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Attachments: vsa with Malcolm
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vsa with Malcolm

I'm back.

Here are my positions from today.

1-Short after Weakness and NO DEMAND on this highest volume bar low as HG show. It got sl.

2-Longs after I noticed on M15 is NO SUPPLY and a kind of shakeout-wick for confirm. I closed if after I have seen there is resistance on m1 and there was bearish rejection.

3-Took long after I noticed shakeout on HIGH VOLUME BAR OF SESSION (Hiddengap idea) and NO SUPPLY. I made BE there because price reject SMA20, and next move down could be downtrend.

4-Longs on M5, There was shakeout on SMA20 and area of support.

I think I made some bad moves, but you could tell me what do you see.
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Daytrader
Fixed. 2.5 working now.
Attached File
File Type: mq4 TG ATR HISTROGRAM.mq4   38 KB | 53 downloads
Daytrader
Quoting trezo
, but you could tell me what do you see. {image} {image} {image}
Looks like your only losses were the counter trend plays that you took at the start which you didnt really have to take.

You came out profitable with your longs though so looks like your on the right track.
Trezo, it is good that you display your trades and their outcome to solicit explanations to become better.

I went through the images of your trades and wondered why you took any short without confirmation...such as a downbar and a close below the low of the no-demand. You never waited for confirmation or for price to reveal to you that a change of trend was taking place. Besides, there was no background indication of weakness so why did you take a sell trade?

Secondly, the background was strength. Price was trending up with higher lows and higher highs. On the 5 minutes chart where your trades began we also see a shakeout with the next bar up trapping shorts and adding to the background strength. Remember, in Master the Markets book, Tom Williams said that current price action can never erase background indication. Now, we have two background indications of strength: uptrend and shakeout. The next question is where to make an entry.

This is where HiddenGap's strategy comes in. In the first entry (speaking from the 5 minutes chart), you would have gone into a little drawdown after the upbar confirmation of the no-supply bar two bars behind. I am convinced that profit-taking made price make a brief retracement. This entry is marked as V-1 (vertical line 1). This would have been a good entry setup but the price action was 'weird' as if price was whipsawing. In hindsight, doable but unstable.

The retracement did not go below the halfback of the shakeout. This is proof that there is still professional buying. This is also one of the ways I guage buyers or sellers exhaustion or trend exhaustion. Above the halfback we get another entry — a no-supply bar with the next bar up. You could take the long here confidently but that would not be strictly following your system which can lead to failure in the long run. I marked this as V-2 (vertical line 2) on the 5 minutes chart.

Now, the interesting part. Since the background is strength we are looking for longs only. Not only that, they must be above either the HB or the high of the trigger bar. They must also be above the 20 SMA for the system's entry requirement to be complete. We see two consecutive downbars on volume lesser than the previous two bars with a confirming upbar above the high of the trigger bar (the shakeout) and also above the 20 SMA of the bbands. Here, your entry requirements for a long is complete. I mark this as V-3 (vertical line 3). This is the HiddenGap entry, not the ones you labeled.

You were in profit but not from following your system or knowing what you were doing. It was a fluke. I did not see any entry criteria in the longs you took. You don't wait for a confirmation of low volume test to enter a market. Well, you are in profit and that is what counts. Others may certainly offer better explanation but this is also one of my trade ideas I have just related to you.
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Fred
Quoting Chronus
Trezo, it is good that you display your trades and their outcome to solicit explanations to become better. I went through the images of your trades and wondered why you took any short without confirmation...such as a downbar and a close below the low of the no-demand. You never waited for confirmation or for price to reveal to you that a change of trend was taking place. Besides, there was no background indication of weakness so why did you take a sell trade? Secondly, the background was strength. Price was trending up with higher lows and higher...
1. I took short because first candle 16:30 (usa open) was bullish, they quickly extinguished it. I recognized it as weakness. Then they made ND on resistance and HIGHEST VOLUME BAR LOW, and I took shorts when they broke ND low. Also my trend indicators (these from tg as HG and Paul sent) and SMA was for short. Thats my opinion, whats yours?

2.Background was strong on m5,m15 thats why I took longs, and you are asking about confirmation. I just took it because background was strong, uptrend etc. and got shakeout there on m5 or m15.

