Forex markets seems to have changed | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

What changed in the Forex Market since the Coronavirus ? 1 reply

Forex changed forever! 315 replies

Poll, Have the long term trends changed? 12 replies

Hybrid Grid System that seems to work 3 replies

Attachments: Forex markets seems to have changed
Exit Attachments

Forex markets seems to have changed

  • #21
  • Oct 23, 2021 7:10pm Oct 23, 2021 7:10pm
Quoting lengendff
From this year July onwards. What works last year, does not work anymore now. I think the world economy is recovering from covid 19. Anyone feels the same?
I can tell you that the only thing that changes with any market is volatility

when people say things have changed it means volatility has changed

because the reason why people enter that's multiple reasons but have the sessions changed? No

the only thing that ever changes with forex or any kind of market is volatility

if you don't have volatility it's hard to trade certain things cause you can't make money from a "flat market" but pairs still move move than 60 pips a day on a 30 day average so there's some money to be made.

People have gone crypto crazy is why
  • #22
  • Oct 24, 2021 3:33am Oct 24, 2021 3:33am
Quoting lengendff
{quote} Most people would like to have second chance when they are wrong. Martingale offers that; second , third and more chances. Also when performing Martingale, it is usually done by a robot using a predefined system where there's no room for emotion or errors. Some do think that technical analysis are a scam. What happened in the past does not always happen in the future. Place a trade using TA means it's a 50/50 chance. With stop loss and it's sometimes worst than Martingale approach, where there is no second chance. Also different traders...
No, it doesn’t. It really, really, really mathematically doesn’t. If your strategy depends on the “Martingale” element, you are really no better off (and not worse either) than a coin toss. All it does is shift your wins:losses and avgWinSize:avgLossSize ratios from 1:1 and 1:1 to something like 99.99:0.01 and 0.01:99.99. Your edge is still 0 — all that changes is how (and when) you arrive to that inevitable conclusion.
  • #23
  • Oct 24, 2021 6:20am Oct 24, 2021 6:20am
Just look at the charts and see the live price action. FX is not at all as easy anymore due to widening spreads at tier 1 banks. Days of inactivity then weird tractor beams, sudden spikes that are sold back down to obscure the trend etc. I trade options on Forex via the NADEX. Much better. 1 week max trades, minimum $100 deposit, losses are capped at what you put up for collateral but you always have the potential to gain 50% or 70% a trade.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #24
  • Oct 25, 2021 8:40pm Oct 25, 2021 8:40pm
I agree entirely with @rickm that what worked last year for you in forex trading might not work this year. There are so many factors that affect the Forex market like Pandemic, Political news, International trade, Capital market, and all these factors do change with time. So yes, you need to be more adaptable to such changes and modify your strategy accordingly.
  • #25
  • Edited Oct 26, 2021 4:01am Oct 25, 2021 9:20pm | Edited Oct 26, 2021 4:01am
Itś not necessary wear donkey hat every day every hour, and shout loud, look at me.


No need to mention how regulation has change, institutions/banks activity in markets and how they can operate.
Or central bank policies, printing and free money,bond markets and only place put money (stock markets).
spreads,volatility,volume. so many things no time for explain more deeply.

It was little bit different 15-10 yrs ago, or when prices where quoted as fractions.

and if thinking only technology, like we have use cars where are engine four tyres or three, are they still look same as 1970 or 1990 or 2000. We are not using leased telephone lines and teletrac or telerate green screens.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2006.20120809.TrdQteCnt.3.png Size: 29 KB
  • #26
  • Oct 26, 2021 3:19am Oct 26, 2021 3:19am
There is no volatility in the spot Forex market major currency pairs for the past 9 months. There is simply no opportunities in the market for intraday trading or for scalping in the forex market as of now. Can anyone tell why are markets so low when its come to volatility and when we will see good volatility in the markets for intraday trading or for scalping?
  • #27
  • Oct 26, 2021 8:15pm Oct 26, 2021 8:15pm
Quoting Hardandsmart
There is no volatility in the spot Forex market major currency pairs for the past 9 months. There is simply no opportunities in the market for intraday trading or for scalping in the forex market as of now. Can anyone tell why are markets so low when its come to volatility and when we will see good volatility in the markets for intraday trading or for scalping?

