outlook for price action

Hi,

lately I've taken to writing a sort of outlook for price action on daily bars and considering the effort that goes into it, I thought it was a shame nobody else got anything from it. I'm going to post todays example just to see if people think it's utter crap or if it gives them something to think about. It includes short term as well as long term outlook and I know very well that it is hybris as well as common practice to predict where price will go, but it is something that I strive to learn and master, so I can't really get any sort of negative feedback by posting this, as the fact that what I am doing will continue would remain unchanged no matter what. So I'm also free to share without regret.

Here's a sample, please feel free to comment on the style as well as the content. I'm aiming more towards a critique of the text and the content than hearing contrarian or alternative views(which doesn't mean you can't post those as well). I'm very much intrigued by the Analyst profession and a venture into this sort of territory, which is very much intermeshed with the speculative trader.


Edit: I am on GMT+2 so all analysis is based on my daily close at midnight which is EST 18:00.

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Outlook from day's end analysis, 27th September 2006

USDCHF
Bar: miniature bearish pin bar
Could possible be the end of a corrective wave up and the start of the next bigger wave down to 1.2200. 1.2470 would have to hold, below 1.2400 sees challenge of 1.2350 and 1.2290-1.2275 support.
Above 1.2475 retest 1.2550, then 1.2600 handle.

EURUSD
Bar:I4B
Below 1.2660 constitutes a retest of 1.2630 with a higher chance of breakthrough this time around, alternatively a move past 1.2740 again moves to retest and challenge 1.2830-40
We are currently seeing bulls and bears fighting for control over Euros direction and either of these interim key levels (1.2660 with continuation to ->1.2560->1.2460 vs 1.2830-1.2940) represents a toggle for a respective range boundary test of the 500 pip boundary of 1.2460-1.2940 we have been locked inside of since late April. We closed almost exactly on the 50% middle ground and this explains the indecision seen in the market, as forces are almost at an equilibrium lest there come a shift of balance soon.

EURJPY
Bar: bullish bar
Situation here is similiar to Euro. The range established since August from 147.50 - 150.70 holds and we are currently just a handful of pips above the middle and Price Pivot situated near/around 149.00
While over it look for a retest of 150 and the high, a fall below once again brings 147.70 into view and a break of that could mean a toggle back to 145 or even 140.
Short term: past 149.45 >> 149.80, then 150 and beyond, loss of 149 spells 148.50 and then lower


GBPUSD
Bar: malformed bearish bar
Situation is shaky as 1.8880 interim support has held for now. Loss sees a retest of 1.8740, under that 1.8625 and beyond that 1.8555. Should the established base hold and 1.8960 reclaimed, 1.9000 and a after 1.9080 a retest of the 1.9140 high and beyond might come back into the picture.
Considering the bearish bar and the breach of trendline a further drop is likely unless dollar sentiment turns bearish again.

USDJPY
Bar: Bullish
Having escaped the narrow confines of the 116.10-116.60 range, nippy has managed to claw its way back above 117 and now trades near 117.40. As long as 116.60 support/pivot holds, expect upside and a retest of 118, above 118.30 sees a chance to revisit 119. Be aware that this currency is very political even though influence lately seems to come more from the USD than from the BOJ and officials.
118.70 and 120 are possible fibonacci expansions while former fibonacci retracements and a trendline block the path to 117.70 for now.


AUDUSD
Bar: pin bar
AUDUSD has once again stubbornly rejected a move under 0.7500. It seems almost as if some bigger power is preventing moves lower with an awesome force. The pin is quite small however, but considering the time spent in the 0.7480-0.7580 range things are bound to heat up very soon. Gold back over 600$ will surely have done it's part to rebuild AUDUSD, so look to attempt an escape to the upside with stops at 0.7460, entry preferably at 0.7500 or 0.75490. Be nimble however if 0.7550 doesn't give way nicely things might be coming back fast. Past 0.7580 should have an extra 100 pips in it just as easily as a break of 0.7480.


NZDUSD
Bar: unsuccesful pin bar.
Kiwi has been mistreated any which way after more comments from officials about the hike being planned much later than the market had hoped. Former trendline resistance turned support pivoted matters back around on the first hit, however the decision for direction isn't made just yet. Bearish pressure from the day before with a bearish outside bar puts bears in the front seat and if 0.6530 and 0.6500 gives way, 0.6430 might be seen real fast. 0.6250s next real area of support below.
A move back over 0.6660 could give 0.6720 and above a second look.

EURCHF:
Bar: bullish outside bar, sort of.
EURCHF put in a very unconvincing move higher today and just barely exceeded 1.5800, falling short of 1.5820-30, an area of resistance. Failure to climb back over this level could mean a return to 1.5735 and beyond that 1.5625 and the more important level of support at 1.5500. Over 1.5850 gives way to a renewed attack at 1.5970 and finally the 1.5600 handle.

I think this is a great idea. Furthermore, it will give you an idea as to how well the currencies are moving in relation to eachother. GBP and EUR up versus USD, USD/CHF pair down, Usd/Jpy indication up, etc. Good validation. Also, great for learning. I wanted to reply so I could follow closely.
Good Trading

I hope you keep this up and post around the same time everyday.......it's hard to find this type of analysis (at least from my research) on each pair on the same websites daily.........they often skip (perhaps b/c there is nothing more to say), but keeping everything in one thread will make easy reference.