1. I have a question. Do you entry on break of high of no demand?

2. Second question. If I remember good NS should has lower low, and ND higher high. This rule doesnt match with V1 and V3. What do you think?
Daytrader
Quoting trezo
{quote} 1. I took short because first candle 16:30 (usa open) was bullish, they quickly extinguished it. I recognized it as weakness. Then they made ND on resistance and HIGHEST VOLUME BAR LOW, and I took shorts when they broke ND low. Also my trend indicators (these from tg as HG and Paul sent) and SMA was for short
The indicators were definetely bullish on M5 and M15 mate

Its true they did flip over on M1 but that weakness that you see was just a pullback. You would be wanting to see the M15 and M5 roll-over before looking for a short, based on the plan that HG laid out.
Today on -

1. Took longs because there was a test, with earlier strong bullish candle, and 16:30 usa open candle was bullish + it was test on HIGH VOLUME BAR HIGH.

2.Test got failed. Weakness has shown. They made UT and I got entry when they break low of this candle. More weakness but they went up ?

3. I entry long because I got signal on m5 two shakeouts and test.

4. Strength in background so longs? Why not. They made test and I got entry. They went down.

Share your comments below

What should I do.
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Daytrader
Quoting trezo
{quote} 1. I took short because first candle 16:30 (usa open) was bullish, they quickly extinguished it. I recognized it as weakness. Then they made ND on resistance and HIGHEST VOLUME BAR LOW, and I took shorts when they broke ND low. Also my trend indicators (these from tg as HG and Paul sent) and SMA was for short. Thats my opinion, whats yours? 2.Background was strong on m5,m15 thats why I took longs, and you are asking about confirmation. I just took it because background was strong, uptrend etc. and got shakeout there on m5 or m15. 1. I have...
I shall add to what Paulscaff1 has said. Like I said earlier, no current price action will erase background indication. In addition to the fact that M5 and M15 were in an uptrend thus ruling out shorts, the no-demand you took failed because it was not confirmed. You did not wait for a downbar. The next bar after the no-demand was a spring followed by test. The next bar after the test was a confirming upbar of the test. The strength was glaring. You had a classic vsa buy trade but just that you missed the earlier indications of strength. I have labeled the indications on your one minute chart.

To answer your first question, if you have weakness in the background (upthrust or bearish reversal top and a downtrend or mushroom top) which is followed by an entry setup such as a no-demand, and it is confirmed by a downbar on the next bar or two, I wouldn't wait for the break of the low of the no-demand depending on the downbar. If it is not a significant average spread downbar I would wait for a further confirmation downbar...average spread downbar would do in my opinion. Bonus is when you get a downbar that engulfs a no-demand bar. That would be perfect, but then, perfect trades do not always come our way as we desire.

As regards your second question, I wouldn't dwell much on where a no-demand or no-supply should appear. The more important thing is to trade according to trend and background. For example, you see a no-demand bar immediately followed by an upthrust bar (bull candle) with the next bar down where the high of the upthrust tested the low of trigger bar...that is a high probability sell even when the no-demand made a higher high and higher low. There are people who prefer that the no-demand make a lower high. My take on this is that context is extremely important to recognise the unfolding story of the market otherwise you would miss it or, worse, misinterpret it and go the opposite direction of the market's true direction.
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Fred
Quoting trezo
Today on - 1. Took longs because there was a test, with earlier strong bullish candle, and 16:30 usa open candle was bullish + it was test on HIGH VOLUME BAR HIGH. 2.Test got failed. Weakness has shown. They made UT and I got entry when they break low of this candle. More weakness but they went up ? 3. I entry long because I got signal on m5 two shakeouts and test. 4. Strength in background so longs? Why not. They made test and I got entry. They went down. Share your comments below What should I do. {image}
Trezo, I recall HiddenGap telling you to have a 5 minutes chart for trend analysis so as to trade the 1 minute chart. You cannot just dwell on a particular timeframe, especially the 1 minute chart, without knowing what the bigger picture is saying. Mixed signals will abound resulting in losing trades or trades with mixed results or making one or two trades from luck (an unjustified win). Particularly, the short you took labeled 4 did not meet your entry requirements. Haphazard trading is cancerous to one's equity.
Fred
Quoting Chronus
{quote} Trezo, I recall HiddenGap telling you to have a 5 minutes chart for trend analysis so as to trade the 1 minute chart. You cannot just dwell on a particular timeframe, especially the 1 minute chart, without knowing what the bigger picture is saying. Mixed signals will abound resulting in losing trades or trades with mixed results or making one or two trades from luck (an unjustified win). Particularly, the short you took labeled 4 did not meet your entry requirements. Haphazard trading is cancerous to one's equity.
4 labeled is long mate
Daytrader
Would anyone mind if I start posting some forext trades here? I am wide open for critique and suggestions as I go along.

