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The Swamp

  • #91,641
  • Oct 27, 2021 11:23am Oct 27, 2021 11:23am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} manage to make some money today also but i don't feel the market or something is going on {image}
month end rebalancing....
  • #91,642
  • Oct 27, 2021 11:25am Oct 27, 2021 11:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} you may be a multi millionaire soon, {image}
yea,, one of good investment ...maybe more room to go...
we talked about it back in May
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  • #91,643
  • Oct 27, 2021 12:09pm Oct 27, 2021 12:09pm
Imho this is leading AUD and NZD because they are raising rates they have inflation they act differently then FED
also USD/CAD but this is also about Oil.

So this guy is at resistance, now it either breaks and i am attacking EUR and GBP or this one stops here and EUR and GBP go down again but i will no short i don't know why. i just can't short it with some much bs talking from BOE and ECB

chart is AUD/USD H1
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #91,644
  • Oct 27, 2021 12:16pm Oct 27, 2021 12:16pm
Quoting DMA Trader
Imho this is leading AUD and NZD because they are raising rates they have inflation they act differently then FED also USD/CAD but this is also about Oil. So this guy is at resistance, now it either breaks and i am attacking EUR and GBP or this one stops here and EUR and GBP go down again but i will no short i don't know why. i just can't short it with some much bs talking from BOE and ECB chart is AUD/USD H1 {image}
and this is EUR/USD
1H chart
so if we get some momentum we have R1 1.1625 - than 1.1635 - if it break i thnk we can go higher to 1.167 ... area. above than honestly i don't think so but who knows.

i may get it just for some pips between the breakout of 1.1625 to 1.1667 . area - abov i don;t think they will take position before ECB or FED 3 nov tapper.
just 2c
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #91,645
  • Oct 27, 2021 12:30pm Oct 27, 2021 12:30pm
Nasdaq New All time Highs so risk on . that means we still favor a lower usd.
Earnings still coming in so things are looking good for RISK on trades.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #91,646
  • Oct 27, 2021 1:08pm Oct 27, 2021 1:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} almost 63% now. A decent day today. {image}
up 64.4% now, since Oct 1.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,647
  • Oct 27, 2021 1:11pm Oct 27, 2021 1:11pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Love the month end flow.. all the volatility coming with it....
You love the flow. More Sir;
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,648
  • Oct 27, 2021 1:44pm Oct 27, 2021 1:44pm
Quoting DMA Trader
Imho this is leading AUD and NZD because they are raising rates they have inflation they act differently then FED also USD/CAD but this is also about Oil. So this guy is at resistance, now it either breaks and i am attacking EUR and GBP or this one stops here and EUR and GBP go down again but i will no short i don't know why. i just can't short it with some much bs talking from BOE and ECB chart is AUD/USD H1 {image}
follow up for now they sold again AUD/USD 1H chart R rejected
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #91,649
  • Oct 27, 2021 1:49pm Oct 27, 2021 1:49pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} and this is EUR/USD 1H chart so if we get some momentum we have R1 1.1625 - than 1.1635 - if it break i thnk we can go higher to 1.167 ... area. above than honestly i don't think so but who knows. i may get it just for some pips between the breakout of 1.1625 to 1.1667 . area - abov i don;t think they will take position before ECB or FED 3 nov tapper. just 2c {image}
don't forget we got ECB tomorrow a lot of BS chatter they may just do nothing
and then all hell break loose for EUR lol.
also US GDP
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #91,650
  • Oct 27, 2021 2:23pm Oct 27, 2021 2:23pm
Prices are already up. Inflation is here, labor is less than 5% unemployed. Now items are less plentiful. That puts a premium on them. Less truck drivers etc just increases the cost. With unemployment under 5%, and the increased inflation. We will have during the festive season. It's looking like a perfect storm. The Fed mandate is full employment, (check) and to keep inflation low. Controlled with rates and/or usd flow. Most business are looking for workers. Less available workers drives wages up. The cost will be passed on. Prices will rise further.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,651
  • Oct 27, 2021 2:56pm Oct 27, 2021 2:56pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} yea,, one of good investment ...maybe more room to go... we talked about it back in May {image}
Its almost doubled since that high.. almost double in a few days. It more than doubled in my account.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,652
  • Oct 27, 2021 3:28pm Oct 27, 2021 3:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
Prices are already up. Inflation is here, labor is less than 5% unemployed. Now items are less plentiful. That puts a premium on them. Less truck drivers etc just increases the cost. With unemployment under 5%, and the increased inflation. We will have during the festive season. It's looking like a perfect storm. The Fed mandate is full employment, (check) and to keep inflation low. Controlled with rates and/or usd flow. Most business are looking for workers. Less available workers drives wages up. The cost will be passed on. Prices will rise further....
i am into inflation transitory camp lol

if FED stops buying bad assets and raise the rates near 2-3% bye bye inflation and speculation.

problem is the FED can't raise rates


some fundies now that market is closed
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #91,653
  • Oct 27, 2021 3:52pm Oct 27, 2021 3:52pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i am into inflation transitory camp lol if FED stops buying bad assets and raise the rates near 2-3% bye bye inflation and speculation. problem is the FED can't raise rates some fundies now that market is closed
Just imagine all the 3rd world countries who borrowed for infrastructure in USD. I know the Fed wont raise until its on our chest. This perfect storm has never happened before. Truck drivers already left their jobs. They found something better. They sleep in their own bed at night. They wont come back without a raise. The same with restaurant workers etc. They are gone. They want more $ to come back. They are stocking for google now. The country is short 80,000 truck drivers. The cost will be added to the customers. Your restaurant supplies are having problems finding good drivers. Your cost have gone up. We kicked out the guys picking the produce. Most Americans dont want the job. Your produce is almost double. An Apple is 1.50+.

