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The Swamp

  • #93,341
  • Dec 13, 2021 1:28pm Dec 13, 2021 1:28pm
My current bias is bullish for the E$ until around 1.1350-60 over the next day or two. Then it has to prove itself to really go higher. I prefer to trade on charts and not on the news. My hourly chart is lining up with my 2 day chart in how I read them. Engulfing candle with no wick is a good thing. I also think that round numbers are mentally attractive for most traders. Hence the heavy flirting with 1300. I believe the bigger trend is up. I am not factoring in any big new events or noise. Good luck picking your trading direction.
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Wick versus candlestick ratio will set you free.
  • #93,342
  • Dec 13, 2021 3:00pm Dec 13, 2021 3:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} my 1 min is 1291 now.. I look to add. if you starts running below it.. 1291 and the older R at 1292 should support some. The reversal candle is into this support. From 1307 R
it appears to be working as plan suggest. A pure drop since 1307.. 1283 I thought could bounce.. st closes below 1279 should eliminate that. On today's close , if below 1291.. I think it will retest 1260ish support or deeper. Probably deeper. The week supports in purple..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,343
  • Dec 13, 2021 3:02pm Dec 13, 2021 3:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} . the first time missed. it should push up to 1307.4 at least 1 more time.. Possible dt on the 1min.. wishful thinking. {image}
sorry.. it didnt return..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,344
  • Dec 13, 2021 10:13pm Dec 13, 2021 10:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} sorry.. it didnt return..
i still have 1short left on eur.usd i hope it does not stop falling again
gu back below 1.32
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,345
  • Dec 13, 2021 10:37pm Dec 13, 2021 10:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it appears to be working as plan suggest. A pure drop since 1307.. 1283 I thought could bounce.. st closes below 1279 should eliminate that. On today's close , if below 1291.. I think it will retest 1260ish support or deeper. Probably deeper. The week supports in purple.. {image}
gonna put my tp at 1.126 area - i wanted 1.124 but so far nothing FED is so closed and they can't push it to 1.12 again ?
AUD going also down
NZD destroyed with GU
USD/CAD got even higher than my tp

so now again people buying dips. witch can be bad. because USD is strong again

now plan is simple
1 - light trades before FED

2 - FED comes and imo doesn't talk about rates and only tappers below 30B a month - that's the bullish case for Risk and bearish for EUR
3 - FED comes and tappers more, and talk about raising rates next year, bearish for RISK and bullish for USD -

4 - later the week BOE and ECB again doing nothing - very bad for EUR and GBP

5 - imo BOE will tapper and ECB - and talk about rates. so we go higher in on GBP, EUR


of course i will be left with small position, and trade small until we clear this week because even if someone is right about FED he can be wrong on BOE or ECB.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,346
  • Dec 13, 2021 11:34pm Dec 13, 2021 11:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it appears to be working as plan suggest. A pure drop since 1307.. 1283 I thought could bounce.. st closes below 1279 should eliminate that. On today's close , if below 1291.. I think it will retest 1260ish support or deeper. Probably deeper. The week supports in purple.. {image}
testing 1 min R.. 1260 ish or 1287/92 next.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,347
  • Dec 13, 2021 11:38pm Dec 13, 2021 11:38pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i still have 1short left on eur.usd i hope it does not stop falling again gu back below 1.32
"Hope" direction is a terrible thing in trading. Just "hope" wherever it goes, your able to catch the green part. PA atm is below all my trend directions including the 1 min. It just happens to be on past week support levels.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,348
  • Dec 13, 2021 11:59pm Dec 13, 2021 11:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} "Hope" direction is a terrible thing in trading. Just "hope" wherever it goes, your able to catch the green part. PA atm is below all my trend directions including the 1 min. It just happens to be on past week support levels.
When the day closed yesterday. it was sub of center BB. The week closed below 1323. I'm not saying its not on support. It is on support. I'm saying bulls are not showing any ass cleavage. As in running uphill. They could skyrocket this off support. But they have not for weeks. Its been a range. Why would today be the day? The FED are already supposed to cull asset purchases. Maybe FOMC will do it. But most think its earlier rate hike positive.

Its like this. A loud young guy walks in a bar. He claims you can kick everyone's ass in the bar. A tattooed older gentlemen sits in a dark corner. He slowly quietly sips on a iceless drink.

Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,349
  • Dec 14, 2021 12:00am Dec 14, 2021 12:00am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} "Hope" direction is a terrible thing in trading. Just "hope" wherever it goes, your able to catch the green part. PA atm is below all my trend directions including the 1 min. It just happens to be on past week support levels.
well i've done my part now i hope ))
don't know what the heck is EUR/USD doing but hopefully it doesnt get avove 1.1282 because i will have to reduce.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,350
  • Dec 14, 2021 12:04am Dec 14, 2021 12:04am
USD/TRY above 14 again
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,351
  • Dec 14, 2021 12:09am Dec 14, 2021 12:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} When the day closed yesterday. it was sub of center BB. The week closed below 1323. I'm not saying its not on support. It is on support. I'm saying bulls are not showing any ass cleavage. As in running uphill. They could skyrocket this off support. But they have not for weeks. Its been a range. Why would today be the day? The FED are already supposed to cull asset purchases. Maybe FOMC will do it. But most think its earlier rate hike positive. Its like this. A loud young guy walks in a bar. He claims you can kick everyone's ass in the bar....
Oh dear Gator, did that guy just pass out or die? What a way for him to go!
  • #93,352
  • Dec 14, 2021 12:11am Dec 14, 2021 12:11am
Quoting DMA Trader
USD/TRY above 14 again
They want to hurt Erdoğan a lot. Happened during Trump's admin. Happening now again. Same ol' same ol'
  • #93,353
  • Dec 14, 2021 12:15am Dec 14, 2021 12:15am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Oh dear Gator, did that guy just pass out or die? What a way for him to go!
That shoe on the esophagus said it all. His eyes would lack any white. Blood red, and your dead.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,354
  • Dec 14, 2021 12:19am Dec 14, 2021 12:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} "Hope" direction is a terrible thing in trading. Just "hope" wherever it goes, your able to catch the green part. PA atm is below all my trend directions including the 1 min. It just happens to be on past week support levels.
1 min flipped. 5 min 1284.. Im think 1289/92 is a sweet spot. As long as this atm low held, before reaching 1289. A possible s 1289/92 with a tight stop.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,355
  • Dec 14, 2021 12:20am Dec 14, 2021 12:20am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} They want to hurt Erdoğan a lot. Happened during Trump's admin. Happening now again. Same ol' same ol'

strange there was big intervention yesterday and now are are back to lows for Lira.
can't trade against Lira so this moves is based on local fx exchange which also i understand has worse rates now.
bot a little more here. probably will make me go on vacation there.
amazing what deals you can get now.

chart is from March this year, amazing
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,356
  • Dec 14, 2021 12:47am Dec 14, 2021 12:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1 min flipped. 5 min 1284.. Im think 1289/92 is a sweet spot. As long as this atm low held, before reaching 1289. A possible s 1289/92 with a tight stop.
Yesterday a normal move was 1307.4.. It went to 1307.1. PA usually hits the mark closer than .03. I tp my 1307 shorts on 1 min flip. Since pa didnt make a low below yesterday yet. I placed another 1307 pending short. As well as a few 1289/91. Tight stops on all
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,357
  • Dec 14, 2021 1:05am Dec 14, 2021 1:05am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} strange there was big intervention yesterday and now are are back to lows for Lira. can't trade against Lira so this moves is based on local fx exchange which also i understand has worse rates now. bot a little more here. probably will make me go on vacation there. amazing what deals you can get now. chart is from March this year, amazing {image}
I got the major real week supports closed and older day ones. Watch to see if the day closes are below these. we were in a lower pattern weeks ago. This current one has 4 days of weakening. Tomorrow you will see if it dropped more or not. - 1279 is a lower close below a s/r. -1260 on the week is below my week supports.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,358
  • Dec 14, 2021 1:08am Dec 14, 2021 1:08am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yesterday a normal move was 1307.4.. It went to 1307.1. PA usually hits the mark closer than .03. I tp my 1307 shorts on 1 min flip. Since pa didnt make a low below yesterday yet. I placed another 1307 pending short. As well as a few 1289/91. Tight stops on all
i just closed my euro shorts here, no eur/usd short until after FED

i will probably stay out of the market unless some big moves above 50 pips

most of the timeframes on all pairs point to a stronger dollar. so you can't also go against usd imo.
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,359
  • Dec 14, 2021 1:09am Dec 14, 2021 1:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I got the major real week supports closed and older day ones. Watch to see if the day closes are below these. we were in a lower pattern weeks ago. This current one has 4 days of weakening. Tomorrow you will see if it dropped more or not. - 1279 is a lower close below a s/r. -1260 on the week is below my week supports. {image}
Same levels.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,360
  • Dec 14, 2021 1:12am Dec 14, 2021 1:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Same levels. {image}

its in a support area, no argument. Still bulls dont have what it takes to rise. A breakout is coming. What direction? I will wait for NETFLIX to pick it up.

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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