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Uranium Trading 3 replies

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Uranium

  • #141
  • Oct 26, 2021 7:58am Oct 26, 2021 7:58am
Quoting squawk
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hu8wtHlJfLo
The title of that video makes me want to stay far away! Looking to scoop some options on rolls royce this week though. Just need to decide on a time frame.
  • #142
  • Oct 26, 2021 8:54am Oct 26, 2021 8:54am
Quoting BTCmailman
Looking to scoop some options on rolls royce this week though.
I've been looking to add the underlying to my portfolio - before I take a leap into any miners. Great defensive play imo and less concentration risk.
Live Challenge All Time Return: 171.5%
  • #143
  • Oct 28, 2021 1:34am Oct 28, 2021 1:34am
Uranium stocks have been shaken the last few days but seasonality says Nov, December should be on the Uranium side. There is just too much bullish news coming out on Uranium;

For those who don't know the link to seasonality charts here they are
https://charts.equityclock.com/?s=uranium+participation

Sput - Additional Rasing of capital
YellowCake - completed a share placement raising 150 million to by Physical Uranium - https://world-nuclear-news.org/Artic...nium-purchases
Kazatomprom new physical Uranium Fund - https://world-nuclear-news.org/Artic...l-uranium-fund
Japan to restart their Nuclear Reactors
Germany backflipping on Nuclear yesterday
UK investment in Nuclear
New green funding models for Nuclear

To touch on a few.

This is a volatile market to invest in but when it breaks through the gains will be worth the journey.
  • #144
  • Oct 28, 2021 3:07am Oct 28, 2021 3:07am
Great interview.

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  • #145
  • Oct 28, 2021 3:11am Oct 28, 2021 3:11am
Great chart, wish I was in at $10.

https://www.centrusenergy.com/
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  • #146
  • Oct 28, 2021 3:47pm Oct 28, 2021 3:47pm
Just added 2 additional smaller positions to the portfolio.

92E - 15,000 shares
Valor - 250,000 shares

Added in these as they have exposure to Athabasca Basin. 92E has some great claims with some shallow pits that believe will become great future deposits, and both have great potential price movements ahead.
  • #147
  • Oct 28, 2021 4:57pm Oct 28, 2021 4:57pm
Quoting squawk
Sput - Additional Rasing of capital YellowCake - completed a share placement raising 150 million to by Physical Uranium - https://world-nuclear-news.org/Artic...nium-purchases Kazatomprom new physical Uranium Fund - https://world-nuclear-news.org/Artic...l-uranium-fund Japan to restart their Nuclear Reactors Germany backflipping on Nuclear yesterday UK investment in Nuclear New green funding models for Nuclear To touch on a few.
Love to see it!

Didn't have time to post it here, but I picked up just a few hundred shares of Rolls Royce (RYCEF) yesterday. Looking to slowly open and add-to uranium miner positions in the coming month as well.
Live Challenge All Time Return: 171.5%
  • #148
  • Oct 28, 2021 5:03pm Oct 28, 2021 5:03pm
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Live Challenge All Time Return: 171.5%
  • #149
  • Oct 28, 2021 11:00pm Oct 28, 2021 11:00pm
Quoting yieldjunkie
{quote} Love to see it! Didn't have time to post it here, but I picked up just a few hundred shares of Rolls Royce (RYCEF) yesterday. Looking to slowly open and add-to uranium miner positions in the coming month as well.
Great to see. The ones I added today are junior exploration companies as I didn't have any in my portfolio yet.

Great to see Rolls Royce in there I am nibbling into it. I think has great potential upside.
  • #150
  • Oct 29, 2021 1:54am Oct 29, 2021 1:54am
Bannerman is the only position I completely liquidated at $40 after the CEO liquidated 80% of his position to the investment arm at $34. I got back in yesterday at $31 so a 9 dollar spread of profit. Time will tell if it was a good move getting back in at $31.
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  • #151
  • Nov 3, 2021 11:53am Nov 3, 2021 11:53am
CCJ

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  • #152
  • Nov 3, 2021 8:42pm Nov 3, 2021 8:42pm
Quoting BTCmailman
CCJ {image}
China Announcing 150 new reactors to be built will do that to the stocks. There may be a bit of a mad scramble to stockpile Uranium.....we will see.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ur...clear-reactors
  • #153
  • Nov 3, 2021 8:44pm Nov 3, 2021 8:44pm
China to supercharge uranium race with 150 new nuclear reactors

https://smallcaps.com.au/china-super...lear-reactors/
  • #154
  • Nov 4, 2021 1:19am Nov 4, 2021 1:19am
Quoting squawk
Bannerman is the only position I completely liquidated at $40 after the CEO liquidated 80% of his position to the investment arm at $34. I got back in yesterday at $31 so a 9 dollar spread of profit. Time will tell if it was a good move getting back in at $31. {image}
Bannerman came back up today and clear a 20% gain. $31 played out as good buying back in but had to watch it drop below $30 yesterday.
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  • #155
  • Edited 2:31am Nov 6, 2021 1:59am | Edited 2:31am
Nuclear Power is a big winner in the bipartisan infrastructure bill just passed by Congress The bill includes tax credits for existing nuclear plants that will be funded at $6 billion. Means larger and longer fuel contract purchasing for power stations that may have been forecast to close.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintel...genda-66911160
  • #156
  • Nov 7, 2021 7:44pm Nov 7, 2021 7:44pm
Quoting yieldjunkie
{quote} Love to see it! Didn't have time to post it here, but I picked up just a few hundred shares of Rolls Royce (RYCEF) yesterday. Looking to slowly open and add-to uranium miner positions in the coming month as well.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/small-scal...k=tw&tsrc=twtr
  • #157
  • Nov 9, 2021 11:39am Nov 9, 2021 11:39am
Man it's very clear what the Uranium bull case is, but it's scaring me that the market doesn't see it yet. It reminds me of Bitcoin in mid 2020, a time when I was insanely bullish but the market wasn't there yet. I had to keep asking myself what am I missing, what's the bear case, what does the market see that I don't?

