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- #35,223
- Dec 15, 2021 2:37am Dec 15, 2021 2:37am
{quote} I see strenght here mate, I got entry long there, and it went down. {image}
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post13717230
And see if you recognise the relevant signs within the chart, compared to the principles.
I hope this helps
- #35,226
- Dec 15, 2021 8:13pm Dec 15, 2021 8:13pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Reading the TAPE | 2,389 Posts
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
- #35,227
- Dec 15, 2021 8:41pm Dec 15, 2021 8:41pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Reading the TAPE | 2,389 Posts
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
- #35,228
- Dec 16, 2021 3:32am Dec 16, 2021 3:32am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
{quote} Did you notice Danny took the trade inside the Tigger Number (H) and Trigger Number (L) at, you guessed it, HB.
Whilst I only trade Dax & Nas on m1 & s20 charts, I thought you might like to see this post from my old thread where I put what I learned from you and Tom to good use
Seasons Greetings to you & yours
Cheers
Islander
Posted elsewhere: "Whilst I studied VSA with Tom Williams at his home in the UK and its application in trading individual Stocks, I have adapted what I learned from Tom to my short term trading of Stock Market Indices, especially the Dax 40 in the mornings and the Nasdaq in the afternoons.
This 1 min chart of this morning's action on Dax shows the use of the Spread part of VSA"
Trading Levels with Aggressive, Volatile Volume
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #35,229
- Edited 5:33am Dec 16, 2021 3:54am | Edited 5:33am
- | Joined Feb 2021 | Status: Trader | 717 Posts
{quote} Gavin and I are in the camp that believes that RR is a totally erroneous notion. You never know how much the market will give you, so you shouldn't have a Reward in mind. The Market might give you 50 pips but might also give you 500 pips. This is also why we don't favor profit targets (Some of the TG team do use them ), you might have a profit target at 15 pips and it turns out the Market was willing to give you 150 pips. Ultimately, the point is you can't know the Reward, so the only "R" left to focus on is Risk. Mitigating Risk is job...
Just to clarify though I dont personally set profit targets based on a fixed RR ratio I.E 2rr or 3rr, but I am concious of that thing we are told as newbies where we would like a certain RR ratio just to balance out the wins and losses.
Even in some of the tradeguider guides it specifically says "you should aim for at least at least 2R or at very minimum 1R, because anything less than this could be detrimental to your account in the long run.
I see your saying that the market may give 10 pips, or 500 pips.
But surely this comes back to management? For example lets say Dannys trade had the potential for 100 pips, thats great but, Danny was never going to get anywhere near 100 pips if he trails his stop 5-10 pips behind the price.
Also with VSA this brings up the question of how should we speculate how price will behave whilst in a trade?
Conventional wisdom would tell me that......idealy we will make a big impulsive move, stop moved to breakeven early, and trail it behind a fast moving train, that would be the ideal.
But realistically I assume that in a short trade, price will make lower lows and lower highs, price will retrace on its way down, price may retrace up to 76% of its swing which may mean it must be allowed to retrace back up into the drawdown area.
If we are aware of some of the wyckoff methodology then we may assume that price will enter periods of re-distribution on its way down (on lower timeframes) which is fine, so leave enough room on stop to account for this?
If in a short trade, you see a no demand upthrust, you wait for next bar to confirm, you set a sell stop at the low of the confirmation bar, stop at either the trigger high or swing high. Lets say a 20 pip stop.
Even if you are a person that only targets 1R surely you must still be prepared for price to retrace within this 20 pip move? Especially back to the origin where significant supply entered the market (often near the start of the swing, like an order block/SD zone).
.......but yeah long story short, I should probably adapt my mindset to simply take whats given so if its a negative RR ratio, then it is what it is.
- #35,236
- Dec 16, 2021 9:00pm Dec 16, 2021 9:00pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Reading the TAPE | 2,389 Posts
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
- #35,237
- Edited 9:16am Dec 17, 2021 7:08am | Edited 9:16am
- Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,460 Posts
There was some decent movement this week, but I couldn't seem to find anything that would stick. 
Today I was trading USDCAD, took an UT off Yesterday's HVC and exited the trade and reversed when I saw demand come in during LO off the HVC from Asia. USDCAD is essentially the inverse of AUDUSD so I tend to watch HVC from Asia on CAD pairs.
I started reading some of Pres78's journal because of Frag8383's post, I've read it before but its been a while and when I did read his journal is was only bits and pieces. I ran across this post and essentially this USDCAD trade fit his VZA trade perfectly.
Seriously read his post.
He says to look for the high of the previous day's zone to be taken out. Which this trade took out the high after Asia today. After the high has been taken out look for price to test the 50%, which during LO we see a HV shakeout into the 50%. And lastly, after the 50% has been tested to find a test/NS into the high of the zone, which on the M5 chart, there is a test in a rising market into the high of the zone.
Also don't forget about the plan that HG laid out.
Out..
Today I was trading USDCAD, took an UT off Yesterday's HVC and exited the trade and reversed when I saw demand come in during LO off the HVC from Asia. USDCAD is essentially the inverse of AUDUSD so I tend to watch HVC from Asia on CAD pairs.
I started reading some of Pres78's journal because of Frag8383's post, I've read it before but its been a while and when I did read his journal is was only bits and pieces. I ran across this post and essentially this USDCAD trade fit his VZA trade perfectly.
Seriously read his post.
He says to look for the high of the previous day's zone to be taken out. Which this trade took out the high after Asia today. After the high has been taken out look for price to test the 50%, which during LO we see a HV shakeout into the 50%. And lastly, after the 50% has been tested to find a test/NS into the high of the zone, which on the M5 chart, there is a test in a rising market into the high of the zone.
Also don't forget about the plan that HG laid out.
Out..
- #35,238
- Dec 17, 2021 7:15am Dec 17, 2021 7:15am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #35,239
- Dec 17, 2021 7:18am Dec 17, 2021 7:18am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
