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It's Unreliable

  • #41
  • Nov 13, 2021 10:12am Nov 13, 2021 10:12am
Most search for the secret, because do not work many on basic things. They calm in bad habbits and hope if a 50 plus system will help out with all the unfocusing.
Sorry if not able to manage account wise, trade with a good plan will also fail with a 80+ system. Dream castles you will find enough.

Beside this

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Have catch this here, without any material you can read here. Indicators are only for entertaining the mass.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #42
  • Nov 13, 2021 10:41am Nov 13, 2021 10:41am
Quoting RickM
{quote} What's missing from your list that the brokers won't give you? Why do the brokers tell us dirty lies that the markets have deep liquidity? Answer those two question correctly and you have find a trading edge.
what is the method to answer those 2 questions correctly?
  • #43
  • Nov 13, 2021 10:51am Nov 13, 2021 10:51am
Quoting Ieis5
{quote} what is the method to answer those 2 questions correctly?
real volume/footprint
  • #44
  • Nov 13, 2021 3:02pm Nov 13, 2021 3:02pm
Quoting Iamfx
Gday Don Very interested in your trading method but I was surprised at average monthly pips only around 50. You would have to have some serious lot sizes to make good money?
This is Dow e-mini futures trading. $5/pt. Contract sizes are 1 but I often addin 1 or 2 more contracts depending on how things go..

I have a specific daily, weekly and monthly goal that I shoot for and once that is reached I stop trading for that day, week, or month. This is why there is very little activity in May. I got the goal of 100% early... not expected until end of June.
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  • #45
  • Nov 13, 2021 5:27pm Nov 13, 2021 5:27pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} This is Dow e-mini futures trading. $5/pt. Contract sizes are 1 but I often addin 1 or 2 more contracts depending on how things go.. I have a specific daily, weekly and monthly goal that I shoot for and once that is reached I stop trading for that day, week, or month. This is why there is very little activity in May. I got the goal of 100% early... not expected until end of June.
100% / year?

Are you kidding me? That make no sense. If you fail you get 100% DD! Oh dear you have so cute avatar I thought you are a great trader...
Observer effect
  • #46
  • Nov 13, 2021 5:30pm Nov 13, 2021 5:30pm
Quoting ryuryu
100% / year? Are you kidding me? That make no sense. If you fail you get 100% DD! Oh dear
Perhaps I was misunderstood...I was referring to 100% return (ROI). I have never risked more than 1.5% of any given capital.
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  • #47
  • Nov 13, 2021 5:36pm Nov 13, 2021 5:36pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Perhaps I was misunderstood...I was referring to 100% return (ROI). I have never risked more than 1.5% of any given capital.
Got it!

(thinking out loud: 100% from 1.5% of given capital make even less sense...)
Observer effect
  • #48
  • Nov 13, 2021 7:02pm Nov 13, 2021 7:02pm
Quoting ryuryu
Got it! (thinking out loud: 100% from 1.5% of given capital make even less sense...)
I would assume that this should be obvious but I'll just throw it out there anyway. This 100% number is a cumulative goal that I was looking to achieve by June. It came early (with a little luck). Thus I took most of May off. If I did NOT reach that goal it doesn't mean I lose.it just means I fall short...I still make money, just not as much.

In addition, the 1,5% risk is on a per trade basis. So I risk 1.5% on a single trade and that trade nets 3% or 2.5% or whatever...any positive result is fine by me. When the cumulative result gets to 5% in a week...I stop trading and keep that gain at least until the next week. If I get a big gain on Monday...I get the rest of the week off...If I lose on Monday then I have to make back the loss and still gain my goal through out the rest of the week. This isn't complicated or hard to understand.

The bigger point is this: consistent gains, yes even small gains add up to large achievement over time. We all have losses... what matters is how much one loses when you lose and how much one gains when you win.

What should be obvious is that I win more often than I lose and I make more on each winner than I lose on each loser. Point of fact the cash ratio on my spreadsheet points this out. For every dollar I lose i make 14 back.

