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vsa with Malcolm

  • #34,881
  • Edited 7:23am Nov 6, 2021 6:51am | Edited 7:23am
This looked like a good trade yesterday on the Dow.

False break of the Asian lows, followed by an effort to rise bar taking out the OR high showing potential demand.

No supply back into the OR high confirming the strength, and potential entry here.

(Not on my laptop so cant see what the "medium term trend" etc was saying but looked like a nice RR trade)

Got my evaluation set-up again so I will be back trading/posting on Monday.
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  • #34,882
  • Nov 6, 2021 6:52am Nov 6, 2021 6:52am
Quoting SyntaxError
For those that missed it ... {image}
Hi SyntaxError

I like that flip chart style quick reference... Is there anywhere I can download them in one go rather than scanning through all the attachments.
Appreciated.
  • #34,883
  • Edited 11:23am Nov 6, 2021 7:22am | Edited 11:23am
Quoting PaulVic
{quote} Hi SyntaxError I like that flip chart style quick reference... Is there anywhere I can download them in one go rather than scanning through all the attachments. Appreciated.
I merged them into a single PDF to make it easier mate.

They are not in perfect order/layout though.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Tom & SyntaxError SOS-SOW principles.pdf   571 KB | 587 downloads
  • #34,884
  • Nov 6, 2021 7:43am Nov 6, 2021 7:43am
Quoting Paulscaff1
This looked like a good trade yesterday on the Dow. False break of the Asian lows, followed by an effort to rise bar taking out the OR high showing potential demand. No supply back into the OR high confirming the strength, and potential entry here. (Not on my laptop so cant see what the "medium term trend" etc was saying but looked like a nice RR trade) Got my evaluation set-up again so I will be back trading/posting on Monday. {image}
i thought i could help a little bit in this regard

M30
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M15
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P.S. my office time, lol.
  • #34,885
  • Nov 6, 2021 7:56am Nov 6, 2021 7:56am
Quoting attique08
{quote} i thought i could help a little bit in this regard M30{image} M15 {image} P.S. my office time, lol.
Nice one mate, with other good opportunities to enter/scale in.
  • #34,886
  • Nov 7, 2021 12:54am Nov 7, 2021 12:54am
US 30 M30

Lovely SOS 6 again ... bloody things are everywhere
  • #34,887
  • Nov 7, 2021 3:05am Nov 7, 2021 3:05am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} I merged them into a single PDF to make it easier mate. They are not in perfect order/layout though. {image}
cheers Paul, many thanks.
  • #34,888
  • Nov 7, 2021 5:03am Nov 7, 2021 5:03am
Quoting SyntaxError
US 30 M30 Lovely SOS 6 again ... bloody things are everywhere
Hey Syntax, could you upload the image of the chart if it is not a bother?
Fred
  • #34,889
  • Nov 7, 2021 1:52pm Nov 7, 2021 1:52pm
I was referring the one just posted by Attique 8 .. the first chart

Once you get this this principle in your minds eye you will see them everywhere

They are the most reliable and understandable pattern or principle in the whole VSA spectrum

Simply wait for the secondary testing and place an entry on stop to go long a few ticks above the high

Your stop is a few ticks below the low of the test or the stopping action

Tis a lovely thing
  • #34,890
  • Nov 7, 2021 11:54pm Nov 7, 2021 11:54pm
Stalking AUDUSD on the Daily:

  1. Wide spread down bar, but below avg. volume. Institutional money isn't selling
  2. Heavier volume than the last bar on a narrower spread. Someone is buying and Stopping Volume is entering the picture.
  3. Momentum is too strong. Outside reversal days are ominous but the reduced volume suggests it could be a short term dip
  4. Shakeout as lower prices are rejected. Volume is average so the lows may not be retested if/when price pushes higher

Ideally, the current bar ends up low volume and looks like a test.

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  • #34,891
  • Edited 4:13am Nov 8, 2021 3:42am | Edited 4:13am
I think I just got lucky on this trade. It doesn't seem like price would grind for 5 hours just to drop 20 pips.

I liked Friday's volume at NFP, sharp increase in volume compared to the previous bar and as you can see there wasn't much interest in taking price above Friday's high volume close. There was one bar that managed to close above the HVC but with the next bar closing down forming a 2 bar reversal.

