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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #1,721
  • Nov 13, 2006 5:38am Nov 13, 2006 5:38am
Quoting sogt725
Jacko / Wanda,

It would greatly help if u stop criticising others and intead post your own call signals on another thread JUST for 1 week. That is all. What's the reason u migrated from the FXCM forum?
Hi sogt725

Firstly, I apologise to any person who feels I have personally criticised them. (I have looked through all my posts and have not found one personal criticism).
However, if a person posts that they intend to sell their methodology and become a signal seller, then it is reasonable to evaluate that methology. Furthermore, if they make misleading statements on this Forum about that methodology, then we ALL have a responsibility to point it out so that others are not mislead as to the results of the method.

Secondly, I have already posted my trades "live" and "as they happened" on another forum for over six months. (DailyFX ONLY FOR PEOPLE IN LIVE TRADES-Jacko's Pleasure and Pain conversations). ALL trades for six months were live and verified by all other traders on the forum. If you wish to read the thread you will see that my trading was (and still is) very profitable.

Thirdly, I didn't "migrate" here. I don't post anywhere but here and the only reason I started posting here was that I was initially intrigued by itme's thread. (As you will recall, he stated that his student/mentor had a 90% success rate. So I was curious!!)
Then as I started to analyse his trades, I realised that his success rate was less than 20% (which dropped further over time to barely 10%) and it would be financially devastating to anyone who naively followed those trades.

Again, if anyone feels that I have criticised them personally, then I sincerely apologise.
  • #1,722
  • Nov 13, 2006 6:00am Nov 13, 2006 6:00am
Hi Itme,

I look you thread sometimes, even if I have a complete different way of trading.

What I think is that if you want to make it as a business in the future, then you should make a precise work and put for every trade you suggest also the result, so you and FF people can see what are the real results, and there will be no discussion if your work is good or not.

Maybe Im wrong but I have the impression that you always put only the positive results but never all the loss trades.

Selling signals is a nice job, but before you must clearly prove that you make lots of pips a months, along with posting positive and negative results, so to see the netto.

This is just my suggestion
  • #1,723
  • Nov 13, 2006 6:00am Nov 13, 2006 6:00am
Thanks for your comments, Jacko. I should point out that you are right - your comments have been generally couched in constructive terms and have focused on your opinion of what you think is going on in this thread. I admit that I am the main person who has made personal aspersions about another person - namely you. I did that regretfully but deliberately, because I felt it was my responsibility to alert other people to what they might otherwise not realise.

You - Jacko, are the only person who has made consistently false and misleading statements on this or any other forum on this website that I am aware of, not me. Your commitment to accuracy and truthfulness is either extremely low, or you are a very confused individual. I believe that you suffer from both afflictions. That is a personal comment, and follows up from a series of personal comments that I have, regrettably, chosen to make about you based on your somewhat extreme and offensive conduct on this thread. As I have said before, your comments have been consistently inaccurate, unsubstantiated, and seem to demonstrate either an extraordinary obtuseness, a willful dishonesty, a malicious intent to deceive and slander others, or a combination of all of the above.
  • #1,724
  • Edited 6:57am Nov 13, 2006 6:05am | Edited 6:57am
Dear Trucco, I am not selling anything to anyone, nor am I attempting to prove anything to anyone. If you don't like my thread, you are under no obligation to visit it. If you have a complaint or objection, then by all means express it. But as far as I'm concerned, the only problem is in the mind of Jacko, and possibly now you as well.

I made reference a few comments above to a wonderful signal service. If you want a signal service, there are dozens to chose from. Just do a search on any search engine. Many claim very high returns, and the cost is minimal. I never suggested that anyone employ my trading journal as a signal service - exactly to the contrary.

I have never made any representations about the performance of these experimental trade signals, at least not since the analysis which I did of my first 39 predictions. No one has ever challenged that analysis.

I constantly explain what I am doing, and only obtuse idiots, individuals with overactive imaginations, or malicious slanderers have any business reading anything into this thread other than what I constantly represent it to be - my own personal trading journal dedicated to scientific research.

