It's Unreliable | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

I think Oanda FXTrade is unreliable 507 replies

List of unreliable brokers (updated once a week) 50 replies

NordFX stop hunting, unreliable with quotes 4 replies

Unreliable demo server 8 replies

Attachments: It's Unreliable
Exit Attachments

It's Unreliable

  • #21
  • Nov 12, 2021 9:21pm Nov 12, 2021 9:21pm
Quoting Jaymantos
{quote} I find it funnily annoying to say it's good money management that is the ultimate game changer. What the hell exactly is money management anyway, that it magically turn negative odds into positive ones? The business of trading, i.e. placing bets, is dependant on having a positive win to loss ratio in the long run. (By win to loss I simply mean for this conversation win $ amount is bigger than loss amount, irrespective of your money management guidelines and strategy.) I'm not saying money management is not important but ultimately it is...
How a trader manages his position is the most important aspect of a trade.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #22
  • Nov 12, 2021 9:41pm Nov 12, 2021 9:41pm
Quoting here2there
After much study of the Forex market, and the implementation of various strategies and indicators, I have come to the conclusion that most of what I have learned, and most of what is being taught, is unreliable. Moving average crosses, supply and demand zones, volume profile, tick volume, MACD, RSI, channel trading, Bollinger bands, sentiment trading, psychological levels, most candlestick patterns, etc..., all seem to be unreliable when it comes to having a substantial win rate resulting in good profits by the end of the year. The people marketing...
Congrats, you got there quicker than most.

Price action is reliable.
Hard stops and soft targets are reliable.
Treating your losses like they cancerous to your account is reliable.
Adding to your positions is reliable.
Truly understanding that your edge is between your ears is reliable.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #23
  • Nov 12, 2021 10:15pm Nov 12, 2021 10:15pm
Here’s a list of trading unreliabilities:
- The precondition for system initiation is highly subjective.
- Some or all of the levels involved in the trade are predictive in nature.
- Discretionary decision is needed either on entry or exits or both.

NB: Please add to the list ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #24
  • Nov 13, 2021 1:01am Nov 13, 2021 1:01am
Gday Don
Very interested in your trading method but I was surprised at average monthly pips only around 50. You would have to have some serious lot sizes to make good money?
We are all One. Be present. Be the Observer
  • #25
  • Nov 13, 2021 1:18am Nov 13, 2021 1:18am
So whats reliable, can you guys share your thoughts?
Nothing to learn here
  • #26
  • Nov 13, 2021 2:22am Nov 13, 2021 2:22am
Quoting NoobM
So whats reliable, can you guys share your thoughts?
It should be the opposite of what were unreliable …
- Know exactly what kind of market behavior or condition to wait for before initiating a trade.
- All levels involved in a trade should be existing or calculated.
- Entry and exits should be planned ahead.

NB: Please add to the list … (see post #23)

“Knowing what doesn’t work is as valuable as knowing what does”
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #27
  • Nov 13, 2021 2:55am Nov 13, 2021 2:55am
Quoting here2there
After much study of the Forex market, and the implementation of various strategies and indicators, I have come to the conclusion that most of what I have learned, and most of what is being taught, is unreliable. Moving average crosses, supply and demand zones, volume profile, tick volume, MACD, RSI, channel trading, Bollinger bands, sentiment trading, psychological levels, most candlestick patterns, etc..., all seem to be unreliable when it comes to having a substantial win rate resulting in good profits by the end of the year. The people marketing...
The most unreliable thing is to "learn" from members who act like gurus, who pretend they know all and they are profitable without any form of proof. Just to be clear, screenshots or selective/doctored pictures of account statements, account statements without showing the floating loss, charts with successful trades in hindsight etc. DO NOT count as proof. Demo accounts also mean nothing, because they do not encompass emotions. The FF is full of this kind of crap, you can see it on the most popular threads, where the members "make" milions and milions on a regular basis. Yeah, sure...
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #28
  • Nov 13, 2021 3:14am Nov 13, 2021 3:14am
Quoting here2there
After much study of the Forex market, and the implementation of various strategies and indicators, I have come to the conclusion that most of what I have learned, and most of what is being taught, is unreliable. Moving average crosses, supply and demand zones, volume profile, tick volume, MACD, RSI, channel trading, Bollinger bands, sentiment trading, psychological levels, most candlestick patterns, etc..., all seem to be unreliable when it comes to having a substantial win rate resulting in good profits by the end of the year. The people marketing...
Do you mind to share how long have you been learning about trading? I am so sorry to hear you with that thoughts in mind.
I am sincerely wish you will find your way.