Volatility defined as how? i dont see a bunch of dojis on a daily chart. that would be no volatility to me.

smaller candles, sure

lower volatility? ok ill buy that. i have picture on here from 2010s when pairs moved 150+ pips a day before the CHF got pegged. times do change but no volatility? comparatively speaking that's very subjective.
  • #28
  • Oct 26, 2021 10:51pm Oct 26, 2021 10:51pm
Quoting hazelj80
{quote} Volatility defined as how? i dont see a bunch of dojis on a daily chart. that would be no volatility to me. smaller candles, sure lower volatility? ok ill buy that. i have picture on here from 2010s when pairs moved 150 + pips a day before the CHF got pegged. times do change but no volatility? comparatively speaking that's very subjective.
While an actual number for volatility might be subjective (unless you’re specifically talking about “historical volatility”, which has a strict definition), Hardandsmart is right: measurements you take now will (statistically speaking) be lower than 9 months ago whichever method you use. Your method (the number of “dojo”s) is just wrong BTW - I can construct an entire time series of only “doji”s that has a higher degree of price fluctuation compared to another time series of just non-“doji”s.

Every trader I know in the industry is eagerly awaiting (and praying for) the return of some volatility.
  • #29
  • Oct 26, 2021 11:28pm Oct 26, 2021 11:28pm
volatility might be subjective (unless you’re specifically talking about “historical volatility”, which has a strict definition), Hardandsmart is right: measurements you take now will (statistically speaking) be lower than 9 months ago whichever method you use. Your method (the number of “dojo”s) is just wrong BTW - I can construct an entire time series of only “doji”s that has a higher degree of price fluctuation compared to another time series of just non-“doji”s. Every trader I know in the industry is eagerly awaiting (and praying for) the return of some volatility.[/quote/]

if an intraday bar moves an average of 89 pips. Why is that no one can take 10? 20? And retain it? It's because they're swing trading on higher TFs
  • #30
  • Oct 26, 2021 11:51pm Oct 26, 2021 11:51pm
Quoting AlgerianGuy
{quote} While an actual number for volatility might be subjective (unless you’re specifically talking about “historical volatility”, which has a strict definition), Hardandsmart is right: measurements you take now will (statistically speaking) be lower than 9 months ago whichever method you use. Your method (the number of “dojo”s) is just wrong BTW - I can construct an entire time series of only “doji”s that has a higher degree of price fluctuation compared to another time series of just non-“doji”s. Every trader I know in the industry is eagerly...
Add me to that list.

Many days recently, the London session has been a major disappointment to trade. Even the Asia session has been better on some days. It has forced me to trade the sweet spot of volatility which is the London / New York cross over period only.

BTCUSD looks enticing now I must admit.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #31
  • Oct 27, 2021 12:23am Oct 27, 2021 12:23am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Add me to that list. Many days recently, the London session has been a major disappointment to trade. Even the Asia session has been better on some days. It has forced me to trade the sweet spot of volatility which is the London / New York cross over period only. BTCUSD looks enticing now I must admit.

Noticed same, mostly have been trading JPY and AUD pairs during this month. Not usually trade server time 11.00-14.30
Now have to watch that time also, and try to get pips which are offered.
  • #32
  • Oct 27, 2021 2:29am Oct 27, 2021 2:29am
Quoting AlgerianGuy
{quote} While an actual number for volatility might be subjective (unless you’re specifically talking about “historical volatility”, which has a strict definition), Hardandsmart is right: measurements you take now will (statistically speaking) be lower than 9 months ago whichever method you use. Your method (the number of “dojo”s) is just wrong BTW - I can construct an entire time series of only “doji”s that has a higher degree of price fluctuation compared to another time series of just non-“doji”s. Every trader I know in the industry is eagerly...
Is the volatility so low in the spot forex because of the very low interest rates of the major central banks?
  • #33
  • Oct 28, 2021 4:57am Oct 28, 2021 4:57am
Quoting hazelj80
{quote} I can tell you that the only thing that changes with any market is volatility when people say things have changed it means volatility has changed because the reason why people enter that's multiple reasons but have the sessions changed? No the only thing that ever changes with forex or any kind of market is volatility if you don't have volatility it's hard to trade certain things cause you can't make money from a "flat market" but pairs still move move than 60 pips a day on a 30 day average so there's some money to be made. People have gone...

