outlook for price action

Appreciate the ensightful analysis. I am new to some of the terminology and was wondering what you ment in regards to Eur/Usd when you said hit head on descending TL resistence a picture perfect pin bar. Also I have attached a couple of eur/usd charts for daily and weekly. There seemed to be a correlation with other days and weeks. See Daily

Thanks Tom

Here is a weekly

thank you Seeking Light for posting despite so much inconvenience. Hope you feel a lot better now. Keep it up!

Hi,
I meant this one, see attached chart. Thanks for all you guys' wishes and warm comments, I'm happy to see people care about others.

Wishing you all good luck trading this week and my best regards,

SeekingLight

Hi, sorry for posting this a bit late. Seems EJ already jumped the gun as everyone was scared of pro-Yen jawboning which turned out unwarranted and London is now compensating this already.


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FXNotes for 19.11.2006

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EURUSD
Weekly Bar: I4B (by only 10 pips)
Daily Bar: No clear bar setup. Engulfing, but Open/Close within prior bar.
Analysis:
Arriving at the top of 1.2910/40 - 1.2470 consolidation range we have been inside of since May, EURUSD once again stalled and faltered. Look for 1.2880 to cap, loss of 1.2750 could extend to 1.2640. Loss of 1.2640 threatens consolidation range low again.
A close above 1.2900 could rally things higher, but look for signs of stalling between 1.2910-1.3.


USDCHF
Weekly Bar: I4B by 5-6 pips. Inside bar either way.
Daily Bar: BEOB by 1 pip of close being lower.
Analysis:
USDCHF hit the descending trendline coming from the 13th October high and sold off a solid 110 pips. Since we are in a descending channel and broke below prior rising channel support, look for a break of 1.2340 to confirm further downward motion. 1.2300 / 1.2260 / 1.2190 / 1.2140 areas of support. Keep an eye on 1.2188 as loss of this could prove critical and could see a look at 1.1830.
Should we break to the upside, watch 1.2560 and 1.2640 resistance.
Close and basing above 1.2750 would put us between 1.3275 and 1.2750, however this scenario seems highly unlikely. Near term range could possibly be 1.2190-1.2750, alternatively 1.2640 minor range.


EURCHF
Weekly Bar: Stunted bullish bar/close to a bad pin bar.
Daily Bar: Bearish pin bar but close is below prior days range.
Analysis:
Considering the prior day was already an inside bar and the move above 1.6000 did not hold, we might just see this selloff continue without so much as a second glance above 1.5965.
Target 1.5858 for a tight range and basing for a retry higher, if that fails 1.5800 / 1.5750.
Should 1.5920 hold again, we might be in for another run higher.
Keep in mind these are pretty lofty levels either way.


GBPUSD
Weekly Bar: Not a good bearish bar / close at the prior weeks low.
Daily Bar: Bullish outside bar.
Analysis:
1.8840-60 toggle / support held and pivoted things back higher again after an inside bar of indecision and a second retest. We are now sitting at the prior week's range low and could possible return to that. However, 1.8950-75 holds resistance and we might see whippy action until a decisive outcome is established. 1.9030 / 1.9100 next higher resistance.
Loss of 1.8860 should see 1.8750 support retested, 1.8630 below that.


EURJPY
Weekly Bar: Doji / Neutral bar. Open and close almost identical(7 pips).
Daily Bar: Disjointed bearish bar.
Analysis:
Price has been a mess. Clearly 151.45 has proven too tough resistance to break for now, but 150.60 and 150.80 have provided support as well. This narrow range suggests that we should see a decision to one side soon, but beware. A potential fake out lower to 150.25 could reverse and rally to make a new high at 151.60-70. The lower alternative to this is 149.60 which holds a high potential for reversal back higher.
A loss of this very key level risks a return to 147.60-75 support.


USDJPY
Weekly Bar: Not quite a neutral or inside bar, low 5 pips lower than prior week, high inside prior week.
Daily Bar: Not quite a bearish outside bar, open and close within prior bar.
Analysis:
USJPY has been ranging lately and unable to move below 117 / 116.60 support, nor above 118.30-60 resistance. On a move higher look out for 118.90 to provide more resistance ahead of 119.30-50.
Support at 116.15, 115.40-75 key.


AUDUSD
Weekly Bar: Bullish pin bar into 38.2% retracement and 0.7625 PP.
Daily Bar: Open/Close within prior bar, same low. Stopped shy of 0.7694 PP.
Analysis:
AUDUSD seems to be suggesting it's done it's part correcting and is ready to go higher again.
However, as it has failed to move decisively back over 0.7700 to reattempt the 0.7767 high, keep a close eye on it as loss of 0.7625 could bring it back down to 0.7560 again.


