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It's Unreliable

  • #141
  • Edited 2:23am Nov 18, 2021 2:10am | Edited 2:23am
Quoting 9jatrader
{quote} That's how to trade the overbought and oversold. Price can be more bullish on Overbought as the GBPNZD running now and on oversold price can be more bearish
This is bullshit. Stochastic can show neither oversold nor overbought. Because it has no traded volume data in its formula
It is like moving average just showing data as oscillator! It is just average close price of X candles back! So if standard MA has no top or bottom (and even can be negative!) stochastic has 0-100 channel only.

Only on forex it is possible to trade for years and not find 5 minutes of time to figure out how the basic indicators work... Then they wonder why
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Observer effect
  • #142
  • Nov 18, 2021 7:29am Nov 18, 2021 7:29am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} I made a draft in a thread called stack MM. After a few evolutions, theory start to be something tangible. But my trading paradigm is very different to others. Current test is not about strategy. Its about MM. Really system running is a mid term loser ( less 55% win ratio ) but its stable in profit. Reason about this "weird" behavior is out of scope here.
I personally think that money management is MORE important than any technical analysis....JMHO
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #143
  • Nov 18, 2021 7:53am Nov 18, 2021 7:53am
Quoting fxsport
{quote} I personally think that money management is MORE important than any technical analysis....JMHO
I reached same opinion after a few years...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #144
  • Nov 18, 2021 10:37am Nov 18, 2021 10:37am
can be less that 50% win rate and still be profitable
  • #145
  • Nov 18, 2021 11:05am Nov 18, 2021 11:05am
Quoting Treeny
can be less that 50% win rate and still be profitable
That's an easy on - just take trades with a 3:1 R:R. With a win ratio of 40% you're still profitable (even AFTER fees and slipage)
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #146
  • Nov 18, 2021 11:27am Nov 18, 2021 11:27am
Quoting Treeny
can be less that 50% win rate and still be profitable
True, but that's not the point of the thread. If your win rate is less than 50%, then that means most of what you are doing is wrong, and you have apparently gotten lucky. If it's just luck, then what point is there in going through all the trouble of doing TA, and playing with indicators? Why not just flip a coin?
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #147
  • Nov 18, 2021 12:16pm Nov 18, 2021 12:16pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} True, but that's not the point of the thread. If your win rate is less than 50%, then that means most of what you are doing is wrong, and you have apparently gotten lucky. If it's just luck, then what point is there in going through all the trouble of doing TA, and playing with indicators? Why not just flip a coin?
What is the point here?
You not got a clue how to pick a strategy and build a suitable money management around it. You can flip a coin, or you can search the charts for patterns you will over see the place (and that is something that exists, i do not overflood it now with pictures. Search yourself if you can!). Markets working for so long time and the basic things not change. Do you think an auction will work in future not more? Do you think a car seller will given up selling cars and flip a coin, beside buyers come in shop? It is more as thinking that 50% trash. If you have had a better understanding of this, you would never start this thread.

Sorry i am out here. Good luck to defend the misleading stuff. Lights off.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #148
  • Nov 18, 2021 12:36pm Nov 18, 2021 12:36pm
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} What is the point here?... Sorry i am out here. Good luck to defend the misleading stuff. Lights off.
If you haven't gotten the point yet, then I can't help you. Yes, please leave. No need to apologize. Just go.

UPDATE: MichaelSch has put me on ignore. So I have done the same to him. Don't bother responding to him here, because he won't be able to respond to you in this thread.

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Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #149
  • Nov 18, 2021 12:51pm Nov 18, 2021 12:51pm
Quoting Treeny
can be less that 50% win rate and still be profitable
You always want to strive to have a good win rate but yes, management is the most important part of trading. Like I said a couple of weeks ago I was 40 percent win rate in scalping the 5 minute chart and was still 70 pips in the black.
  • #150
  • Nov 18, 2021 12:54pm Nov 18, 2021 12:54pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} True, but that's not the point of the thread. If your win rate is less than 50%, then that means most of what you are doing is wrong, and you have apparently gotten lucky. If it's just luck, then what point is there in going through all the trouble of doing TA, and playing with indicators? Why not just flip a coin?
You could flip a coin and still be profitable if your management is good and it is a science. I don't care what anyone says. Management is a science and the MOST IMPORTANT PART OF TRADING. Risk/ reward, proper stop loss, scaling your trades > TA. You can be 90 percent, (you will never reach this) and still be in the red if you don't have trade management skills. I am not saying that TA is useless because it is absolutely essential but management is much more important and no one talks about this. I think only VP really talks about this. I am not a NNFX trader but the money management section was amazing.
  • #151
  • Nov 18, 2021 1:12pm Nov 18, 2021 1:12pm
Quoting bento2019
{quote} You could flip a coin and still be profitable if your management is good and it is a science. I don't care what anyone says. Management is a science and the MOST IMPORTANT PART OF TRADING. Risk/ reward, proper stop loss, scaling your trades > TA. You can be 90 percent, (you will never reach this) and still be in the red if you don't have trade management skills. I am not saying that TA is useless because it is absolutely essential but management is much more important and no one talks about this. I think only VP really talks about this....
You get it!

