AWTT - Trader Toolkit

Hello Traders,

I have just released Atelier Web Trader Toolkit (AWTT) for MT4 and MT5.

I am convinced I am presenting something important that you will find extremely useful.
I have a long career in the software industry and am not the kind of individual to market scam solutions.

Please confirm for yourself.

You can download and read the Manual and you can download a 15-day full featured trial version from here:

1. AWTT for MT4 and MT5 Download (http://www.atelierweb.com/products/aw-trader-toolkit-for-mt4-and-mt5/awtt-for-mt4-and-mt5-download/)

You can post your comments here, as usual, or you can PM me (there limits on the allowed PMs per day) or you can contact me from the website (http://www.atelierweb.com/contact-support/).

Have a great Trading Day.

Retail Traders use different strategies. Although statistics confirm that more than 90% of Retail Traders fail within a short period of time, this does not mean that the spirit of the strategy was wrong. It may mean that its implementation was not correct.
So, I am not going to advocate any particular strategy with AWTT, there are cases of success in every existing strategy.

I would like to stress only the following points:

1. Risk Management is very important. I have previously elaborated on this subject. You should endeavor to understand it well, don't gamble. If you gamble, you may belong to a lucky minority and be gifted with a good winning strike earning good money. But if you continue, it is absolutely granted, you will lose all the gains and more.
2. Most Chart Indicators on the market are misleading. A few are useful, though. You should have a good Volatility Indicator and here I would suggest the ATR indicator because it is easy to use (but there are other good ones). You should have, as well, a good Impulse Indicator, there are many to choose from and I would not recommend any in particular.
3. Obviously, I strongly recommend the use of our Currency Strength Meters and the Correlations Chart as a base for work.
4. For the Period Currency Strength, make a top down analysis. Start by looking at the weekly chart and annotate the relative positions of the currencies and their trends. Pay particular attention to the USD because it has utmost influence on commodity prices and the commodity prices in turn have influence on other currencies and even in stocks/indices. Then look at the daily Currency Strength chart, it may confirm the weekly chart or a deviation from it. A lengthy deviation must be studied carefully to assert possible underlying fundamental changes. Then move on to the 4-Hour Currency Strength chart. You can take the 4-hour chart as the base for intra-day work or move further down to explore potential differences during the day. Lower time frames are more risky but also potentially more rewarding.
5. Study the Correlations Chart. There are very good correlations between the currency pairs themselves and between some currency pairs and various commodities. Some good correlations last long, others are significant only on some time frames. Correlations can also be used for Hedging, i.e., to reduce the risk.
6. Look at the MT4/MT5 Charts. Zones of Supply and Demand are important. The storyline behind them is controversial, however something might be expected in such zones, for example a consolidation for a possible break out. The size and form of the candles and where they happens is important. Conclusions taken from these observation are far from being always correct, but we are in a probabilistic game that is a mix of luck and skill and every little bit helps to turn the odds in our favor.
7. Have a look at good sources of market information. Be aware that most of these sources are biased and manipulated. Capability to collect useful information and read behind the headlines takes time and may be the first reason veteran Traders say, we need years of experience to become consistent. Probably, not as long as that, but it tends to improve along the time.
8. At all times, use your brain, it is the best indicator, but don't follow your guts. The brain will allow crossing all the information to produce a rational decision.

Since AWTT is so innovative, I am going to answer some potential technical questions:

 

1. Question: Why is not AWTT distributed by the MetaQuotes's website?
   Answer: AWTT can not be lodged on the MetaQuotes's website because it runs from an .EXE connected to MT4 or MT5 by a virtual bridge.
2. Question: Is AWTT based on a C# or Python framework?
   Answer: Absolutely not. AWTT is pure machine code, not based on wrapper frameworks, which, as we know, never took off.
3. Question: Why have you chosen to produce AWTT as an .EXE instead of a .DLL?
   Answer: Initial internal versions where in .DLL format, but the .DLL has many limitations, particularly when the projects gains dimension.
4. Question: Why don't you use chart indicators within MT4 or MT5 like every other developer?
   Answer: Of course, we can call indicators at the AWTT Dashboard's instruments, although they work much better and much faster outside MetaTrader. In addition, consider that many traditional Metatrader indicators are not suitable to be used in chart windows, they are placed in a chart, even a chart with a blank template, because there is no other place to lodge them.