XAUUSD / Gold
Weekly Bar: I4B
Daily Bar: Not a pin nor bullish bar. Open/close within prior, low within prior range.
Analysis:
Gold has perhaps shown most obviously what is troubling FX currently: lack of direction.
Having managed a climb back over 600-606$, it stalled only 30$ higher at 636$ and has since been ranging from 612-630$. Possibly this range might expand to 606-640$ and run into resistance from thereon. Gold bulls might be a bit more cautious this time around after the fatal selloff we saw earlier this year.

With the Gbp/Usd having a bullish daily bar what do we look for in regards to a break out. Currently it has been channeling between 1.8960 (Friday"s High was 1.8966) and 1.8931 (1.8935 is 23.6 fib retracement of Friday's high and low. The previous weeks pivot point is 1.8977.

On the Euro weekly what does I4b mean by 10 pips only. I have started reading the James 16 chart on page 35 forwards and 83 backwards.

Hi...
Did cable just open 100 pips higher? Oh my...

Anyway, here's the outlook, although there isn't that much to say, really, is there?

Calling s/r levels is feeling a bit stupid lately as a lot are clustering...need to refine that at some point.

EJ went pretty much according to plan as written below as well.

Good luck with your trading!

SeekingLight

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FXNOTES 26.11.2006

EURUSD
Weekly: Bullish bar.
Daily: Bullish bar.
Analysis:
We're finally out of the 500 pip range we were stuck in since April. We will either see the EURCHF fate now, which is a stalling and correction, or we could hold a test of breakout area around 1.2940-80 and base above it and establish a new higher range. Since the american market was basically on hold, we could see a joining of the frenzy or a reversal.
A lower support is at the 38.2% which is 1.2870, 50% falls on 1.2800. Look for clues at or near these levels for weakness or renewed buying should we come back here.


USDCHF
Weekly: Bearish bar.
Daily: Bearish bar.
Analysis:
We are now in the lower range of USDCHF support for 2006. Not since June have we been this low and if the move were to catch on, we could make new lows for 2006 real quick. 1.2038 has some support, 1.915, 1.1868, 1.1696 more. 1.1479 below that. Immediate resistance lies at 1.2180-90, 1.2360 higher up and then 1.2385-1.2400. Same comments as for EURUSD apply.


EURCHF
Weekly: Bearish bar. (last weeks bad pin seems to have activated after all)
Daily: Hit TL support and might be almost a pin bar.
Analysis:
The bounce from TL support was weak, but there nonetheless. Target 1.5858 didn't hold and turned into resistance on the descent, near 1.5800 and TL seems to have paused it for now. Whether or not this support holds we will see soon. If a return above 1.5858 is seen, this could signal a return back up a bit.
Stay wary though, we could be in for a renewed break lower and have this move lower arrive somewhere near / just under 1.5600 in the medium term.


GBPUSD
Weekly: Bullish bar.
Daily: Bullish bar.
Analysis:
As already written in the last FXNotes, key toggle at 1.8860 held and pushed price back up. Interim minor resistance at 1.8960 turnd to support once we closed above it and was the starting ground for a move some 390 pips higher to roughly the 127.2% Fib of the prior range of 1.8515-1.9177 which resides near 1.9350.
Whether this is just a station on the way higher or if we're due a major correction is still uncertain.
Please note we closed right on March 2005 highs. Going from this, resistance would be at 1.9360 which just stopped us, 1.9500 and 1.9550. 1.9600 next. Prices at these levels are probably likely to come under political scrutiny soon.


EURJPY
Weekly: Bullish engulfing candle / outside bar.
Daily: Bullish bar.
Analysis:
Well well well. Against all political pressure and jawboning, EJ has once again gone and made new highs.
If this weren't from a period of absence of one of the biggest markets, the 151-151.15 area would probably make a good long entry opportunity. Considering that > 150.00 prices in EJ have been a political issue before, but not as aggressively handled as many have thought, the issue still remains tricky.
If you're bold, go with what price tells you, if you are wary of intervention, steer clear of this one.
Please note that what unfolded was exactly what I tried to warn of last time:
"A potential fake out lower to 150.25 could reverse and rally to make a new high at 151.60-70."
We ended up cutting the descent short a bit at 150.35 and made our high just as expected at 151.73.


USDJPY
Weekly: Bearish bar.
Daily: Bad bearish bar.
Analysis:
Oddly enough, after first exhibing more signs of strength, the Yen is now seemingly the first to start wavering again. This might also stem from the crosses, but it is something worth noting nonetheless.
We broke out and landed right on our previously mentioned key support area, at 115.40-75. 150.59 was the low made. We broke below trendline support which had been holding us previously and we might see this descent go all the way to 113.35. Stations of minor support on the way start at 115.00 from 00 digit and TL support as well as 161.8% range fib extension, could extend as far as 114.75. 114.25 has some more, then the next real important level is 113.35 as a toggle for a possible descent lower or to contain price is prior above 113 range.
Resistance at former support points turned resistance >> 116.15, 116.80, 117.15-30, 118.15-30.


