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(binned per thread starter’s request)The "Thinking is Optional" S

  • #101
  • Dec 6, 2021 4:11am Dec 6, 2021 4:11am
Quoting Froggy
{quote} This one may run down for a while!!!?
Who knows... Actually any nice idea about when to exit the trade?
  • #102
  • Dec 6, 2021 4:57am Dec 6, 2021 4:57am
Quoting lorecavoli
{quote} Who knows... Actually any nice idea about when to exit the trade?
If I could only know for sure..., The USD hasn't been bullish like this for some years according to the weekly COT report. I like to see 54-53 soon.but it will probably go north!!!
Keep your eye on the PA!
Stay green!!!
  • #103
  • Dec 6, 2021 5:08am Dec 6, 2021 5:08am
Quoting Froggy
{quote} If I could only know for sure..., The USD hasn't been bullish like this for some years according to the weekly COT report. I like to see 54-53 soon.but it will probably go north!!! Keep your eye on the PA!
We are hanging on a big support... If it goes north I have I close at BE.
  • #104
  • Dec 6, 2021 5:09am Dec 6, 2021 5:09am
Quoting lorecavoli
{quote} We are hanging on a big support... If it goes north I have I close at BE.
Stay green!!!
  • #105
  • Dec 6, 2021 10:00am Dec 6, 2021 10:00am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #106
  • Dec 6, 2021 10:13am Dec 6, 2021 10:13am
Quoting Winston Reed
I've temporarily changed admin settings to limit posts to those with medium impact to prevent idiots like BJ from polluting this thread. Those without medium impact need only subscribe and message me that you've done so then I'll subscribe to you. Buddies will be able to post. Sorry for the inconvenience but this is the way to take out the trash for now.
I concur
Time always comes before price
  • #107
  • Dec 6, 2021 3:48pm Dec 6, 2021 3:48pm
Quoting lorecavoli
{quote} Nice trade! {image}
Did you get kicked out at breakeven or jumped out before that 4h candle?
Stay green!!!
  • #108
  • Dec 9, 2021 7:35am Dec 9, 2021 7:35am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #109
  • Dec 9, 2021 8:27am Dec 9, 2021 8:27am
Quoting Froggy
{quote} Did you get kicked out at breakeven or jumped out before that 4h candle?
kicked out unfortunately... I was being too greedy and I wasn't in front of the screen...
  • #110
  • Dec 11, 2021 8:34am Dec 11, 2021 8:34am
2022 is upon us.

So far this year my humble TE is up 36%.

In other threads I've seen much about win rate and such. Some think a win rate of 50% is some sort of benchmark that defines whether or not your system is successful based on the system or just plain money management. This is as if to say that if your system has a win rate of 50% or more then money management is not needed or is unimportant. How ridiculous.

How many of you have seen someone win 9 out of 10 trades in a row then blow it all on the next trade. There's your win rate for ya.

Those with very high win rates are usually scalpers. They actually need extremely good money management skills as they tend to take profit very quickly.

Successful and profitable trading comes down to 90% money management and 10% win rate. You can be very profitable with a 30% win rate.

Going forward I hope to provide some additional hints for trading this system more successfully for those interested and for those who wonder how to avoid some false signals with the fast MA crosses.
  • #111
  • Dec 11, 2021 9:06am Dec 11, 2021 9:06am
Excellent post and I look forward to the promise of your last sentence. Onward to 2022!
  • #112
  • Dec 11, 2021 12:36pm Dec 11, 2021 12:36pm
Quoting Winston Reed
2022 is upon us. So far this year my humble TE is up 36%. In other threads I've seen much about win rate and such. Some think a win rate of 50% is some sort of benchmark that defines whether or not your system is successful based on the system or just plain money management. This is as if to say that if your system has a win rate of 50% or more then money management is not needed or is unimportant. How ridiculous. How many of you have seen someone win 9 out of 10 trades in a row then blow it all on the next trade. There's your win rate for ya. Those...
Thanks @Winston
You dimostrated that something where thinking was not needed it's profitable.
Well done
  • #113
  • Dec 12, 2021 8:58am Dec 12, 2021 8:58am
Quoting piprac83
Excellent post and I look forward to the promise of your last sentence. Onward to 2022!
LOL. No promise but hoping to help as best I can.
  • #114
  • Dec 12, 2021 8:59am Dec 12, 2021 8:59am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Thanks @Winston You dimostrated that something where thinking was not needed it's profitable. Well done
Yes. While “thinking is optional” it sure helps to use a smidge of common sense.
  • #115
  • Dec 14, 2021 3:57pm Dec 14, 2021 3:57pm
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Moving Average Strategy.pdf   69 KB | 630 downloads

The attached PDF is an update to the original system. The original system can still be used but for now I will be using the updated system.

