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vsa with Malcolm

  • #34,401
  • Edited 8:49am Oct 11, 2021 7:39am | Edited 8:49am
USDCAD M15 -1%

MA allignment from H1 down.

Break above LO HVZ High, Hidden Test entry.

The test was a bit shy of touching the HVZ High, and also not too sure about the volume as its not <2, but it does look like demand entered on the bottom.

But will take a chance on it.

Update: Stopped out on this one, didnt realise about the US holiday as Anotan pointed out.

Also debating with myself whether the stop was too tight, as using the previous swing low would have kept me in long enough to adjust my trade management. although would still have hit SL.

Challenge Update: -1.1%

Not looking too good tbh with 2.5 weeks left to go, theres always the possibility of getting back over breakeven for a retake. Im not counting my chickens on passing though as most successfull passes are pretty well into profit or at target by now. Im pretty sure il need to make some hefty changes to my trading plan though going forward as its not the most productive.
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  • #34,402
  • Oct 11, 2021 8:22am Oct 11, 2021 8:22am
Quoting Paulscaff1
USDCAD M15 MA allignment from H1 down. Break above LO HVZ High, Hidden Test entry. The test was a bit shy of touching the HVZ High, and also not too sure about the volume as its not <2, but it does look like demand entered on the bottom. But will take a chance on it. {image}
Today is a minor US holiday, I wouldn't recommend trading US session.

I usually take US holidays off, but I did take a small short on EU.
  • #34,403
  • Oct 11, 2021 8:25am Oct 11, 2021 8:25am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Today is a minor US holiday, I wouldn't recommend trading US session. I usually take US holidays off, but I did take a small short on EU.
Didnt even realise it was a Holiday

..........Columbus Day
  • #34,404
  • Oct 11, 2021 8:34am Oct 11, 2021 8:34am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Didnt even realise it was a Holiday ..........Columbus Day
Its a good habit to check the Calendar at the beginning of the week to see whats ahead.

Be aware of holidays, rate announcements, fomc wednesday, nfp, a bunch of red events scheduled for the same time.
  • #34,405
  • Oct 11, 2021 8:56am Oct 11, 2021 8:56am
Quoting Paulscaff1
USDCAD M15 MA allignment from H1 down. Break above LO HVZ High, Hidden Test entry. The test was a bit shy of touching the HVZ High, and also not too sure about the volume as its not <2, but it does look like demand entered on the bottom. But will take a chance on it. emphasis added
Putting aside the fact that today is a Holiday in the U.S., I like this trade. Actually, let me be clear; if you followed all your rules, this is a good trade regardless of the outcome.

My chart is a little different. Not right or better, just different.

The two things that would keep me from taking the trade would be:

(1) I use YHVZ from H1 and not the current HVZ from the trading timeframe. And price is below YHVZ, ruling out any longs.

(2) I don't have trend alignment: Chart Mode on the H1 is Red.

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Again, this isn't meant as criticism. I like that you took this trade based on your definition of trend alignment, location, and on price and volume. If you planned your trade and you traded your plan, you've already won.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #34,406
  • Oct 11, 2021 9:00am Oct 11, 2021 9:00am
Quoting Paulscaff1
USDCAD M15 -1% MA allignment from H1 down. Break above LO HVZ High, Hidden Test entry. The test was a bit shy of touching the HVZ High, and also not too sure about the volume as its not <2, but it does look like demand entered on the bottom. But will take a chance on it. Update: Stopped out on this one, didnt realise about the US holiday as Anotan pointed out. Also debating with myself whether the stop was too tight, as using the previous swing low would have kept me in long enough to adjust my trade management. although would still have hit SL....
now zoom out that 15m chart and then you will see that we are in a massive downward trend. do you see any signs of COB (change of behaviour)? EvR, WRB, increase in up waves, break of significant LH, etc?
i dont see anything of that, so i would not even look for buys
The more you learn the more you earn
  • #34,407
  • Oct 11, 2021 9:38am Oct 11, 2021 9:38am
Quoting freemind
{quote} now zoom out that 15m chart and then you will see that we are in a massive downward trend. do you see any signs of COB (change of behaviour)? EvR, WRB, increase in up waves, break of significant LH, etc? i dont see anything of that, so i would not even look for buys
Thanks for your input mate, i'l answer some of what I can.

