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Nordling's Legacy - Live Fundamental Trading

  • #181
  • Nov 16, 2021 5:13pm Nov 16, 2021 5:13pm
Hiya Nordling00! Really glad that we're all in the green on EUR/USD at the moment. Thanks to you especially also for guiding my fundamentals!

Currently, USD is incredibly strong right now because of the news and central bank policies. If you have free time, my question is: how do fundamental analysts gauge the impact of the news release and for how long price will be affected? Is this related to the business cycle?
Trying my best.
  • #182
  • Nov 16, 2021 5:55pm Nov 16, 2021 5:55pm
Quoting moondoggie
Hiya Nordling00! Really glad that we're all in the green on EUR/USD at the moment. Thanks to you especially also for guiding my fundamentals! Currently, USD is incredibly strong right now because of the news and central bank policies. If you have free time, my question is: how do fundamental analysts gauge the impact of the news release and for how long price will be affected? Is this related to the business cycle?
Hey buddy i am glad that you are in green Nice questions, if i am not mistaken this is your first months in Forex but you are going too fast. Bc you ask the right questions! You have a big potential buddy.

1. Gauging the impact of a news release and for how long price will be affected?

The news affect the price in 2 steps. First step is the immediate reaction, which generally affects the price by 1-3 ATR (Average True Range 200) and last 1 to 3 days depending on the data. Inflation, Unemployment, Growth numbers generally create around 1 ATR reaction in a day or two if the actual numbers were higher/lower than the forecast. Better or worse than expected Tapering, Interest Rate, Central Bank statements generally create an immediate reaction for 2-3 days and an ATR for each day.

Second step is the longer term affect. Which i like to trade. These numbers affect the currency until the next release. For example higher than forecasted Growth and Inflation numbers are good for the currency in the short term (1-3 days) but they will actually cause the currency to depreciate in the coming days and weeks.

For example when growth/inflation numbers came out higher than expected it is better to wait for price to go up in the first few days, and when the short term reaction is done then it's time to go short. Of course you gotta compare it with the other currency's inflation/growth numbers too.

2. Are these things related to the Business Cycle?

Yes exactly! Looking at the inflation, growth, unemployment and interest rates you need to be able to tell which cycle we are in and which cycle does the central bank want. This is easy yet crucial, this will also help you a lot with your real estate and stock investments. You will know when to invest in these things and when to sell.

During expansion cycle (like in pandemic when central banks stimulated the economy) inflation and growth will rise, unemployment will fall and stocks, real estate, gold will gain value while currency is depreciating.

We are in the peak now and almost in the start of the contraction cycle for US and UK.

During a contraction cycle interest rates will rise and currency will gain value while real estate, gold and stocks dip.

So to sum it up, business cycle gives you a bigger picture about what's going on. Focus on the news releases for Forex trading, focus on the business cycle for the investments.
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  • #183
  • Nov 17, 2021 2:44pm Nov 17, 2021 2:44pm
Quoting Nordling00
Just sold EUR/GBP. I should have done it last night but i was lazy to update my excel sheet. I need more discipline in my life. Anyways, sold it here: {image}
Took profits from that position:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EG.png Size: 33 KB
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  • #184
  • Nov 18, 2021 3:19am Nov 18, 2021 3:19am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Hey buddy i am glad that you are in green Nice questions, if i am not mistaken this is your first months in Forex but you are going too fast. Bc you ask the right questions! You have a big potential buddy. 1. Gauging the impact of a news release and for how long price will be affected? The news affect the price in 2 steps. First step is the immediate reaction, which generally affects the price by 1-3 ATR (Average True Range 200) and last 1 to 3 days depending on the data. Inflation, Unemployment, Growth...

Thanks a lot! My ex-girlfriend used to work in a bank, perhaps I'm just used to her language haha. But yes, I try to ask the right questions because I'm seeking the right answers.

Whoa, I wasn't expecting such a detailed answer! It's quite dense so I'll take some time in-between my work gigs to digest your answers bit by bit. For now, i'll read up on those things you mentioned. My biggest takeaway is that I need to progress further in my macroeconomics textbook For sure I'll encounter these topics in the coming chapters. Thanks for your time, Nordling!
Trying my best.
  • #185
  • Nov 18, 2021 3:44am Nov 18, 2021 3:44am
One quick question!

Do all countries react to their central banks policies the same way? For example, would JPY react to increased interest rates the same way USD may react to increased interest rates? Obviously there's much more that goes into a currency's price, but I'm just curious if some countries just work so differently that economic policies have an inverse or strange reaction.