To answer your question, what is reliable. They are support and resistance, trend, and multi time frame analysis.
The 1st one is not easy, and it's not reasonable to expect this SnR will be able to be spotted that easily. Otherwise anyone can see.
The only thing that I can help here, don't stress out if you cannot find the SnR. Maybe you are in compression zones, an area somewhere prices move not creating structure but moving in a certain direction along with the trend.

The 2nd one, the one that I can help, don't treat it in a rigid manner. Treat it as a simply direction. The trend is something I am still trying to improve too.
What I can help, try to ask what are the things that construct the trendline. Sometimes we need to step back and ask ourselves, what actually this thing is.

The 3rd one, is the key to see the structure in the market. Confluence of SnR and trend from many time frames that helps us to convince that setup (condition) that we observed is potentially good. Only need to confirm it.

In trading, we are solving problem. So approach it with many questions to ourselves. Something simple enough to ask.
Say I am looking at the weekly candle. Is it rationale enough that I can explain a single weekly candle in a 5 daily candles? Maybe it's hard.
Ow, maybe I need to somehow stretch it with H4 candles to be able to see it better? Or maybe H1 candles, ow but it's too much somehow. Find your own preference. Or maybe something simple, ow I am looking at stock market which only have 8 trading hours, so 1 daily candle only 2 H4 candles. Then maybe 1 hour candles it's hard to explain 1 daily candle. Maybe I need M30 candles.
The message: treat it as problem solving. Step back, calm a bit, and ask more to ourselves.

Why ask to ourselves? Because even the most successful trader won't reveal 100% their approach. And it's not reasonable to ask and expect someone reveals everything. Makes sense it should be.

I am not an expert, but I am trying to bring you to a more positive thought so you can walk the rest of your journey in a better way.
Whether you make it or not, it's your own. Just as Steve Jobs mentioned long long years ago, the one who make it is the one crazy enough to handle all the pain in their journey because they simply love it.

Ow, my personal view regarding indicators or anything is simply concept or idea of someone else to solve the problem they see in this industry. I never treat it as marketing or something.
I also never have that thought that trading industry is tough one. It's the same as other industries. In any kind of life aspect, we only have top-x % people who are made it. The rest are simply OK, enough, or not good. The same we see in our classes when we are student back then. Nothing special on that, always like that everywhere.

Good luck, I think this is my last post in FF. Already deadly bored in forum.
  • #29
  • Edited 4:01am Nov 13, 2021 3:32am | Edited 4:01am
Quoting here2there
What then is reliable? Share your thoughts.
Stocks of solid companies like MSFT. You can rely on some stocks consistent growth.

See here MSFT so far:

Attached Image

Here read my thread it is intended for me when having hard times but i see it could bring you up maybe... keep focus on what is working and dont think so much why a lot of thinks is not working.

Here results how I trade MSFT by the dips. No indicators. Very simple.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: msft_results_now.png Size: 87 KB

Until CEO not changeg - you can rely on MSFT quite safe. Rely on yaho finance or finviz news regarding MSFT... just monitor CEO it is most important for any company. all the rest data is not important. Yes markets will react on sales results or disasters.. but with good CEO any company will raise from dip.

And oposite works also - you can rely that some company is weak (or weaker than others). For example IBM is total loser compared to MSFT. IBM allways have issues with top management.

There is one core problem with IBM and it is... money. This company was TOP1 in the world some decades ago. And it is hard to forget that maybe... those who owns IBM majority and decides regarding CEO think they made mistake again... current IBM CEO is not business man.. he is more scientist...