Getting started with AWTT could not be easier.

 

1. Unzip the distribution package and you will find two files. One of the files is a standard Windows install program, the other file is the virtual bridge.
2. Run the install program like you do with any other Windows program.
3. In MetaTrader, under Tools/Options/Experts Advisors, tick:
   1. Allow Automated trading
   2. Allow DLL imports. (Note: AW Trader Toolkit will only import Operating System DLLs)

4. Load into the Market Watch window of MT4/MT5 all the 28 Major and Cross Currency Pairs. Without this you will not be able to use the Currency Strength tools which are a cornerstone of the system. It is recommended (but not compulsory), that you load as well, if available, the USDSEK pair. This will allow the calculation of the DXY index, when it is not supplied by the broker. If USDSEK is not available as well, an estimation is done and can be considered good enough.
   The 28 Major and Cross pairs are: AUDCAD, AUDCHF, AUDJPY, AUDNZD, AUDUSD, CADCHF, CADJPY, CHFJPY, EURAUD, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURGBP, EURJPY, EURNZD, EURUSD, GBPAUD, GBPCAD, GBPCHF, GBPJPY, GBPNZD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, NZDCAD, NZDCHF, NZDJPY, USDJPY
   Some brokers use suffixes and prefixes on the pair names, AW Trader Toolkit will figure that out and it should work the same for you.
5. Install the AW Trader Toolkit Bridge (AWTTBridge.ex4 for MT4 or AWTTBridge.ex5 for MT5). This is done in the usual manner for MetaTrader EAs, i.e. copy the Bridge to the Experts folder, or one of its subfolders. It will appear in the Navigator window of the platform after you refresh or restart the platform. Note that the Bridge cannot be considered an EA, but the way to install it is the same used for EAs. Now, pay attention to the following:
   1. Select any instrument that has reasonable amount of liquidity and install the EA on it. Of course, EURUSD is always a good choice but most others will do.
   2. Install only one (1) copy of the Bridge on the platform. Avoid changing the Time Frame of the Chart where you installed the Bridge. Changing the Time Frame does restart the Bridge, cleaning all variables and structures. This is a characteristic of the MetaTrader platforms. While the AWTT.EXE is able to deal with that, it will need to self-reset. So, try to avoid this.

6. Launch AWTT.EXE and pull the Connect Bridge button, if you see the Server/Account Number on the list of the Monitor tab. If you don't see, the probable reason is that the Bridge was not installed, so install it. For future trading sessions, you will need to do this step only, unless you uninstall the Bridge from the platform (if so, do step 5 first).

Our software supports any number of MT4 (or MT5, depending on the version) platforms installed on the computer, and licenses are per Seat (each Seat is a computer, so you can connect to many platform on that computer with a single license). For each platform, repeat steps 1 to 6). You can use multiple platforms (even at the same time) either by selecting the one you want from the AWTT.EXE combobox or by launching multiple instance of AWTT.EXE. The platform you connected with will be shown at the bottom of the Monitor tab of AWTT.EXE after the connection.

Have a great Trading day!

Following our natural instincts, makes us feel like a genius when we get it right. Unfortunately, there are not many genius, but long winning strikes in Trading are very possible, in particular when we trade with low Reward to Risk ratios. But losses will occur after a while and each loss will tend to cover all previous wins and more. This is actually the newbies trap.
I am not recommending high Reward to Risk ratios all the time, but traders that make the option for low Reward to Risk ratios and succeed long term need to be very experimented.

So, I am talking about Risk Management and there is a lot to say about it.
Within the AWTT Manual we explain more extensively these concepts. In addition we provide an educational Equity Simulator and the best Position Calculators you will ever find.

I leave here an image of the classic Position Calculator and will explain it in another opportunity.

