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The Swamp

  • #93,561
  • Dec 17, 2021 2:04am Dec 17, 2021 2:04am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} anything above 1.131 is ok for longs.
we are below my level of 1.133
but above my level of 1.131- so longs still have to defend this with their lives.
if not - Danger ! Will Robinson !
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,562
  • Dec 17, 2021 2:11am Dec 17, 2021 2:11am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} we are below my level of 1.133 but above my level of 1.131- so longs still have to defend this with their lives. if not - Danger ! Will Robinson !
also 1.13 important - on a daily weekly basis
So i will have to probably wait more before adding
for bullish case 1.133 important level to get back

also i am a trend player so if it's still a range we just play below 1.14 and 1.12
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,563
  • Dec 17, 2021 2:45am Dec 17, 2021 2:45am
USD/TRY 16.2

I guess at this point he lost the battle
imo this cannot end well
and some contagion will happen
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,564
  • Dec 17, 2021 3:08am Dec 17, 2021 3:08am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} also 1.13 important - on a daily weekly basis So i will have to probably wait more before adding for bullish case 1.133 important level to get back also i am a trend player so if it's still a range we just play below 1.14 and 1.12
So for anyone that doesn't understand why the dollar is not stronger and new players.
what traders are speculating and it is very true
is the FED will play with Tapper and with rates DEPENDING on US data.
Problem is ECB will do the same.

but we are in an environment that Good Data is Good For currency BAD data is bad for currency thanks to BOE
so please keep in mind that things have changed.

keep also in mine while reading dumb websites like Zerohedge and other dumb permabears that SNB has goon negative for quite a while and doesn not seem to care.
10y yields has done nothing witch actually could mean a stagflation or even deflation is sight.

So listen to the market PA leads everything. also holidays coming trades will be without any sense. until january.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,565
  • Dec 17, 2021 3:17am Dec 17, 2021 3:17am
Quoting DMA Trader
USD/TRY 16.2 I guess at this point he lost the battle imo this cannot end well and some contagion will happen
He did it on purpose, he is delusional and doesn't give a shit about his own people.
43%of the working population is working with minimum wage and you know how much it is in USD? Less than 190 USD now.. Turkey is now officially a third world country.
He and his gang stole Billions of dollars, he is one of the richest politicians on the planet and he began his political career with absolutely nothing.
One day he will die and I doubt his grave will be in Turkey. Millions hate him.
  • #93,566
  • Dec 17, 2021 3:20am Dec 17, 2021 3:20am
Quoting DMA Trader
USD/TRY 16.2 I guess at this point he lost the battle imo this cannot end well and some contagion will happen
Do you think the contagion will hit the indices? or just other emerging market currencies? or do you mean in a literal sense i.e. anybody connected to business in Turkey will be impacted.
  • #93,567
  • Dec 17, 2021 3:22am Dec 17, 2021 3:22am
Quoting Connors
{quote} He did it on purpose, he is delusional and doesn't give a shit about his own people. 43%of the working population is working with minimum wage and you know how much it is in USD? Less than 190 USD now.. Turkey is now officially a third world country. He and his gang stole Billions of dollars, he is one of the richest politicians on the planet and he began his political career with absolutely nothing. One day he will die and I doubt his grave will be in Turkey. Millions hate him.
well i lost him when he cut rate. at this point what's his strategy ?
we can have a run in the banks.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,568
  • Dec 17, 2021 3:25am Dec 17, 2021 3:25am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} well i lost him when he cut rate. at this point what's his strategy ? we can have a run in the banks.
He made up a new economical model "China Model", he wants to have cheapest labour and believes Europe will get all his production done in Turkey but guess what? Turkey doesn't have resources to produce, she has to import materials to make exports. Only cheap labour can not be enough and Turkey is not China. China has massive resources and her own technology. Turkey doesn't.
  • #93,569
  • Dec 17, 2021 3:26am Dec 17, 2021 3:26am
Quoting Steamroller
{quote} Do you think the contagion will hit the indices? or just other emerging market currencies? or do you mean in a literal sense i.e. anybody connected to business in Turkey will be impacted.
No, at this point nobody cares about Turkey anymore. Foreign Direct Investment died, no capital is coming from abroad.
  • #93,570
  • Dec 17, 2021 3:27am Dec 17, 2021 3:27am
Quoting Steamroller
{quote} Do you think the contagion will hit the indices? or just other emerging market currencies? or do you mean in a literal sense i.e. anybody connected to business in Turkey will be impacted.
First of all be careful what you trade. because indices for US have a huge proportion of tech contrary to European indices
and SP500 and Nasdaq FANG names and also TSLA has huge % so you can keep the idices higher with a feew big trillion stocks going high
like AAPL MSFT AMZN GOO ... and so on

so careful cause i talk to a lot of people hedging stocks shorting indices which is dumb imo

same thing on contagion. look into Bank index first.
even if banks look great in US - last rally was without them
You also have Evergrande Kaisa and now a new company that will default - and first will be seen in Banks and Bankingindex.