I'm not sure what you mean by VP and NNFX?
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #152
  • Nov 18, 2021 3:48pm Nov 18, 2021 3:48pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} True, but that's not the point of the thread. If your win rate is less than 50%, then that means most of what you are doing is wrong, and you have apparently gotten lucky. If it's just luck, then what point is there in going through all the trouble of doing TA, and playing with indicators? Why not just flip a coin?
@here2there -- don't you think it's kind of funny -- not in the "haha" sense but in the ironic sense -- that the guys who complain most about misinformation are the same ones who are most guilty of spreading it?
  • #153
  • Nov 18, 2021 4:04pm Nov 18, 2021 4:04pm
And whoever mentioned the importance of money management I would give two thumbs up I would agree. Good money management can rescue a lousy strategy, but lousy money management will surely tank even the best strategy.

More verbiage from me to add to our library of misinformation...
  • #154
  • Nov 18, 2021 4:21pm Nov 18, 2021 4:21pm
Money management does not save a bad strategy. Money management is part of the strategy and cannot be separated. The strategy is profitable or loss-making. What everyone needs is a profitable strategy.
  • #155
  • Nov 18, 2021 4:28pm Nov 18, 2021 4:28pm
Quoting Lest
Money management does not save a bad strategy. Money management is part of the strategy and cannot be separated. The strategy is profitable or loss-making. What everyone needs is a profitable strategy.
If you are talking about my comment, I did say TA is essential part but without management, your trading will fail. I didn't separated anything. I don't think anyone did.
  • #156
  • Nov 18, 2021 4:33pm Nov 18, 2021 4:33pm
The claim that I will take any strategy and good MM and be profitable is nonsense. MM is an integral part of every strategy.
  • #157
  • Nov 18, 2021 4:44pm Nov 18, 2021 4:44pm
Quoting Lest
The claim that I will take any strategy and good MM and be profitable is nonsense. MM is an integral part of every strategy.
Who said that? No one said TA was not important.
  • #158
  • Nov 18, 2021 4:52pm Nov 18, 2021 4:52pm
Quoting bento2019
{quote} Who said that? No one said TA was not important.
robots4me: I would agree. Good money management can rescue a lousy strategy, but lousy money management will surely tank even the best strategy.
  • #159
  • Nov 18, 2021 4:56pm Nov 18, 2021 4:56pm
Quoting Lest
The claim that I will take any strategy and good MM and be profitable is nonsense. MM is an integral part of every strategy.
@Lest -- obviously you are not a native English speaker, so misunderstanding is understandable. I didn't say **ANY** strategy. I said that good MM could rescue **A** lousy strategy -- I've seen it and experienced it. In case you missed the point it was to emphasize the importance of MM.

As for your claim that "MM is an integral part of every strategy" -- that's overly simplistic. MM essentially refers to lot size, and since with every trade you need to specify a lot size then, yes, MM is integral to every trade. When people refer to "strategy" they usually mean the logic / rules / heuristics used to enter and exit trades. Let's say I have a $1K account but my trades are 1 lot -- pretty soon the account will be blown, even with good entries / exits. But if I trade 0.01 lots, then my chances are much better. Same strategy but different MM will determine whether I live to trade another day...
  • #160
  • Nov 18, 2021 5:19pm Nov 18, 2021 5:19pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @Lest -- obviously you are not a native English speaker, so misunderstanding is understandable. I didn't say **ANY** strategy. I said that good MM could rescue **A** lousy strategy -- I've seen it and experienced it. In case you missed the point it was to emphasize the importance of MM. As for your claim that "MM is an integral part of every strategy" -- that's overly simplistic. MM essentially refers to lot size, and since with every trade you need to specify a lot size then, yes, MM is integral to every trade. When people refer to "strategy"...
I have no problem trading 1lot for $1K account with leverage 500. This is an individual matter depending on the strategy MM and RR. And it's about the courage without which you can't trade.
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