My Own Story
A few years ago, I was trading UK listed stocks. My ideas for individual trades came from browsing through stock trading forums where there was a handful of investors who, after sufficient due diligence, had become to trust their suggestions. Unfortunately, although these suggestions were sound and based on outstanding objective research, I felt they lacked something. My confidence was never sufficient enough to place large, account changing trades on these ideas alone.
On one such stock trade for a company called X, I pondered for longer than usual how I could increase my confidence that the trade would work. Finally, after reading and digesting the large amounts of information company X posted online, I stumbled upon a metric that allowed me to view their results on a day to day basis. As some readers might be aware, generally, a company will publish results on a quarterly timescale. What I had stumbled across was a substantial informational advantage when compared to traditional research methods.
For this trade, I had to code up a web scraper in Python, then tabulate the data for review. The trade on company X was a growth play, and being able to confirm growth daily allowed me to position well in advance of other players.
The Education of a Poker Player Herbert O, Yardley
'Kid,' Monty said, 'that was a smart call you made last night and even a smarter raise. Now I'm not dumb enough to believe you engineered those two plays just on your own judgement, I know I did something that tipped my hand. I don't ask what it was but I'll think twice before betting you again.'
I was now at ease. I said, 'I told you you wiggled your ears.' That's good enough for me. How would you like to work for me? Loggy Flick, one of my housemen, is quitting. He's cost me too much money. He plays a poor game of poker and I think he steals from me. When he's running the game he cuts every pot fifty cents, which runs into about ten dollars an hour. He can easily steal two dollars an hour from me without my knowing it. After school and up to bedtime when I'm not playing I'd want you to cut the pots. You can play at the same time you cut.'
Monty paused, and when I said nothing, continued. 'I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll back you up to two hundred dollars and you give me one half of what you win. I'll stand the losses if any. You keep one half of the cut. Is that fair?'
'More than fair,' I said. 'But I couldn't let you back me unless I knew more about the game. I'll cut the pot for twenty-five per cent of the cut and will back myself if you will give me lessons in play. When you think I am good enough to risk your money I'll accept your offer.'
'It's a deal, kid,' he said, shaking hands.
'Monty, I want to tell you how I knew you were bluffing,'I said.
'That's your secret, kid.'
'No, I want to tell you. After all, if I’m an apt student we will be partners.' I paused to frame my words. 'Monty, you are left-handed and ordinarily hold your cards in your right hand and bet with your left. Under stress you switch your cards to your left hand and bet with your right. That's how I knew.'
'Well, I'll be a son-of-a-bitch,' he said, and got as red as a beet. 'And you changed seats just to get on my left so that when I raised the shoe drummer you could back in and draw one card. You'll do. You make some bad plays but I can correct that. By the way, what did you have when you drew one card?'
'The same as you - nothing. That's the reason I had to raise.'
'Well, I'll be a son-of-a-bitch!'
Escape competition through authenticity by Naval Ravikant
The internet enables any niche interest, as long as you’re the best at it to scale out. And the great news is because every human is different, everyone is the best at something. Being themselves.
Another tweet I had that is worth kind of weaving in, but didn’t go into this tweetstorm, was a very simple one. I like things when I can compress them down because they’re easy to remember, and easy to hook onto. But that one was, “Escape competition through authenticity.” Basically, when you’re competing with people it’s because you’re copying them. It’s because you’re trying to do the same thing. But every human is different. Don’t copy.
I know we’re mimetic creatures, and René Girard has a whole mimesis theory. But it’s much easier than that. Don’t imitate. Don’t copy. Just do your own thing. No one can compete with you on being you. It’s that simple.
And so the more authentic you are to who you are, and what you love to do, the less competition you’re gonna have. So, you can escape competition through authenticity when you realize that no one can compete with you on being you. And normally that would have been useless advice pre-internet. Post-internet you can turn that into a career.
The Tao Jones Averages: A Guide to Whole-Brained Investing by Bennet W Goodspeed
An example of the integration of inference and decision-making is the "Case of the Saudi Box." A small article that appeared on the second page of the Wall Street Journal in October 1979 stated that without warning the Saudis suddenly had changed their shipping requirements on all incoming containerized freight. Conventional containers, which measured forty feet and contained two doors, were now required to be scaled back to just twenty feet and had to have four doors. Not only that, but the Saudis went from inspecting 20 percent of the incoming containers to 100 percent.
Because the Saudis were taking such dramatic action, they had to be worried about illegal arms shipments, and therefore about the security of their country. One professional investor took this piece of intelligence and mulled it over. He realized that if the Saudis were that concerned, they would switch part of their vast wealth into gold. Following this insight with "design planning" (whether to buy coins, gold mining stocks, or bullion), he decided to buy bullion and bought a sizable holding at $372 per ounce. Six weeks later the Grand Mosque in Mecca was seized by rebels in a revolution attempt that nearly succeeded. What happened happened to the price of gold? Within three months it soared from $372 to $610 per ounce.
