My way of seeing the market

Interesting hint! I tried to think about what you said. Could it be maybe that on one side the price is being pushed more strongly (in this case, the bull step formation), on the other it's more a chain reaction/inefficient steep leg (altough most likely a similar step formation on a 10 secs chart)? Or is that way over thinking your comment? I see all legs as inefficient and likely to collapse at least to their mid, even the bull legs in the steps did, but were bought back by market participants.

Anyway, I generally love those steps and I see them everywhere fractally (every step to me is mean reversion of the previous leg and oftentime I check and we are headed towards a bigger leg middle and from there a "bigger pic" reversal has good probability of happening, etc. Of course this is just the general idea for me and not set in stone as markets can just do whatever they want). Powerful stuff! I hope it still work tomorrow morning... (kidding)

To me also, the first down leg seemed to initiate that kind of step behavior too... The difference perhaps seems to be in the steepness of the former bear legs vs the latter bull legs in the steps.

Also, on another note : Haha, I was seconds away from answering something similar to you to the guy on your thread, but did not want to turn it into a shit show, especially after you asked people to stay on topic. Typical forex factory/trading forums stuff... lol... There's always a guy who comes from nowhere and trashes talk without realizing the guy at the other end is trading for a living.

Thanks Phoenix,

Yes emotions are the culprit for me, it's like a negative hypnosis, exactly what the market needs for fuel it seems because it's a guaranteed blow up of the account. Frustration is my biggest enemy. I am working on that... Usually though the pain gives a clue about what is not working properly in the approach...

I tend to do very well when I go back to really basic stuff. I just need to take the damn trade and stop tinkering with it too much. Really basic stuff at the core of markets, not like an indicator, or whatever, but stop and think about what is at the core of markets as you understand them after thousands of hours of screen time. For example, I am operating on the very basic assumption that tradeable instruments have a mean reversion component embedded in their price movements from the microsecond legs and upward to the monthly, whether you are in a channel, range or a steep trend or whatever; it is present. For me everything is based on that, as I have come to realize not so long ago. From a really basic approach it is technically possible to build upon a trade that is already a winner through the use of various combinations derived from the basic principle, under the right general conditions and only when the occasion presents itself again. But from doing the really basic stuff the opportunities start to appear out of every corner of the charts. If I operate from the get-go with the idea to compound a winner without any care for anything else, or to bring the position to the end of the chart, profits usually vanish in front of my eyes because the probability to get taken out at b/e after a small retrace, if the stop is hanging in the way, is extremely high and it usually does. I created a few crazy trades like that only to see them evaporate in a split second because I was no longer operating from the basic model approach I initiated the first contract with and was instead wishfully thinking and over complicating the situation because the idea of the mother of all wins was dangling in front of my eyes (reloading like a price chaser/ bag holder at the extreme). A epic fail like that is enough to throw me off balance and into the downward spiral of frustration as much as taking a big loss, which are technically almost the same. So mistakes are to be avoided at all costs! For me it now all boils down to "Can you wait?". Assumption being that really good trades are served on a silver platter a dozen+ times a session, but it is worth loading approx only 1-2% or less of the time you are watching a chart and those moments are somewhat randomly distributed across a session and are usually the times you want the least to load as a retail newb trader chasing price (always one step behind). Retail newbs like us instinctively only want to chase price and feel safe even if it actually means getting rekt in reality. So yeah, patience is the key.

Maybe a little early?

It's a very nice way of trading. It seems viewing the charts from far away and flattened at first helps for those with a tendency to split hairs like me...

Thanks for responding. I’m having difficulty gauging how price bounces should look like live as it happens, but I’m working on that. I’m trying to follow price flow as it bounces and I’m trying to gauge when it’s time to cut the trade. For example, sometimes I see price stalling after an advance, at the extreme of the bar. I’m still not sure if it means to stay in or exit the trade, or if it is even relevant at all. As I understand it, every micro level in the way counts and I should watch bid/ask against it to see if price is bouncing. It seems when I start paying attention too much to every microlevels I cut almost every trade ultra early because it does bounce but comes back. Kind of like micro bounces. Maybe I need to wait more on a candle basis to effectively see the difference, but often if it does bounce and I wait for the close of the bar it will be too late. I need to keep practicing much more, I think. I’m probably over complicating it to an extent also lol.