Thanks,
Jim

PS- as far as quality of content.........I don't see why your analysis would be any less valuable than some of the other stuff available to read in cyberspace? Your summaries do involve some sort of reference to supports and resistance with a little bit of editorial observation, does is not? Keep posting.....

Hi again, just wanted to share my latest attempt, it's still more for myself and practice than actual trading, so bear with me and don't take this stuff too serious.
But I am happy to see price development went pretty much close to what I wrote in my last Analysis, at least for cable, euro and swissy. Pro dollar all the way. Here's the update:

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Weekly Overview:
After an expected pause from the BOE and also expected hike from the ECB, EURGBP got a small boost as interest relations started looking a bit more two-edged, with a hawkish ECB and a tentative BOE statement.
However, even for EURGBP the great turnaround ended up being friday: the big NFP whopper.
The news itself, a lower than expected employment figure, first saw a quick decline of the dollar, when suddenly, seemingly out of nowhere, things reversed and the dollar went on one of it's bigger rampages.
Euro closed 93 pips lower, Cable 88 lower and USDCHF sits 83 pips higher, above the 1.2600 handle.

Individual outlooks:

EURUSD
Bar: Bearish bar, close within lower third. Aiming at 1.2460 in the very near future.

USDCHF
Bar: Bullish bar, close in upper third. Big picture is 1.300 and beyond, near term it has to break 1.2750 first.

GBPUSD
Weekly bar: Inside Bar, smallest of 4. >> Sell a real break of 1.8630 and any rallies back towards it after that.
Daily Bar: Bearish outside bar. Close in the lower third, very low indeed. We barely closed on 1.8702, but we can expect to head on to 1.8630 again and towards 1.8555 on a break of 1.8630. Below this awaits 1.8385 and 1.8200-1.8188. Only a decisive move back over 1.88/1.90 would save cable from it's seemingly inevitable path of descent.

USDJPY:
Weekly bar: Bullish bar, high close.
Daily bar: Bullish bar, high close.
This pair has once again proven a fertile ground for the dollar. The Yen, being the grease in the american economy and deficit management thanks to carry trade, is still on a steady decline. Should this weekly and daily close over 118.30 hold, recommend buying dips to 118.30, 117.50, below 116.60 revert to bearish again.
Above 119.30 should see a retest of 121.30 highs. Be aware that this is a crucial level at which price could bounce a few times before making it past this barrier.


EURJPY:
Weekly bar: not quite a bearish pin bar.
Daily bar: bullish bar, close of bar almost identical to bars high. Suggests continuation.
Very undecided picture.
EJ could very well be headed back to glory over 150, but comments from concerned politicians and MOFs might make this a very ugly pair to trade indeed.
Loss of 149 should see 147.75, which in itself is a good spot to go long from again. A test and rejection from 149.00 also could provide a good chance to buy back in. Stay cautious around 150.30, favor selling tops here or holding longs with a tight stop and expect external jawboning and external factors.


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Personally EJ is lately very much a no trade for me, by far too unexpected turns and trying hard to get back to some semblance of direction.
EURUSD and USDCHF levels are pretty plain on the charts and similiar to what I wrote last time, so rallies to key levels could provide good places to get back into long dollar positions. Nothing's certain yet, but it feels like the dollar is poised for a comeback, for no good fundamental reason other than to prove to the FA people that they should rather learn TA, and fast

Nice work.

Hope you can keep it going.

Thank you


Lou

I'm quite happy to see you guys like the analysis and I personally am amazed that price behavior was just as expected and "predicted" at the levels mentioned in the first post....all the toggles worked and the important levels had corresponding price behavior (pause in front of it / ranging, then penetration and move on to next level).
This is something I personally am very happy to see, because it means my overview is a lot better than my intraday trading
It also means I am getting a sort of a handle on price levels and implications of price movement....
And the outlined strategic points would have suited position trading quite well I feel.

you're on a roll..............give us more!!

Here some stuff for this week. I made this being relatively tired and not taking into account the monthly bar so please bear with me here....

Also I hope nobody takes any of this as a basis to trade. It's meant as a framework, not as a trading recommendation.
Whatever you trade, win or lose is your own responsibility, this post as all others are merely a reflection of my personal opinion and nothing more!

Best regards,

SeekingLight



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FXNOTES as of 15.October 2006

FXNOTES 15.10.2006

EURUSD
Weekly Bar: Bearish Bar. About 50 pips from lows and 38.2% 2006 Upswing fib.
Daily Bar: Bearish outside Bar.
Analysis: Bar patterns suggest continuation, retest of 1.2456-80 lows and on breach a continuation on down to first 50% fib 1.2310 and then 61.8% fib near 1.2170 at 1.2150.
Only minor resistance at 1.2266, 61.8% of the minor upswing.
More support comes in at 78.6% 1.1925 and more support into the 1.1866 area.
Should we return back over 1.2640 and manage a close up there look for either a rapid ascent or a potentially fatal loss and return back lower.
Should take quite something to turn things back around, but do not hesitate to adapt to a change in situation.
Upside resistance initially 1.2630, then 1.2680 / 1.2820-40 / 1.2910-40.



