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It's Unreliable

  • #81
  • Nov 15, 2021 5:10am Nov 15, 2021 5:10am
Rick are you trading FX on Futures to utilise accurate volume?
Examples would be much appreciated.
  • #82
  • Edited 8:48am Nov 15, 2021 8:13am | Edited 8:48am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Yes please
Hi Merka

This was the high after New York open on Gold. I took a few longs on the way up but profited before the top as it paid enough. The money trade was to Sell when the imbalance flipped to Bid imbalance which I took with a large size trade.
Trade lasted 15 seconds and provided half of my Monday trading profits - I meant isn't it obvious.

Exhaustion event, strong flipping of imbalance, extreme bearish delta.

Odds of winning was 98% at worst.
I took this trade with Halis, ryuryu who was asleep at the wheel took the buy when it bounced at the bottom.


Overall, Volume is in essence the fart bellowing out of a fat big trader's arse as he moves the market in a new direction.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #83
  • Edited 11:59am Nov 15, 2021 11:17am | Edited 11:59am
Quoting RickM
I took this trade with Halis, ryuryu who was asleep at the wheel took the buy when it bounced at the bottom. Overall, Volume is in essence the fart bellowing out of a fat big trader's arse as he moves the market in a new direction. {image}


Yeah, and this resulted that I had to use 2 orders to get out. That was not a big mistake, because the main trend is up and I just don't have "sell" button. But I don't have good orderbook indicator and I don't see the walls like you do and that was my mistake. Also there were no good delta (but huge volume). So I was in hurry (should open the trade after it bounced back from 50 EMA - white dots).

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That's why volume data is all we need! With no such a data it is barely impossible to scalp with high win rate.

Btw I had a conversation with guys from clusterdelta (they provide indicators), and asked them to create orderbook indicator for mt4/5. Now I'm waiting for the version to test and then I'll tell you guys how to get it. It will be very good and helpful!
Observer effect
  • #84
  • Nov 15, 2021 4:49pm Nov 15, 2021 4:49pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Merka This was the high after New York open on Gold. I took a few longs on the way up but profited before the top as it paid enough. The money trade was to Sell when the imbalance flipped to Bid imbalance which I took with a large size trade. Trade lasted 15 seconds and provided half of my Monday trading profits - I meant isn't it obvious. Exhaustion event, strong flipping of imbalance, extreme bearish delta. Odds of winning was 98% at worst. I took this trade with Halis, ryuryu who was asleep at the wheel took the buy when it bounced...
RickM the volume king
Thanks
  • #86
  • Nov 15, 2021 9:20pm Nov 15, 2021 9:20pm
This is a good thread, thanks for starting this Here 2 there!

My 2 cents... after only a few years of trading now, I'm starting to believe more and more that a R:R of always 1:1 is the better option if you have a strategy that's working and probable. I trade price action, simple support and resistance, daily highs and lows, head and shoulders patterns, stuff like that, and even when it looks like price could travel further, there is really never any guarantee that it will, as we just don't know who the market participants are at any one time, right?

Therefore, taking a smaller win and compounding over time seems to be more effective that trying for 2:1s, 4:1, ect, even if it looks like it could go higher or lower.

That's my thoughts at my stage in my trading journey. Anyone agree this is a good way forward, or have another opinion?
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #87
  • Nov 15, 2021 10:09pm Nov 15, 2021 10:09pm
Good to know that you want to have a good discussion and are actively policing your thread.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #88
  • Edited 1:56am Nov 16, 2021 12:27am | Edited 1:56am
Quoting Winston Reed
Win rate by itself will not result in a profitable method. R:R must also be factored in. Some interesting scenarios below: Win rate 50% with 1:1 R:R per trade. Trader risks 10 pips to gain 10 pips per trade.
Bullshit. In this example you will have huge loss. Because of spread, fees, swap, slippage. RR 1:1 is NOT 50% winrate. Never.

But why I'm surprised?
Attached Image


This is correct math (not your wonderland retired tired demo serious face math)

With 1 lot size:

Trade 1 win +10 pips - 5.5 fee = +4.5$
Trade 2 loss -10 pips and - 5.5 fee = -15.5$
Net -11.5$ after 2 trades.

