Forex markets seems to have changed | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

What changed in the Forex Market since the Coronavirus ? 1 reply

Forex changed forever! 315 replies

Poll, Have the long term trends changed? 12 replies

Hybrid Grid System that seems to work 3 replies

Attachments: Forex markets seems to have changed
Exit Attachments

Forex markets seems to have changed

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 13, 2021 10:12am Oct 13, 2021 10:12am
From this year July onwards.

What works last year, does not work anymore now.

I think the world economy is recovering from covid 19.

Anyone feels the same?
  • #2
  • Oct 13, 2021 2:40pm Oct 13, 2021 2:40pm
Nope. That’s just the nature of the game, which is still being played by the same participants. All strategies can be grouped in these categories: mean reversion, momentum and arbitrage. All of those still “work”.

One year is a tiny slice of time...
  • #3
  • Oct 13, 2021 2:47pm Oct 13, 2021 2:47pm
You have to keep evolving your strategies
  • #4
  • Oct 13, 2021 10:46pm Oct 13, 2021 10:46pm
In my opinion only the period of Covid the markets were strange, now everything seems normal, and all my strategy works like normal.

I'm very interested in this question, if you had problem with this "change" describe it.

Regards
My entire life in one sentence: it didn't go as planned, and that's ok.
Random Scalper All Time Return: 9.5%
  • #5
  • Oct 13, 2021 11:30pm Oct 13, 2021 11:30pm
Quoting KnifeS2
In my opinion only the period of Covid the markets were strange, now everything seems normal, and all my strategy works like normal. I'm very interested in this question, if you had problem with this "change" describe it. Regards
Well the change is in the "recovery". I am using those martingale strategies. Previously just need to hold about 1 month, the price will retrace. Now, even hold for 3 months, the price also cannot recover.
  • #6
  • Oct 13, 2021 11:40pm Oct 13, 2021 11:40pm
The market has not changed since the beginning of its creation. It never stops trending up and down alternately.
The only thing that we can blame on is our methodology. As long as it has a predictive factor in it, it will fail sooner or later because the market is unpredictable.

One way to improve our methodology is to change its predictive natures into calculated ones, so that the levels of EP-SL-TP are either existing or calculated, not guessed nor forecasted. That way, the methodology will have some kind of consistency, making it easier to measure and see if it’s profitable or not ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #7
  • Oct 14, 2021 1:20am Oct 14, 2021 1:20am
Quoting 4for4
The market has not changed since the beginning of its creation. It never stops trending up and down alternately. The only thing that we can blame on is our methodology. As long as it has a predictive factor in it, it will fail sooner or later because the market is unpredictable. One way to improve our methodology is to change its predictive natures into calculated ones, so that the levels of EP-SL-TP are either existing or calculated, not guessed nor forecasted. That way, the methodology will have some kind of consistency, making it easier to measure...
Sorry,you are incorrect.

The markets changed around 2011 when HFT took a stronghold on the market. Trends became reduced and year by year, less money seems to be flowing into the forex markets.

But generally the market changes structure every 6 to 9 months so what worked last year may not work as well this year.

Try testing EA’s on the strategy tester and you will see these time blocks.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #8
  • Edited 8:32am Oct 14, 2021 1:33am | Edited 8:32am
Quoting RickM
... Trends became reduced ...
The HFT might make the trends changed faster or hold longer, but the fact that the market keeps on trending up and down alternately is never changed ...

Btw, the forex market keeps on growing to around $7-Trillion a day now ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #9
  • Oct 14, 2021 2:11am Oct 14, 2021 2:11am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Sorry,you are incorrect. The markets changed around 2011 when HFT took a stronghold on the market. Trends became reduced and year by year, less money seems to be flowing into the forex markets. But generally the market changes structure every 6 to 9 months so what worked last year may not work as well this year. Try testing EA’s on the strategy tester and you will see these time blocks.
You sure about this? QE says otherwise...
  • #10
  • Oct 14, 2021 4:21am Oct 14, 2021 4:21am
Quoting lengendff
{quote} Well the change is in the "recovery". I am using those martingale strategies. Previously just need to hold about 1 month, the price will retrace. Now, even hold for 3 months, the price also cannot recover.
I think it depends on your martingale strategy, because as you can see from my trade explorer i also have a martingale strategy account, and my average holding time is 33 hours. So in my opinion you could update you strategy and adapt it to the current market; I usually do it every 3/4 months.