Most people use the classical Position Calculator for Risk Management. I do the same most of the time. However, there are other ways to calculate Position Size.
One of them is quite fascinating, it is based on the Kelly Criterion, a simple mathematical formula that determines the optimal theoretical size for a bet (in our case a Trade).
For the formula to work properly we need to supply two key inputs:

1. The probability of winning a trade. Of course, this is impossible, we are not not on a coin tossing or dice rolling exercise. But estimates can be attempted from historical data and other hints (this is how sports betting firms proceed and make a living). Estimating the market probably of uncertain events is difficult because historical data refers to specific contexts. Anyway, many traders use the Kelly Criterion, a frequently cited example is Warren Buffet, so they have to come out with probability estimates.
2. How much we gain when we win a trade and how much we lose when the trade is a loss. What matters here is the quotient between these two. So, this is easy when we use Stop Loss and Take Profit, like we do with our Kelly Criterion Position Calculator.

SL and TP are calculated based on the ATR and respective ATR Multipliers. The reasoning behind is that we assume to have a certain winning probability (WP) to hit the TP (and then 1-WP probability of hitting the SL). Some people may dispute this way of calculation, but I am yet to see another one based on something concrete.

Be aware that the validity of the Kelly Criteria assumes a long stream of trades. Even if the estimated winning probability is constant, correct and high, we may face a loss strike that wipes out all our account.

In the AWTT Manual we elaborate on the correct strategy to use with the Kelly Criterion Position Calculator.

I always had the perception that having information about the Relative Currency Strength of the major currency pairs is a cornerstone into the whole forex trading decision making process.
I tested all Relative Currency Strength meters I could find. The problem was, and I can say that without hesitation, no satisfactory Relative Currency Strength existed in the market place.
It took me quite a while to figure out the exact approach to produce a good Relative Currency Strength . Then it was extensively tested by my team and relatives, some of them obtained a really astonishing success. Remember, I am not a professional trader and in spite of that I am having an extraordinary success as well.
To prove it I run two Trade Explorers (see above) from the 14-day trial FTMO (one of them is still running). People know how difficult these trials are, they are equivalent to the FTMO Challenge within halved time period. The rate of success on the FTMO Challenge is much less than 10%. This is the FTMO report for the first Trade Explorer:

Question: What is the difference between a Bridge and an EA?
Answer: The Bridge has no functional input parameters. It is just a slave.

Free Life Time License for Everybody that tries and feedbacks.

I would like some people to try AWTT and present intelligent feedback (good or bad, never mind, I want to hear).

Until further notice, I will be offering 100% FREE Unlimited Life Upgrade licenses to every trader that gives AWTT the benefit of the doubt and decides to try and later produce intelligent feedback about it. The trial is, of course, already free but only work for 15 days. I am offering a full license, so you will be able to use AWTT forever.

I am convinced AWTT is a really innovative and useful toolset that can make you much more consistently profitable than any other solution.

I have my own opinion about EAs and Indicators and explained it in AWTT Manual (I am not completely against and far from discrediting them all).

So, have a look at AWTT, it is different.

(*) Intelligent feedback is not gratuitous praising.

Using AWTT's Period Currency Strength for a weekly vision of the relative currencies strengths.

We can see the general panorama that this week is facing. USD is not being able to control Oil prices (that means CAD) unless it somehow manages to get stronger.

Question: How to get USD stronger when US economy, inflation and jobs are not helping enough?

My Answer: Great question, but I would rephrase it in another way: What will happen if USD does not get stronger? My answer would be: Oil and commodity prices will increase even more, the economy will deplete and people will increasingly question whether they should stake for the bad times with USD or with Gold and crypto instead.

As we can see the EUR is already very weak, so the dollar index (aka USD index) has not much room to go up at the EUR expenses.

We can see also that the YEN moves opposite to CAD. i.e. Oil prices affect it very much.

And we can see as well that the Kiwi is waiting for a potential resurgence of the stock market.

Was this analysis helpful? Will it be more useful to read the mainstream boards and analysis to get acquainted about what will happen next? I don't know, but we have the guarantee, they tend to get it right 50% of the time.