Sometimes I draw attention to successful trade signals, and analyse them in various ways. I often also analyse the unsuccessful trade signals, and explain the reason for the loss. Numerically, losses are all identical - the loss would cause a diminution of capital in the amount of the risk factor - the percentage of capital put at risk at the inception of the trade. Numerically - successful trade predictions are all different, resulting in relatively large increases in capital. I evaluate them not in order to advertise the prowess of my experiments, but in order to assess the financial impact and find out what worked - once again - to further my research.

What I post here is primarily for my benefit. I also make special efforts to share some ideas that I think might be of value to others. Much of what I think and do is withheld because it wouldn't assist others to know about it.

Every trade signal is numbered so anyone who cares enough to evaluate the performance, for whatever reason, should have no trouble doing so. But I don't encourage anyone to bother wasting their time evaluating the performance of these experimental trade signals. Anyone who hasn't taken the time to properly evaluate the performance of my experiments should refrain from commenting. Any performance evaluation is irrelevant as far as I am concerned, since the trading system is in constant flux, so the study will not have any particular meaning, except to emphasise what I have been saying all along - don't trade these signals - they are only experiments.
  • #1,725
  • Nov 13, 2006 6:11am Nov 13, 2006 6:11am
I think its good time to buy Eur/Usd now, with 129.40 target.
fxtrada.com
  • #1,726
  • Edited 6:22am Nov 13, 2006 6:11am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting itme
Dear Trucco, I am not selling anything to anyone, nor am I attempting to prove anything to anyone. If you don't like my thread, you are under no obligation to visit it. I made reference a few comments above to a wonderful signal service. If you want a signal service, there are dozens to chose from. I have never made any representations about the performance of these experimental trade signals, at least not since the analysis which I did of my first 39 predictions. No one has ever challenged that analysis. I constantly explain what I am doing, and only obtuse idiots, individuals with overactive imaginations, or malicious slanderers have any busy reading anything into this thread more than I constantly represent it to be - my own personal trading journal dedicated to scientific research.


Hi Itme,

My intention was just to help..

Anyway, If you take in this way, this are your posts, not mine...:
Are you sure to remember correctly ?...

To answer your question, Im not looking to buy signals, i dont need at the moment


Quoting itme
Originally posted by itme (post 1306)

Depending on the results, I expect to implement this trading system (or a slightly modified and refined version), and make some money finally after all this work.

I am also planning to work with a team of people to develop a trading system and business plan to provide trading signals to people on a commercial basis.

Originally posted by itme (post 1316)

What we might do is pre-select who we make into millionaires. Only people in need, or people with good values. Then we will only make about 1,000 millionaires each year, to prevent our project from rocking the boat. The people could let us trade their accounts, so if their accounts got too large, we could set them free. We needn't provide a guarantee. No financial investments that offer the possibility of high returns are guaranteed to succeed.
  • #1,727
  • Edited 6:38am Nov 13, 2006 6:24am | Edited 6:38am
1) I started a trading journal.

2) I framed it as research - experiments with the object of trying to develop a successful trading system.

3) I constantly warned people not to trade the experimental trade signals.

4) I expressed the goal of hopefully developing a successful trading system one day which could be employed for various purposes - all lawful and ethical.

What exactly are you accusing me of?

If my partners and I ever launch a signal service, I assure you that it will be done in a highly professional and ethical way. I doubt that you would ever be able to connect that signal service with this thread. Furthermore, the trading system that signal service employs will almost certainly be drastically different from the trading system I am working on - as it will be the collaborative effort of several expert, experienced, highly trained and successful traders and be the result of a team research effort including extensive backtesting.

Repeating quotes that were already posted minutes earlier doesn't constitute a reasoned argument. Especially when you are quoting me. If you have a problem with something that I have stated at any point over the past six months, then explain your objection - don't just throw my own comments back at me as if they somehow substantiate some implied but unstated accusation.
  • #1,728
  • Edited 7:12am Nov 13, 2006 7:00am | Edited 7:12am
Agreed, Lifetime Trader, 1.2825 would have been an ideal time to enter EUR/USD in a buy position, and I concur with your target:

"I think its good time to buy Eur/Usd now, with 129.40 target."