Also, about my previous message from friday, I don't know if I said something that came off wrong (probably not), but if so it was really not my intention to do so. I don't really know how I come across sometimes on the internet, that's why I'm bringing that up... I'm sorry. What I meant is I was about to tell the other guy to fuck off but I didn't want to hijack your thread.

Anyway, I appreciate what you (and JensG) are doing/have done a lot and I'm really dedicated to learning how to make it work.

You are over analysing micro levels, bid/ask, those things are all a bit too much (too detailed),.. price movement will become second nature with screen time, a bit like driving.

Hi Jay

I feel a mean reversion system using order flow that’s based around the M1 chart is by far the easiest way to be profitable in the markets.
Expansion of price is proportion to current volume levels, which should tell us that there is a boundary on the charts that is tested but rarely broken.
Therefore if we measure volume, we will know when expansion of price is about to halt and we know where a high probability reversal trade should be placed.
Without volume, liquidity isn’t present on the chart as it’s stored off market and used for other business ventures. When volume increases, the money is attracted back into markets to trap smaller players and profit from them.

Cheers

I waited for break of small levels before taking the trades.

This one there was the small level in the mid, took the trade and tried to see if it did bounce off it, but it travelled through it fast, so I held, moved my stop 2-3 ticks below market when I was up 4-5 pips. Missed the "ideal" entry a couple ticks below when we made it back inside the support.

You got it Jay.

I need to wake up earlier now it seems!

This one really felt straight forward. No chasing, the pitfall I'm most commonly falling into... Damn it, good trades are just "there", everything lines up, bars have strength behind them, no bullshit... Other times it "feels" as though it's just a "picture" of the real thing with nothing behind it... (ex.: The micro level gets overpowered both ways and finally price does something, but the pa sometimes feel unreliable for that particular situation, so probably better to stay out.)

edit:

Also, a way for me to stop overanalyzing every microlevels in the vicinity: I just try to focus on the ones that price seems to bounce a lot on... It was already explained a few times by Veni or JensG), but it just finally made sense today what it meant... Unless I'm missing the point again lol. Like, a micro level is not really a level until price bounces off/on it a few times and confirms the presence of something blocking the way. Before, I would be too focus on every little wicks that didn't even had one bounce yet and was trying to avoid trading across them... (outcome : almost impossible to take a trade and everything seem completely random). (last edit, sorry)

Rather late to the party here.....

.....but I recognise your way of viewing the market. Especially the breakout trading strategy.

Do you find you that you get sucked into a lot of fakeout moves with that strategy?

Hi MatDerKater,

I'm trying not to trade breakouts actually, at least not "macro ones", I'm always trying to travel withinside of recent price movements. Trying not to push price.

This is in theory, and I'm still working on my approach. Recently, I realized I don't pay enough attention to the macro picture. For example, I often pick counter trend trades, the idea is often good when focussed on details, but it removes a few % probability off the bet from the get-go. This particular tendency may or may not come from the fact that I have traded a very volatile instrument for a long time and picked up wrong habits.

Anyway, i digress... But as I said a few posts ago, my approach is more aligned with mean reversion of recent prices than breakouts...

I’m more accustomed to nq price action, which makes sense. We are trying to recognize patterns we see over and over after all. It feels as though I have watched this index for centuries now.



It's raining trades.

The reasons I did not spend much time on forums since I started “trading” is for one, there are way too many inputs from way too many people for a beginner to focus on the right details. And second is because I hate crowds in general. I don’t like the fact that random people start coming in and break everything. There are a lot of great people too, but I couldn’t begin to see that before I had spent a lot of time in front of my screen trying to learn on my own.

I realized it doesn’t even matter what I write here. Nobody reads trading journals. People don’t have time to waste on a sound and simple approach. They are busy chasing the holy grail. For real, nobody even read my journal except for a few regulars, which is, don’t get me wrong, totally great! It means I can write whatever I want, and if I had it, I could post up the so-called "holy grail" and nobody would even pick it up. lol

Agreed.

Far too much noise in here, and far too many who quite simply have no idea what they are doing, who have no handle on how the markets move, which of course doesn't prevent them from pontificating on the markets as though they were George Soros....

....and as a newcomer, the post moderation process is brutal, with posts simply not appearing for whatever reasons.

I took a few forex trades yesterday and did not had the chance to upload them. I am focussing more and more on currencies as I am adjusting my schedule. Canuck zombie trader. I am beginning to see a big difference in s/r reliability of the currencies, and it gives actual time to make adjustments.