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It's Unreliable

  • #241
  • Edited 4:49am Nov 21, 2021 4:27am | Edited 4:49am
I have come to the conclusion that most people are delusional when it comes to their trading ability and the vast majority of people do not understand basic probability/risk management so even if they were given a profitable system unfortunately they would still lose money so they would decide to improve the system and turn it into a unprofitable system whilst being delusional about what they have done

In conclusion there are certain tools and patterns which give you an edge most people just unable to use them due to human error
  • #242
  • Edited 6:38am Nov 21, 2021 5:48am | Edited 6:38am
Quoting ryuryu
since forex has no difference is fees for limit orders and for market orders most traders are using market orders. But this suggests that forex does not need liquidity.
or there are so many participants that softwares match buyers/sellers in most cases quite stable. there are several levels - one within 1 broker, then between n brokers, then 1 liquidity provider then between n liquidity providers (big banks). All coordinated by software automatic.

Quoting ryuryu
That's why it is so hard to believe in all that magic tick data and same movements all over the world at the same time.
By the way - one of such software was made by billionaire and former US president candidate Bloomberg. Those are legit softwares which performs all this synchronization between n servers/brokers/banks etc

still I gues that there exists no more than 2-3 realy big ones supervisors which govern all this ecosystem. and maybe even only 1...

in level where we reside (regular people with not billions $) - life seems "real".. we play the game. We have fun. We fight for pips. And feel happy sometimes.

Quoting ryuryu
Because only limit orders and stops are real liquidity.
Those limit/stop orders can be closed before price reach them. Just fake orders to make an impression where "liquidity resides". When needed execute opposite market orders.

You can see statistics of TOP Darwinex traders where operate with several million $ investors capital - divergence no more than 0.3% (max allowed 1%) for most TOP traders.

Here example:

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Quote
Since market liquidity is finite, if a DARWIN starts to manage a higher volume of capital, the price traded in the market could worsen due to a lack of liquidity to fill the whole aggregated volume from investors at the price the order is sent.

liquidity in forex is limited. But with ~5 mil $ capital you have liquidity quite stable if trade major assets.
  • #243
  • Nov 21, 2021 7:02am Nov 21, 2021 7:02am
Quoting joyny
Just fake orders to make an impression where "liquidity resides". When needed execute opposite market orders.
You absolutely right. But to place fake limit order you need to have real equity for that. Even if you remove it or replace higher/lower that is the information you can use for your calculations. Then the picture is more clear. But on forex there are no such an information. The fee is equal so it remove a lot of orders because they are market now, and there are no real limit orders info at all.

But the question is not about that. Market is the place where buyers meet sellers. If on CME someone bought 350 lots of gold WHY the same size was immediately executed on forex, on every broker? Who bought it? I sold on forex for example. But who is the buyer? Who have I sold to?
I heard the fairy tale that there are bad brokers and good brokers. Good are exchanging volume data with each other. But hey so they exchange money? If someone win with one broker they will transfer money from loser of second broker? Bullshit. Never. So the game is that: since >80% traders lose, and every transaction has its fee payed, it doesn't matter what they do and doesn't matter if there were no real buyer or seller matched. All fake. There are always positive math expectation for broker so casino always win. So "lagging" (it is not) moving average is at least not the biggest problem here. That was my message.
Observer effect
  • #244
  • Nov 21, 2021 7:03am Nov 21, 2021 7:03am
Quoting joyny
{quote} US is nr1 (or nr2... after China if GDP adjusted by PPP) economy. No magic here. On strong US news move all $ pairs.
Hey Joyny, thanks for the reply

Yes, the news is the catalyst usually. But on this occasion there was no big US news or data released. And this is not the first time I have witnessed this
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #245
  • Nov 21, 2021 7:10am Nov 21, 2021 7:10am
Quoting Lest
{quote} Some people here live the life of a big traders. They know draw a graph full of nice colored lines, they teach everyone how the market works, they know how trade big players, but the fact is that they can't make a profitable trade.When someone tells them, they are irritated and offended. This thread is also about this.
this is a great post, 98% of the forumers are a fake trader.
  • #246
  • Nov 21, 2021 7:11am Nov 21, 2021 7:11am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} I imagine very nervous traders, jumping every second, looking for lagging moving average and for leading stochastic, with fingers on keyboards, watching the news and after 1 second after results received they start to BUY BUY BUY no matter how much, no matter what the price just BUY BUY BUY (or SEL SELL SELL), IMMEDIATELY!!! HURRYY!!! And of course another nervous trader with about the same money in the pocket hit the same button at the same time. And this happening suddenly all over the world at the same time. Everywhere people are clicking...
Yes, that could well be it... volume, just at that right moment, just by pure activity coincidence across US pairs, it would tip, causing people and all sorts of weird and wonderful algos to also follow. I guess this would also flip the DX, which could in turn maybe tip things like gold.

