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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #14,681
  • Oct 14, 2021 4:28pm Oct 14, 2021 4:28pm
Guys,

I do not mean this to be negative, I am a new trader and been having okay results, so far..just worried we are picking up pennies in front of a steam roller, this is not a shot at this method, but simply the retail trading world.

Where is our "edge" and who is on the other side of our trades? This is zero sum, we win, somebody loses, we lose, somebody else wins.

If it is the institutions / market makers who create the liquidity are on the other side, then how do we have a long term edge in the market against them?

I realize what are we essentially doing is trading the trend, but if the trend is subjective,

I guess I am wondering, where is the data that we can take confidence in that we truly are making +EV moves?

Like if Strat (seems legit and I have no doubt he is profitable) trades 1% of his account, his equity curve would look different than if I traded the same exact same way (entires and exits same position) but only with only 0.75% of my account, his equity curve would have more drawdown.

Maybe, ph2lsl (just see his name browsing the fourm as I write this) he trades identical (entries and exits) but he uses 2.5% of his account and he goes broke... although Strat and I are + money during the sample... how do we know what the optimal bet size is?

If Expected Value =

(Percentage we win * amount we win) - (Percentage we lose * amount we lose)

How do we know?

Sorry, this is not a shot at the methods of this topic, but just more of a noob trying to figure out what the numbers truly say about our trading the FX market in general
  • #14,682
  • Oct 15, 2021 6:02am Oct 15, 2021 6:02am
Quoting ph2lsl
{quote} 1.36296 its my resistence I enter acording of how my rsistence its draw your resistence its diferent then my, its more lower maybe your resistence its right and my resistence incorect if this trade its a lose for me its how we see zones and I seen it lower and this make my entry so i did not sell in suport, I sell from resistence at least how Im drew it thanck you for input and your help bytheway I seen V botom like ordinary retrace to resistence
So you didnt learn anything from my reply... well...I dont care..will stop replying..
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #14,683
  • Oct 15, 2021 9:31am Oct 15, 2021 9:31am
Suran,

Your comments and insight are always welcome so please don't stop posting based on one individual. Your call on the GU was spot on.
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  • #14,684
  • Edited 11:46am Oct 15, 2021 9:41am | Edited 11:46am
Took a short on gold at EOD yesterday based on worker spinning top doji at the 200 and BRN 1800,
Soft target was bottom of the shadow which is the red line on the lower timeframe chart.
When I got up this morning price had moved down nicely through the night so I closed half the trade and moved stop to BE.
Watched the lower time frames for a while and decided to close the trade on the M15 after the big bearish candle that closed just below the bottom of the worker shadow.
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  • #14,685
  • Oct 16, 2021 8:23am Oct 16, 2021 8:23am
Strat shadow combined with BG fib on worker
Could have traded it using worker or any lower time frame
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  • #14,686
  • Oct 16, 2021 8:28am Oct 16, 2021 8:28am
EURUSD looking interesting to me - big boss down trending since June, WWC bearish and the daily chart now showing two consecutive shooting stars.



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  • #14,687
  • Oct 16, 2021 10:30am Oct 16, 2021 10:30am
Quoting darrelf
EURUSD looking interesting to me - big boss down trending since June, WWC bearish and the daily chart now showing two consecutive shooting stars. {image}
Hope you not trading it live
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Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #14,688
  • Oct 16, 2021 1:12pm Oct 16, 2021 1:12pm
Quoting Suran
{quote} Hope you not trading it live {image}
Thank you Suran. No set-up so no trade for me. That bullish daily candle on the 13th was pretty significant as your chart shows by the 4H's - it almost engulfed the previous 5 daily candles! I'll be watching the next days and weeks as the two failed attempts to push up may lead to the bears getting their trend back in order.
  • #14,689
  • Oct 16, 2021 11:03pm Oct 16, 2021 11:03pm
"I like to know about areas, I am not interested in single prices.We dont play based on a single price.We play based on areas..."

These are exact words by a big commercial Bank player himself..... Support and Resistance levels are not a single price line.. those are levels..
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #14,690
  • Oct 16, 2021 11:31pm Oct 16, 2021 11:31pm
Quoting Suran
"I like to know about areas, I am not interested in single prices.We dont play based on a single price.We play based on areas..." These are exact words by a big commercial Bank player himself..... Support and Resistance levels are not a single price line.. those are levels..
Some draw a price line with the understanding that it represents an area or range. Some draw a rectangle outlining what they think is that area or range.

" you say potayto and I say pothato "
  • #14,691
  • Oct 16, 2021 11:46pm Oct 16, 2021 11:46pm
Quoting Lou
{quote} Some draw a price line with the understanding that it represents an area or range. Some draw a rectangle outlining what they think is that area or range. " you say potayto and I say pothato "
It is to people who thinks its a single line...if you know its an area then dont bother about it...
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #14,692
  • Oct 17, 2021 10:53am Oct 17, 2021 10:53am
Quoting Suran
{quote} So you didnt learn anything from my reply... well...I dont care..will stop replying..
why you angry on me?
I said in apreciation
thanck you for input and your help

I also try explain why I enter trade
I enter acording of how my rsistence its draw
your resistence its diferent then my, its more lower
so i did not sell in suport, I sell from resistence
bytheway I seen V botom like ordinary retrace to resistence

I even agreed you maybe its right and Im not corect
maybe your resistence its right and my resistence incorect if this trade its a lose for me
  • #14,693
  • Oct 18, 2021 4:29am Oct 18, 2021 4:29am
Quoting ph2lsl
{quote} why you angry on me? I said in apreciation thanck you for input and your help I also try explain why I enter trade I enter acording of how my rsistence its draw your resistence its diferent then my, its more lower so i did not sell in suport, I sell from resistence bytheway I seen V botom like ordinary retrace to resistence I even agreed you maybe its right and Im not corect maybe your resistence its right and my resistence incorect if this trade its a lose for me
why you angry on me?