Does THAT make sense?
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  • #49
  • Nov 13, 2021 9:44pm Nov 13, 2021 9:44pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I would assume that this should be obvious but I'll just throw it out there anyway. This 100% number is a cumulative goal that I was looking to achieve by June. It came early (with a little luck). Thus I took most of May off. If I did NOT reach that goal it doesn't mean I lose.it just means I fall short...I still make money, just not as much. In addition, the 1,5% risk is on a per trade basis. So I risk 1.5% on a single trade and that trade nets 3% or 2.5% or whatever...any positive result is fine by me. When the cumulative result gets to...
if I understand correctly, your ratio is 14:1?
  • #50
  • Nov 13, 2021 9:59pm Nov 13, 2021 9:59pm
Quoting tiborf71
if I understand correctly, your ratio is 14:1?
Cash Ratio...yes. This is not the popular RRR (Risk-to-Reward) ratio...it is actual results taken by dividing Total Gains by Total Losses. It is always ongoing and tells actual results...not calculated probabilities...so yes what this number tells me is that (1) My total gains are greater than my total losses (ie. I make money), and (2) For every 1 dollar I lose, I make 14 dollars back. In other words I make more than 14 times my losses.

This is a metric I have only seen used by professionals that actually have to justify their results to clients. If this metric is 1 your trading is break even...nothing more. Anything greater than one indicates you are making money, and of course if this is fractional number you are losing. So we want to see a very high cash ratio to know one is making money. This combined with a very high win rate (80% in my case) means not only is the methodology profitable but it is has a very low volatility...it means the account balance doesn't swing wildly up and down...it is on a nice upward trend.
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  • #51
  • Nov 13, 2021 10:04pm Nov 13, 2021 10:04pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Cash Ratio...yes. This is not the popular RRR (Risk-to-Reward) ratio...it is actual results taken by dividing Total Gains by Total Losses. It is always ongoing and tells actual results...not calculated probabilities...so yes what this number tells me is that (1) My total gains are greater than my total losses (ie. I make money), and (2) For every 1 dollar I lose, I make 14 dollars back. In other words I make more than 14 times my losses. This is a metric I have only seen used by professionals that actually have to justify their results to...
OK.
and how high the DD is in general?
  • #52
  • Nov 13, 2021 10:08pm Nov 13, 2021 10:08pm
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} OK. and how high the DD is in general?
sorry, I didn't read your last post carefully because it contained the answer to my question.
  • #53
  • Nov 13, 2021 10:38pm Nov 13, 2021 10:38pm
What I've learnt is that you should not limit yourself to focus on specific metrics just because others are doing it. Do you own research and if you can code, collect as many data points as possible to validate claims yourself. It's a journey I have been on relentlessly for years. It helps that I have a background in Java and I could validate concepts fairly quickly now, but even if you can't code, you can still collect data points manually (yes, it will be painful). Indicators are not necessarily bad, but using them blindly is. Try to understand what each indicator means under the hood and understand the mechanics beyond the lines you see on the chart.

You can be profitable with a convergent strategy (High win rate, average win < average loss), and you can be profitable with a divergent strategy (Low win rate, average win > average loss). What I have found more palatable based on my own trading psychology is the former. But to each his own. From a portfolio standpoint, it never hurts to have both kinds of strategies to balance out the overall expectancy.

I trade only mechanically with algorithms that I build, so most important metric to me is long-term positive expectancy at a portfolio level.
  • #54
  • Nov 13, 2021 10:59pm Nov 13, 2021 10:59pm
Quoting carddard
What I've learnt is that you should not limit yourself to focus on specific metrics just because others are doing it. Do you own research and if you can code, collect as many data points as possible to validate claims yourself. It's a journey I have been on relentlessly for years. It helps that I have a background in Java and I could validate concepts fairly quickly now, but even if you can't code, you can still collect data points manually (yes, it will be painful). Indicators are not necessarily bad, but using them blindly is. Try to understand...
well, these numbers are very important to R / DD, the trader.
these numbers reveal everything.
whether the account can be maintained using the given strategy.
  • #55
  • Nov 13, 2021 11:55pm Nov 13, 2021 11:55pm
Quoting carddard
What I've learnt is that you should not limit yourself to focus on specific metrics just because others are doing it. ....
I'm afraid this has bogged down into an issue that few understand...one of metrics. This is NOT the question the originator of this thread was asking. I produced some metrics only to verify the voracity of my stance that math is NOT a useful tool for finding a winning methodology. I still believe and state categorically that trading based on the market structure of Time, Order flow, Volume, and Price is the basis of the methodology that is successful.