There is a chance that EUR/USD will descend one more time though, to offer even a better entry price on an upwards trade. 1.2812 to 1.2822 are possible reversal values.

It may have been a viable low risk / high reward trade opportunity, but instead of spending my time evaluating it according to my system I've been bickering with dishonest detractors from my efforts to develop a successful trading methodology. I feel dirty and foolish, like I've been debating with the denizens of a place inhabited by lost souls. A principle of success that I must add to my protocol is to refrain from debates with dishonest, confused, bigotted, cynical, rancorous and malicious detractors.
  • #1,729
  • Nov 13, 2006 7:33am Nov 13, 2006 7:33am
Quoting itme
1) I started a trading journal.

2) I framed it as research - experiments with the object of trying to develop a successful trading system.

3) I constantly warned people not to trade the experimental trade signals.

4) I expressed the goal of hopefully developing a successful trading system one day which could be employed for various purposes - all lawful and ethical.

What exactly are you accusing me of?

If my partners and I ever launch a signal service, I assure you that it will be done in a highly professional and ethical way. I doubt that you would ever be able to connect that signal service with this thread. Furthermore, the trading system that signal service employs will almost certainly be drastically different from the trading system I am working on - as it will be the collaborative effort of several expert, experienced, highly trained and successful traders and be the result of a team research effort including extensive backtesting.

Repeating quotes that were already posted minutes earlier doesn't constitute a reasoned argument. Especially when you are quoting me. If you have a problem with something that I have stated at any point over the past six months, then explain your objection - don't just throw my own comments back at me as if they somehow substantiate some implied but unstated accusation.
Hi Itme,

I think you are taking it as an accuse.
I never meant to accuse you.
If you consider suggestions an accuse, I think you are hiding something...

Thanks
  • #1,730
  • Nov 13, 2006 7:37am Nov 13, 2006 7:37am
Hey trucco I thought you were a nice friendly guy, never seen this side of yours before.
fxtrada.com
  • #1,731
  • Nov 13, 2006 7:41am Nov 13, 2006 7:41am
Quoting lifetime_trader
Hey trucco I thought you were a nice friendly guy, never seen this side of yours before.

Hi lifetime_trader

What ?

I dont know what is happening with you guys today

Read again my post and you will see that Im a nice guy, unless I cant speak english...

I didnt accuse at all. I was just trying to help.

Itme called me 'idiot malicuius', when I was just giving my opinion
  • #1,732
  • Nov 13, 2006 7:46am Nov 13, 2006 7:46am
Quoting lifetime_trader
Hey trucco I thought you were a nice friendly guy, never seen this side of yours before.
If you look what i said I meant this :

As there are people keeping accusing Itme, and I saw that indeed he never puts loss trades and you never know what is the result of his 'experiment' or 'what ever' , I suggested to put the results of all trades, so nobody can 'accuse' or be 'malicius'. And especially if Itme wants to sell signals tomorrow (he wrote this, see hs posts), this is more needed as a marketing move.
I WAS ONLY HELPING...
I really dont understand how you read things.
  • #1,733
  • Nov 13, 2006 7:47am Nov 13, 2006 7:47am
I have read through these last posts, and I think that there is a language barrier going on here. Trucco is from Italy and I think has used english with unintended result. Like most languages, the delivery of words is often more important, then the words them selves. So How about we just stop here and move forward... No more arguement on this vein?

I know both Trucco and Itme and they both seem like fine people...

How about it guys?

thanks Scott
  • #1,734
  • Nov 13, 2006 7:51am Nov 13, 2006 7:51am
Quoting smjones
I have read through these last posts, and I think that there is a language barrier going on here. Trucco is from Italy and I think has used english with unintended result. Like most languages, the delivery of words is often more important, then the words them selves. So How about we just stop here and move forward... No more arguement on this vein?

I know both Trucco and Itme and they both seem like fine people...