USDCHF:
Weekly Bar: Bullish bar. Close in upper third, barely.
Daily Bar: Bullish bar. No bullish outside bar after bounce from trendline at near 1.2750-65.

Analysis:
Reached potential upside resistance at Trendline. Fell short this time, closed below it. 1.2750 also has price pivot potential.
This bounce back coincides with a daily pin bar in EURCHF which may have been responsible for this temporary Franc boost.
However, we are above 1.2550 and have a weekly as well as daily close above it.
This pretty much sets sights on 1.3064, then 1.3180 once 1.2750 is passed.
Any loss of 1.2550 would mean a retest of 1.2385, a real breach of this a potential descent to 1.2188, then 1.2040.
This could turn out very lethal were it to happen.
Just like EURUSD's 1.2460, 1.2750 for USDCHF might prove a tough nut to crack, but once passed has a continuation potential of 400-700 pips, the larger candidate being USDCHF obviously.


EURCHF:
Weekly Bar: Bullish bar, showing signs of weakness. Close at 38.2%.
Daily Bar: Pin bar.
Analysis: This pin bar reaches into the territory of the last initiated descent from 1.5965.
Seems EURCHF is afraid of approaching the 1.6000 handle, but has no trouble racing to the high 1.5900s repeatedly.
Last 2 days before pin bar showed sideway action, so this is a very two sided situation.
If the pin unfolds, a descent could be stopped early either at the rising supporting trendline near the 1.5900 handle, just around 1.5895, as well as 50% and minor support at 1.5860, more at 1.5835-20 and again at 1.5800.
A breach lower than this is not expected, but a move under 1.5740 could spell another 100 down to 1.5635, then soon 1.5500.
The alternative is a fake break to the downside which immediately turns into an ascent of EURCHF again, passing the 1.6000 handle and moving to near 1.6090 - 1.6150 resistance.
Past 1.6100 could mean another rise to 1.6360, then 1.6570. Political realities aside, that is.



GBPUSD:
Weekly Bar: Bearish bar. Close at roughly lowest 25%.
Daily Bar: Undecided. Open and Close within prior bar, low and high above prior bar.
Analysis:
Oddly enough, even with recent dollar strength we did not see a decisive lower close for cable.
The approach to former support at 1.8630 was sold vehemently and capped cables ascent at 1.8640, but did not manage to beat it to a close below 1.8525.
This presents us with a problematic situation, as bulls and bears seem to be fighting over control.
With Euro and Swissy also near strong barriers, cable might see a similiar struggle, with the risk of tests to both sides and potential fake breaks and following retreats.
However, weekly outlook remains bearish, so it might just have been a temporary reprieve for the pound as the coming week could very well see the move lower.
Targets and lines of support are 1.8385, 1.8315-35, 1.8200. Under 1.8200 is wobbly and has both a chance of moving to 1.7940 as well as seeing a bounce back up.
1.7800 at the latest should have a lot of support and buying interest waiting.
Upside toggles remain the 1.8630 barrier, a close and hold above this could lead to a leap back at 1.8860. Above that 1.9020 and higher is possible.



EURJPY:
Weekly Bar: I4B.
Daily Bar: Undecided. Open and Close within prior bar, low and high above prior bar.
Analysis:
EJ has been in a lingering descent for almost all week. The massive and rapid loss of 150.40 was followed by a just as rapid rejection of 149.00 and we are now seeing pressure applied from both sides.
Keep in mind this is a very political pair as well, so any word might set the match to this powderkeg.
The windup suggests a decisive break to one side soon.
A move below 149.00 has previously spelled at least a retest of 148.25 support, then trendline / lows at 147.90, below that could get very ugly indeed.
147.25, 146.00, 145.25 could provide temporary support.
Upside above 150 could run into the next bigger resistance lines at 152.00 / 154.00 / 156.40 after that.


USDJPY:
Weekly Bar: Bullish bar, high close.
Daily Bar: Undecided. Open and Close within prior bar, low and high above prior bar.
Analysis:
USDJPY has moved out of the dungeons and returned to attack the 120 handle once again. Considering the base it managed to establish above 119.40, it is possible that we could see a move up to retest the December 2005 highs at 121.30.
120.70 has resistance, 122.40 more(potential pivot) and 125.50 should keep a lid on things for now.
Loss of 119.40 could lead to a return to 117.75-45 interim support, then 116.75-10 toggle.
Below that would turn things back bearish with 114.30-10 back in sight. 111.75 below, then 109.25.


AUDUSD:
Weekly Bar: Bullish outside bar, high close.
Daily Bar: Undecided. Open and Close within prior bar, high just above prior high, but low rejected after move to just under fib confluence near 0.7495.
Analysis:
AUDUSD made a surprising jump back over the 0.7500 handle after starting its run with a 4h BUOB which turned into a daily and now weekly BUOB in turn.
This should give a bullish outlook, along with gold moving back towards 600$, but remain wary until 0.7580 is passed. Once past that, expect a retest of 0.7640, then the 0.7700 handle should be next.
0.7750 the next high.
Loss of 0.7500 means a return to test the recent lows, 0.7275 below.