Pretty big difference, huh?
Observer effect
  • #89
  • Nov 16, 2021 1:11am Nov 16, 2021 1:11am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Bullshit. In this example you will have huge loss. Because of spread, fees, swap, slippage. RR 1:1 is NOT 50% winrate. Never. But why I'm surprised? {image} This is correct math (not your wonderland retired tired demo serious face math) With 1 lot size: Trade 1 win +10 pips - 5.5 = +4.5$ Trade 2 loss -10 pips - 5.5 = -15.5$ Net -11.5$ after 2 trades. Pretty big difference, huh?
Your calculation makes only sense if you cut trade exact at 1:1. Why in the world i take trade out of run if no signs avaible that price make the opposite? Why in the world let my SL at place after price is given signs that price tend to go another direction?

This discussion is realy anoying and food for all who never managed to control risk/reward. So at that point a high win rate is something they hunt for. A good trader pick a strategy after his needs and build a suitable money management for it.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #90
  • Nov 16, 2021 1:53am Nov 16, 2021 1:53am
Quoting MichaelSch
Why in the world...
Because

Quoting MichaelSch
i take trade out of run if no signs avaible that price make the opposite?
This is magic and bullshit

Quoting MichaelSch
after price is given signs that price tend to go another direction?
This is magic and bullshit

Quoting MichaelSch
for all who never managed to control risk/reward
Who can't say how much 2 plus 2 is

Quoting MichaelSch
A good trader pick a strategy after his needs and build a suitable money management for it.
A good trader must know basic math first.

That's why "It's unreliable". Because 99.99% are "retired demo traders" who even cannot open simple excel to check how the things works. But they for sure can post with serious face a lot of bullshit how we should trade.
Observer effect
  • #91
  • Nov 16, 2021 3:27am Nov 16, 2021 3:27am
I think most of the traders fail to recognize that indicators or any other trading tool is like a helping hand. We can’t rely on one system to yield us positive results. If there were one system with a high expectancy rate, our quest to find a perfect strategy, a perfect tool, a perfect whatsoever would have ended. There’s no one indicator that is 100% viable. That's why we need to combine different indicators to give us a bit stronger indication.
  • #92
  • Edited 7:22am Nov 16, 2021 6:55am | Edited 7:22am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Because {quote} This is magic and bullshit {quote} This is magic and bullshit {quote} Who can't say how much 2 plus 2 is {quote} A good trader must know basic math first. That's why "It's unreliable". Because 99.99% are "retired demo traders" who even cannot open simple excel to check how the things works. But they for sure can post with serious face a lot of bullshit how we should trade.
Seems you not got it? If i sell a car and have the option to sell more as this, why i cut selling cars if enough are interestet in buying cars?
If i sell cars and i see that car is much terrible and i am sitting around and noone want it buy. Yes i sit further and watch how the costs for sitting this out will blow a good amount of money?

Keep on dreaming all the garbage.

But a hint and it is way simple and without any compounding and other.

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Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #93
  • Nov 16, 2021 8:14am Nov 16, 2021 8:14am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Bullshit. In this example you will have huge loss. Because of spread, fees, swap, slippage. RR 1:1 is NOT 50% winrate. Never. But why I'm surprised? {image} This is correct math (not your wonderland retired tired demo serious face math) With 1 lot size: Trade 1 win +10 pips - 5.5 fee = +4.5$ Trade 2 loss -10 pips and - 5.5 fee = -15.5$ Net -11.5$ after 2 trades. Pretty big difference, huh?
Let's keep it civil. Tackle ideas you have issues with, not the people behind the ideas.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #94
  • Nov 16, 2021 8:42am Nov 16, 2021 8:42am
Quoting RickM
{quote} We don’t need to care about long term intentions, what’s the point when you can make good profits every day and sleep while out of the market. It’s the best way to secure a wage if you need one. By the way, volume often does show us clear bottoms and tops, I can show you some if you like. Cheers
Please do...
  • #95
  • Edited 9:07am Nov 16, 2021 8:57am | Edited 9:07am
Quoting here2there
{quote} Let's keep it civil. Tackle ideas you have issues with, not the people behind the ideas.
Civil is at least not to provide wrong math. If these pseudo traders do not respect their interlocutors, why should we read this nonsense year after year? Are you not tired of this pseudo-scientific nonsense, magic, unrealizable expectations and beliefs?

Anyway, sorry that hurt your feelings

Green days for everyone!

Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} Seems you not got it?
Got what? Guy said that 10 pip profit and 10 pip loss = 0 in sum, or 10 profit, or 10 loss.
I said that this is bullshit. In this case there will be or 4.5 profit, or 15.5 loss. And this is NOT 1:1 RR at all. It is 344% difference!!!
He has provided totally wrong math. Same bullshit like Aussie's 150+ lots trades.
But if you wish you can proceed reading that nonsense. Or you can warm your excel up and check the things yourself.
Observer effect
  • #96
  • Nov 16, 2021 9:10am Nov 16, 2021 9:10am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} Your calculation makes only sense if you cut trade exact at 1:1. Why in the world i take trade out of run if no signs avaible that price make the opposite? Why in the world let my SL at place after price is given signs that price tend to go another direction? This discussion is realy anoying and food for all who never managed to control risk/reward. So at that point a high win rate is something they hunt for. A good trader pick a strategy after his needs and build a suitable money management for it.
I have never met you, so hello.

This is a pertinent post in my opinion. Soft targets and hard stops are the rule in trading. If the trader is in a trend, then they should hold and add until given a clear reason not to. Stop losses are disaster stops and these should rarely be hit unless the trader is asleep at the wheel.

Thanks for adding content to a competent traders thread.

Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Civil is at least not to provide wrong math. If these pseudo traders do not respect their interlocutors, why should we read this nonsense year after year? Are you not tired of this pseudo-scientific nonsense, magic, unrealizable expectations and beliefs? Anyway, sorry that hurt your feelings Green days for everyone! {quote} Got what? Guy said that 10 pip profit and 10 pip loss = 0 in sum, or 10 profit, or 10 loss. I said that this is bullshit. In...
It is my understanding that you trade futures and other exchange regulated instruments.

While Winston and I will probably be shooting at each other here in the states, he is not wrong in proving his point. You are also not wrong in bringing out slippage and commission costs.

I would imagine a decent trader will calculate these things when projecting risk and reward, so the raw math is okay.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #97
  • Edited 1:34pm Nov 16, 2021 1:17pm | Edited 1:34pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Bullshit. In this example you will have huge loss. Because of spread, fees, swap, slippage. RR 1:1 is NOT 50% winrate. Never. But why I'm surprised? {image} This is correct math (not your wonderland retired tired demo serious face math) With 1 lot size: Trade 1 win +10 pips - 5.5 fee = +4.5$ Trade 2 loss -10 pips and - 5.5 fee = -15.5$ Net -11.5$ after 2 trades. Pretty big difference, huh?
This is too funny to ignore -- a 1-lot trade that wins 10 pips is worth $10 ??? Really???

Here we have the math moron attempting to teach others how to do addition and subtraction. @ryuryu -- okay, so you're off ***only*** by a factor of 10, maybe not such a big deal. But you're such a prick about correcting others...

It's winter and I'm returning to hibernation -- but this was too juicy to pass on.
  • #98
  • Nov 16, 2021 1:30pm Nov 16, 2021 1:30pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} This is too funny to ignore -- a 1-lot trade that wins 10 pips is worth $10 ??? Are you serious? And you're the idiot who lectures others about how to do math... Here we have the math moron attempting to teach others how to do addition and subtraction. What a joke... It's winter and I'm returning to hibernation -- but this was too juicy to pass on.
It would have been better to simply correct the error instead of attacking the person. Keep it civil.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #99
  • Nov 16, 2021 1:36pm Nov 16, 2021 1:36pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} It would have been better to simply correct the error instead of attacking the person. Keep it civil.
You're right -- but that would have been too civil of me, and civility is a two-way street. I was simply responding using the same tone of @ryuryu's post...

@here2there -- sorry for the interruption. As @jmn5611 has applauded you for policing your thread, so do I. I'm done...
  • #100
  • Nov 16, 2021 7:19pm Nov 16, 2021 7:19pm
Ok... now we have all got the small arguments out of the way about ratios, spread, R:R, and had a nice revision of some trading basics, can we get back to the thread topic?...

"What is reliable?"

What is reliable to you? Your strategy? Your risk management? Your "gut feeling" of a trade? Or a nice mix of all of the above?

Is it your instinct, or is it because you have traded that instrument for years and you know it well?

Also, could your reliable method be duplicated?

Cheers
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Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
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