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The Swamp

  • #92,061
  • Nov 4, 2021 11:38am Nov 4, 2021 11:38am
Quoting codyt.b
{quote} I too am wondering if this seasonal pattern will play out or if covid changed the "seasonal" dynamics because of the emergency policies {image}
I can't be too aggressive with position size at current levels... I see the 1.1490 Gator has mentioned many times even when we were at much higher levels (Big respect buddy).. Retail is currently long EURO, and that's, why i think the move up, is not yet, even though i entered with a small long at 1.1550

But we have seen a 6% increase on the US dollar index in a small period of time, this is quite a move in itself, but i think it has one more leg before topping out.

Time will tell of course
Cheers!!
  • #92,062
  • Nov 4, 2021 11:49am Nov 4, 2021 11:49am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 1.154 if not defended. maybe some profit taking on a big doble bottom but 1M loosing momentum 5M /15M needs to guard 1.154 area 30M rejected near 1.1553 .... just like the other bull of 1.156 i would be amazed to see trading above 1.158 . maybe they just bot the double bottom and on the second attempt it goes for good
A I hammer off 1553 old S/R, a hammer off 1526 old s/r. Pa from old July 2020.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,063
  • Nov 4, 2021 12:04pm Nov 4, 2021 12:04pm
It usually chops for an hour on 1 min. It may snap out of it. Its over 1h now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,064
  • Nov 4, 2021 12:06pm Nov 4, 2021 12:06pm
Quoting PipsMaster23
{quote} I can't be too aggressive with position size at current levels... I see the 1.1490 Gator has mentioned many times even when we were at much higher levels (Big respect buddy).. Retail is currently long EURO, and that's, why i think the move up, is not yet, even though i entered with a small long at 1.1550 But we have seen a 6% increase on the US dollar index in a small period of time, this is quite a move in itself, but i think it has one more leg before topping out. Time will tell of course
1492
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,065
  • Nov 4, 2021 12:16pm Nov 4, 2021 12:16pm
Quoting codyt.b
{quote} I too am wondering if this seasonal pattern will play out or if covid changed the "seasonal" dynamics because of the emergency policies {image}
worth noting that 3 of the 6 losses to this seasonal were 2009 2010 and 2011
  • #92,066
  • Nov 4, 2021 12:17pm Nov 4, 2021 12:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
It usually chops for an hour on 1 min. It may snap out of it. Its over 1h now.
1552/62 is in that 1 min dynamic area,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,067
  • Nov 4, 2021 12:17pm Nov 4, 2021 12:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1492 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aF_unlvjccA