NZDUSD:
Weekly Bar: I4B.
Daily Bar: Undecided. Open and Close within prior bar, low under last two days lows.
Analysis:
After an oh so brief stint above 0.6700 the Kiwi rather forcefully descended back to the 0.6500 handle, shortly flirting with 0.6482.
A renewed attempt at 0.6570 and the 0.6600 handle failed, and this could very well spell weakness that translates into a full descent in the near future.
Another loss of 0.6560 with a close below that isn't immediately by a decisive recovery like the last time could very well spell a move back to 0.6350 and 0.6225 below that.
Under 0.6180 risks a return to 0.6060 and a struggle over 0.6000. A drop below for now seems highly unlikely.
An unexpected return of kiwi strength and move above 0.6660 should be capped first at 0.6880-90 resistance, then 0.6980-95, protecting the 0.700 handle.

This comes a bit late as the situation seems to be either heading pro dollar already or at least correcting a bit, but since I wrote it I thought I might as well post it.
Here's yesterdays attempt at an analysis.

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FXNOTES for 22.10.2006
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EURUSD
Weekly Bar: Bullish bar, possibly double low higher close.
Daily Bar: Two bar high, identical high at 1.2640.
Analysis:
2 weeks ago weekly high was 1.2613, low 1.2483. Last week closed at 1.2618, barely at/over the high before.
The TBH at daily formation suggests a renewed attempt at 1.2640 soon, with a grab at 1.2700 not too far off.
The weekly potential DBLHC suggests bullish pressure, either a last feeble attempt to get back above 1.2700 for good or to fail miserably and crash back down and possibly below 1.2475.
Expect the 1.2680-1.2720 area to be contested and if you are a dollar bull, be ready to sell any first approach of 1.2700.
If the attack proves to be persistent, get out and prepare to adapt to dollar short positions accordingly to situation developtment.
Once a close above 1.2700 holds, expect .618 retracement at 1.2765 to be next resistance, 1.2840 above that.
Any moves over 1.2840 into 1.2880+ territory are either going to be very fragile and would need real potential to attempt a reattack of 1.2940.



USDCHF
Weekly Bar: Bearish bar, shaky. Not quite a DBHLC, 19 pips difference of the highs.
Daily Bar: I4B.
Analysis:
Indecision looms. Where EURUSD seems a bit more dollar short, USDCHF paints a not so clear picture.
Rising trendline support has broken and the descent paused at the 1.2560 pivot.
This is the price level that formerly was the toggle for USDCHFs April/May descent.
Ever since the middle of May USDCHF has slowly risen back from the depths of even below 1.200 and returned back over 850 pips.
Price in the last 4 weeks has almost exclusively been dollar bullish, but marked with sharp rallies that seem to have almost as sharp failures and corrections.
Should USDCHF lose the 1.2560 level, and this seems quite possible currently, one can expect price to move back to lower TL and resistance turned support at/near 1.2445.
A drop and close beneath 1.2400 and consecutively 1.2350 could prove most detrimental and spells a move out of the rising channel USDCHF has established in the last 5 months.

Weekly TL resistance suggests we may have simply hit the top of the channel and are preparing another attack, so be ready in case we see a resurgence of the dollar bulls.
Possibly we are witnessing profit taking on speculative September dollar longs and not the dollar reversal people have been talking about.


GBPUSD
Weekly Bar: Almost DBLHC, lows at 1.8521 last week and 1.8515 the week before. Definitely a VERY bullish bar.
Daily Bar: Bullish bar.
Analysis:
Wow. Seems like the move under 1.8630 has turned out to be a false break and Sterling wants to once again head for the sky.
At least that's how the stubborn upward price behavior of last week felt like.
Pausing only briefly at former support turned resistance at 1.8730, cable's rise has probably come as a surprise to many.
Partial responsibility goes to EURGBP which dropped over 100 pips in October, showing a shift away from the Euro over to Sterling it would seem, perhaps on hopes of seeing another hike from the BOE.
Whatever the reasons, cable is now back over key support levels and seems to be back in bullish gear.
1.8860 is just an inch away and was already almost passed on Friday.
1.8900 should be the next thing to scale over, after which comes already 1.8960 and a revisit of 1.9000/1.9025.
Just a short while ago we faltered trying to climb those mountains, let's see how we fare this time.
We would have to lose 1.8750 for good to return back for another touch of 1.8630, only a direct loss of that leads back to bearish mode.


EURJPY:
Weekly Bar: Bullish Pin bar. Quite a big one and right onto TL support and back up.
Daily Bar: Very bullish bar.
Analysis:
EJ really is a phenomenon. After the idea being bandied about that political views might object with EJ over 150, it has now returned back to these levels once again.
Seems some people are convinced that higher is not a problem at all.
After having dropped off from descending TL resistance, price went all the way down to 148.50, touched rising TL support and now sits just next to the upper TL once again, nearing a break of this narrowing triangle situation.
EJ has shown us where it thinks it shouldn't be, but if it isn't wanted lower by the market, but politicans do not want it much higher either, who will have to give in first?
The current perspective suggests we might take a leap higher, but where we go nobody knows.
Significant levels are 149.90/150.20 immediate resistance, possibly more at 150.60.
Above that numerals and historic levels suggest 151.50 / 152.50, but that remains to be seen.
Below has 149.60 weak support, 149.30-00 more and 148.70-50 has to hold to avoid further descent to 148.30-00.
A close below there could spell more loss down to around 146.60.


