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The Swamp

  • #91,921
  • Nov 3, 2021 4:55am Nov 3, 2021 4:55am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} honestly it's something very strange in the market, i talked to a lot of traders who lost millions this days. market has change the structure looks like 2020. i gave a warning to others that moves will come that will kill margin and leverage, last week, my idea is to not be wrong to post because i can do damage to others. and i was very confident because i had very good days/weeks. so at this point i do expect maybe a drop of eur on the news than a big move on stock markets. so again if one needs to hear this reduce leverage...
yep
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,922
  • Nov 3, 2021 5:08am Nov 3, 2021 5:08am
de ja vu
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Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #91,923
  • Nov 3, 2021 5:11am Nov 3, 2021 5:11am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Since last week, and the month closed below 1608. I have to go with that. 1492 and or 1447 look like the places pa needs to be. PA is acting weird. It may just be pressure before a blowup. Closing a week above 1608 would make 1492 less likely in the shorter term. I cant say it will play out this way. 1608 may be R soon. At some point it may keep pa under 1608. It and 1593/98 and 1582.
I think we get answers this week , starting later today.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,924
  • Nov 3, 2021 5:14am Nov 3, 2021 5:14am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think we get answers this week , starting later today. {image}
i think we are in for a surprise.
something the market doesn't' expect.

if i am correct this week move will be big
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #91,925
  • Nov 3, 2021 5:27am Nov 3, 2021 5:27am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i think we are in for a surprise. something the market doesn't' expect. if i am correct this week move will be big
That inflation is pretty tough. That has to be in the Fomc minutes
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,926
  • Nov 3, 2021 5:34am Nov 3, 2021 5:34am
Eur datapoints atm..
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  • #91,927
  • Nov 3, 2021 5:37am Nov 3, 2021 5:37am
Woke up late...I traded some Eur longs for now as long as 1580 can hold on M15 ..
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  • #91,928
  • Nov 3, 2021 5:43am Nov 3, 2021 5:43am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i think we are in for a surprise. something the market doesn't' expect. if i am correct this week move will be big
keep an eye on +-1608 closes. 1574 holds it up atm. 1582 has a smaller role. Pa inside 1608/1574 now is probably a range.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,929
  • Nov 3, 2021 5:47am Nov 3, 2021 5:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} That inflation is pretty tough. That has to be in the Fomc minutes
that is what everybody is saying - i think it is something unexpected.
inflation if they hit the panic button i's a trend change so i expect differently

but we will see. i really have no idea. i've closed most of the position on most of the pairs. if eur doesn't hit before my tp i will probably hedge it with a long GU
and that's it.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #91,930
  • Nov 3, 2021 5:55am Nov 3, 2021 5:55am
unemployment at 4.8% I don't expect many surprises... even with the 2% target reached
  • #91,931
  • Nov 3, 2021 6:22am Nov 3, 2021 6:22am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Since last week, and the month closed below 1608. I have to go with that. 1492 and or 1447 look like the places pa needs to be. PA is acting weird. It may just be pressure before a blowup. Closing a week above 1608 would make 1492 less likely in the shorter term. I cant say it will play out this way. 1608 may be R soon. At some point it may keep pa under 1608. It and 1593/98 and 1582.
lets add the Q closed below also. The structure can collapses upon itself. Things still could change. But Q, month, week, day, and most pa this week. Has been below 1608. Of course FOMC or some news could change this. I think This week's test of 1608. Then a drop exactly at the Norm of 1613. Is signaling a inside top. Unless some outer bound news changes this. I think a drop is unavoidable. PA is in the shadow of 1492. It can be a support. Being near support can cause a bounce (the past few months). At the same time 1492 is a normal retrace. PA is attracted to 1492. Some possible support 1492 and 1447 on the bigger charts. The reason many are losing accounts here is. There is no trend here. Even on Boulders day. The trend is not a trend. Its just range.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,932
  • Nov 3, 2021 6:36am Nov 3, 2021 6:36am
From day point view..bulls have held day uptrend stop for 5 days per Sys I .. ... as long as 1532 held at day close.. Eur may go higher..
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  • #91,933
  • Nov 3, 2021 6:41am Nov 3, 2021 6:41am
News test of theory coming today. The first in 35 min.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,934
  • Nov 3, 2021 6:47am Nov 3, 2021 6:47am
Quoting Boulder
From day point view..bulls have held day uptrend stop for 5 days per Sys I .. ... as long as 1532 held at day close.. Eur may go higher.. {image} {image}
the red circled, around the blue lines, represents those uptrend signals. The yellow line filtered those out. Any up move after the blue lines turned bullish were minimal .. 30 to 66 (average 48 pips) pips higher above the failure point. This last ones failure point was 1659. PA went up since 33 pips to last weeks high. It dropped at 1692 inline with the past rejections. When in consolidation, ma will distort. .
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,935
  • Nov 3, 2021 6:55am Nov 3, 2021 6:55am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} that is what everybody is saying - i think it is something unexpected. inflation if they hit the panic button i's a trend change so i expect differently but we will see. i really have no idea. i've closed most of the position on most of the pairs. if eur doesn't hit before my tp i will probably hedge it with a long GU and that's it.
missed the chance on GU - i was expecting nothing to do until tomorrow BOE meeting oh well.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #91,936
  • Nov 3, 2021 6:58am Nov 3, 2021 6:58am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} missed the chance on GU - i was expecting nothing to do until tomorrow BOE meeting oh well.
so now i went long on EU to hedge my short EU
h1 supports a bullish move H4 not. or it is a bear fllag and it will drop like rock

but now i have no exposure on any currency - zero - before FED and it's rare for me

of course now will be the discussion how will i close the hedge or the position but there is time for that
i've locked about 25 pips of loss.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #91,937
  • Nov 3, 2021 6:59am Nov 3, 2021 6:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the red circled, around the blue lines, represents those uptrend signals. The yellow line filtered those out. Any up move after the blue lines turned bullish were minimal .. 30 to 66 (average 48 pips) pips higher above the failure point. This last ones failure point was 1659. PA went up since 33 pips to last weeks high. It dropped at 1692 inline with the past rejections. When in consolidation, ma will distort. . {image}
Eventually the yellow filter line will fail, It too is ma based. A day close 1712 will kill it. Dynamic pa
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,938
  • Nov 3, 2021 6:59am Nov 3, 2021 6:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the red circled, around the blue lines, represents those uptrend signals. The yellow line filtered those out. Any up move after the blue lines turned bullish were minimal .. 30 to 66 (average 48 pips) pips higher above the failure point. This last ones failure point was 1659. PA went up since 33 pips to last weeks high. It dropped at 1692 inline with the past rejections. When in consolidation, ma will distort. . {image}
Guess system II is better.. day is still downtrend with stop 1699
  • #91,939
  • Nov 3, 2021 7:01am Nov 3, 2021 7:01am
ADP dud or not in 15 min.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,940
  • Nov 3, 2021 7:02am Nov 3, 2021 7:02am
fyi
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