A few years ago, I was trading UK listed stocks. My ideas for individual trades came from browsing through stock trading forums where there was a handful of investors who, after sufficient due diligence, had become to trust their suggestions. Unfortunately, although these suggestions were sound and based on outstanding objective research, I felt they lacked something. My confidence was never sufficient enough to place large, account changing trades on these ideas alone.
On one such stock trade for a company called X, I pondered for longer than usual how I could increase my confidence that the trade would work. Finally, after reading and digesting the large amounts of information company X posted online, I stumbled upon a metric that allowed me to view their results on a day to day basis. As some readers might be aware, generally, a company will publish results on a quarterly timescale. What I had stumbled across was a substantial informational advantage when compared to traditional research methods.
For this trade, I had to code up a web scraper in Python, then tabulate the data for review. The trade on company X was a growth play, and being able to confirm growth daily allowed me to position well in advance of other players.
The Education of a Poker Player Herbert O, Yardley
'Kid,' Monty said, 'that was a smart call you made last night and even a smarter raise. Now I'm not dumb enough to believe you engineered those two plays just on your own judgement, I know I did something that tipped my hand. I don't ask what it was but I'll think twice before betting you again.'
I was now at ease. I said, 'I told you you wiggled your ears.' That's good enough for me. How would you like to work for me? Loggy Flick, one of my housemen, is quitting. He's cost me too much money. He plays a poor game of poker and I think he steals from me. When he's running the game he cuts every pot fifty cents, which runs into about ten dollars an hour. He can easily steal two dollars an hour from me without my knowing it. After school and up to bedtime when I'm not playing I'd want you to cut the pots. You can play at the same time you cut.'
Monty paused, and when I said nothing, continued. 'I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll back you up to two hundred dollars and you give me one half of what you win. I'll stand the losses if any. You keep one half of the cut. Is that fair?'
'More than fair,' I said. 'But I couldn't let you back me unless I knew more about the game. I'll cut the pot for twenty-five per cent of the cut and will back myself if you will give me lessons in play. When you think I am good enough to risk your money I'll accept your offer.'
'It's a deal, kid,' he said, shaking hands.
'Monty, I want to tell you how I knew you were bluffing,'I said.
'That's your secret, kid.'
'No, I want to tell you. After all, if I’m an apt student we will be partners.' I paused to frame my words. 'Monty, you are left-handed and ordinarily hold your cards in your right hand and bet with your left. Under stress you switch your cards to your left hand and bet with your right. That's how I knew.'
'Well, I'll be a son-of-a-bitch,' he said, and got as red as a beet. 'And you changed seats just to get on my left so that when I raised the shoe drummer you could back in and draw one card. You'll do. You make some bad plays but I can correct that. By the way, what did you have when you drew one card?'
'The same as you - nothing. That's the reason I had to raise.'
'Well, I'll be a son-of-a-bitch!'
Escape competition through authenticity by Naval Ravikant
The internet enables any niche interest, as long as you’re the best at it to scale out. And the great news is because every human is different, everyone is the best at something. Being themselves.
Another tweet I had that is worth kind of weaving in, but didn’t go into this tweetstorm, was a very simple one. I like things when I can compress them down because they’re easy to remember, and easy to hook onto. But that one was, “Escape competition through authenticity.” Basically, when you’re competing with people it’s because you’re copying them. It’s because you’re trying to do the same thing. But every human is different. Don’t copy.
I know we’re mimetic creatures, and René Girard has a whole mimesis theory. But it’s much easier than that. Don’t imitate. Don’t copy. Just do your own thing. No one can compete with you on being you. It’s that simple.
And so the more authentic you are to who you are, and what you love to do, the less competition you’re gonna have. So, you can escape competition through authenticity when you realize that no one can compete with you on being you. And normally that would have been useless advice pre-internet. Post-internet you can turn that into a career.
The Tao Jones Averages: A Guide to Whole-Brained Investing by Bennet W Goodspeed
An example of the integration of inference and decision-making is the "Case of the Saudi Box." A small article that appeared on the second page of the Wall Street Journal in October 1979 stated that without warning the Saudis suddenly had changed their shipping requirements on all incoming containerized freight. Conventional containers, which measured forty feet and contained two doors, were now required to be scaled back to just twenty feet and had to have four doors. Not only that, but the Saudis went from inspecting 20 percent of the incoming containers to 100 percent.
Because the Saudis were taking such dramatic action, they had to be worried about illegal arms shipments, and therefore about the security of their country. One professional investor took this piece of intelligence and mulled it over. He realized that if the Saudis were that concerned, they would switch part of their vast wealth into gold. Following this insight with "design planning" (whether to buy coins, gold mining stocks, or bullion), he decided to buy bullion and bought a sizable holding at $372 per ounce. Six weeks later the Grand Mosque in Mecca was seized by rebels in a revolution attempt that nearly succeeded. What happened happened to the price of gold? Within three months it soared from $372 to $610 per ounce.