USDJPY:
Weekly Bar: Almost DBHLC, highs 119.81 at last week and 119.87 the week before. Not a good bearish bar.
Daily Bar: Barely an I4B by 4-5 pips. Definitely an inside bar.
Analysis:
This pair shows the prevailing ambivalence the clearest. It has moved off the highs near 120, but not succumbed under the former trendline resistance now turned support from weekly that is coming down all the way back from 2002.
Price touched the area of 118-118.30 support and bounced and closed 75 pips higher.
This puts us in the awkward position that general sentiment hints at a short term dollar weakness, but that at least in some pairs dollar support is holding quite well.
This pair of course as the primary carry trade pair has its own reason for being a lot more pro dollar than others, but it still warrants caution as others are at potential barrier and toggle points as well.
Look for price behavior at both 119.30 and 118.00 levels, as a close beyond these should give an indication of where the future of this pair lies.
Below 118 is 117.60-30 support, 116.60 next. Below look for 115.80-50.
Back above 119.30 is the big 120 including trendline resistance. Former high of 121.30-40 should be the next step.
123.85-124.30 has former support turned resistance and fibonacci extension targets.

AUDUSD:
Weekly bar: Bullish bar.
Daily Bar: Imperfect pin bar. Nose protrudes slightly.
Analysis:
As expected AUDUSD put in a bullish week. Price went back only to 0.7490 before continuing on to 0.7600 pretty much unchallenged.
Like noted in my previous analysis this is a likely level of resistance and has proven to be just so.
Price could fall back to 0.7550 or even 0.7500 before moving higher, but one would expect at least one attempt at 0.7650 next resistance before a clear decision on the future path of AUDUSD is made.
Former trendline support turned resistance is also stopping the advance, so price might decide to take a breather before attempting a next push through.
Only a loss of 0.7500 would make a retest of near 0.7400 lows likely, for now watch price behavior near trendline levels.

NZDUSD:
Weekly bar: Bullish bar.
Daily Bar: TBH formation.
Analysis:
Kiwi made it back above rising trendline support after getting squeezed 30-50 pips below temporarily.
Things are now once again looking quite bullish and price seems to just be waiting for another attempt at jumping over 0.6720.
This area also is next resistance, above that 0.6780 and 0.6885 would be the next area of resistance.
Need 0.6675 to hold as bottom once new highs are established above 0.6700 to remain bullish.


Gold:
Weekly: Possibly a doji/bad pin at near/around 0.786 of last swing low.
Daily: Bearish bar back into prior range of 585-600$.
Analysis:
Gold has been a very troubled commodity lately. Just like oil prices it has had to face a rather gruesome selloff, first from 730$ and then again from 675$.
We hit a low at 559$, just 18$ away from June's 541$ low. Were things to drop below these levels once again, we could be in for a very hot winter indeed.
We looked to have escaped descending trendline resistance just as we dropped back under it and closed below 600$ on friday.
This most likely did not cheer up gold bulls, but given the fact that it is still holding well above 580-585$ support perhaps fresh buyers might return come monday.
Do not bet the farm on it however. A loss of 585$ suggests tentative shorts, were we to lose 580$ another run at 570$ and 560$ could be in the cards,
Trendline support comes in at around 555-550$, below that lurks July's mentioned 541$ low and 534$ range support, below that the danger of going back to 491$ fast.
Only a move above 606$ sees a chance at 615-620$, then 636$ and finally 650-652$ resistance again. 675$ past that.

Great work! Hope I can see it everyday.

Thoughts
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Weekend is approaching and I just wanted to perhaps give this thread a bit more prominence as I see people perpetually asking about the future on a daily basis. As I try to outline the whole week, I hope I can provide a good framework to go from.
Not that I am actually worth listening to, as I am not a certified or employed Analyst, but hey, we all love to feed our egos
I also do not recommend taking my advice, trading off of it or having it obscure your own trading. It has been my own fallacy too many times and ruined my trading plenty of times as well. Trade autistically, trade detached =)

But about that ego stroking, let's go do that now for a second, shall we?


We hit 1.2640 to the pip, then moved 114 pips down(a bit under the 1.2560 level which was an important pivot). 100% hit, called 5 days in advance. Price got rescued by a rising trendline and went back over 1.2560.

Also from the 15th:

Compare with todays 1h support line >>> basing around 1.2680 res turned support at the moment. Area around 1.2630-40 was resistance both times.

--


4 days later, here we are Once again, matching levels.

Just taking some examplary excerpts, cable has proven to be equally correct if read properly.