How about it guys?

thanks Scott
fine for me
  • #1,735
  • Nov 13, 2006 7:55am Nov 13, 2006 7:55am
Quoting smjones
I have read through these last posts, and I think that there is a language barrier going on here. Trucco is from Italy and I think has used english with unintended result. Like most languages, the delivery of words is often more important, then the words them selves.
Maybe it's because Itme uses big words. Hell, I don't understand him sometimes.
  • #1,736
  • Edited 8:22am Nov 13, 2006 8:06am | Edited 8:22am
Trucco, I think you got caught in the crossfire between me and Jacko, and felt to be the target of accusations that don't fit your case. I also reacted to the perhaps mistaken implication I inferred from your comments that you were accusing me of intending to deceptively market trade signals in the near future, based on the results of this experimental trade journal. I have a scientific and mathematical background, and I assure you that if I ever market trade signals, the evidence for the previous performance of the system of trading they are based on will far surpass anything you have ever seen, and will relate strictly to the performance of the trading system that will be employed, and not to a random sequence of experimental trades.

I keep telling everyone exactly what I am doing, and then I do what I say I'm doing, but then I get accused of trying to convince people of something that I have always tried to dissuade people from believing. So I feel misunderstood and falsely accused of misrepresenting a non-existent trading system and a non-existent signal service. Thanks for your suggestions, but they unfortunately bolster the dangerous and false misconception that I am trying to convince people to trade my signals (why would I want to take on that responsibility, when there are dozens of proven, professional trade signal services out there already?) or to purchase a future signal service whose performance would be somehow related to these trade signals, neither of which I am doing, or intend to do.

I didn't accuse you, Trucco, of being anything. I just said that people who refuse to believe or accept what I have stated dozens and dozens of times since the very beginning of this thread, and repeated every single thread, namely that I am not presenting these trade signals as trade recommendations or a marketable service - are either obtuse, stubbornly cynical, or malicious. If you don't fulfil the criteria of someone who insists on refusing to believe me, and who doesn't insist that I am doing what I have never done or ever claimed to do, then you aren't someone who is being foolish, obtuse, stubborn or malicious.

You seem to be accusing me now of deceiving people by somehow hiding my losing trades and emphasising my winning trades. Yes - sometimes trades are lost that don't get an elaborate post mortem. The same goes for winning trades. I analyse both winning and losing trades when I have the time or if I see something worth commenting on. I don't have any obligation to analyse each and every trade or to summarise the results. You are welcome to do that if you want. You seem to be holding me to an arbitrary standard that no other trade journal is held to.

Hopefully we can lay this concept to rest here and live in peace and harmony, and not project nefarious motives into the hearts of our fellow men and women where none exist. If you think that there is some harm being done in this thread, then spell it out and suggest how that harm can be averted. I have no need to be here or to make these posts, and you have no need to read them if you don't like them. If you are trying to protect some innocent newbies who you think are being taken for a ride by me, then start a thread to warn them of the dangers of consulting my thread, and teach them what you think they need to learn.
  • #1,737
  • Nov 13, 2006 8:24am Nov 13, 2006 8:24am
Quoting itme
Trucco, I think you got caught in the crossfire between me and Jacko, and felt to be the target of accusations that don't fit your case. I also reacted to the perhaps mistaken implication I inferred from your comments that you were accusing me of intending to deceptively market trade signals in the near future, based on the results of this experimental trade journal. I have a scientific and mathematical background, and I assure you that if I ever market trade signals, the evidence for the previous performance of the system of trading they are based on will far surpass anything you have ever seen, and will relate strictly to the performance of the trading system that will be employed, and not to a random sequence of experimental trades.

I keep telling everyone exactly what I am doing, and then I do what I say I'm doing, but then I get accused of trying to convince people of something that I have always tried to dissuade people from believing. So I feel misunderstood and falsely accused of misrepresenting a non-existent trading system and a non-existent signal service. Thanks for your suggestions, but they unfortunately bolster the dangerous and false misconception that I am trying to convince people to trade my signals (why would I want to take on that responsibility, when there are dozens of proven, professional trade signal services out there already?) or to purchase a future signal service whose performance would be somehow related to these trade signals, neither of which I am doing, or intend to do.