haha noted... 1.1492

Thanks for the history lesson also..
Cheers!!
  • #92,068
  • Nov 4, 2021 12:22pm Nov 4, 2021 12:22pm
Quoting PipsMaster23
{quote} I can't be too aggressive with position size at current levels... I see the 1.1490 Gator has mentioned many times even when we were at much higher levels (Big respect buddy).. Retail is currently long EURO, and that's, why i think the move up, is not yet, even though i entered with a small long at 1.1550 But we have seen a 6% increase on the US dollar index in a small period of time, this is quite a move in itself, but i think it has one more leg before topping out. Time will tell of course
you know it does beg the question with the ECB dovish and the BOE backpedaling on previous hawkishness as well as the old wound of brexit inflamed because of supply chain problems food scare causing a ruckus on fishing waters in there area just wonder how much of that will spill over into central bank policy/rates .... it does give a good argument to some dollar strength time will tell just something to ponder on
  • #92,069
  • Nov 4, 2021 12:51pm Nov 4, 2021 12:51pm
Quoting codyt.b
{quote} you know it does beg the question with the ECB dovish and the BOE backpedaling on previous hawkishness as well as the old wound of brexit inflamed because of supply chain problems food scare causing a ruckus on fishing waters in there area just wonder how much of that will spill over into central bank policy/rates .... it does give a good argument to some dollar strength time will tell just something to ponder on
Last week when U.S. reported some bad GDP news. I recall someone saying. The first to report bad news. Don't mean the rest dont have the same bad news.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,070
  • Nov 4, 2021 12:55pm Nov 4, 2021 12:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
That GDP # was a kick in the balls. One thing about GDP. It wasn't from a lack of demand. It was from a lack of parts. So a lower GDP will reflect on the entire world. The U.S, was just the one who reported it today. First in, also means first out. Some of that was storm related when the refineries shut down here. Many are still shutdown. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bus...f-16419033.php
Bad news somewhere is usually the same everywhere. The world is connected.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,071
  • Nov 4, 2021 5:15pm Nov 4, 2021 5:15pm
now we got a new R at 1572 I think. Along with 1607 and 1614 now. The quarter and all lower tf closed below 1508/07. The week and all lower time frames have closed below 1571/72. So we may have a new lower top st at 1572.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,072
  • Nov 4, 2021 5:36pm Nov 4, 2021 5:36pm
L GBP risking 3 pips. will add if it runs..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,073
  • Nov 4, 2021 5:48pm Nov 4, 2021 5:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
L GBP risking 3 pips. will add if it runs.. {image} {image}
out with 0
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,074
  • Nov 4, 2021 7:51pm Nov 4, 2021 7:51pm
24 hs ago the down move started. Lets see if it does it now. The next candle was the red long one, red candle #2. (next h is 24 h)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #92,075
  • Nov 5, 2021 2:11am Nov 5, 2021 2:11am
well since i was wrong yesterday shorting USD take that into consideration when reading this

but at this point everybody long USD because Good NFP coming.

so now. if good NFP coming 700k - 1M -- of course means US economy rocking also Unemployment probably will go down so now FED has resolved also unemployment and also inflation -

so every reason to stay Short eur/usd .

i for one will be buying dips in aud/usd nzd/usd - . maybe even GU if it drops further.
eur probably the last. next week

of course depending on the market but for sure i will not long usd on a big raise of the dollar today.

how about you guys. ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #92,076
  • Nov 5, 2021 2:38am Nov 5, 2021 2:38am
Quoting DMA Trader
well since i was wrong yesterday shorting USD take that into consideration when reading this but at this point everybody long USD because Good NFP coming. so now. if good NFP coming 700k - 1M -- of course means US economy rocking also Unemployment probably will go down so now FED has resolved also unemployment and also inflation - so every reason to stay Short eur/usd . i for one will be buying dips in aud/usd nzd/usd - . maybe even GU if it drops further. eur probably the last. next week of course depending on the market but for sure i will not...
Eur/USd 1.157 R
Gbp/USD 1.35 R1 1.356 - R2

i hope they don't go there before NFP because totally changes the plan
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #92,077
  • Nov 5, 2021 2:47am Nov 5, 2021 2:47am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Eur/USd 1.157 R Gbp/USD 1.35 R1 1.356 - R2 i hope they don't go there before NFP because totally changes the plan
i have no idea What is coming.. i am waiting on crosses to finish so i think we range i could be wrong..
  • #92,078
  • Nov 5, 2021 3:19am Nov 5, 2021 3:19am
Quoting swing 123
{quote} it would be a good buy if above 1562 today but NFP may fcuk it up...lets see tomorrow. GL & tc.
it would have gone up a bit if wasn't a NFP day..better wait till the number is out.
  • #92,079
  • Nov 5, 2021 3:52am Nov 5, 2021 3:52am
Quoting q_import
{quote} i have no idea What is coming.. i am waiting on crosses to finish so i think we range i could be wrong..
thanks so no position from you before - NFP and then you just wait for reactions and then maybe trade also is friday ... difficult day
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #92,080
  • Nov 5, 2021 4:02am Nov 5, 2021 4:02am
It dont mean much with NFP coming. In the current move, the 12h was lower.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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