Not honking my own horn, just going over history and comparing with chart so that I can see where I went wrong and what worked out.
Obviously I was way off on some things and on some sentiment, but the sentiment changing levels are what's important. Toggles how I like to call them.
Nobody knows where things will go for sure, but the market DOES give clues what's more likely in an IF THEN ELSE case sort of way.
That's the art of Analysis. (Not that I've mastered it by far, I am not conceited nor bear illusory beliefs. But it is something I do envy and am trying to get better at.)



Looking back
------------
I really like doing this and seeing things unfold so well and I can see why some people can really write great outlooks but fail at trading - the emotion barrier is quite a tough piece of resistance!
Had I just traded my own plan I would have made quite a handsome sum.
As it is, the trader part of me seems to be a seperate entity completely - I am sometimes amazed myself how one part of me sees with clarity the options before me and another is sometimes still a small scared child in face of the monster that is the market. Human beings are so strange yet fascinating.

Oh and if you want to know "how I do it" - James16 group taught me almost everything or rather, it made me realize the things I already knew and solidified them by showing me they were actually valid =)
I look at the charts, listen to what they tell me and spend a lot of time with them. (Sounds like I treat them like children in a way *smiles softly*)


My thanks to James and all those helping out and working with others in the private forum as well as in the public section.

My best wishes to you all and the best of luck with your trading!


SeekingLight

SL, from your posts i gather this has been a beneficial effort and blessing to you. You have done a good job of writing down your thoughts in easily understood outlines. Over time i would think keeping your journal would bring in the pips for you.

Good trading,
Thom

Analysis for the week of November 6th-10th, 2006.

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EURUSD
Monthly: Bullish pin bar, uneven eyes, but implies the move below 1.2630 was rejected in favor of a return above 1.2700.
Weekly: Sort of a bearish pin bar, nose not too long and eyes uneven, may have just been formed due to a temporary exhaustion and above about 1.2620 could still be within corrective bounds for the monthly bullish pin. Didn't close above descending daily TL, but did close above 1.2700.
Daily: Bearish outside bar. Hints at a continuation of the sellof in the short term, above 1.2750 could however tempt longs to return and halt the move lower prematurely.
Analysis:
As is so often the case, longer and shorter term analysis delivers conflicting views. Monthly hints that EURUSD is not wanted below 1.2600, let alone 1.2500.
This suggests that the current descent should stall and return back to a rise before it descends below 1.2600.
Levels to watch are obviously last weeks high at 1.2798, that should it be breached would allow for 1.2840 and 1.2890/1.2900 trendline resistance, 1.2936-40 next.
1.2980-1.3000 has a bit more resistance and then 1.3080 and 1.3140.
Should we move below 1.2680 interim support, watch for action around the 1.2640 toggle which, if we close below here, could put 1.2550 back in sight.
Support at 1.2470-80 lows underneath that.
Short term look to price action near 1.2740 and 1.2660-40 to indicate direction for the immediate future.

USDCHF
Monthly: Bearish pin bar. We are almost at optimal level to get short near 1.2620-30 with stops above 1.2770 for the pin bar.
Weekly: Trendline support has held and caught the descent the first time around as expected at 1.2403. We have a bullish not-a-pin weekly bar with uneven eyes and unevenly proportioned nose.
Daily: Bullish bar, but already with a lowered close after hitting 1.2560 price pivot and retreating.
Analysis:
As monthly suggests, swissy could be in for a downward movement in November. Weekly and daily action isn't convincing enough to warrant hopes for a full Dollar return against the Franc and for now the cautious assumption should be for further dollar weakness.
Price levels to watch for initiating possible short positions on midterm outlook are 1.2620-1.2640 as first area of resistance to the upside, including trendline resistance, and 1.2685 for further former support turned resistance and price resistance.
Near 1.2740 starts to bring the dollar weakness into doubt and above October high of 1.2770 would confirm further Dollar strength. Please keep in mind EURCHF has been trending higher again lately and might exaggerate Dollar bullish moves and diminish Franc positive patterns.

EURCHF
Monthly: Two bar high, 2 pips difference. Also an inside bar.
Weekly: Basically a bullish outside bar.
Daily: Slightly stunted bullish bar.
Analysis:
Signs are all pointing towards a retest and possible passing of the September 1.5967 high. October failed to do so, maybe November will.
We have based pretty well at 1.5860 lately, so 1.5900 should be our "middle ground" and the 1.5967 high are next target to surpass for establishing a new high.
Former weekly prices suggest 1.6020 and 1.6140 as areas of resistance. 1.6320 and 1.6375 above that. Intervention might occur at some point above 1.6000.

GBPUSD
Monthly: Could it be a bullish outside bar?
Weekly: Close is 8 pips too high to be a bearish pin, eyes are uneven, nose is short.
Daily: Bearish outside bar.
Analysis:
Ok, here's a go: we are going up long term, down near term and immediate future we might do a small correction higher to descend a bit more.
Sound fun enough?
Just like in the EURUSD/USDCHF pairs it would seem that Cable has decided to put in a breather as buyers of the recent 600 pip rally have grown a bit weary and are using the post 1.9000 figures to book their profits.
If this current downward correction is to extend it has to pass through 1.8960 support at first, then 1.8920-00 support and at 1.8880-60 things are going to get interesting.
1.8775-1.8880 is roughly the patch where the correction is likely to end if the buyers are to show they are serious. A surprise continuation of the rise could also happen from a harsh 1.8960 rejection and perhaps this is exactly what we have already begun to witness.
However this is a Cable observation, neither EURUSD nor USDCHF have shown their cards just yet and I doubt the Pound as one of the more erratic is about to.
Stay cautiously bearish until one of the mentioned supports shows to hold, then flip to cautiously bullish for a grab at 1.9200.
Keep in mind that there just might be political of fundamental invervention that argues against Sterling approaching the 2.000 mark all too quickly.