When ruler of company is advertised like this...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ibm_ceo.png Size: 11 KB

For me it is not impressive choice. You cant be excellent in everywhere... if you did a lot of reserach and pattents yes you are smart. But do you have abbilities to be CEO... dont think. Good CEOs are more like Steve Jobs or Mark Zuckerberg... they are treated with some.. how to say... "he steal FB" ... you understand? Good CEO is not allways good person or scientist...

And we see from history IBM constantly had issues with growth... it seems the owners of IBM cant find good CEO or does not know how to work with CEOs.. maybe do not give needed freedom for decisions making or something like that. Top management is most critical question of any company stocks.

Here IBM stock price:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ibm_stocks_flat.png Size: 68 KB

And here we see no split happened long time:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ibm_stocks_splits.png Size: 28 KB

So go SELL with IBM and BUY with MSFT - hedge. This works fine too.
  • #30
  • Nov 13, 2021 4:09am Nov 13, 2021 4:09am
When you see MSFT and IBM situation... just go SELL when daily (period 5 days) RSI>80 for IBM and go BUY when RSI MSFT < 20 for example. And keep opened - MSFT in +/- 2 months will beat IBM. You can use no indicators if hate them... use just % for example when IBM up 5% go SELL when MSFT down 5% go BUY. Does not matter. Calculate from history when to exit.. Maybe use additional buy when MSFT go down additional X% - good thing now cost cheaper so buy it more. No rocket science here.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: msft_ibm_hedge_results.png Size: 96 KB
  • #31
  • Nov 13, 2021 4:28am Nov 13, 2021 4:28am
Quoting here2there
After much study of the Forex market, and the implementation of various strategies and indicators, I have come to the conclusion that most of what I have learned, and most of what is being taught, is unreliable. Moving average crosses, supply and demand zones, volume profile, tick volume, MACD, RSI, channel trading, Bollinger bands, sentiment trading, psychological levels, most candlestick patterns, etc..., all seem to be unreliable when it comes to having a substantial win rate resulting in good profits by the end of the year. The people marketing...
Right answer is here.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...66#post1956866
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #32
  • Nov 13, 2021 5:39am Nov 13, 2021 5:39am
Quoting here2there
After much study of the Forex market, and the implementation of various strategies and indicators, I have come to the conclusion that most of what I have learned, and most of what is being taught, is unreliable. Moving average crosses, supply and demand zones, volume profile, tick volume, MACD, RSI, channel trading, Bollinger bands, sentiment trading, psychological levels, most candlestick patterns, etc..., all seem to be unreliable when it comes to having a substantial win rate resulting in good profits by the end of the year. The people marketing...

Hello here2there,
let me ask you since when did you practice trading?
Forgive me if I ask you but I've been there, with these doubts, in my early years (2). Maybe you're looking for something that doesn't exist, maybe you're trying to accelerate the times (I know, been there too).
I can only tell you that sooner or later the moment comes when you will "understand", in which you can put all the boxes of the "puzzle" together.


With the utmost respect, can I ask you if you ever tried to develop your own strategy?

Ciao.
  • #33
  • Nov 13, 2021 5:48am Nov 13, 2021 5:48am
Quoting simnz
{quote} Right answer is here. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...66#post1956866
This is the kind of BS i was talking about above. A red diamond without any type of proof of profitability provides a link of another red diamond having 41 posts in total. Which by the way has no record of profitability as well. This never ends...
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #34
  • Nov 13, 2021 5:52am Nov 13, 2021 5:52am
Gm all, I've been trading for about 10 years now, from what I've seen is that there is only 2 two ways to be profitable from trading and that is:

1. High win ratio but small risk reward ratio, BIG DRAWDOWNS (60%WR, RRR<1:1, 30%DD)

2. High risk reward ratio but small win ratio, decent drawdowns (30%-40%WR, RRR>2.5:1, 8%-13%DD)

NEVER SEEN a High win ratio and a High risk reward ratio COMBINED

This is not in general, its only the profitable traders I've seen so far (less than 5)

My preference is the second one, both are reliable, a low WR doesn't mean its not reliable

Assessing a system's reliability only from win rate alone is not sufficient, take the time to study about this

(my 2 cents only)