This update will help but not eliminate false signals. No system can be free of false signals. The antidote to false signals is a rigidly applied program of money management that limits risk and promotes profit.
  • #116
  • Dec 15, 2021 7:11am Dec 15, 2021 7:11am
Quoting Winston Reed
{image} The attached PDF is an update to the original system. The original system can still be used but for now I will be using the updated system. This update will help but not eliminate false signals. No system can be free of false signals. The antidote to false signals is a rigidly applied program of money management that limits risk and promotes profit.
Great, thanks Winston. Will you use it also on H1 or only on daily charts like in your other thread?
  • #117
  • Dec 15, 2021 7:15am Dec 15, 2021 7:15am
Quoting Winston Reed
{image} The attached PDF is an update to the original system. The original system can still be used but for now I will be using the updated system. This update will help but not eliminate false signals. No system can be free of false signals. The antidote to false signals is a rigidly applied program of money management that limits risk and promotes profit.
Would you mind posting some examples please?
  • #118
  • Dec 23, 2021 6:43pm Dec 23, 2021 6:43pm
This is a moving average thread emphasizing trading with "the trend". My personal MA system may change as the thread proceeds but I will always indicate exactly which MAs I am using and how I am using them. If your system relies mostly on MAs then please post some charts with examples and explanations.

I've changed the thread a bit to allow other's to post their own MA systems as long as the system relies mostly on MAs. My own personal MA system will likely fluctuate as I experiment. Despite the fluctuations my system paradigm will remain consistent and I will explain that now:

1. I use long term moving average/s to define the current trend on one time frame. I do not look at longer time frames for the "larger" trend.

2. Long term moving averages may be as low as 100 or as high as 1000 or maybe higher. Whatever the long term MA is will in essence be my trend that I intend to trade with.

3. If I use 2 long term MAs then usually they will be the same length but each one will be shifted opposite the other. For example if I am using two 200 MAs then one will be shifted +20 and the other -20.

4. I use short term moving averages to provide the entry signal. Usually I will use 2 short term moving averages and often will be the same length but each MA will be shifted opposite each other. For example if I use a 10 MA then one will be shifted -1 and the other +1, or -2 and +2. This produces a rather consistent ribbon-like MA.

5. Trend determination: The negative shifted long term MA determines the trend when it crosses the positively shifted MA.


Below is the content of post #1 posted 12/23/2021.

I am aware of the limitations of moving averages and moving average crosses and the works, so those of you itching to make the standard critical comments can save them for elsewhere.

"Thinking is Optional" because in most cases the MAs signal when to buy and when to sell thus minimizing decision making.

Although perhaps not necessarily novel I present here a paradigm of moving average usage that may be helpful to some who wish to minimize "price action" interpretation in favor of something that will often tell you when to sell or buy. It will certainly not be without false signals but if you follow along I think you'll find it has merit.

A few standard thread rules for the usual scoffers and such:
1. Limit the chatter and post a chart instead.
2. Save the standard criticisms of moving averages for another thread.
3. Your MA system is welcome but please post explanatory charts with examples.
3. No profanity - zero.
  • #119
  • Dec 23, 2021 6:53pm Dec 23, 2021 6:53pm
This is a 60 minute EURJPY. The red 200 MA is below the blue 200 MA so sells are desired. The cross of the 10 MAs is the signal. Notice that even though price is above the 200 MAs that sells are still desired since the red 200 MA is below the blue 200 MA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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More examples.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #120
  • Dec 23, 2021 6:55pm Dec 23, 2021 6:55pm
This is USDCAD 60 minute. You can see for yourselves how the red 200 MA defines the trend. There is no need to look at any other time frame if you are looking at this chart. Just trade the chart in front of you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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