So, if that's the case, and again, keeping in the theme of this thread... in those coinciding situations, when everything pops at once purely because of volume, is a FOMO move reliable??? (kind of half serious here too)
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #247
  • Nov 21, 2021 7:17am Nov 21, 2021 7:17am
Quoting Konichiwhaat
{quote} Yes, that could well be it... volume, just at that right moment, just by pure activity coincidence across US pairs, it would tip, causing people and all sorts of weird and wonderful algos to also follow. I guess this would also flip the DX, which could in turn maybe tip things like gold. So, if that's the case, and again, keeping in the theme of this thread... in those coinciding situations, when everything pops at once purely because of volume, is a FOMO move reliable??? (kind of half serious...
My stats and RickM's too say that if volume is big and delta is green, and the main direction is up it is better to trade longs. And vice versa. So FOMO works well. On crypto FOMO works even better. Because there are no retired demo dreamers, there are real degen gamblers with real money
Observer effect
  • #248
  • Nov 21, 2021 8:20am Nov 21, 2021 8:20am
Quoting Ross88
...there are certain tools and patterns which give you an edge most people just unable to use them due to human error
Which tools and patterns are you referring to?
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #249
  • Nov 21, 2021 8:47am Nov 21, 2021 8:47am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} My stats and RickM's too say that if volume is big and delta is green, and the main direction is up it is better to trade longs. And vice versa. So FOMO works well. On crypto FOMO works even better. Because there are no retired demo dreamers, there are real degen gamblers with real money
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #250
  • Nov 21, 2021 8:57am Nov 21, 2021 8:57am
Quoting RickM
{quote} {image}
Show us how it's done. Start a journal. 100 trades. No scalping allowed.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #251
  • Nov 21, 2021 9:19am Nov 21, 2021 9:19am
One thing I find most annoying about this forum is people who talk in riddles. Just get to the point! You aren't helping anyone by talking in riddles.

If you think you have something of value to share, then share it in a clear and concise manner. Don't waste people's time by making comments bragging about how great you are as a trader.

If I see any bragging in this thread from this point forward, I will give it a thumbs down. Repeat braggers will be banned.

If you want to help people, then help people. But don't come in here bragging about your win rate if you aren't willing to show us how you play the game. It defeats the purpose of this thread.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #252
  • Nov 21, 2021 12:42pm Nov 21, 2021 12:42pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Show us how it's done. Start a journal. 100 trades. No scalping allowed.
May I ask why scalping wouldnt be allowed? I mean after spending a few years here on the factory, the only profitable traders i met are actually scalpers or at least make the most of their profits by scalping. Really few, but Rick is one of them. And i can tell you because i join them almost on a daily basis. Also, they employ different scalping strategies, but each of them is "the master of his domain".

Now, can you point me to a non-scalping profitable retail trader with some form of proof (excluding demo accounts), because I am really curious?

Cheers,
B
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #253
  • Edited 1:20pm Nov 21, 2021 1:01pm | Edited 1:20pm
Quoting bfx17
{quote} May I ask why scalping wouldnt be allowed? I mean after spending a few years here on the factory, the only profitable traders i met are actually scalpers or at least make the most of their profits by scalping. Really few, but Rick is one of them. And i can tell you because i join them almost on a daily basis. Also, they employ different scalping strategies, but each of them is "the master of his domain". Now, can you point me to a non-scalping profitable retail trader with some form of proof (excluding demo accounts), because I am really...
My thread. My rules.

As for scalping, it's easy to get in and out of trades quickly and claim to be a great trader. I am not impressed!

I doubt RickM's win rate is really 85%! Frankly, if he is going to brag about his win rate being 85% (even bragging by implication), then I believe he owes it to the people he is trying to impress to at least back up the claim in a practical manner. Has RickM done that? If not, why? As far as I can see, everything appears to be a mystery with RickM's extraordinary claims.

However, if you can achieve an 85% + win rate as a swing trader, or a trend trader, or even as a positional trader (trading the Forex market), then I am listening! Even something above 50% would be impressive. But scalping is not practical, as most traders would not have the time nor the means to implement such a strategy.

