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It's Unreliable

  • #161
  • Edited 5:31pm Nov 18, 2021 5:20pm | Edited 5:31pm
Quoting Lest
{quote} I have no problem trading 1lot for $1K account with leverage 500. This is an individual matter depending on the strategy MM and RR. And it's about the courage without which you can't trade.
I see -- it's all about courage? Let me get this straight -- if it comes down to good MM or being courageous, your advice for struggling traders is to go with being courageous? Okey, dokey...
  • #162
  • Nov 18, 2021 5:38pm Nov 18, 2021 5:38pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} I see -- it's all about courage? Let me get this straight -- if it comes down to good MM or being courageous, your advice for struggling traders is to go with being courageous? Okey, dokey...
First you need to find a profitable strategy. Then you need the courage to use it.
  • #163
  • Nov 18, 2021 6:21pm Nov 18, 2021 6:21pm
I don't want to advise anyone, but sentences about rescue a bad strategy with good management are probably not what people are looking for here. That is all. I'm sorry, I'll be quiet.
  • #164
  • Nov 18, 2021 6:36pm Nov 18, 2021 6:36pm
Quoting Lest
I don't want to advise anyone, but sentences about rescue a bad strategy with good management are probably not what people are looking for here. That is all. I'm sorry, I'll be quiet.
@Lest -- if you are going to attribute a statement to me then, at least, have the courtesy to get it right. I wasn't encouraging you to use MM to rescue a bad strategy. Again -- here is my statement:
"Good money management can rescue a lousy strategy, but lousy money management will surely tank even the best strategy."

You can take it literally or figuratively -- either way, the point is that without wise money management you are toast, regardless your strategy.
  • #165
  • Nov 18, 2021 7:04pm Nov 18, 2021 7:04pm
This is my opinion. Since this is a thread based on stuff that is unreliable. News can be very unreliable. Sometimes you see news that is supposed to be good for a pair but the market is taking it in the other direction. Its like the market pays more attention to price action than the news. Another unreliable thing and is not really needed is market sentiment. Sometimes, you see majority of retail traders going long but the market is going short. Sometimes, I have it on my chart because I am curious what other traders are doing. Trading reversals can be unreliable but sometimes I do because it could be an opportunity. I just lower amount of money I place on the table.
  • #166
  • Nov 18, 2021 7:20pm Nov 18, 2021 7:20pm
Quoting Lest
{quote} First you need to find a profitable strategy. Then you need the courage to use it.
Sounds like you are gambling with a trade size so large. Still I am guilty of the same act occasionally when I see AAA+ setups and that would be my point on this matter.

My opinion is astute position sizing is more important even more so than smart money management.
When every thing you see on a chart is shouting Sell, you do need courage to trade large and trade aggressively.

The rewards favour the brave
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #167
  • Nov 18, 2021 7:24pm Nov 18, 2021 7:24pm
Quoting bento2019
...Another unreliable thing and is not really needed is market sentiment. Sometimes, you see majority of retail traders going long but the market is going short...
The idea is to do the opposite of the herd. If the majority of traders fail, then it would make sense to do the opposite of what the majority is doing. So you can now look at your sentiment indicator in a different way.

I know I am going to take some heat for this, but I think the Forex market is shady. I believe it is designed to make people lose money, just like a casino. In other words, I believe it is rigged.

And I don't want to hear anyone making any ignorant comments about it not being possible for manipulation to occur in the Forex market. It has already been proven that it can be manipulated. The proof is here.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #168
  • Nov 18, 2021 7:38pm Nov 18, 2021 7:38pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} The idea is to do the opposite of the herd. If the majority of traders fail, then it would make sense to do the opposite of what the majority is doing. So you can now look at your sentiment indicator in a different way. I know I am going to take some heat for this, but I think the Forex market is shady. I believe it is designed to make people lose money, just like a casino. In other words, I believe it is rigged. And I don't want to hear anyone making any ignorant comments about it not being possible for manipulation to occur in the...
That is exactly what I do. When they go short I am going long.
  • #169
  • Nov 18, 2021 7:50pm Nov 18, 2021 7:50pm
After reading the intro I wanna say here's my 2cents

Alot of what I'm now learning is more about my own psychology for real, not the info most people yak about. I was losing more than winning and needed to see why.

My view on reliable is it's the person. When I started i wanted to learn everything i could but now, I see that if the person is unhinged, it makes evrything 1000x times harder to learn and stay focused and motivated.

Coz I wanted to learn it too quick and wanted fast results.

But now I know it's about hunting more than evrything else. It's the person who delivers the outcomes not the stuff outside you. I think this is why some people do really well with an indicator but others do badly.

Some may see the reason as thinking analytical, but I'm not more that. I'm more creative and it brings heaps of challenges.

The other one I had a hard time learning, and still leaarn, is context.

I think this is causing most problems. Without it working well, we see what we're made to see or allowed to see and nothing else.

I know with me, I started most of my problems by refusing to admit I had a problem. I think trading is like that.

