Nothing changed. My EA backtested with 10 years of history. Worked excellent then and now too allready 1 year with real money.
Go here audited myfxbook results so far.
Go here audited myfxbook results so far.
- #45
- Dec 21, 2021 7:13am Dec 21, 2021 7:13am
- Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,516 Posts
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
In the end, the system does not accept a loss. Even if your final intention is to stop at 20% drawdown, you are still in need of trading volume increases of at least 40 times of that you use in the first order in a row. Eventually, 40 times the first trade won't be enough and you'll lose an important part of the balance.
I've seen many systems that rely on this same approach. All of them, finally, blow the account. That's why I see this system as not promising.
Everyone would rely on that type of strategy otherwise and institutions wouldn't require mathematicians to build their portfolio of algorithms. Averaging Down with martingale requires simple math that anyone can handle. Why did no one come to this simple approach of trading and instead spend such an amount of money to pay experts?
Go to myfxbook and browse for profitable systems. For example this one... pick this #1, running >10 years allready...
Why you think "no one come to this simple approach of trading" ??? you talked 1:1 with all hedge funds, banks etc...? "no one"... You live in your own limitations. This is why people cant be profitable.
It might be hedge funds use averaging down with SP500 or NQ100 or various stocks. When you do not use leverage you can sit forever in blue-chip companies' stocks drawdowns and open additional levels of positions.
The profitable strategy does not always need to be complicated. Most people are greedy, do not have enough capital, do not have the patience or want to "get rich fast" etc.. a lot reasons why people lose with averaging when used the wrong way. Of course when you go averaging with too big initial volume... will wipe out.. calculate risks maybe before doing something.
- #54
- Dec 21, 2021 5:16pm Dec 21, 2021 5:16pm
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,333 Posts
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return:
-77.5%
Martingale systems rely completely in one of the following two things: - There is an unlimited balance in your account, or - The market will always revert back to a previous price. And both of them are not true.
Even if you limit the loss of the martingale to 20%, the system lacks of robustness. At some point (even if your historical backtests say this is weird), the system will face a situation where consecutive losses of 20% will take place.
My final alternative: time tells
Or you need 50 years time?
{quote} I dont need to revert back to the previous price. All i need is some retracement. {quote} 4 brexits in a row?
- Where everyone sees a martingale you don't.
- Where everyone sees a revert back to some previous price, you see some retracement.
You close all trades far from the last trades open prices in order for your martingale to work. Both of these properties of your system can be identified in your trades. This implies that you need to revert back to some previous price and second you exponentially increase the trading volume after your equity drops. This, for the rest of the world, implies two concepts:
- Martingale system.
- Price reversal to previous level needed.
So, taking into account these conceptual differences between you and the rest, any discussion leads us nowhere.
Always ready to help
- #59
- Dec 22, 2021 7:14am Dec 22, 2021 7:14am
- Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Trader | 2,516 Posts
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
- #60
- Edited 7:45am Dec 22, 2021 7:23am | Edited 7:45am
{quote} "where PaulMF sees martingale", you mean... not "everyone".. Learn definitions of "Martingale" and "Averaging down". You should understand those are 2 different concepts. YES averaging down can imply raising deals volumes too. Yes averaging down expects that price will retrace. And yes - it is not 100% guaranteed that price will retrace to the needed level so you can't always get out with expected profits or at least break-even. As everything in trading - nothing 100% guaranteed, there are probabilities, risks, diversifications, etc try...
dont give away your knowledge for those who don't want it, a cup should be empty in order to fill it with knowledge...
btw interesting 10 years success story you gave... take a look.. he do not use averaging but extreme martingale..
Open BUY EURUSD at 01:00 + maybe some indicator (s?) used. About 40 entries per year.
Then SL is 90 pips and TP is 2.3 pips (with such risk/reward there >90% trades will be profitable, in this case 93% profitable)
In case of SL hit - immediately open SELL deal with 7x more deal value. All those SELL deals were 100% profitable so far (22 deals in 10 years).
risking "all in" 2 trades per year you are treated as very successful - >3000 tracking his results. Might be he earn good money as a signal provider. Not bad... only 2 days per year you have some stress when all might be wiped out.. but all the rest time you are the king with that strategy. 10 years consistent results... yea... looks very attractive for a lot of people.
for me... gepards your averaging/martingale seems more attractive than extreme martingale guy
why? I could invest for several months in you with less risk because your EA working only 1 year compared to 10 years. 22 deals in a row already... soon must come killer deal 
and yes you said only brexit like events can harm you... good... then I would turn off that EA 1 week before Brexit like event - just in case, even I see Brexit H1 day there were several retracements more than 200 pips in that day overall 1850 pips dive.. yes your EA could survive that but better turn off on that days.