I am not angry with you.. I am just frustrated with you thats all...

I said in apreciation thanck you for input

I may not need or expect apreciation from anybody. I am just coming here to give something back.thats all. But little apreciation would be nice..cos I am also human..

So back to that post again...(see how much effort I have to make you understand a simple thing i wanted to tell you.. may be my english might not that good.. )

how my resistence its draw your resistence its diferent then my, its more lower

Did I ever mentioned about a particular PRICE level? I just droped a line in the Big boss support region so that I can explain you (BTW did you see my last two posts? it was for you). rather than trying to understand the core of what I am trying to tell you ...you just comparing where my exact suppot level is..just tell me what have you learn from my previous reply? may be its a useles post..

by the way I seen V botom like ordinary retrace to resistence

If you seen V bottom in worker at important support level in big boss what does it tell you? what do you know about a V bottom? does it tell you to trade in to it?on top of that when you see price rejection in worker candle? Has Strat ever tell you to do it? I dont think so.seems like you need to read more..

All I can see most of you people doing here now is ......you see price retraced back to strat shadow and see some resistance levels near then .....volaa ..you have a trade....... in your head you already decided your direction.. then all you have to do is to find (or create )some other reason to back up the decision.then even when you see many other reasons against your trade that just doesnt matter.cos you are just blind now ...Dont you? Easy way to blow up your account.
Strat shadow is a great tool ..only if you know how to use it..otherwise it will be detrimental to your trading account

Even when some crappy trader like me comes and shows you some other signs against your trade then you giving him plenty of others reasons why you traded it..


I will ask you again What you learn form my post? no need to tell me ..just ask your self..what have you learn



May be I will piss off ..which easier for me...might save my time..
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #14,694
  • Oct 18, 2021 11:30am Oct 18, 2021 11:30am
Quoting darrelf
{quote} Thank you Suran. No set-up so no trade for me. That bullish daily candle on the 13th was pretty significant as your chart shows by the 4H's - it almost engulfed the previous 5 daily candles! I'll be watching the next days and weeks as the two failed attempts to push up may lead to the bears getting their trend back in order.

"I'll be watching the next days and weeks as the two failed attempts to push up may lead to the bears getting their trend back in order."


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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What were you saying? ..............Did I say that I am going to buy the dips..or may be I am going to buy from the sellers who selling the pins.... my bad..may be next time
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #14,695
  • Oct 19, 2021 3:22am Oct 19, 2021 3:22am
Quoting Suran
{quote} "I'll be watching the next days and weeks as the two failed attempts to push up may lead to the bears getting their trend back in order." {image} What were you saying? ..............Did I say that I am going to buy the dips..or may be I am going to buy from the sellers who selling the pins.... my bad..may be next time

Nice one Suran! Grab those pips!

Yes, I imagine a few sold on those pins alone without looking at the market structure...
  • #14,696
  • Edited 4:52pm Oct 19, 2021 4:38pm | Edited 4:52pm
Quoting Suran
{quote} Did I ever mentioned about a particular PRICE level? I just droped a line in the Big boss support region so that I can explain you (BTW did you see my last two posts? it was for you).

where I say in my reply its line and not zone? look below how was my reply
its how we see zones and I seen it lower and this make my entry

1.33534 was my suport zone who I talked about
and resistence 1.36296
my entry was not because it was just strat shadow and wcc
it was PASR because I enter in beob at resistence 1.36296

Quoting Suran
{quote} If you seen V bottom in worker at important support level in big boss what does it tell you? what do you know about a V bottom? does it tell you to trade in to it?.
I explain I seen v botom like retrace up in downtrend and then wait for price action at resistence to entry sell until suport 1.33534
I didnt knew at that time you said its v botom because I didnt came to check posts until my trade was lost
I dont come everyday here for read reply because my job
I just come when I can so I didnt seen your post to change my mind and realize its v botom
so you upset for nothing although your intention was good like you wanted help me
and I apreciate but you still upset
  • #14,697
  • Oct 19, 2021 4:40pm Oct 19, 2021 4:40pm
euraud sell in worker beeb
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  • #14,698
  • Oct 19, 2021 11:18pm Oct 19, 2021 11:18pm
Quoting ph2lsl
{quote} where I say in my reply its line and not zone? look below how was my reply its how we see zones and I seen it lower and this make my entry 1.33534 was my suport zone who I talked about and resistence 1.36296 my entry was not because it was just strat shadow and wcc it was PASR because I enter in beob at resistence 1.36296 {quote} I explain I seen v botom like retrace up in downtrend and then wait for price action at resistence to entry sell until suport 1.33534 I didnt knew at that time you said its v botom because I didnt came to check...

1.33534 was my suport zone

So 1.33534 is a support zone for you? Its just a single price for me. thats what my little bitty brain telling me..

Do you think how much area might a big boy commercial might work on his trade entry? look at below chart... all this green area might be big boy entry area which they gonna play with your orders and build his big order... thats 160 pips zone man... and you still think 1.33534 is a support ZONE ? no wonder why most of the retail blowing up their accounts

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Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #14,699
  • Oct 20, 2021 9:57am Oct 20, 2021 9:57am
DOW

Smart money targeting Weekly Highs

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #14,700
  • Oct 20, 2021 12:04pm Oct 20, 2021 12:04pm
DOW

Smart Money ran out of gas approaching Weekly High

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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