Metrics are just that...they measure your results. They are NOT the basis for a methodology but rather a mechanism to measure the results and then use that information to maximize those results. My method of entering and exiting has nothing to do with these results...they only show me how effective they are. In addition by measuring how close I can come to a actual turning point (on average about 12 pts), that allows me to (1) expose less of my account to risk and (2) utilize/maximize the opportunity presented by exiting in profit more often and realizing repeatable results. In effect...I do not analyze the market...I analyze myself and how I respond to the market.

My mentor used to say, "The losers watch the market, the winners watch the losers." My method of trading has nothing to do with "signals", or "averages", or "coding", or "indicators". I watch the order flow (in effect the losers), and how their volume affects the price. As I said above, this allows me to come in (on average) about 12 pts away from a turning point. Sometimes more,, sometimes less. This is not possible to code...it is just how the market with all its continuously changing participants works (true structure). It does not follow price patterns, or silly little lines, or cute butterflies, or bats...or any other mathematically derived "modernist art form" you wish to draw on your charts. It is simply the truth of how the markets work. And that is this:

Markets must have participants...Participants must engage using orders...Order must declare a size (volume). These things are constantly changing every second the market is open. These have an impact on price movement. Changes to any of these elements produces variations in price movements which produce signs and symptoms of either order flow dominance or order flow balance. These signs and symptoms when read effectively can produce opportunities for trading on literally a second by second basis. How I react to those changes is what need to be analyzed...not the changes themselves.

If I'm in a sail boat I don't need to measure the wind, I just need to adjust my sails to catch it.
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  • #56
  • Nov 14, 2021 12:04am Nov 14, 2021 12:04am
At the end of the day, a sustainable, profitable account is all that matters. There are many ways to skin a cat and it doesn't kill to keep an open mind. I'm happy to see that some in this forum have found success (or at least claim to have), and I continue to be pleasantly surprised that there is more than 1 way to stay profitable. For those who have found it, congratulations! For those who have not, don't give up.
  • #57
  • Nov 14, 2021 12:05am Nov 14, 2021 12:05am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} I'm afraid this has bogged down into an issue that few understand...one of metrics. This is NOT the question the originator of this thread was asking. I produced some metrics only to verify the voracity of my stance that math is NOT a useful tool for finding a winning methodology. I still believe and state categorically that trading based on the market structure of Time, Order flow, Volume, and Price is the basis of the methodology that is successful. Metrics are just that...they measure your results. They are NOT the basis for a methodology...
sounds like a good strategy. you don't have to worry about changing the basics.
  • #58
  • Nov 14, 2021 12:23am Nov 14, 2021 12:23am
Quoting carddard
At the end of the day, a sustainable, profitable account is all that matters. There are many ways to skin a cat and it doesn't kill to keep an open mind. I'm happy to see that some in this forum have found success (or at least claim to have), and I continue to be pleasantly surprised that there is more than 1 way to stay profitable. For those who have found it, congratulations! For those who have not, don't give up.
Well, yes.
there are very few profitable schemes for us retailers. but the point is that they exist.
  • #59
  • Nov 14, 2021 1:31am Nov 14, 2021 1:31am
Thread starter is just mad because he can't trade profitably, now he is asking others to prove they do so he can try use their system lol.

"I need to see your strategy in action" okay mate, what are you really doing on a forum asking to see peoples trading styles in action?

To see if it is money management that makes them money? Well it seems you already have this bias so, what is it you really want from this thread then?
?
  • #60
  • Nov 14, 2021 1:47am Nov 14, 2021 1:47am
Quoting HRTrading
Thread starter is just mad because he can't trade profitably, now he is asking others to prove they do so he can try use their system lol. "I need to see your strategy in action" okay mate, what are you really doing on a forum asking to see peoples trading styles in action? To see if it is money management that makes them money? Well it seems you already have this bias so, what is it you really want from this thread then?
personally, i only forum because i get bored during the trades.
meanwhile you can have good conversations and exchange ideas.
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