I live in a mostly semi rural area. Basically A Trump area, I hired the illegals and have for decades. So does most of my business minded upper class neighbors. The guys with a Trump flag in the yard. Many of them made fortunes using the illegal's labor. They still do. They have housing set up on their property for them to live. Some even have a company a store for the illegals. To shop at on their land. I never had a store, but housed a few that worked for me.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,654
  • Oct 27, 2021 5:05pm Oct 27, 2021 5:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Just imagine all the 3rd world countries who borrowed for infrastructure in USD. I know the Fed wont raise until its on our chest. This perfect storm has never happened before. Truck drivers already left their jobs. They found something better. They sleep in their own bed at night. They wont come back without a raise. The same with restaurant workers etc. They are gone. They want more $ to come back. They are stocking for google now. The country is short 80,000 truck drivers. The cost will be added to the customers. Your restaurant supplies...
totally true. but the "inflation" is 100% coming from cheap money

i think for the first time in many years we manage to get inflation - a thing that Japan did not make it yet
I bet all the chatter about last week Powel telling that now we have inflation is chatter so they may get some more inflation expectation
after 10-15 years we finally have some power over deflation
commodities may have lumber fate after speculation goes down -

wages have not been up for many years it was about time.
but again let's not forget about we finally made some progress over deflation
i am strictly talking about USA - Europe is with far bigger problem that it can imagine.

meantime. ..

BRAZIL INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL: 7.75% VS 6.25% PREVIOUS;EST 7.25%
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #91,655
  • Oct 27, 2021 5:14pm Oct 27, 2021 5:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Just imagine all the 3rd world countries who borrowed for infrastructure in USD. I know the Fed wont raise until its on our chest. This perfect storm has never happened before. Truck drivers already left their jobs. They found something better. They sleep in their own bed at night. They wont come back without a raise. The same with restaurant workers etc. They are gone. They want more $ to come back. They are stocking for google now. The country is short 80,000 truck drivers. The cost will be added to the customers. Your restaurant supplies...
but then again it really looks like a perfect storm
imho for a few years/decades to come who knoes. maybe we will be all trilioners in a few decades - 50y - 100 )

enough with the fundies lol
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #91,656
  • Oct 27, 2021 5:20pm Oct 27, 2021 5:20pm
selling usd/cad here for some weekend money

usd/cad 1H chart
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #91,657
  • Oct 27, 2021 6:31pm Oct 27, 2021 6:31pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i am into inflation transitory camp lol if FED stops buying bad assets and raise the rates near 2-3% bye bye inflation and speculation. problem is the FED can't raise rates some fundies now that market is closed
Goldman says inflation will plunge next year. That may explain the new high. I still remember Goldman saying oil would hit 200 pb in late June 2008. Talking up their book. While they were selling storage tanks full of oil. https://money.yahoo.com/inflation-wi...5%20previously).
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,658
  • Oct 27, 2021 10:12pm Oct 27, 2021 10:12pm
I may look to s gbp 3769. I cant get 3622 w/o that break in 3706. It could fall from 3744 also.. If so its at the high.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,659
  • Oct 27, 2021 10:34pm Oct 27, 2021 10:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
I may look to s gbp 3769. I cant get 3622 w/o that break in 3706. It could fall from 3744 also.. If so its at the high. {image}
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I took the s .. stops above 3744 chart is showing 3740 as support.. so i may get torched quickly. Off to bed, gonna wake Boulder.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #91,660
  • Oct 28, 2021 5:05am Oct 28, 2021 5:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Goldman says inflation will plunge next year. That may explain the new high. I still remember Goldman saying oil would hit 200 pb in late June 2008. Talking up their book. While they were selling storage tanks full of oil. https://money.yahoo.com/inflation-wi...5%20previously).
it's true. imo - they can bring down easy inflation
not sure if they want (doesn't seem like it) or if they can stop tapper or raise interest rate on a huge debt

USA is far more clever than anyone - they for sure have the solution
and so we see back in history, whenever there are signs of inflation in USA Europe is killed by it.

Only thing i see wise is for ECB to raise interest rates or give some clear guidance. if not. i think Europe is in big trouble.

Look into Bank Earnings this time. All FED did was to make them stronger than ever cleaner than ever with incredible balance sheet. in the last 20-30 years you cannot see banking looking so good in USA. maybe never
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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