EURJPY
Monthly: Well, here's an interesting one. Neither pin nor bearish bar, last month was a mess.
Weekly: Last week suggests a bearish pin bar with an ok long nose and slightly uneven eyes.
Daily: We have had a bullish outside bar after an inside bar and now a bullish bar.
Analysis:
This is as it often is a tough nut.
Daily action says hey I wanna go up, but just hit its head on a descending trendline, weekly says oh no, you're not going anywhere above 150.25, let alone near 150.75 and monthly just doesn't know where it is.
This pair has been heavily talked over and jawboned and it shows. Once left alone it turns back to it's old buoyant nature, but as soon as critical levels are near it shies away again.
For now i'd watch action around 150.00, a descent below should first retest 149.60 and 149.00 supports, 148.20-30 support below that along with rising trendline.
Resistance has already been reached at 150.20 from trendline and price pivot resistance and any approach of 150.40 could be sold with stops above 150.80 for a return back under 150.
Anything much over 150 could for now just be too risky to touch and this has become a very dangerous pair for longer term speculation.


USDJPY
Monthly: Didn't manage an outside bar, but is a normal bullish bar instead.
Weekly: Disjointed bullish pin bar with not too great a nose and way uneven eyes. Just hit trendline resistance.
Daily: Bullish bar.
Analysis:
One of the more confusing pairs. It seems we are headed back higher again, but this would counter Dollar bearish expectations on other pairs.
118.60 holds nearest point of resistance on daily and weekly suggests we might already have hit a spot of resistance just above 118.00.
Look for signs of topping and exhaustion and when the opportunity presents itself attempt tentative shorts down to 117.00 support and a possible breakdown to 116.60 / 116.00-115.90 interim / 115.60-70 support.
Should we hold above 117.75 and exceed 118.30-40 then prepare to turn bullish again, especially once resistance near 118.60 is passed for another run at 120.00.



AUDUSD
Monthly: Bullish outside bar.
Weekly: Almost bearish pin bar, eyes abit uneven and close not quite within previous bar.
Daily: Bearish bar with close slightly above 0.7694 pivot.
Analysis:
Mixed as all others. Monthly suggests Dollar weakness, short term a correction.
Levels to attempt a buy for new highs are 0.7580-0.7550, below that 0.7525-00 has to hold.
A close below 0.7500 would turn things cautiously bearish again, however Gold prices lately suggest this is unlikely.
Should we base above 0.7675 we might see a surprise head start higher from this pair.
0.7625 might be another place to take off from.

Gold/XAUUSD:
Monthly: Bullish pin bar, with a long nose but only slightly protruding.
Weekly: Very bullish.
Daily: Bullish.
Analysis:
Well, what can I say? With the danger of sounding like an echo of the bugs, but: buy Gold. Gold has been a buy ever since it crawled out of its sub-600$ hole and managed to ascend above the 606$ barrier.
As Soon as it did it directly began taking large 10$ strides higher, not even stopped by this months NFP event. After taking a 6$ hit it immediately resurfaced and even closed higher on the day.
Can't get any clearer than this. 627$ resistance is basically taken out, 639$-645$ has a bit more and then 655$. 674$ has the next spot and then there's really not much to see until 715$ and the 730$ high.
Beware however of another overheated meltdown risk and keep in mind that we have not seen a single lower close since the 24th October and that nothing goes in one direction forever.

Is most of your price action based on information from the james 16 group

Hi Tomhen,
yes, it's based on what you can find on the public thread as well as the additional information on the private forum and a lot of my own opinion.

I wouldn't hold the poor James16 folks responsible for my blunders, but yes, James16s price action trading is the foundation of the bar chart interpretation I am attempting
I just try to add an if-then-else element to the price levels and toggles which I believe are like railroad switches for price. This is basically also taught in the private forum.
I highly recommend the public thread which anyone who wants an indicator independent system should read.
Basically anyone who wants to trade should read it, but you only figure that out muuuuch later after having wandered around blind for so long in my case
The private forum has additional info and tutoring/guidance which isn't in the public thread. You can read about it and what the people in it are saying in the public PF niche thread section.

Hope this helps and my best regards to you,

SeekingLight

Correction on the 6-10th November outlook

Misnamed or rather misdated one bar on EJ

Original: "Weekly: Last week suggests a bearish pin bar with an ok long nose and slightly uneven eyes."

Should read:
Weekly: Week before last week suggests a bearish pin bar with an ok long nose and slightly uneven eyes, last week then was roughly rejected by the rising trendline and seems to have put in a sort of disfigured counter-pin.

