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  • #90,941
  • Oct 6, 2021 2:17am Oct 6, 2021 2:17am
maybe little tl here at 1539...
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,942
  • Oct 6, 2021 2:36am Oct 6, 2021 2:36am
Quoting gatorinla
maybe little tl here at 1539... {image}
Week range low 1506
  • #90,943
  • Oct 6, 2021 2:52am Oct 6, 2021 2:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I did tp some Bitcoin, waiting for some retrace. maybe 47k.. 49,431 looks minimal atm
Bitcoin big support just under 47k.. st maybe 50.2xK 49.4k see chart.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,944
  • Oct 6, 2021 3:06am Oct 6, 2021 3:06am
Quoting jaylovin
{quote} hello eveeyone 1.1535 coming for euro IMO
holy crap - so glad I don’t trade this pair no more… target hit
  • #90,945
  • Oct 6, 2021 3:09am Oct 6, 2021 3:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} still 1598.7 year support the q closed below. The 12h just closed below 1598, but not below 1993Q. Be extremely careful with closes below 1593. It may not bounce at 1554. Below 1593 now, may not come back. I hoped for 1660 attraction yesterday, and maybe Q pp 168x.. Being below 1598 and later 1593 may be on a banana peel, this time of the year. Sometimes it goes one direction. Its done it in the past. With any 1598 balancing could bring 1557 .Very close to 1554 target. Using 1593 as a pivot could bring 1546. Caution with...
sorry I closed at 1555
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,946
  • Oct 6, 2021 3:16am Oct 6, 2021 3:16am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,947
  • Oct 6, 2021 3:21am Oct 6, 2021 3:21am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} sorry I closed at 1555
My graph is bare under 1.1545, what would your TP be if you were still in?
  • #90,948
  • Oct 6, 2021 3:22am Oct 6, 2021 3:22am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Week range low 1506
?
  • #90,949
  • Oct 6, 2021 3:26am Oct 6, 2021 3:26am
Quoting pips.Oops
{quote} My graph is bare under 1.1545, what would your TP be if you were still in?
I got out because of 1554 tp was hit. But it wasn't to say it was bottom. ADR is in the same area. I think 1492 has an attraction, but I think it will go deeper. The Q close was lower, plus it was below 2020 close. NFP to come and adp. I dont know how the hurricane affected employment forcast. Maybe it could bounce. It usually will retest 158x. I hope to enter some 158/9x. Not that i would long.. I would wait to short.

If employment news is bad for the usd, Then the usd continues to climb, even with the bad news. Don't get in its way. Its likely a year end rebalance. And that mean 1598 was the mid point.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,950
  • Oct 6, 2021 3:33am Oct 6, 2021 3:33am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I got out because of 1554 tp was hit. But it wasn't to say it was bottom. ADR is in the same area. I think 1492 has an attraction, but I think it will go deeper. The Q close was lower, plus it was below 2020 close. NFP to come and adp. I dont know how the hurricane affected employment forcast. Maybe it could bounce. It usually will retest 158x. I hope to enter some 158/9x.
I totally agree with your analysis, was supposed to bail at that level but decided to keep it open, even if I realize it's a bit of a stretch (hoping for a 100 pip swing like last Wednesday).

Thanks for the reply, I appreciate it!
  • #90,951
  • Oct 6, 2021 3:38am Oct 6, 2021 3:38am
1.1380-1.1420 seems a viable target before any decent bounce (not meaning a reversal) ... NFP is expected at 490k which realistically is a low expectation, so numbers released Friday could be well in the green.

The Target zone established is the 161.8% from 23rd March low to 23rd May high of 2021

difficult to short or long this pair at current levels... RRR may favour longs, maybe due to oversold bias and near psychological levels.

Only a bad NFP and FOMC shunning from tapering can help EURO.

Time will tell!
Cheers!!
  • #90,952
  • Oct 6, 2021 4:03am Oct 6, 2021 4:03am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I got out because of 1554 tp was hit. But it wasn't to say it was bottom. ADR is in the same area. I think 1492 has an attraction, but I think it will go deeper. The Q close was lower, plus it was below 2020 close. NFP to come and adp. I dont know how the hurricane affected employment forcast. Maybe it could bounce. It usually will retest 158x. I hope to enter some 158/9x. Not that i would long.. I would wait to short. If employment news is bad for the usd, Then the usd continues to climb, even with the bad news. Don't get in its way. Its...
Balancing could look like this, Month average range is about 350 pips. So 700 pips is within that norm average. We got 12 weeks left in the year. That's about 60 trading days. If the adr starts to rise, with a downtrend. It needs 12 pips a day. 60 per week. A rise in adr may be hard to spot. its about 50 pips now. If it happening, the bottoms will blow out of adr, and week averages. Today the bottom blew out of the day. 5551. If this get to be a pattern 1.0848 needs to be considered for year end
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,953
  • Oct 6, 2021 4:21am Oct 6, 2021 4:21am
Quoting Boulder
Just woke up... against trends .. long some here 1557 1556
I still hold these longs from early morning...I did have over $200 profit, I didn't book fast .... I carefully scalp more longs along the way, since against very strong bearish trends,, only fast in and out....bulls first hurdle 1544 on M5
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  • #90,954
  • Oct 6, 2021 4:47am Oct 6, 2021 4:47am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I still hold these longs from early morning...I did have over $200 profit, I didn't book fast .... I carefully scalp more longs along the way, since against very strong bearish trends,, only fast in and out....bulls first hurdle 1544 on M5 {image}
The last COT shows longs and shorts near balanced. The trend was closing longs and adding shorts. That balance change at/near 1598, I dont think was by accident. I think the Q close below 1598 was the last straw. I think next Cot will be more shorts.

If true, NFP may not matter as much as normal. Evidence may be, a bad NFP, followed by a usd climb.

I think this pa is leaning this way now. Even before NFP. A eu drop could be severe,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,955
  • Oct 6, 2021 5:14am Oct 6, 2021 5:14am
568k ADP
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,956
  • Oct 6, 2021 5:32am Oct 6, 2021 5:32am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,957
  • Oct 6, 2021 5:36am Oct 6, 2021 5:36am
Bulls took back M15... watch M15
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  • #90,958
  • Oct 6, 2021 5:39am Oct 6, 2021 5:39am
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  • #90,959
  • Oct 6, 2021 5:40am Oct 6, 2021 5:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Balancing could look like this, Month average range is about 350 pips. So 700 pips is within that norm average. We got 12 weeks left in the year. That's about 60 trading days. If the adr starts to rise, with a downtrend. It needs 12 pips a day. 60 per week. A rise in adr may be hard to spot. its about 50 pips now. If it happening, the bottoms will blow out of adr, and week averages. Today the bottom blew out of the day. 5551. If this get to be a pattern 1.0848 needs to be considered for year end {image}
lets see if i can reverse adr. That means 1526 would have been the 12 pip average 4X12=48 (4 days X 12 pips on day 4), on the 4 th trading day. Q open -48=1526. would be average in the above post calculation. At 12 pips per day. Its on schedule.

ADR still near 50 pips.. 50-12 =38. 38,+ atm low 1528=1566.. Day 5 (tomorrow) still can be 1514 at low to be on average schedule. And so forth

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #90,960
  • Oct 6, 2021 5:41am Oct 6, 2021 5:41am
Quoting gatorinla
568k ADP
I wonder if hands and eyes touch and see these set of data before release these days. The move has already been made! NFP might most likely be red as is the case with negative correlation with ADP for some time now. Friday may be bear grilling day.
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