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Nordling's Legacy - Live Fundamental Trading

  • #161
  • Edited 10:22pm Nov 3, 2021 2:40pm | Edited 10:22pm
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} DOPE Thanks for the comprehensive answer, it's great to be properly oriented. I took a beating from this latest FOMC and I'm intent on learning from my mistakes (still holding my short on EUR/USD though LOL). Is it difficult jumping straight into macroeconomics without any prior economic/finance background?
You are always welcome!

Well, of course it is better to have a background on something but it is really not necessary. I am a 21 year old guy who started trading as soon as he turned 18 So i can assure you i have no background

I was just interested on financial markets and reading about these stuff, so no matter how many times and how big i have failed i didn't give up. I still don't. For fundamentals I directly started by studying the macroeconomic books that they gave us in university and they shone a light for me. Inflation is bad for the currency, GDP is good for the economy but bad for the currency etc. and i just kept searching and trying. And even after 3 years, there's still lots of room for improvement. So while trading fundamentals, every new day is an opportunity to learn and improve yourself. I still have a lot to learn. The trick is, being wiser than you were yesterday. Sorry this may all sound cliche but that's true. It may take a year or two to reach the place where you feel comfortable while trading.

About EUR/USD, i am holding my sells too, it will go down no worries
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  • #162
  • Nov 3, 2021 8:12pm Nov 3, 2021 8:12pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} You are always welcome! Well, of course it is better to have a background on something but it is really not necessary. I am a 21 year old guy who started trading as soon as he turned 18 So i can assure you i have no background I was just interested on financial markets and reading about these stuff, so no matter how many times and how big i have failed i didn't give up. I still don't. or fundamentals I directly started by studying the macroeconomic books that they gave us in university and they shone a light for me. Inflation...
Incredible. And here I am, constantly questioning if I made the right decisions in my youth So no, definitely not cliche.

Anyway, I found a syllabus online for a university-level economics course and I'm currently downloading the textbooks mentioned in it (Libgen is such a godsend). In your analyses of currency pairs, how much weight do you give to fundamentals? More weight than TA and sentiment?
Trying my best.
  • #163
  • Nov 3, 2021 10:34pm Nov 3, 2021 10:34pm
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} Incredible. And here I am, constantly questioning if I made the right decisions in my youth So no, definitely not cliche. Anyway, I found a syllabus online for a university-level economics course and I'm currently downloading the textbooks mentioned in it (Libgen is such a godsend). In your analyses of currency pairs, how much weight do you give to fundamentals? More weight than TA and sentiment?
I trade mainly based on fundamentals, i use sentiment (COT reports) as a confirmation and sometimes TA for confirmation and for entries. So i can say that it is 80-90% fundamentals.
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  • #164
  • Nov 4, 2021 8:39pm Nov 4, 2021 8:39pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} I trade mainly based on fundamentals, i use sentiment (COT reports) as a confirmation and sometimes TA for confirmation and for entries. So i can say that it is 80-90% fundamentals.

Seriously such a refreshing take. Thanks again for your help!
Trying my best.
  • #165
  • Nov 4, 2021 11:13pm Nov 4, 2021 11:13pm
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} Seriously such a refreshing take. Thanks again for your help!
You are welcome buddy! Whenever you have questions i would be glad to answer them. Greenest pips to you!
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  • #166
  • Nov 10, 2021 1:32am Nov 10, 2021 1:32am
Rest in peace to the man who brought democracy, liberalism, secularism and human rights to a nation. Rest in peace to the man who have spent 22 years of his life in trenches. Rest in peace to the the man who gave women voting rights in 1934, before even France, Belgium, Italy and Greece. Rest in peace to the man who educated a whole nation. Rest in peace to the man who is not just a figure of his nation, he is a figure and an idol for the whole world. 10/11/193∞

Inserted Video
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  • #167
  • Nov 10, 2021 11:39am Nov 10, 2021 11:39am
Just saw that we had the same result on USD/JPY in the other thread. Congrats to us! Here's my very basic study with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. I don't use many other indicators because I believe it confuses the purpose of Ichimoku (which translates to "one glance"). You'll see that there were strong signals for a significant upward movement on the Daily and Weekly chart.

However, I would love to hear how you arrived at the same conclusion from a fundamentals standpoint. It seems your method might complement my long-term analyses with Ichimoku Anyway, any chance you could please shed some light on your rationale for your long position?

