much of the next 1/2 weeks maybe just short it and wait. at this point BOE not touching tapper. i usually only play the long side of GU, but 1.35/1.36 area could be good for a swing trade. short.
GBP/JPY veryy god move on this one i will try to buy it near 152.5 support - also playing USD/JPY as long as it is above 114. BOJ coming with new stimulus at the begining of the week.
USD/CHF - will buy the dips i existed ok but on Thursday already bot it back - also buying some EUR/CHF and just waiting. USD/CHF also have swap positive so i am buying dips and just wait.

again this is not the usual week to go into big trades, i do think some strength for USD can come in early January also RISK off in early January so i may leave some shorts also stock maket probably in DAX, IBEX witch are lagging and do not have a tech exposure.
ON a RISK off trade i will probably buy the Brasil ETF EWZ tbut like 10% lower and just wait 1-2 years.
i will have to study more

Also keep in mind that US Earnings Season starts middle of January so i am only expecting RISK off trades at tbe beg of january and probably a big range until we find out about earnings, keep in mind a lot of stocks are down (not seen on indices) so any upside surprises could push indices to all time highs again.
But the main thing will be earnings, economic data, so if they all come good we can prepare for the first Rate Hike in March. So all this combined even if we will not have a easy Q1 will probably help USD.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,906
  • Dec 26, 2021 5:28am Dec 26, 2021 5:28am
Quoting q_import
{quote} PLN and ZAR are not finished but its a good start. expecting another 20000 points drop before its done.. Whatever is happening in life remember when 1 door closes 4 more open up.. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! See everyone next year..
I don't get the idea here, with PLN
are you looking into usd/pln or eur/pln
and the drop you are expecting is drop of price in pl so up for the pairs or drop of for example usd/pln
so are you targeting 3.2 in USD/PLN ?

Also i guess trading USD/ZAR is because of omicron not being that strong so you are actually buying ZAR because South Africa was punish to much by western countries because of omicron ? and you are expecting the pair just to go back to where omicron started ? 13.6 ?
eur/zar should also be interesting.

this is actual very interesting.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,907
  • Dec 27, 2021 8:52am Dec 27, 2021 8:52am
gbp high at 3242.. Some R at 3433 and 3434.5, she may fall. Bulls look strong. A fall may bring 3301/08. 3267 has some S value.

Higher R 3454/55 ish
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  • #93,908
  • Dec 27, 2021 9:04am Dec 27, 2021 9:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think next h close dynamic wise, under 1304. Opens some room to test 1298, 1291. and maybe 1284. Today under 1323 is still bearish to me. Closing the next h under 1304 may allow it to drop further today. If not other 1h closes below 1301 may do it too..
Basically the same with closes under 1305 and or 1298... R wise Above 1323, it gets stronger 1323x till 1370. If she closes above 1370 she could make 1447. Still not an easy task. Pa is below 1447 1492 1343.. That is still bearish to me. Pa is above 1323 atm. To drop it needs to be rejected.. Then close below 1305 and 1298. (1291 1284 and so forth) low volume
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,909
  • Dec 27, 2021 9:11am Dec 27, 2021 9:11am
Quoting gatorinla
gbp high at 3242.. Some R at 3433 and 3434.5, she may fall. Bulls look strong. A fall may bring 3301/08. 3267 has some S value. Higher R 3454/55 ish
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  • #93,910
  • Dec 27, 2021 9:17am Dec 27, 2021 9:17am
Quoting gatorinla
gbp high at 3242.. Some R at 3433 and 3434.5, she may fall. Bulls look strong. A fall may bring 3301/08. 3267 has some S value. Higher R 3454/55 ish
The move up was strong.. 1h has formed a I Hammer. You need the second candle still.. but on the 15 min you could have shorted.
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  • #93,911
  • Dec 27, 2021 9:21am Dec 27, 2021 9:21am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The move up was strong.. 1h has formed a I Hammer. You need the second candle still.. but on the 15 min you could have shorted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeJrfXrvMdM {image}
as a scalp.. 3413 looks to come..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,912
  • Dec 27, 2021 9:29am Dec 27, 2021 9:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} as a scalp.. 3413 looks to come.. {image}
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,913
  • Dec 27, 2021 9:31am Dec 27, 2021 9:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {image}
3391 would be another st..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,914
  • Dec 27, 2021 9:57am Dec 27, 2021 9:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} as a scalp.. 3413 looks to come.. {image}
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  • #93,915
  • Dec 27, 2021 10:32am Dec 27, 2021 10:32am
In candle trading.. Stop loss on a hammer is. A high above the hammer. Possible short here below it..
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  • #93,916
  • Dec 27, 2021 10:37am Dec 27, 2021 10:37am
Quoting gatorinla
In candle trading.. Stop loss on a hammer is. A high above the hammer. Possible short here below it.. {image}
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  • #93,917
  • Dec 27, 2021 10:42am Dec 27, 2021 10:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {image}
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,918
  • Dec 27, 2021 11:49am Dec 27, 2021 11:49am
Quoting gatorinla
In candle trading.. Stop loss on a hammer is. A high above the hammer. Possible short here below it.. {image}
pa made a hh. candle stop should be hit.. Some possible R 3454/55.. But 2497 is a bigger one..
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  • #93,919
  • Dec 27, 2021 12:14pm Dec 27, 2021 12:14pm
A little scalp bounce in gold 1806.18.. Watching this area,
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,920
  • Dec 28, 2021 12:11am Dec 28, 2021 12:11am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I don't get the idea here, with PLN are you looking into usd/pln or eur/pln and the drop you are expecting is drop of price in pl so up for the pairs or drop of for example usd/pln so are you targeting 3.2 in USD/PLN ? Also i guess trading USD/ZAR is because of omicron not being that strong so you are actually buying ZAR because South Africa was punish to much by western countries because of omicron ? and you are expecting the pair just to go back to where omicron started ? 13.6 ? eur/zar should also be interesting. this is actual very interesting....
PLN is because the reserve bank said they where going to start pricing it right. lol which means is going to fall USDPLN CME is kind of supporting it.
Turkey, Poland, a couple of African countries came together and did a trade deal. DXY keeps gapping up and to close the gaps its driving other currencies up.
if the DXY hits 95.86 we could be in USD free fall driving everything up across the board the 15th really set things off. Also since this was a consolidation month Jan should give some nice runners to just jump into and ride.
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