I can't show 50% but I can see now that sticking with one idea and being stubborn will make me lose all my money.

thanks for letting me share this.
I believe simple is best
  • #170
  • Nov 18, 2021 9:17pm Nov 18, 2021 9:17pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} The idea is to do the opposite of the herd. If the majority of traders fail, then it would make sense to do the opposite of what the majority is doing.
The idea should be to trade with the herd, because the herd is insanely profitable and does not fail. The herd never concerns itself with "unreliable", because the herd defines what is reliable. The herd you follow fails because it is already doing the opposite of the real herd. You are just trading with the wrong herd.
  • #171
  • Nov 18, 2021 9:23pm Nov 18, 2021 9:23pm
Quoting here2there
After much study of the Forex market, and the implementation of various strategies and indicators, I have come to the conclusion that most of what I have learned, and most of what is being taught, is unreliable. Moving average crosses, supply and demand zones, volume profile, tick volume, MACD, RSI, channel trading, Bollinger bands, sentiment trading, psychological levels, most candlestick patterns, etc..., all seem to be unreliable when it comes to having a substantial win rate resulting in good profits by the end of the year. The people marketing...
You shouldnt post such realizations out loud. Its bad for business.
  • #172
  • Nov 18, 2021 9:54pm Nov 18, 2021 9:54pm
Quoting ArnoldPike
After reading the intro I wanna say here's my 2cents Alot of what I'm now learning is more about my own psychology for real, not the info most people yak about. I was losing more than winning and needed to see why. My view on reliable is it's the person. When I started i wanted to learn everything i could but now, I see that if the person is unhinged, it makes evrything 1000x times harder to learn and stay focused and motivated. Coz I wanted to learn it too quick and wanted fast results. But now I know it's about hunting more than evrything else....
I agree with this.

I will also add sticking with one of two things for a long long time. Getting to know them well. That could be a specific FX pair, a certain indicator, what ever. Stick with that one thing, become familiar with it. Build up a deep mental memory of how your specific chosen "thing" works and behaves.

What is definitely unreliable, is always switching instruments and indicators after a few losses to try and find something that is reliable.

Stick with one or two things, study it hard, take some real money managed losses, feel that pain, and learn from it. As Arnold here mentioned, it is all about you, and how you perceive what is going on in your chosen discipline. Find your own triggers to trade and trade them. Once you have found that and it is working, ignore everything else.
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #173
  • Edited 12:22am Nov 19, 2021 12:05am | Edited 12:22am
I still watch what others do and I do the opposite but it's just part of what I'm watching.
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  • #174
  • Nov 19, 2021 2:40am Nov 19, 2021 2:40am
Quoting Lest
I still watch what others do and I do the opposite but it's just part of what I'm watching.{image}{image}
Not seem smart way. You should do market do. Traders are surfers. They can't go against wave but they can follow it...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #175
  • Nov 19, 2021 3:00am Nov 19, 2021 3:00am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} Not seem smart way. You should do market do. Traders are surfers. They can't go against wave but they can follow it...
I don't know if most go with the wave or against the wave, but I know that 90% go in the wrong direction and lose money. I'm not going with them.
  • #176
  • Nov 19, 2021 3:12am Nov 19, 2021 3:12am
Quoting Lest
{quote} I don't know if most go with the wave or against the wave, but I know that 90% go in the wrong direction and lose money. I'm not going with them.
People only follow price. But normally movements are so tricky. Then many look went wrong when really they only had bad timing. As many times trade is closed early for avoid DD then not allow to see a bigger picture of real movement and trade life
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #177
  • Nov 19, 2021 4:18am Nov 19, 2021 4:18am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} People only follow price. But normally movements are so tricky. Then many look went wrong when really they only had bad timing. As many times trade is closed early for avoid DD then not allow to see a bigger picture of real movement and trade life
See what the EURCHF I did here a moment ago did. 80% of bears just got SL. Do you still think I should have been with them?
  • #178
  • Nov 19, 2021 4:20am Nov 19, 2021 4:20am
EURCHF M15
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  • #179
  • Nov 19, 2021 4:43am Nov 19, 2021 4:43am
Quoting Lest
{quote} See what the EURCHF I did here a moment ago did. 80% of bears just got SL. Do you still think I should have been with them?
Question is where will be price later. In forex only a small quantity of trades can be considered bad/good. Majority will flip between profit/loss then its more about how optimal are these trades ( timing ). I tell you this because overall strategies get around 50% or more win ratio and are not very unbalanced in profit/loss trades avg. Then this behavior is most common.

Really this profit/loss trades avg is real reliability meter. And its partial linked to win ratio. In my test i carry huge trades loss but abs DD is 30% as peak but lower 20% in avg. But this only was first weeks. Now DD is only how much % of closed profit you are losing. And many of that big losers where recovered over time. I never saw recoverable ratio topic in MM discussions. Really some trading areas are not investigated or are abandoned because people didn't check them in deep way. It's just my opinion after make many analysis building systems
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #180
  • Nov 19, 2021 5:02am Nov 19, 2021 5:02am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} Question is where will be price later. In forex only a small quantity of trades can be considered bad/good. Majority will flip between profit/loss then its more about how optimal are these trades ( timing ). I tell you this because overall strategies get around 50% or more win ratio and are not very unbalanced in profit/loss trades avg. Then this behavior is most common. Really this profit/loss trades avg is real reliability meter. And its partial linked to win ratio. In my test i carry huge trades loss but abs DD is 30% as peak but lower...
...where will be price later? I do not know but it will be there where retail will have the most SL.
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