i would be careful in this period especially on illiquid holidays. no margin or very low
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,571
  • Dec 17, 2021 3:30am Dec 17, 2021 3:30am
Quoting Connors
{quote} He made up a new economical model "China Model", he wants to have cheapest labour and believes Europe will get all his production done in Turkey but guess what? Turkey doesn't have resources to produce, she has to import materials to make exports. Only cheap labour can not be enough and Turkey is not China. China has massive resources and her own technology. Turkey doesn't.
i know but he is doing to many things at the same time.
China has the Bubble in real estate popping they are deleveraging now. and it will not be easy
China also took a different path of letting people fail - Real estate in China is huge in GDP
Also their currency is very strong atm also have surplus not deficit.

So there is no comparison atm.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,572
  • Dec 17, 2021 3:35am Dec 17, 2021 3:35am
Quoting Connors
{quote} No, at this point nobody cares about Turkey anymore. Foreign Direct Investment died, no capital is coming from abroad.
well keep us posted. I've also set up a vacation there and i am talking with some friends about a possible investment in real estate
but with this actions any gain we have because of FX maybe a bad idea even if it's something for us not a speculative play

any information you have is helpful thanks
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,573
  • Dec 17, 2021 4:32am Dec 17, 2021 4:32am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} well keep us posted. I've also set up a vacation there and i am talking with some friends about a possible investment in real estate but with this actions any gain we have because of FX maybe a bad idea even if it's something for us not a speculative play any information you have is helpful thanks
RUSSIA'S C.BANK SETS KEY RATE AT 8.50% (PREVIOUS 7.50%)
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,574
  • Dec 17, 2021 5:03am Dec 17, 2021 5:03am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} well keep us posted. I've also set up a vacation there and i am talking with some friends about a possible investment in real estate but with this actions any gain we have because of FX maybe a bad idea even if it's something for us not a speculative play any information you have is helpful thanks

My humble idea is to stay out of any investment opportunity if you are not a long term investor until you hear early elections. As soon as you hear there will be early elections buy anything you can find in the stock market and such. It is the cheapest market in the world.
  • #93,575
  • Dec 17, 2021 5:09am Dec 17, 2021 5:09am
Quoting Connors
{quote} My humble idea is to stay out of any investment opportunity if you are not a long term investor until you hear early elections. As soon as you hear there will be early elections buy anything you can find in the stock market and such. It is the cheapest market in the world.
it's a long term think. not touching stock there.
it's just something that we will probably use for holidays. so it can stay there for years. but on stocks no. i study a lot a company i have no knowledge of any company there also if we go down on markets hard probably stick with TSLA and buy more )

thanks for the feedback
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,576
  • Dec 17, 2021 5:10am Dec 17, 2021 5:10am
EUR/USD 1.132 again
Can we close this hour below 1.13 ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,577
  • Dec 17, 2021 6:01am Dec 17, 2021 6:01am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} anything above 1.131 is ok for longs.
That's the upper end of the range. You better get the week closing above 1323 first
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,578
  • Dec 17, 2021 6:23am Dec 17, 2021 6:23am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} That's the upper end of the range. You better get the week closing above 1323 first
1.132 is easy but i am short anyway don't have any longs on eur/usd
my longs are in GU above 1.33
also USD/CHF long on loss

so i am in dollar camp net. but EUR/USD i want some hours and day below 1.13 weekly also so i can add
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,579
  • Dec 17, 2021 6:30am Dec 17, 2021 6:30am
USD/TRY 17 another day another dollar
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,580
  • Dec 17, 2021 7:22am Dec 17, 2021 7:22am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} also 1.13 important - on a daily weekly basis So i will have to probably wait more before adding for bullish case 1.133 important level to get back also i am a trend player so if it's still a range we just play below 1.14 and 1.12
so far rejected a little but probably they can defend it
something it's out there to see this pair above 1.13
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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