Backstory -
Started trading in 2016 (stocks) - did not enjoy it
Took 2017 off completely
2018 started messing around with forex
2019 started trading seriously with forex did "ok" - mostly break even to small losses
2020/2021 Found this thread and consumed everything I could on VSA
Started profiting using VSA
For some stupid reason decided I would trade futures because - I guess its cool
2021 gets said a$$$ handed to me while trading futures (I did have several green months and some good ones too but in the end - I always find myself wanting to trade forex)
NOW - ready to roll again with forex using VSA as my baseline principle and a couple moving averages to keep me from being completely stupid.

If that sounds interesting - I will gladly share my charts when I take trades.
I use trading view because I like their forex volume and they have HLC bars (my broker does not so I will place the orders with my broker but only use Trading View)
Ever since I have discovered VSA I cannot look at anything else than HLC bars. They just make so much sense and lack the noise (for me) in candles

Thanks
-B
-B
Quoting trezo
{quote} 4 labeled is long mate
Pardon the erroneous label there. Followed the image thinking you sold. VSA is not about seeing an entry setup and taking it while hoping it magically goes into profit....Malcolmb, one of the vsa masters here, used to say VSA is action and reaction.
Fred
Quoting kicktothehea
Would anyone mind if I start posting some forext trades here? I am wide open for critique and suggestions as I go along. Backstory - Started trading in 2016 (stocks) - did not enjoy it Took 2017 off completely 2018 started messing around with forex 2019 started trading seriously with forex did "ok" - mostly break even to small losses 2020/2021 Found this thread and consumed everything I could on VSA Started profiting using VSA For some stupid reason decided I would trade futures because - I guess its cool 2021 gets said a$$$ handed to me...
You are welcome to post your trades. You can be certain that the needed suggestions and corrections will attend your posts. Personally, it is great to interact with vsa traders and this is one of the reasons I look forward to your trades.
Fred
Looking at AUD/NZD - 4H chart - looks like a selling climax (wide spread - UHV) with a no supply perhaps?

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-B
Quoting kicktothehea
Looking at AUD/NZD - 4H chart - looks like a selling climax (wide spread - UHV) with a no supply perhaps? {image}
The background is strength. That bar is more like buyers entering the market given the background strength. We see a selling climax after a sustained down move. The story is still unfolding... I won't fail to let you know I'm still a student of the markets. As such, I stand to be corrected in the light of contrary but better analysis...much happy to learn.
Fred
Quoting Chronus
{quote} The background is strength. That bar is more like buyers entering the market given the background strength. We see a selling climax after a sustained down move. The story is still unfolding... I won't fail to let you know I'm still a student of the markets. As such, I stand to be corrected in the light of contrary but better analysis...much happy to learn.
Yup - I phrased it poorly You seem Spot on

I see background strength with a wide spread bar down bar on UHV closing a smidge off its low with no follow through - a follow up small bar looks like buying there (low volume)
I am thinking taking the long from the top of the small bar to the previous days highs.
-B
Quoting kicktothehea
{quote} Yup - I phrased it poorly You seem Spot on I see background strength with a wide spread bar down bar on UHV closing a smidge off its low with no follow through - a follow up small bar looks like buying there (low volume) I am thinking taking the long from the top of the small bar to the previous days highs.
That is how I would play it if I traded that pair. Already, on the one hour chart there is a low volume test above the high of the trigger bar. I would seriously avoid shorts on this pair and be looking for longs as you are doing...
Fred
Quoting kicktothehea
{quote} Yup - I phrased it poorly You seem Spot on I see background strength with a wide spread bar down bar on UHV closing a smidge off its low with no follow through - a follow up small bar looks like buying there (low volume) I am thinking taking the long from the top of the small bar to the previous days highs.
I was thinking it looked like a trap-up move with the previous bar being up? Im gona guess weakness based on what I think I see .

.......just to be different
I will let you all know how it plays out. I got triggered in just above the bar. (2 mini lots)
-B
Quoting kicktothehea
I will let you all know how it plays out. I got triggered in just above the bar. (2 mini lots)
Nice one mate, I would probably be waiting till price broke the high or low of that bar to see what happens.

Hope it works out, will be interesting to see the result.
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