Another cool feature of AWTT is the Trading Hours map, in your own Local Time.

Needless to say that many traders, and not only the new ones, don't clearly know when the main Stock Exchange sessions start and end. Does it matter?

Of course, even if you only trade currencies, it does matter a lot. There are traders that only trade at the beginning of some session, others that only trade in the end, others that only trade in the middle and also others that only trade when both London and New York sessions are open. It is not a question of fantasy, it is related to their own trading strategy (sometimes it is also related to their sleeping hours, of course).

My analysis from the above post (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/13740433#post13740433) was correct.

USD got stronger and EURUSD dropped almost 40 pips during the New York session.
This was a simple demonstration, based only on the weekly timeframe, about the usefulness of a good Currency Strength tool to help the strategic analysis.

PS: Interestingly, indicators like the RSI were pointing in the other direction because there was a divergence.

I have talked about correlations and the AWTT Correlations Map before.

Working with correlations in association with the relative currency strength tools is what we might call a jump to the next level. I am not saying it is the Holy Grail or that it is easy (it is not complicated either), I am only saying that it is the way to go. Try it!

If you have not been profitable, like more than 90% traders are, what have you to lose? Why insist in using losing indicators, heavily promoted by your broker (of course)?

The most important details about correlations and our Correlations Map are in the manual.

Here is a snapshot of our Correlations Map for the 1 hour timeframe (some correlations are both surprising and amazing).

Another tool I mentioned before was the Equity Simulator.

I classify it as an Educational tool for Risk Management, but please take it seriously in spite of the educational attribute. Even many veteran traders don't understand correctly the principles of Risk Management.

The concept of Risk is intuitive, if means exposure to danger. But managing the Risk is a whole different story.

The probability of losing money in a series of trades is never zero. No matter how proficient you are, nothing is certain, nothing can be taken for granted. However, we can improve the odds of success, because, after all, we are in a game of both luck and expertise.

On the Equity Simulator there are 2 parameters, and associated strategies, to keep a good eye on: the Win Rate and the R/R (Reward to Risk ratio).

If the Win Rate is low but the R/R is high you can be profitable. You will lose most of the trades, but when you win, it will compensate for the losses.
On the other hand, if the Win Rate is high but the R/R is low, the opposite may happen.

The first strategy works best for Swing traders. It is rare, within the Intraday Trading period, the market to move enough to provide a large R/R opportunity, unless Stop Losses are too close to the Entry Point, which is dangerous, unprofitable due to high spreads, and the lot sizes need to be very small (unless you have margin).

On the other hand, when Spreads are high, the Swing Trading dilutes its negative impact. The second strategy requires more expertise, but some people do well with it, and I have seen Win Rates above 90% with low R/R. In conclusion, both strategies have their pros and cons, in the end the choice is just yours.

As usual, details are provided in the Manual that you can download from the link provided in the first post.

Our offering for Free Life Time Licenses will expire at the end of this month, i.e. 31st October.

I would like some people to provide intelligent feedback but if it is not possible, I will regret but will not fall in tears for that. I am presenting a consistent product, different than the usual but effective. It is definitely not snake oil.

Next week I will elaborate on other features of AWTT and will digress on Strategy and Risk Management.

Have a great weekend, traders!

Another very useful table from AWTT is the Symbol Specifications.

It does not show every property of the contract, but it shows those that are most relevant for the Trader decision making process.

Within the MetaTrader platform, you can see some properties of the contract for any particular instrument at a time. But AWTT allows us to compare properties for all contracts and also allows us to spot errors.

We can compare, for example, the Spread across all the instruments in a percentage way. This is more useful than comparing by absolute value. For example, if at a given time, the Spread for XAGUSD is 10 points and the spread for BTCUSD is 900 points we may tend to believe that the Spread for XAGUSD is much better, but it is not. The spread for XAGUSD is 0.0429% and the spread for BTCUSD is 0.0053%.

And with AWTT we can also spot some errors on the specifications, as mentioned in the Manual.