It seems that EJ is currently attempting to move above the aforementioned trendline resistance and is currently ticking away at 150.40s. Let's see if it dares move past the prior high. Had plenty of setups from 1h and 4h btw.
Note that 150.40 is roughly the height of the left eye of the weekly pin, resistance and could mean todays high could count as the right eye if we don't close above here.

SeekingLight
Enjoying your analysis. I find it very helpful to compare to my thoughts for the coming week.

Was too tired and things didn't feel right writing this today.
Not up to standards, almost didn't post this.

Here it is anyway.

-------------------------

FXNotes as of 12th November, 2006.

EURUSD
Weekly: Barely a bullish bar. Hit head on descending TL resistance.
Daily: Basically a picture perfect pin bar.
Analysis:
EURUSD may have overrallied and be in need for some short term correction at the least.
1.2820, 1.2780-85, 1.2750 areas of smaller support, 1.2720-1.2710 interim, 1.2680-90 pivotal.
Watch for action around 1.2750(1.2764 being last months close) and 1.2680 as these are likely points of interest.
This early on weakness could mean we are in for more consolidation.
Note: Not very happy about assuming a strong dollar after the election results and the whole deal smells fishy.
However price dictates the facts and for now it's hinted at a descent, so that will be the perspective until 1.2900 is broken.


USDCHF
Weekly: Bearish outside bar that didn't make it. Not really a bearish bar / open and close within prior bar.
Daily: Bullish Doji/Pin without a body.
Analysis:
Weekly seems to suggest we couldn't quite make the break lower under the major supporting trendlines and that USDCHF is fighting to get back above these.
As long as we remain above 1.2400 remain cautiously bullish along with the EURUSD Dollar bullish outlook, but be ready to flip if prices move below last weeks low.
Resistance at 1.2430-45, again at 1.2470, more at 1.2525, 1.2560-75 pivotal.
Watch 1.2465 and 1.2525 should we get there.


EURCHF
Weekly: Neutral/bad bearish pin/doji.
Daily: Bullish pin, close in the middle between former support turned resistance and new high.
Analysis:
Indecisive but general direction and short term hints at continuation higher.
A breakdown below 1.5915 has a bit support at 1.5900, more at 1.5850-60.
Next is 1.5830, 1.5790 after that. Needs to remain above 1.5770 lest it risk being exposed to a move lower.
If it can stay above 1.5935 it should remain bullish with levels in previous notes still being in sight.


GBPUSD
Weekly: Bullish bar with open and close within prior bar but highs above it.
Daily: Hasn't made it back low enough to be a bearish pin. Is back below trendline but above wednesdays/thursdays high.
Analysis:
As usual very erratic price action. BOE announcement caused a steep decline which then came back hard for 204 pips from the low and put in a high at 1.9177.
Even though daily price hasn't closed back within pinbar ranges, 4h suggests this may still be the case however.
If we move back over 1.9130 keep an eye near the high, if that is passed we might make a grab at 1.9250.
Support at 1.9100, 1.9070, 1.9030, 1.9000. A loss of 1.9000 could lead to 1.8940-60, if that goes we might see a selloff to 1.8860-80, 1.8800 next support.


EURJPY
Weekly: Bullish bar but weakened.
Daily: Inside bar.
Analysis:
EJ seems as open to suggestions as other pairs. It closed and is holding above a prior resistance trendline now turned support and this hints at attempts of basing and perhaps continuation higher.
Loss of 150.50 support and 150.05-25 should mean a return back into prior ranges, whereas if it remains above 150.60 and moves above 151.30 again it should be primed for an ascent up to 152.30 / 153.85.


USDJPY
Weekly: Came down to almost exactly left eye lows of the bullish pin made the week before and bounced.
Daily: Not quite a bullish pin.
Analysis:
Going from weekly it would seem as long as the 117.15 support holds that 116.55 should not be recontested and things heading higher again.
However we would have to see a clear climb above 118 for that and a close preferably above 118.75 to regain faith in USDJPYs ascent again for good.
Otherwise we might consolidate further in a 117-118.50 range short term, 116.15-118.80 midterm.


AUDUSD
Weekly: Prior weeks bearish almost pin seems to have activated/broken, but only after an extreme spike near the highs.
Daily: Inside Bar.
Analysis:
We may have seen a reactivation of an old trendline support, stopping this recent descent from the rather overheated high at 0.7767.
We have had two pin bars up there and descended 60 pips both times from the pin breaks.
Perhaps this synchronicity hints at a continuation higher after this correction. Haven't measured if we have a bullish gartley/harmonic pattern, but that might be as well.
Either way, the inside bar suggests one should simply straddle with stops to the opposite side and see what comes of it.
Keep in mind however that any shorts will be contested at 0.7630 support, 0.7590-0.7600 again.
Resistance to the upside sits at 0.7695-0.7715, 0.7745 again and finally 0.7760-0.7767 high.
Sticking it out could prove profitable to either side.

Thanks for the thoughts. Hope you feel better.

Hi Seeking the light,
hope you feel better soon. Allow for the beginning of winter and a waning moon!
Best wishes Swami S
p.s. I am concerned that these unformed $ long pins everywhere are going to turn out bad. Take care folks