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EDIT: mistake on image 2. it should say "reinforces study on Daily timeframe"

At the moment, it looks like there's still potential for more upward movement with Ichimoku on longer timeframes.
Trying my best.
  • #168
  • Edited 11:27am Nov 11, 2021 10:57am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting moondoggie
Just saw that we had the same result on USD/JPY in the other thread. Congrats to us! Here's my very basic study with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. I don't use many other indicators because I believe it confuses the purpose of Ichimoku (which translates to "one glance"). You'll see that there were strong signals for a significant upward movement on the Daily and Weekly chart. However, I would love to hear how you arrived at the same conclusion from a fundamentals standpoint. It seems your method might complement my long-term analyses with Ichimoku...
Congratulations

Fundamental wise, UJ is a strong buy because FED is hawkish and BoJ is super dovish. Also, USD is the strongest currency right now when you add up all inflation and growth numbers and compare it with other countries'

I am currently long on UJ, short on EU and GU. Just closed my EURSEK sells neutral. Left only one little sell position on EURSEK
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  • #169
  • Nov 11, 2021 11:25am Nov 11, 2021 11:25am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Congratulations Fundamental wise, UJ is a strong buy because FED is hawkish and BoJ is super dovish. Also, USD is the strongest currency right now when you add up all inflation and growth numbers and compare it with other countries' I am currently long on UJ, short on EU and GU. Just closee my EURSEK sells neutral. Left only one little position.
I am waiting for pullback so I can buy again.
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  • #170
  • Nov 11, 2021 4:03pm Nov 11, 2021 4:03pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Congratulations Fundamental wise, UJ is a strong buy because FED is hawkish and BoJ is super dovish. Also, USD is the strongest currency right now when you add up all inflation and growth numbers and compare it with other countries' I am currently long on UJ, short on EU and GU. Just closed my EURSEK sells neutral. Left only one little sell position on EURSEK
I see! Yes, I just covered a little bit about this in my textbook. This is what I'm reading :

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Yep, at the moment my ichimoku signals are telling me the same things. EUR/USd has deep red clouds ahead; lagging and leading lines are signalling bearish long-term. USD/JPY is also green ahead. I gotta say, it's kind of nice to have the fundamentals line up with my TA. It's like discovering the missing pieces of the puzzle. Can't wait to find more time with this book
Trying my best.
  • #171
  • Nov 12, 2021 1:18am Nov 12, 2021 1:18am
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} I see! Yes, I just covered a little bit about this in my textbook. This is what I'm reading : {image} Yep, at the moment my ichimoku signals are telling me the same things. EUR/USd has deep red clouds ahead; lagging and leading lines are signalling bearish long-term. USD/JPY is also green ahead. I gotta say, it's kind of nice to have the fundamentals line up with my TA. It's like discovering the missing pieces of the puzzle. Can't wait to find more time with this book
You are doing great buddy! I am happy to see that you can align TA and FA and use them together. It will benefit you a lot!

If you have any questions i would be glad to answer. Also don't forget that currency value and economy are two different things. They usually go opposite directions. They have an inverse relationship. Some news can benefit the economy and stock market but it also can depreciate the currency. It's the central bank's job to find the balance between these two.

Have a nice one and greenest pips!
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  • #172
  • Nov 12, 2021 1:33am Nov 12, 2021 1:33am
Just sold EUR/GBP. I should have done it last night but i was lazy to update my excel sheet. I need more discipline in my life. Anyways, sold it here:

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  • #173
  • Nov 14, 2021 3:12pm Nov 14, 2021 3:12pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} You are doing great buddy! I am happy to see that you can align TA and FA and use them together. It will benefit you a lot! If you have any questions i would be glad to answer. Also don't forget that currency value and economy are two different things. They usually go opposite directions. They have an inverse relationship. Some news can benefit the economy and stock market but it also can depreciate the currency. It's the central bank's job to find the balance between these two. Have a nice one and greenest pips!

Thanks a bunch, I appreciate the encouragement. I'll keep those things in mind as well as I go forward this week, especially with the upcoming news.