I agree with everything you write.
  • #34
  • Edited 7:49pm Oct 29, 2021 2:53pm | Edited 7:49pm
Quoting Hardandsmart
{quote} Is the volatility so low in the spot forex because of the very low interest rates of the major central banks?
no, not exactly

its partly because crypto bros love trading cryptos on a CFD . that swings like 3-5% a day forex USED TO move 150+ in the early 2010s before i went on an 8 yr hiatus and focused on my job and family. i have pictures in here proving that. is the market untradable? no not exactly. youre just not going to get those explosive London moves as much.

that and international trade has slowed way the F&%! down because of the shipping and logistics backlog. no exchanging as much.
  • #35
  • Nov 9, 2021 8:36am Nov 9, 2021 8:36am
Quoting lengendff
From this year July onwards. What works last year, does not work anymore now. I think the world economy is recovering from covid 19. Anyone feels the same?
You are right! Markets change all the time.

You need to adapt to new scenarios and update your strategies portfolio.
Always ready to help
  • #36
  • Dec 19, 2021 10:05am Dec 19, 2021 10:05am
IMHO Forex hasn't changed a lot, it just has less movement than the stock market or indices.

I'm now (since 2021) trading a lot SPX (sometimes DOW and Nasdaq too).
The trading conditions & leverage are quite the same as in FX, but the volatility or movement vs spread is 8-16 times higher.

A quick comparison:

https://abload.de/img/movementcomparisonh2jto.png

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 63 KB

SPX moves so much during the US sessions, like 200-1000 "pips" up and down.
When there is a lot of movement, there is also a lot of opportunity.
  • #37
  • Dec 19, 2021 2:00pm Dec 19, 2021 2:00pm
Quoting 4for4
{quote} The HFT might make the trends changed faster or hold longer, but the fact that the market keeps on trending up and down alternately is never changed ... Btw, the forex market keeps on growing to around $7-Trillion a day now ...


Market is either trending up, trending down or Ranging/sideways.
Market either has high volatility, low volatility or its choppy (smaller/medium sized candle bodies with longer wicks).
Grit; Knowledge; Right Mindset; All you need to overcome. KIS!
  • #38
  • Dec 19, 2021 2:41pm Dec 19, 2021 2:41pm
Quoting The-Flipper
IMHO Forex hasn't changed a lot, it just has less movement than the stock market or indices. I'm now (since 2021) trading a lot SPX (sometimes DOW and Nasdaq too). The trading conditions & leverage are quite the same as in FX, but the volatility or movement vs spread is 8-16 times higher. A quick comparison: https://abload.de/img/movementcomparisonh2jto.png {image} SPX moves so much during the US sessions, like 200-1000 "pips" up and down. When there is a lot of movement, there is also a lot of opportunity.
I figured if the gbpjpy moves 100+ a day, you probably could consistently take 25 in average. Some day will be more or less obviously

I've been playing around with concepts like this for a few weeks and different methods of technical entry.


I'm just working on it a little. We'll see in 2022 as I'm done testing stuff out for the year.
  • #39
  • Dec 20, 2021 4:34am Dec 20, 2021 4:34am
Quoting lengendff
From this year July onwards. What works last year, does not work anymore now. I think the world economy is recovering from covid 19. Anyone feels the same?
I agree. For several years, the price reacted well to the support and resistance, but now the price behavior has become unknown and more difficult. Has the behavior of traders changed?
  • #40
  • Dec 20, 2021 8:30pm Dec 20, 2021 8:30pm
Quoting hadi07
{quote} I agree. For several years, the price reacted well to the support and resistance, but now the price behavior has become unknown and more difficult. Has the behavior of traders changed?
Please tell me you support and resistance definition. You have only time, open, close high and low data available. How he world you see support and resistance and how the world can this nonsense work at all? Nothing changed. It has never worked, it does not work, and will never work.
Observer effect
0 traders viewing now