AG
SDTAG
  • #35
  • Nov 13, 2021 6:25am Nov 13, 2021 6:25am
i think a good system means a good win ratio + low DD.
  • #36
  • Nov 13, 2021 6:30am Nov 13, 2021 6:30am
Quoting tiborf71
i think a good system means a good win ratio + low DD.
and I think this should be considered by every trader before applying a system.
  • #37
  • Nov 13, 2021 6:38am Nov 13, 2021 6:38am
You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.
What is the worth of sure 50-100-300 pips? Will anyone sell signals for just 300$ if he/she knows if it's sure pips?
Everything mentioned at FF is piece of the game (even not piece), not the whole.
No one will give away the reliable method, but they may give hints nothing more.
Respect to them who solved the game
  • #38
  • Edited 7:12am Nov 13, 2021 6:41am | Edited 7:12am
Quoting here2there
After much study of the Forex market, and the implementation of various strategies and indicators, I have come to the conclusion that most of what I have learned, and most of what is being taught, is unreliable. Moving average crosses, supply and demand zones, volume profile, tick volume, MACD, RSI, channel trading, Bollinger bands, sentiment trading, psychological levels, most candlestick patterns, etc..., all seem to be unreliable when it comes to having a substantial win rate resulting in good profits by the end of the year. The people marketing...
Hi pal, in reply to your question I would say beginners make trading harder on themselves than it needs to be

From my own experience they use too big a size and get shook outta good trade easily. Took me years to figure something simple out. Banks scale in why can't we. So let me give an example .... imagine every man and his dog here is trading a £5 $5 lot. Now imagine that's a bank trading $500,000 they don't jump in with 500,000 in one go they break that up into 50k pieces. So why can't we do the same as retail.

So instead of jumping in balls deep with your $5 position you break it up into $1. So let's say your risk on your $5 position is 30pips your gonna lose $150 and get shaken out of a good trade.

So if you now go in with $1 your stop is 150pips for the same risk. Now obviously if price goes opposite to your direction by 1.5 X the ADR you get out. But even if your trade is upside down 50pips you can still add and still have less risk than going balls deep with $5

Sometimes you won't get all 5 positions, you might only get 2 or 3 etc but at least you reduced the risk.

Anyway to you, on the strategy. Channels work if you know how to apply them before the big move in direction. Also I use supply and demand zones and macd but admit it took fucking yrs to grasp it. Yrs

Also hanging man and inverted hammers are well worth studying but only 4hr tf and above. Ps, I'm not selling anything .

Everyone needs to drill down on something that makes sense to them and rinse repeat till it works. There's no right or wrong way to trade there are 1000s of ways all with their own merit. It's kinda like what's a good fit for you. I try keep my trade setups as simple as poss and try plan for a few days to a few weeks in advance.

But one things for sure it ain't easy to grasp
  • #39
  • Nov 13, 2021 7:43am Nov 13, 2021 7:43am
Quoting here2there
After much study of the Forex market, and the implementation of various strategies and indicators, I have come to the conclusion that most of what I have learned, and most of what is being taught, is unreliable. Moving average crosses, supply and demand zones, volume profile, tick volume, MACD, RSI, channel trading, Bollinger bands, sentiment trading, psychological levels, most candlestick patterns, etc..., all seem to be unreliable when it comes to having a substantial win rate resulting in good profits by the end of the year. The people marketing...
What's missing from your list that the brokers won't give you?
Why do the brokers tell us dirty lies that the markets have deep liquidity?

Answer those two question correctly and you have find a trading edge.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #40
  • Nov 13, 2021 9:20am Nov 13, 2021 9:20am
Quoting here2there
What then is reliable? Share your thoughts.
Practice, investments, research.

Let me guess, but 99.9% just want to get rich fast. They want to buy magic EA, magic signals or find magic strategy. But they don't want to practice, don't want to invest their time and money and don't want to do any research.

Then it is impossible to earn. It is like you practiced 3 times in boxing and then lose all your teeth in the first round. Because you were fighting vs professional. Same here. Look, 99.9% of "traders" here even don't understand the difference between moving average and stochastic and think that stoch show oversold areas. Dig deeper. It is impossible to win MotoGP if you see your bike for the first time.
Observer effect
0 traders viewing now