DAX Futures December 2021

Projections for yesterdays' inside bar. Calculated as +/-100% of the IB range. Note how nicely the targets fit into the current market context.

I use a custom indicator for drawing but you can easily use the built-in fibonacci tool with the following settings:

6 additionals triggered from 303 to 283, so I have now 9 FDXS 305,5, REDUCING NOW AT 315/317 FROM 9 TO 3

285/287 NOW ADDED 3 fdxs

+10 p x 6FDXS=+60 p FDXS=+12 pips FDXM

I hold now 6 FDXS 295,5.

312 and 313 right now reduced 50%

+17 p x 3 FDXS=+51 p FDXS=+10 pips FDXM

I HAVE NOW ONLY 3 FDXS 295,5.
+82 pips FDXM gained so far today.

NO SURRENDER here, ever!!!

Please make more clear your words on your post. you know I'm getting older........
Thanks in advance.

DAX FUTURES prices must break up 320 zone = 340 zone for DAX CASH INDEX prices.

Otherwise heavy downside trend on going!

316 now closed 1 FDXS 295,5

+20 p FDXS=+4 pips FDXM

I have now only 2 FDXS 295,5.

Last tuesday low, slight above 200 could be retested if downside pressure will remain after US official open. We'll see....

272 AND 273 NOW ADDED 2 fdxs

I HAVE NOW 4 fdxs 284.

293 REDUCED NOW FROM 4 TO 2 MY fdxs 284

+9 p x 2 FDXS=+18 p FDXS=+3,5 pips FDXM

I have now 2 FDXS 284.

Inside bar projections are the base of an old floor trader model (I think from the 90s or even older). They work on hourly, daily, weekly and even monthly charts. Since the advent of mass-retail FX 15 years ago the reliability of H1 projections degraded. There is simply too much manipulation going on.

The idea is as follows: IBs are a rare event and can be interpreted as indecision. The market didn't had enough power to overcome the previous period's boundaries. In general it prefers to continue a trend and break the former period's high/low (statistics: IBs happen on less than 10% of all observations). Now with an IB the market doesn't yet know where the journey continues (similar to contraction of a Bollinger band). If it finally makes a decision there's enough "energy" for a strong move. This move can be calculated.

The floor trader model: Buy/Sell 2 units when the IB range is broken, put your SL on the other side of the IB. Take one unit off the table after a 100% move. Move the SL of the remaining unit to BE. Trail it to catch larger moves.
This model is reasonable easy and can be calculated by head (no computers needed). It's based only on price and breakouts. That's why it worked in the first place and still works "to some degree".

Either way I wouldn't try to trade it. But market makers still use it for collection of stops and defining profit targets for their books. It works like so: Trigger an entry signal on one side of the IB so people are piling into positions. Take the opposite position and move the market to the other side of the IB, knowing that everyone has the stops there. Collect the stops and continue in the original direction for the 100% everyone was waiting for. Would be the same distance and pain level as one regular stop.

How can we use this? I wrote before that those 100% levels act like magnets to price, once the market decided for a direction. If a trader is in a position (no matter where he started) and the market starts moving away from the IB he can hold on to his position until one of the levels is reached. It's a reliable profit target. Neither does the model say which direction the market will decide for, nor does the model say whether the move will stop at such a level and reverse, or not.

Another aspect of having those 2 levels in front of you is the effect on your bias. It tells you: Take care with your position. If you are wrong a large move in the opposite direction is in the cards. Don't base your luck on hope...

Hopefully what I wrote makes sense to somebody.

247 NOW ADDED 3 fdxs

233 added 3 FDXS now