AUDUSD
Weekly: Bullish Bar.
Daily: Bullish Bar.
Analysis:
AUDUSD did what it signalled last week: it rose. A last touch at the former descending trendline resistance now turned support at 0.7675, also near 23.6% fib and some of June/Julys weekly highs, and off it went.
Resistance came in right at the May high of 0.7790 and this is where we sit now.
We have not closed above it yet, so caution is warranted as with all other pairs.
As we do, expect this area to become support and a challenge of 0.7860, above that 0.7940.
Should we fall back into the prior range, supports are 0.7700, 0.7670, 0.7615, 0.7590.


XAUUSD
Weekly: Bullish bar.
Daily: Bullish bar.
Analysis:
Seems the direction has been found for now. The I4B broke to the upside and made a new high near 640$ for now. If we can swing it over this, 650$ / 654$ / 660$ / 675$ are the next areas of resistance.
Supports should be 612$/607$/604$.

Hi,
I don't think I will be making an extra FXNotes for this week/month.
All around are simply bullish/bearish bars for anything, really.
One exception is AUDUSD (pin bar) and Gold, so we might be seeing first signs of exhaustion from this rally the coming week.
Don't fight the trend, but let it signal you when it's over, too.
I'm going to focus on AUDUSD and wait for the others to develop.

Good luck, I hope someone was smart(or "stupid" in a good way) and skilled enough to ride a few hundred of these pips.

Best wishes,

SeekingLight

Hi.
Today is going to have a reduced version, for two reasons.

One is - I am starting to realize that analysis will not replace the actual trading. It does help to give a general frame of reference, but the actual daily trades and trading reactions seem to be more important.
And that boils down to psychological factors, not just technical analysis.

Two - it's simply very time consuming and lately it's become a bit less fascinating to attempt the outguessing of the market beforehand.
Why?
Because there's really no need. All over the forum "fundamentalists" and TA fans alike keep on trying to predict this and predict that, give gazillions of reasons....and half end up being right and half end up being wrong.
The simple solution still remains: Trade what you see, not what you think.
It's on everyone's chart.

So no matter how nicely I'll lay out things here, if the market is not in the mood for it, then it will just do the opposite, BUT it will always give clues as to what it's doing, simply by moving.
Maybe it's just a case of moving on, but since I've done this mainly for myself, I view this as a good sign and hope that these are all evolutionary steps that may eventually lead me to consistent trading success.

Discipline, endurance and persistence are everything.

My best wishes and good luck to all of you,

SeekingLight



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FXNOTES 10.12.2006

General Remarks:
After a strongly trending week of dollar selloff, we seem to have hit a first line of defense and insecurity for the dollar bears, as all of last week was corrective in nature.
Even though the initial reaction to the NFP result caused an anti-dollar spike, dollar buyers suddenly swooped back in out of the blue and sold off 20% of the recent 7 week upmove in the EURUSD in a single day.
This might not bode well for dollar shorts - but it may also just be collective profit taking as the former high made proved too much to handle after some okay dollar figures went out over the newswires during the week.



EURUSD
Weekly: Made a bearish bar after gapping higher first.
Daily: Bearish outside bar ( faked out the IB high first, then broke it low).

Analysis:
For the dollar bears - look for signs of an end to this correction near 1.3114 - 1.3155, under that expect a deeper correction, possibly all the way down to 1.2900-1.2945.
Dollar bulls - wait for a return near the 1.3250 - 1.3275 level for attempts of small shorts from thereabouts.



USDCHF
Weekly: Bullish Bar.
Daily: Bullish outside bar ( faked out the IB low first, then broke it high).

Analysis:
Inverted to the EURUSD as always. 1.885 support held and catapulted price back over 1.2000.
This is exactly on the 61.8% fib retracement from the 1.1300 - 1.3250 rise.
Should we reclaim this level for good and return above 1.2270 / 1.2300 handle, then we might see a continued recovery of the dollar all the way up to 1.3760.
To get long, watch price movement near 1.1985 / 1.1965 / 1.1930 for signs of reversal long in case of a retrace.
To get short dollar watch for a confirmed breach of the 1.1830-1.1885 support area, with 1.1725 being the next big hurdle to take as the .786 retracement to be broken. Extends to roughly 1.1670 support.
Undearneath that look for a retest of the November 2004 lows at 1.1360 and lower.


GBPUSD
Weekly: Bearish bar / Inside bar.
Daily: Bearish outside bar.

Analysis:
Cable has been soft all week and is now facing 200 points of possible support lines.
We already reached the 23.6% retracement and it looks likely we could see 1.9340 at the 38.2% as well.
1.9180 at 50% holds some more support.
Expect 1.9610 - 1.9675 to have resistance on a retrace, around 1.9715 should be the crucial pivot here.
Play your strategy accordingly.