I closed the trade because of the widespread down bar. Always good to close your trade after seeing climatic spread.

On the chart I marked a bar as no selling pressure, its suppose to be no buying pressure.
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  • #34,892
  • Nov 8, 2021 4:04am Nov 8, 2021 4:04am
I didn't take any trades here..

But something that I was thinking about is how market behavior changes. Earlier in the year almost all of my high volume closes I choose were based on the home session on the previous day. For example USDJPY I would've been marking off HVC based on the Asian session from the previous day. The last couple of months price hasn't been responding to the previous day's home session but they've been responding to the previous day's highest volume bar, or highest expansion bar.

On this chart you see 2 bar into the HVC, if you look at the bar before the selling bar, its a test below resistance. With the selling bar as the reaction to the test its clear SM wasn't interested in breaking through the resistance.
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  • #34,893
  • Edited 8:27am Nov 8, 2021 7:57am | Edited 8:27am
Quoting Macallik
Stalking AUDUSD on the Daily: Wide spread down bar, but below avg. volume. Institutional money isn't selling Heavier volume than the last bar on a narrower spread. Someone is buying and Stopping Volume is entering the picture. Momentum is too strong. Outside reversal days are ominous but the reduced volume suggests it could be a short term dip Shakeout as lower prices are rejected. Volume is average so the lows may not be retested if/when price pushes higher Ideally, the current bar ends up low volume and looks like a test. {image}
Price is not going as low as I'd like so I don't think today is likely to be a test bar. I might still get involved though as the smaller timeframe is mirroring the accumulation on the Daily. Attached is the 30m:

 

  1. Bottom Reversal shows aggression by buyers
  2. No Supply
  3. No Supply
  4. Would you classify this as a bullish outside reversal day, a heavy volume hidden test, an 'effort w/ reduced results' bar, or something else?
  5. Sellers enter the fracas. Ideally price finds support in the shaded area, and pushes higher. The timing of a quick BUEC (Back Up to Edge of Creek) lower could coincide w/ the open of US markets. With that said, if price continues lower, I wouldn't be surprised if price retested .7383 for more liquidity either.



Edit: Saw too much strength and jumped in @ .74175
Edit #2: BUEC is still in play actually. Exited @ 8:26 CST and will look to re-enter lower

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  • #34,894
  • Nov 8, 2021 12:18pm Nov 8, 2021 12:18pm
Still bullish long term, but hit the counter-trend trade instead. I was hoping to get another test of the supply line on the channel but price started breaking down before that could happen:

Edit: Stopped out
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  • #34,895
  • Nov 8, 2021 12:20pm Nov 8, 2021 12:20pm
as everything isn't aligned on MTF (ATR stops and HMA), so entered with lowered risk and tight SL.
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  • #34,896
  • Nov 9, 2021 9:00am Nov 9, 2021 9:00am
I have a sneaking suspicion that UJ is about to break out to the down side. Also don't forget, volume in forex is fake and the markets are random.
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  • #34,897
  • Nov 9, 2021 9:18am Nov 9, 2021 9:18am
Quoting Anotan
I have a sneaking suspicion that UJ is about to break out to the down side. Also don't forget, volume in forex is fake and the markets are random. {image}
I'm stalking the other side for a long term long. The fact that you are short is a clear sign that I'm too early lol. I wish I had more conviction in CAT like you suggested a few posts back too.
  • #34,898
  • Nov 9, 2021 9:21am Nov 9, 2021 9:21am
Quoting Macallik
{quote}{image}
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Updated the Accumulation Schematic w/ the latest price. 3m shows smart money scooping up shares imo:
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  • #34,899
  • Nov 9, 2021 9:29am Nov 9, 2021 9:29am
Quoting Macallik
{quote} I'm stalking the other side for a long term long. The fact that you are short is a clear sign that I'm too early lol. I wish I had more conviction in CAT like you suggested a few posts back too.
My stops were hit, just now.. I would still wait on longs, see if tomorrow breaks above today's highest volume bar.
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  • #34,900
  • Nov 9, 2021 9:40am Nov 9, 2021 9:40am
Quoting Macallik
{quote} {image}Updated the Accumulation Schematic w/ the latest price. 3m shows smart money scooping up shares imo: {image}
Too cheeky w/ a tight entry potentially:
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