EDIT: the covid discussions in the EUR/USD thread are becoming disheartening I'm thinking of migrating to the 'EUR/USD Only' thread because members there seem more disciplined.
Trying my best.
  • #186
  • Nov 18, 2021 3:54am Nov 18, 2021 3:54am
Quoting moondoggie
One quick question! Do all countries react to their central banks policies the same way? For example, would JPY react to increased interest rates the same way USD may react to increased interest rates? Obviously there's much more that goes into a currency's price, but I'm just curious if some countries just work so differently that economic policies have an inverse or strange reaction.
Yes, they all react the same way.
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  • #187
  • Nov 18, 2021 3:58am Nov 18, 2021 3:58am
Quoting moondoggie
EDIT: the covid discussions in the EUR/USD thread are becoming disheartening I'm thinking of migrating to the 'EUR/USD Only' thread because members there seem more disciplined.
Well, some people don't learn without trial and error. Sometimes the cost of trial and error can be your life though. We warned them and did our part, now every man for himself.
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  • #188
  • Nov 18, 2021 7:32am Nov 18, 2021 7:32am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily.png Size: 40 KB
  • #189
  • Nov 21, 2021 11:16pm Nov 21, 2021 11:16pm
Hiya Nordling! Hope you had a great weekend, mate I've got a few questions about the upcoming news this week if you've got the time: I see an upcoming USD news release called the "Treasury Currency Report". Its got "currency" in the name so I assume that this is incredibly important for FX traders For this report, why is foreign exchange manipulation/"intervention" by different countries monitored by the U.S. Treasury? Does this help policy makers make decisions? If so, what sort of decisions are made based on this report?
Trying my best.
  • #190
  • Nov 22, 2021 2:28am Nov 22, 2021 2:28am
Quoting moondoggie
Hiya Nordling! Hope you had a great weekend, mate I've got a few questions about the upcoming news this week if you've got the time: I see an upcoming USD news release called the "Treasury Currency Report". Its got "currency" in the name so I assume that this is incredibly important for FX traders For this report, why is foreign exchange manipulation/"intervention" by different countries monitored by the U.S. Treasury? Does this help policy makers make decisions? If so, what sort of decisions are made based on this report?
Hey mate! It's alright those reports are not that important. We don't trade based on that. Of course, good numbers and bad numbers coming out from that report affects the markets but it's no big deal. Important stuff are Inflation, GDP, Unemployment, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy and Meeting Minutes. News other than these are just noise.
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  • #191
  • Nov 23, 2021 10:10pm Nov 23, 2021 10:10pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Hey mate! It's alright those reports are not that important. We don't trade based on that. Of course, good numbers and bad numbers coming out from that report affects the markets but it's no big deal. Important stuff are Inflation, GDP, Unemployment, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy and Meeting Minutes. News other than these are just noise.

Okay, noted! Thanks for the heads-up. I see an upcoming FOMC Meeting Minutes release for later this week, so I think I'll wait for that.

For this week, I've been trying to stay away from trading... Price movement is strange this week, even for the JPY pairs that I'm used to trading. I suppose it's because of Thanksgiving week and all the news releases?
Trying my best.
  • #192
  • Nov 23, 2021 10:54pm Nov 23, 2021 10:54pm
Nordling, I just saw your myfxbook!! You're such a skilled trader, seriously. Really hoping that I can become as good as you one day. My day job is fulfilling emotionally, though a second income would make things easier on my heart and mind. Professional dancers just don't earn enough where I live... Anyway, I wanted to say thanks for taking the time to teach me a little, you've been incredibly helpful. I hope to learn a lot from you moving forward in my trading journey!

I'd share my own myfxbook, but I'm a little embarrassed at my trading performance. 200+ trades and only a 5% increase since I opened that account
Trying my best.
  • #193
  • Nov 24, 2021 12:38am Nov 24, 2021 12:38am
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} Okay, noted! Thanks for the heads-up. I see an upcoming FOMC Meeting Minutes release for later this week, so I think I'll wait for that. For this week, I've been trying to stay away from trading... Price movement is strange this week, even for the JPY pairs that I'm used to trading. I suppose it's because of Thanksgiving week and all the news releases?
Market is strange this week yes, probably it was waiting for the US GDP numbers, RBNZ rates and FOMC minutes like you said. I also took my profits just in case. Generally speaking, institutions take profits one or two days before these news. Of course that's not a rule some institutions do, some don't and wait for the news. Which i call "risk management". If they are okay with the risk and the possible outcomes they keep it open. If they are not okay with it, they chicken out like i did. I wasn't willing to take the risk bc i was already overleveraged and fulfilled with my profits
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  • #194
  • Nov 24, 2021 12:54am Nov 24, 2021 12:54am
Quoting moondoggie
Nordling, I just saw your myfxbook!! You're such a skilled trader, seriously. Really hoping that I can become as good as you one day. My day job is fulfilling emotionally, though a second income would make things easier on my heart and mind. Professional dancers just don't earn enough where I live... Anyway, I wanted to say thanks for taking the time to teach me a little, you've been incredibly helpful. I hope to learn a lot from you moving forward in my trading journey! I'd share my own myfxbook, but I'm a little embarrassed at...
Thank you for the kind words buddy, it means a lot!

Wow you have a great job! It must be fun. Have you ever worked with a celebrity on stage? Like Taylor Swift etc.?