Regards
My entire life in one sentence: it didn't go as planned, and that's ok.
Random Scalper All Time Return: 9.5%
  • #11
  • Oct 14, 2021 11:16pm Oct 14, 2021 11:16pm
The market is still the same. It’s just that new traders have entered and they use new ways of making money. Traders keep making changes to their trading strategies and that’s what is the right thing to do as well.
  • #12
  • Oct 15, 2021 1:34am Oct 15, 2021 1:34am
As in almost any modern field of activity, everything flows and changes. It is quite natural that the methods that worked yesterday will not work tomorrow, be it marketing, programming, trading. In the digital world, life is fast and vibrant.
  • #13
  • Oct 15, 2021 11:58am Oct 15, 2021 11:58am
I have found systems that work for a few years, then stop, thats just how it is, the market goes through phases.
  • #14
  • Edited 9:38pm Oct 16, 2021 7:24pm | Edited 9:38pm
Quoting 4for4
The market has not changed since the beginning of its creation. It never stops trending up and down alternately. The only thing that we can blame on is our methodology. As long as it has a predictive factor in it, it will fail sooner or later because the market is unpredictable. One way to improve our methodology is to change its predictive natures into calculated ones, so that the levels of EP-SL-TP are either existing or calculated, not guessed nor forecasted. That way, the methodology will have some kind of consistency, making it easier to measure...
When a system failed after working for some times, 3 things came to mind:
1. Did it employ a consistent risk-to-reward ratio, not the “cut losses short, let profits run” mindset?
2. Did it need discretionary decisions to operate, either on entry or exits?
3. Did it take the “bigger” ongoing trend into consideration and trade in line with it?

There might be more to consider, please add ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #15
  • Oct 21, 2021 6:02am Oct 21, 2021 6:02am
Quoting lengendff
From this year July onwards. What works last year, does not work anymore now. I think the world economy is recovering from covid 19. Anyone feels the same?
Hi
Before you declare that the market has changed please find an answer, have you changed during this time?
I'm hinting that your approach to trading may have changed, and analysis of trading activity is highly important.
If you don't mind, please share how you trade and what exactly seems to be a problematic aspect in your trading strategy.
  • #16
  • Oct 21, 2021 7:51am Oct 21, 2021 7:51am
An old exchange saying:
When you find the key to the market, he changes the lock.
  • #17
  • Oct 21, 2021 8:09am Oct 21, 2021 8:09am
Quoting Marcellus8610
{quote} Hi Before you declare that the market has changed please find an answer, have you changed during this time? I'm hinting that your approach to trading may have changed, and analysis of trading activity is highly important. If you don't mind, please share how you trade and what exactly seems to be a problematic aspect in your trading strategy.
Nothing changes. I described in Post #5.
  • #18
  • Oct 23, 2021 9:19am Oct 23, 2021 9:19am
these are good times. forex market will be disappeared in 10 years. probably all free-floating currencies will be fixed to the (something)
  • #19
  • Oct 23, 2021 10:42am Oct 23, 2021 10:42am
Quoting lengendff
From this year July onwards. What works last year, does not work anymore now. I think the world economy is recovering from covid 19. Anyone feels the same?
You are obviously a newbie and dont have the experience that most traders in here have, because the markets have not changed. What I will tell you is that using a Martingale strategy is the worst & most high risk way of trading, and you will blow your account eventually guaranteed.

Do you think any of the worlds top traders use a Martingale strategy, the answer is a big NO. If you dont believe me do some research and you will clearly see about what I am talking about. The markets actually became more volatile with Covid-19 for many months, and every time Trump would open his stupid mouth the markets would react big time. For most traders the volatilty was very welcome, and there was lots of money to be made.
  • #20
  • Oct 23, 2021 7:34pm Oct 23, 2021 7:34pm
Quoting pipsquick16
{quote} You are obviously a newbie and dont have the experience that most traders in here have, because the markets have not changed. What I will tell you is that using a Martingale strategy is the worst & most high risk way of trading, and you will blow your account eventually guaranteed. Do you think any of the worlds top traders use a Martingale strategy, the answer is a big NO. If you dont believe me do some research and you will clearly see about what I am talking about. The markets actually became more volatile with Covid-19 for many months,...
Most people would like to have second chance when they are wrong. Martingale offers that; second , third and more chances. Also when performing Martingale, it is usually done by a robot using a predefined system where there's no room for emotion or errors.

Some do think that technical analysis are a scam. What happened in the past does not always happen in the future. Place a trade using TA means it's a 50/50 chance. With stop loss and it's sometimes worst than Martingale approach, where there is no second chance. Also different traders interpret the chart differently and will place and close trades at different price.
0 traders viewing now