As for pointing you to a non-scalping profitable retail trader on here who has passed the 100 trade test, I am not aware of any. If you find one, let me know.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #254
  • Nov 21, 2021 1:02pm Nov 21, 2021 1:02pm
Quoting here2there
After much study of the Forex market, and the implementation of various strategies and indicators, I have come to the conclusion that most of what I have learned, and most of what is being taught, is unreliable. Moving average crosses, supply and demand zones, volume profile, tick volume, MACD, RSI, channel trading, Bollinger bands, sentiment trading, psychological levels, most candlestick patterns, etc..., all seem to be unreliable when it comes to having a substantial win rate resulting in good profits by the end of the year. The people marketing...
But you don't need a high win rate. I've been proving people wrong again and again on telegram, you could give me a demo account similar to this and in a month or two I will give you the same equity curve with a similar number of trades and risk appetite of 1-3 percent.
I also use an uncle point of 10 percent.
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  • #255
  • Edited 1:51pm Nov 21, 2021 1:30pm | Edited 1:51pm
Quoting zero00
{quote} But you don't need a high win rate. I've been proving people wrong again and again on telegram, you could give me a demo account similar to this and in a month or two I will give you the same equity curve with a similar number of trades and risk appetite of 1-3 percent. I also use an uncle point of 10 percent. {image}
You appear to be missing the point.

If your win rate is less than 50%, then something is wrong with your strategy. If you are ahead, then it's likely because you have a solid risk management methodology. In other words, a win rate less than 50% is no better than a coin toss in my opinion.

However, if you have a win rate above 50%, then you have apparently found an edge. If you are not ahead financially with a win rate above 50%, then that doesn't necessarily mean your strategy sucks, but rather that you likely have poor risk management.

By the way, I am not impressed with demo trading results. When you trade a live account with something to lose, emotions come into play that are rarely felt in demo trading. Such emotions, if not overcome, can greatly hinder a trader's success. It's very different when you go live.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #256
  • Edited 2:20pm Nov 21, 2021 1:31pm | Edited 2:20pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} My thread. My rules. As for scalping, it's easy to get in and out of trades quickly and claim to be a great trader. I am not impressed! And frankly, I doubt his win rate is really 85%! That said, if one is going to brag about his win rate being 85% (even bragging by implication), then I believe he owes it to the people he is trying to impress to at least back up the claim in a practical manner. Has RickM reasonably done that? If not, why? As far as I can see, everything appears to be a mystery with RickM's extraordinary claims. However,...
But that's not going to happen, every single trade has a 40-60 percent chance of going your way (quoted from Al brooks), there will always be a risk to reward balance on every trade. if you buy at the bottom of a downtrend it has a very low probability of reversing back up but the reward is really good and vice versa. you're not going to find someone who has an 85 percent chance of being right and making an unreasonable amount of money at the same time (should expect 30-40 percent a year with that win rate IMO)
as for time frames, there is absolutely no difference between a 15 seconds chart and a monthly chart, if someone gave you a chart without the labels you wouldn't be able to tell the time frame. but if someone thinks they don't have a psychological edge, it's better for them to stick to higher time frames.
  • #257
  • Nov 21, 2021 1:53pm Nov 21, 2021 1:53pm
Scalping is problematic to prove real profitability because it is not possible to track trades in real time. Scalping is the most used strategy for professional fraudsters.This does not mean that scalping cannot be profitable. One of the fraudsters GRINTA invest present their scams: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/eur...i/lupi/2296366
It would be necessary to define what is and what is not scalping. Is the 5min trade scalping? The trade lasting 5 minutes can be published in real time. My definition for scalping would be that it is a trade that we will not be able to publish in real time.
  • #258
  • Nov 21, 2021 1:55pm Nov 21, 2021 1:55pm
Quoting zero00
{quote} But you don't need a high win rate.
Yes, you do ...
Stat is a history, future is unknown...
You need to have all possible odds on your side.
  • #259
  • Nov 21, 2021 2:00pm Nov 21, 2021 2:00pm
Quoting here2there
One thing I find most annoying about this forum is people who talk in riddles. Just get to the point! You aren't helping anyone by talking in riddles. If you think you have something of value to share, then share it in a clear and concise manner. Don't waste people's time by making comments bragging about how great you are as a trader. If I see any bragging in this thread from this point forward, I will give it a thumbs down. Repeat braggers will be banned. If you want to help people, then help people. But don't come in here bragging about your...
In my work, I created technological and metrological procedures for some time. The riddles had no place there. Adequately qualified people had to achieve comparable results. Equally good or equally bad. If the results are different, the procedures are bad.
Please excuse the bad English via Google Translate.
  • #260
  • Nov 21, 2021 2:03pm Nov 21, 2021 2:03pm
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} Yes, you do ... Stat is a history, future is unknown... You need to have all possible odds on your side.
I would think that if a trader has a win rate of at least 55%, and a solid risk management methodology, then that trader is ahead of many if not most traders in the Forex market.

Furthermore, if a trader has mastery over his emotions, then that puts him even further ahead!

I am inclined to believe a trader's emotions play the biggest role in making or breaking his ability to succeed in this business.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
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