This is a snapshot of the Symbol Specifications table:

Today I will dissert a bit about Risk Management and Leverage.

Unlike what most people believe, with proper Risk Management does not matter the amount of Leverage your broker provides.

Leverage is not even considered in any risk calculation, not only on our Risk Calculators but also on any other risk calculator you can find.
I know, this is not intuitive!

Leverage is only important when you trade without Risk Management. Here, when prices are moving against you, there is an aggravated risk of a Margin Call.
This happens because with large Leverage, many traders open trades with larger lots, or open many simultaneous trades, or martingale (yes, the verb does not exist yet) the trades. This is the only reason, there is nothing bad with the Leverage itself. A large Leverage only invites to trade like a fool.

With proper Risk Management, you decide how much of your Equity you will risk on a given trade, so you will never lose more than that. For example, imagine that you are trading with a leverage of 1:100, and the equity is $100,000. This means that your unleveraged capital is $1000.
You decide to risk 1% per trade.
On a certain trade you lose, then your equity will become, $99,000. Your unleveraged capital will become $990. You have lost only $10 of your unleveraged funds.

Now, you may see the point. If you don't, or if you don't agree please tell me the reason and I will explain in another way.

To be consistently profitable in Trading, we need to have a long term Outlook Strategy.

Consistently does not mean to be able to win every Trade, this is literally impossible because the Market has many uncontrollable variables. Even with the help of super computer power running complex mathematical algorithms, that will be never possible, because there is a large dosage of price manipulation in the marketplace in order to comply with the agenda of Big Players.

Big players, can be either your Forex Broker, the Big Banks or even Government Agencies.

Consistently then, means to proceed in such a way that will turn the Odds in our favor.

When we talk about Odds we are talking about Probabilities.

Traders that make a living from Trading, day after day, month after month and year after need to be consistently profitable.

I know, great results can be achieved in the short term by trading like a fool. It can happen, winning the lottery can also happen. The point is, it does not generally happen and much more than 90% of traders lose, most of them will lose heavily.

Tomorrow I will elaborate on the Outlook Strategy.

I wish all of you a great day!

It has been demonstrated that it is possible to be consistently profitable in trading with different Outlook Strategies.

A strategy is defined as a plan of action to achieve a long-term overall aim.

I am defining an Outlook Strategy as a broad strategy. This is in the same sense that professional Poker players become consistently profitable. They have an Outlook Strategy, but they mostly achieve the results using differentiated tactics. They have flexibility.

Within Trading, some traders have a preference for long-term positions while others prefer daily trading. Some traders prefer chart indicators, others prefer naked charts, and even others rely on the so-called fundamental analysis.

Despite their different trading preferences, there are many cases of consistent profitability when they don't follow blindly their own preferences, when they have capabilities to adjust, i.e. when they have flexibility.

For example, traders that prefer chart indicators and rely exclusively on them are faded to fail. Indicators don't show the storyline, what happens behind the scenes, what manipulative actions are likely to be underway. We need to (attempt to) guess those, because the markets will always move in the direction where the Big Players can obtain Liquidity.

I will repeat the last few words, because I consider them fundamental: "the markets will always move in the direction where the Big Players can obtain Liquidity."

And that's it for today. Try to figure out good trades and have a great day!

I have finished my 3rd 14-day FTMO Challenge Trial with success.

Three trials, all ended in profit, two of them successfully passed. People know that these challenges are particularly difficult because not only there is a Profit Target to be attained but there are stringent Drawdown limitations as well.

BTW, I am not advertising FTMO in any way (and they don't need my advertising), I can be a fierce critic of them as well, as I can be a fierce critic of any other funding prop firms.

Once, I have a done a true FTMO challenge, I passed it, but then failed the Verification stage, a real shame, and became somewhat frustrated.

Making a long story short, I still prefer regular live accounts with brokers of good reputation.

This is the outcome of my 3rd 14-day FTMO Challenge Trial:


you can check its story in my Profile.

This weeks' Blog ends here. I will come back next Monday with more thoughts. Have a great weekend, Traders.