You mention change of behaviour, im assuming you mean a Wyckoff, 2nd change of character. To be honest no I dont in that sense, but....

In Gavin Holmes, and Phillip Fristons teachings "in VSA" there is a mention of a "Change of Behaviour" , They both define this as either " Price crossing the moving average, and/or the HVC high or low being broken. They suggest choosing one as a rule. It just so happens that I had both onside. So by those definitions then I would say there was a change in behaviour. Yes maybe not from a Wyckoff Structure pov, but for vsa it seems to be the case.

I partly agree about the trend, from a structure perspective I would say that were definitely in a downtrend but in order to keep it simple and rule based I just decided to use the MA from H1 Down, Price had just crossed above the H1 MA and the diamond had just turned green, Also M30 and M15 aligned which was handy.

I know your into Weiss Waves mate, but no-one else here really uses it, not that im discrediting it though, but adding a WW rule on top of VZA would make it an absolute nightmare to find a trade, when they are already few and far between (at least for me and my experience level).

But I do appreciate your comments as it does get me thinking about the trade.
  • #34,408
  • Oct 11, 2021 9:52am Oct 11, 2021 9:52am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Putting aside the fact that today is a Holiday in the U.S., I like this trade. Actually, let me be clear; if you followed all your rules, this is a good trade regardless of the outcome. My chart is a little different. Not right or better, just different. The two things that would keep me from taking the trade would be: (1) I use YHVZ from H1 and not the current HVZ from the trading timeframe. And price is below YHVZ, ruling out any longs. (2) I don't have trend alignment: Chart Mode on the H1 is Red. {image} Again, this isn't meant as criticism....
Thanks for the input mate, yeah true about using todays HVZ. It was the London Open Zone that I still had on my Chart from earlier, I noticed we were a good distance away from YHVZ so was thinking I could use it as a target, with the aim to get to breakeven at least before then.

I know you use indicators that replicate the TG ones (Williams AO) and something else , I have considered adding them but its a long day, especially when there's not as many setups, and my clock is ticking, adding in more filters will make it that bit harder to get a setup. But theres pros and cons I guess, stuff I will definetely have to evaluate moving forward.
  • #34,409
  • Oct 11, 2021 9:54am Oct 11, 2021 9:54am
JPY pairs are tearing it up today.
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  • #34,410
  • Oct 11, 2021 10:08am Oct 11, 2021 10:08am
Today
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Daytrader
  • #34,411
  • Oct 11, 2021 10:21am Oct 11, 2021 10:21am
Quoting trezo
Today {image}
Oh, thats a sexy looking chart.

Don't get lost in the lines, keep one HVC for up bars and one for down bars. Delete that HVC at 17:00 once 17:10 formed.

Nice test at 17:26 with the next bar closing well below the low of the previous bar. Easy short at 17:32.

You did a good job on closing your short, I probably would've closed it around 17:55
  • #34,412
  • Oct 11, 2021 10:24am Oct 11, 2021 10:24am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Hey HG, was wondering why you werent happy with this trade mate?
I don't like switching time frames. I would like to use the H1 time frame to find the HVZ and trade from the M15. Meaning the M15 is the chart from which my entries would be taken. In this case, I decided to go down to the M1 and look for the entry.

TG's new thing is to drop down to the S15 to look for entries. Maybe I should be more open to finding the "ideal" entry over rigidly staying on a single chart time frame. It's just that I have seen other successful methods that don't do that, and the way it was presented by TG seems a bit "gimmicky" to me.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #34,413
  • Oct 11, 2021 10:28am Oct 11, 2021 10:28am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} ... and the way it was presented by TG seems a bit "gimmicky" to me.
I couldn't agree more.