Also damn, coming over here from the recent insanity at the EUR/USD thread is relieving haha. I had no idea people like that existed on FF But that's the internet for you, right?
Trying my best.
  • #174
  • Nov 15, 2021 12:26pm Nov 15, 2021 12:26pm
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} Thanks a bunch, I appreciate the encouragement. I'll keep those things in mind as well as I go forward this week, especially with the upcoming news. Also damn, coming over here from the recent insanity at the EUR/USD thread is relieving haha. I had no idea people like that existed on FF But that's the internet for you, right?
Anti-vax people are making up the majority in this forum. I don't know why
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  • #175
  • Nov 15, 2021 12:27pm Nov 15, 2021 12:27pm
Closed my UJ long positions in profit:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ.png Size: 39 KB
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  • #176
  • Nov 15, 2021 1:30pm Nov 15, 2021 1:30pm
Quoting Nordling00
Closed my UJ long positions in profit: {image}

Nice! Congrats on the win. I'm currently thinking about closing my short on EUR/USD, I made the dumb mistake of trying to scale-in my position at 1.13680 at the most recent bearish spike. In my 2 months of live trading, this is the most tense I've ever felt Next time, I might want to avoid trading during a time like this. But anyway, most of the forecasts for the upcoming US news this week seem to indicate good things for USD... perhaps I'll hold.
Trying my best.
  • #177
  • Nov 15, 2021 1:58pm Nov 15, 2021 1:58pm
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} Nice! Congrats on the win. I'm currently thinking about closing my short on EUR/USD, I made the dumb mistake of trying to scale-in my position at 1.13680 at the most recent bearish spike. In my 2 months of live trading, this is the most tense I've ever felt Next time, I might want to avoid trading during a time like this. But anyway, most of the forecasts for the upcoming US news this week seem to indicate good things for USD... perhaps I'll hold.
Thank you buddy

Well, I don't know which timeframe you are trading. If you are thinking about being a short term trader like a scalper or a daytrader, i unfortunately don't have the answers.

I myself hold my trades for weeks & months. According to my mid-long term analysis EU is still bearish and i am still keeping my shorts open and I wouldn't recommend buying it since Euro is fundamentally weak. But even though it is fundamentally weak, pullbacks can happen in a downtrend. But if you can take the whole downtrend, why would you try to chase pullbacks and take the risk of going against the trend & fundamentals?

So my advice would be don't buy it, sell every pullback, even though you are late to the party (like i was in my last UJ positions) you probably won't get hurt.

But in the end it all depends on your style of trading. These are my views as a position trader, but i am sure a scalper or a daytrader will also be looking forward to profit from a pullback too. Pick the style that fits you, pick the timeframes that you feel comfortable with and know how much risk is too much for you. Anything lower than Daily timeframe looks too risky and fast for me for example.
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  • #178
  • Nov 15, 2021 2:27pm Nov 15, 2021 2:27pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Thank you buddy Well, I don't know which timeframe you are trading. If you are thinking about being a short term trader like a scalper or a daytrader, i unfortunately don't have the answers. I myself hold my trades for weeks & months. According to my mid-long term analysis EU is still bearish and i am still keeping my shorts open and I wouldn't recommend buying it since Euro is fundamentally weak. But even though it is fundamentally weak, pullbacks can happen in a downtrend. But if you can take the whole...

I mostly make my decisions based on 1hr and 4hr charts, though I routinely check the daily and weekly charts as well. I think ideally, I'd like to strike a balance somewhere between daytrading and position trading. I just can't handle the stress of scalping Sounds like you're definitely trading on the least stressful timeframes!

For EUR/USD, yeah, I was definitely late to the party haha. I'll keep my shorts open and consider adding to my position if it retraces.
Trying my best.
  • #179
  • Nov 15, 2021 2:42pm Nov 15, 2021 2:42pm
Quoting moondoggie
{quote} I mostly make my decisions based on 1hr and 4hr charts, though I routinely check the daily and weekly charts as well. I think ideally, I'd like to strike a balance somewhere between daytrading and position trading. I just can't handle the stress of scalping Sounds like you're definitely trading on the least stressful timeframes! For EUR/USD, yeah, I was definitely late to the party haha. I'll keep my shorts open and consider adding to my position if it retraces.
I would die from stress if i were to trade like a scalper or a daytrader Lower the timeframe, higher the risk. The lower you go the harder it gets. So imo lower tfs require more expertise. So be careful.
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  • #180
  • Nov 15, 2021 3:00pm Nov 15, 2021 3:00pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} I would die from stress if i were to trade like a scalper or a daytrader Lower the timeframe, higher the risk. The lower you go the harder it gets. So imo lower tfs require more expertise. So be careful.
Noted, thanks for the advice! I'll keep this in mind as I go forward
Trying my best.
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