I didn't accuse you, Trucco, of being anything. I just said that people who refuse to believe or accept what I have stated dozens and dozens of times since the very beginning of this thread, and repeated every single thread, namely that I am not presenting these trade signals as trade recommendations or a marketable service - are either obtuse, stubbornly cynical, or malicious. If you don't fulfil the criteria of someone who insists on refusing to believe me, and who doesn't insist that I am doing what I have never done or ever claimed to do, then you aren't someone who is being foolish, obtuse, stubborn or malicious.
Thanks. No problem for me Itme.

I would anyway say, as you mentioned about many professionals over there selling signals, that who sells signals is a person who doenst trade by himself and makes more money then any other trader by selling signals.

Maybe they dont trade for themself because they have fear, because its emotionally hard to see their money flying away, or just because is just eaiser to sell signals. But what ever is the reason is not enought to be good at trading if you miss the quality of the person able to risk and stay calm while trading.

Beside this there are the clients, which for a human 'defect' ,free signals on the internet are seen as invalid signals because are for free, and for this reason have no value for people, and when they pay and buy a signal, just because they buy it , they thing it worth and are valid.
I had a journal here for 2 weeks and I gave around 400 pips in 10 days, but nobody gave a replay or appreciated what I was doing, because it was for free...so I decided to stop, and let them go to buy signals if they really believe can be better.

So if this is an experiment for you , and people will only take it as a free no value staff, keep this for you, otherwise just ignore any critics and go ahead with you postings.

All this is not about you , is just to make people think about why things have value for them only if they have to pay .
  • #1,738
  • Nov 13, 2006 8:26am Nov 13, 2006 8:26am
Sorry, nothing to do now with our topic

pound keeps going down because there are some uk banks pushing to hit stops..
nice guys over there..
  • #1,739
  • Nov 13, 2006 10:09am Nov 13, 2006 10:09am
Quoting lifetime_trader
I think its good time to buy Eur/Usd now, with 129.40 target.
Hi,

hope I am not going to catch flak for this, but as EURUSD and USDCHF both made pro-dollar pin bars on Friday and since James has repeatedly said that price action can be combined successfully with any system really, I recommend you check out at least some of the most basic stuff to further enhance the low risk high reward entries. (for example there was a great inside bar in GBPUSD before it went down which would have lent itself to a 20-25 pip stop and as of now > 100 pips profit).
Don't want to interrupt or anything, just wanted to point out something that might help the system even if it's "foreign" to it.

The public thread on James' Price Action is over here.

There's also a real nice PDF compiled on pin bars alone(PA is much more than just this) and findable via a search, I think jotty posted them again in a thread.

Personally I had the 1.2797 area pencilled in as a potential support zone for EURUSD in the short term and a few more below it.

Don't want to post too much of my view, I already have a thread for that, just trying to help with the mention of the PA things for incorporation into an already not bad system (at least EURUSD and USDCHF zones of resistance and support - as in reversal points - lately seemed to match well with what I saw here, too).

Also - don't know if I have the right to even say this, but - I'd just simply not argue with people if you think their point has no merit or influence on you.
It's your journal, you're just posting what you see and nobody is forced to read it. No obligations, just a journal. I find all these quibbles that always turn up have a rather familiar ring to one of Shakespeare's play titles: "Much ado about nothing".
And a golden forum rule usually is: don't feed the troll

I believe I may have tried to mention PA before and it could be that you already explained why it's of no big use to you. If so, smjones can feel free to just delete this post as it would become void. Or just say so and I can erase it again myself =)


My best wishes and good luck,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,740
  • Nov 13, 2006 2:06pm Nov 13, 2006 2:06pm
I'm fairly new to the Forex World; I've seen and read alot of different stratagies for entry and exits into the market. It's good to see 'quality' advise that I can add to my collection of stratagies.

Thanks Itme for you expert advise and views on the Forex Market. I hope to achieve the same quality of market analysis as you.
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