I don't think I've seen a TG webinar since Tom Williams passed away.
  • #34,414
  • Oct 11, 2021 10:39am Oct 11, 2021 10:39am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Oh, thats a sexy looking chart. Don't get lost in the lines, keep one HVC for up bars and one for down bars. Delete that HVC at 17:00 once 17:10 formed. Nice test at 17:26 with the next bar closing well below the low of the previous bar. Easy short at 17:32. You did a good job on closing your short, I probably would've closed it around 17:55
Haha thanks, I am looking for the best design for me.

Okey, I am testing it.

For closing this short, I just moved stop loss above this up bar and thats all.
Daytrader
  • #34,415
  • Oct 11, 2021 10:43am Oct 11, 2021 10:43am
here I see would fail, I can already see if I caught a few stop losses here
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Daytrader
  • #34,416
  • Oct 11, 2021 11:26am Oct 11, 2021 11:26am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} I don't like switching time frames. I would like to use the H1 time frame to find the HVZ and trade from the M15. Meaning the M15 is the chart from which my entries would be taken. In this case, I decided to go down to the M1 and look for the entry. TG's new thing is to drop down to the S15 to look for entries. Maybe I should be more open to finding the "ideal" entry over rigidly staying on a single chart time frame. It's just that I have seen other successful methods that don't do that, and the way it was presented by TG seems a bit "gimmicky"...
True, I could see how it would be tempting for people as he makes it look like a piece of piss with the trade alerts etc, and bangs out a few trades before the webinar is finished.
  • #34,417
  • Oct 11, 2021 5:01pm Oct 11, 2021 5:01pm
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Ive had a PDF (scanned) cooy of "My journey of discovery" the book for a while but never really looked at it, until its just been mentioned But having just quickly flicked through it I would say it looks good, there are certain nuances about the different principles that arent elaborated as much in other books, and from first impressions it looks like its going to answer some of my questions/fill in some gaps. Il read it properly over the weekend to see how it compares to MTM and Shadow of SM.
Please let us know if you did enjoy the book, the price is very high
  • #34,418
  • Oct 12, 2021 1:36am Oct 12, 2021 1:36am
Quoting fellowVSA
{quote} Please let us know if you did enjoy the book, the price is very high
Yeah mate I thought it was good.

But between MTM, Gavin Holmes books, this thread and others, you can get all the same information and more for free if you dig deep enough.
  • #34,419
  • Oct 12, 2021 1:43am Oct 12, 2021 1:43am
EU Weekly
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DRAGON-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!
  • #34,420
  • Oct 12, 2021 2:19am Oct 12, 2021 2:19am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Thanks for your input mate, i'l answer some of what I can. You mention change of behaviour, im assuming you mean a Wyckoff, 2nd change of character. To be honest no I dont in that sense, but.... In Gavin Holmes, and Phillip Fristons teachings "in VSA" there is a mention of a "Change of Behaviour" , They both define this as either " Price crossing the moving average, and/or the HVC high or low being broken. They suggest choosing one as a rule. It just so happens that I had both onside. So by those definitions then I would say there was a...
for one moment let's forget about what Gavin says and Wyckoff theory. lets think logically, if we are going down for several days in a row, with clear structure breaks LL & LH. then to stop that movement we need something significant, right? the down move will not end just without printing an increase in volume or with an increase in length on up bars (or climax down bar) or change in waves (im not talking about weis wave here!) im talking that down waves will decrease in length and up waves will increase in length.
i attach an image that would help to better illustrate the point i try to make. we have a climax, we break that with up bar and next bar closes down and then we have the biggest price down wave with biggest down bars in all the up move which follows by very small up wave compared to all the previous up waves. several trade possibilities there.
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The more you learn the more you earn
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