5% return is awesome for someone who is doing this for only 2 months. I am trading over 3 years and i was consistently losing money on my first 2 years So you made a great start, don't worry. You are also learning quick. I lost so much time on useless stuff

Just keep going, keep asking and improving yourself. Believe me trading is not that hard, you can get consistently profitable in a year.
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  • #195
  • Edited Nov 26, 2021 1:07am Nov 25, 2021 6:13pm | Edited Nov 26, 2021 1:07am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Thank you for the kind words buddy, it means a lot! Wow you have a great job! It must be fun. Have you ever worked with a celebrity on stage? Like Taylor Swift etc.? 5% return is awesome for someone who is doing this for only 2 months. I am trading over 3 years and i was consistently losing money on my first 2 years So you made a great start, don't worry. You are also learning quick. I lost so much time on useless stuff Just keep going, keep asking and improving yourself. Believe me trading is not that hard, you can get consistently...
Ahh thanks a lot, my man. It's definitely fun, but jeez, I wish I could be on stage!! There's quite a lot of politics to make it, it can be very superficial and cutthroat. The closest I've come to fame was casually dancing with a Korean choreographer that works with a certain K-pop group, but that's all. Sometimes I prefer to work in the studio with artists though, not on stage.

Thanks also for your kind words. At the moment, a big part of me still feels like I'm gambling rather than trading. I'm working to eliminate this feeling so I can have more confidence in my positions. Strong confidence = less stress It's been a struggle, but what was once a mountain is now just a steep hill. Once I finish this season's recitals, I'll be digging more deeply into that macroeconomics textbook I downloaded.
Trying my best.
  • #196
  • Nov 26, 2021 12:54am Nov 26, 2021 12:54am
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} Ahh thanks a lot, my man. It's definitely fun, but jeez, I wish I could be on stage!! There's quite a lot of politics to make it, it can be very superficial and cutthroat. The closest I've come to fame was casually dancing with a Korean choreographer that works with a certain K-pop group, but that's all. I prefer to work in the studio with artists, not on stage. Thanks also for your kind words. At the moment, a big part of me still feels like I'm gambling rather than trading. I'm working to eliminate this feeling so I can have more confidence...
That steep hill will get even flatter and easier in time. Of course learning never ends, we will always have losing trades but winners will outnumber losers in the end.

I am still far away from my best version, but i am trying to be better than who i was yesterday, and it should be everyone's goal who wants to become his/her best version. We have 365 days in a year, if i learn at least one new thing in a day, i will be 365 days ahead of my old self. That's the motivation.

So to sum it up, you will get better and you will get more confident with your trades. I still feel like i am gambling too no joke. I feel a bit insecure when i open a new trade. I feel uncomfortable for a week or two. Trading is really demanding psychologically. When i was new to trading it all seemed fun and games. You make money doing nothing at home etc. but in time i understood why they need to stay at home or at least stay connected to their account anytime. It is risky, and it is always a burden in your mind which doesn't let you to concentrate on other things for too long. I hope this feeling will go away in time with experience though. I think it will go away.
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  • #197
  • Nov 26, 2021 7:26am Nov 26, 2021 7:26am
Risk off because of uncertainty, due to new variant COVID. Selling looks like may be short lived, for some currencies. EURUSD will continue to fall. Brent oil dropped to $79.37 per barrel. US crude dropped to $75.25 per barrel. Trade safe.
  • #198
  • Nov 28, 2021 1:38pm Nov 28, 2021 1:38pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} That steep hill will get even flatter and easier in time. Of course learning never ends, we will always have losing trades but winners will outnumber losers in the end. I am still far away from my best version, but i am trying to be better than who i was yesterday, and it should be everyone's goal who wants to become his/her best version. We have 365 days in a year, if i learn at least one new thing in a day, i will be 365 days ahead of my old self. That's the motivation. So to sum it up, you will get better and you will get more confident...
Absolutely, mate. Growth is a daily and conscious process. I say the same thing when I occasionally have to teach too. In the 6 months that I demo traded, I never once came close to the amount of stress that I felt in the past 2 months trading live. The psychological element nearly scared me out of trading after my first week, demo vs. live is no joke!! But regardless of what happens, I'm determined to learn more and more. This pandemic taught me that my body is my business as a dancer, and so if my body gets sick or injured, then I'm kind of screwed career-wise Learning another skill, especially one like this, would provide a bit of mental security in case I sprain an ankle or something.

Anyway, I think that your trading these past couple weeks is a really great example to learn from. Whatever the outcome, or regardless of your conviction, your trading decisions are mostly(?) well-informed. I hope we both become the traders we aspire to be
Trying my best.
  • #199
  • Nov 28, 2021 1:41pm Nov 28, 2021 1:41pm
Quoting Techanalyst
Risk off because of uncertainty, due to new variant COVID. Selling looks like may be short lived, for some currencies. EURUSD will continue to fall. Brent oil dropped to $79.37 per barrel. US crude dropped to $75.25 per barrel. Trade safe.
I was just about to mention something about that COVID variant in the EUR/USD thread. Then I realized where I was posting and regained my senses
Trying my best.
  • #200
  • Nov 28, 2021 1:46pm Nov 28, 2021 1:46pm
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} I was just about to mention something about that COVID variant in the EUR/USD thread. Then I realized where I was posting and regained my senses
Post, we are all free to post whatever you want to. Trade safe.
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