So what is the bear case for Uranium from here? What are the risks that we're missing? And what is the downside if the bull case doesn't play out?

Risks that I can think of:

  1. Nuclear meltdown - this is the most obvious but seems unlikely. And although the media makes them sound scary, the actual impact of the Fukushima disaster was very limited casualties.
  2. Nuclear alternative to Uranium - a cheaper, easier to obtain, safer source that could fuel nuclear reactors instead of Uranium. I have heard Thorium mentioned before but I'm not a nuclear physicist so I have no clue if it would actually be better. Even if it was, the time and capital needed to build up the infrastructure to compete with Uranium would be massive so this also seems unlikely in the near future.
  3. The world gives up on fighting climate change - This would mean US lets everybody drill and allows pipelines they previously banned. But even with the laughable hypocrisy of all the private jets flying to COP-26 I think the world is committed to reducing the dependence on oil & gas.
  4. Better alternative to Nuclear is discovered - Wind & Solar aren't getting it done currently so this also seems unlikely.

As Morgan Housel says, "Risk Is What You Don’t See" so the true risk is probably something no one will see coming at this point in time, but the ones we can anticipate seem relatively unlikely. Anything else that's obvious that I'm missing here?

What is the downside?
Pulling from a fellow bull here, $30 Uranium does seem to be longer term support and at current price of ~$45 we're risking 33% to gain 100%+. Now this is obviously over simplistic and doesn't account for leverage in miners, etc but it's a decent proxy for the Risk/Reward here and I think 100% gain is a conservative estimate. Risk $33 to make $100+, that's my kinda bet!

Why hasn't the market caught up yet?
A much harder question to answer, trying to understand the market in the short term can be a futile game. Could be information asymmetry, people still scared of nuclear power, or maybe the market is still a bit to small for large players to come in without running the price up on themselves. Interested to hear others thoughts on this one too.

  • #158
  • Nov 9, 2021 11:41am Nov 9, 2021 11:41am
Quoting BTCmailman
{quote} I lied , picked up some starter positions in more miners tonight. Need to do more digging to see which ones I like best but it's a start. Updated holdings as of 10/18: BOE - 5,000 shares U.UN - 401 shares URNM - 27 shares CCJ 1/21/22 25 Call - 4 contracts NXE 2/18/22 7 Call - 10 contracts BMN - 1,800 shares DYL - 600 shares LOT - 2,200 shares PDN - 700 shares PEN - 2,200 shares

Updated holdings as of 11/9:

BOE - 5,000 shares
U.UN - 401 shares
URNM - 27 shares
BMN - 3,800 shares
DYL - 1,350 shares
LOT - 4,500 shares
PDN - 1,450 shares
PEN - 4,600 shares
RR - 500 shares
CCJ 1/21/22 25 Call - 4 contracts
NXE 2/18/22 7 Call - 10 contracts
URNM 12/16/22 110 Call - 1 contract
  • #159
  • Edited 7:57pm Nov 9, 2021 6:54pm | Edited 7:57pm
Quoting BTCmailman
Man it's very clear what the Uranium bull case is, but it's scaring me that the market doesn't see it yet. It reminds me of Bitcoin in mid 2020, a time when I was insanely bullish but the market wasn't there yet. I had to keep asking myself what am I missing, what's the bear case, what does the market see that I don't? So what is the bear case for Uranium from here? What are the risks that we're missing? And what is the downside if the bull case doesn't play out? Risks that I can think of: Nuclear meltdown - this is the most obvious but seems unlikely....
Since this thread started bull case has only been strengthened by multiples.

What wasn't in the case initially when the thread started.
- Kazatomprom physical uranium trust
- Japan restarts
- China 150 new power stations

Great post BTC. My top three would be;
1. Meltdown is a definite one that would complicate things
2. I would put a meltdown on China's financial system causing global equities to fall. Think this could cause a substantial pullback but not change the bull case.
3. Would be a war over Taiwan
4. Nuclear waste reproduction

Think any alternative would be different ways to reuse waste. At the end of the day approx 10% of a fuel rods Uranium is expended in the Fusion process. That leaves 90% left if they can streamline the recycling process back into mixed oxide for reuse in Nuclear stations. Thinks this is far enough away not to affect this bull market.
  • #160
  • Edited 7:57pm Nov 9, 2021 7:09pm | Edited 7:57pm
Quoting BTCmailman
{quote} Updated holdings as of 11/9: BOE - 5,000 shares U.UN - 401 shares URNM - 27 shares BMN - 3,800 shares DYL - 1,350 shares LOT - 4,500 shares PDN - 1,450 shares PEN - 4,600 shares RR - 500 shares CCJ 1/21/22 25 Call - 4 contracts NXE 2/18/22 7 Call - 10 contracts URNM 12/16/22 110 Call - 1 contract
Nice mix across the board.

I have learnt in life, It's not always that easy to get positioned in a great bull Bull market. My positions have taken the last 3 years to build. Life is short, need to take the opportunities when presented.

Druckenmiller said: "Size, Size, Size, When You Think You’re Right!". That's how he made fortunes. It's a mistake if you are in big winning stocks and you have only a 5% or 10% position. Your biggest winners must be your biggest trades (20-30% or more)!

My mix - pretty much all ASX.
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